Hey everyone,

It's been a while, but I'm back in the action!

After a long break I've set myself an ambitious challenge – grinding from NL200 all the way up to the big league (NL5K+).

Quick backstory: I play since many years (recreationally most of the time) and I was around breakeven up to NL100/NL200. However, my attempt at higher stakes proved to be a complete disaster, but that's all in the past. So after a long break I spend the last couple of months working on my game off-tables, learning completely new strategies.

Some of my old graphs:




The data here isn't comprehensive; I should have over 2 million hands total (maybe 3m+ ). Anyway, overall I'm probably around breakeven at NL100/200, but I've taken some significant losses at higher stakes, not just because of poor skills, but also due to some HU matches against solid regs and lack of mentality. Overall, I estimate I'm down around 5-10bb/100 at NL500+ when considering all hands played. This is just one of many reasons why I'm starting this thread: to stick within my bankroll, play exclusively 6-max, and keep a detailed journal of my progress.

I've already done a bit of a warm-up over the past few weeks , just to get a feel of the games. Well, while I've still got a long way to go, I'm feeling confident about the road ahead. I've given some challenges a shot before, but I didn't manage to see them through to the end. Mainly, it was because I lacked the necessary skills and mindset. However, I'm optimistic that this time will be different.

The plan is simple: I'll follow a kind of aggressive roll management, 20-30 buy ins with 5bi shots. I'll play 6-max reg cash tables only, 4-6 tables, for 20-25 hours a week, plus I'll dedicate at least 10-15 hours a week to off-table work.

My goal? NL1K by the end of the year and NL2K+ by 2025. For now, I'll keep my nicknames anonymous.

BANKROLL:

NL200 -> 20 buy-ins ($4,000)
NL500 -> 20 buy-ins ($10,000)
NL1000 -> 25 buy-ins ($25,000)
NL2000 -> 25 buy-ins ($50,000)
NL5000 -> 30 buy-ins ($150,000)

* When down -5 buy-ins, I'll drop back down in stakes. And I'll only move up once I've hit the required profit (no bonuses or rakeback).

So today, I start with a $4K roll at NL200. Once I reach the $6K profit (+30 bi), i'll shoot NL500 or if I lose $1K (-5 bi), i'll step down to NL100. I'll be playing on the major networks: party, ipoker and pokerstars. And as I get higher (over NL1K) and need more high-stakes action, I'll add ggpoker.

I'll try to provide regular updates, at least 3-4 times a week, but possibly even daily.

It's gonna be a ride. Stay tuned for updates.

See you at the tables!

Hey everyone,

Over the weekend, I ended up playing about 24-25 hours over 2-3 days, which is more than I planned for the entire week (and obv what was reasonable). I got really into it and didn't leave much time for off-table work. But going forward, I'll make sure to balance my time better.

During those long sessions, fatigue kicked in, leading to some questionable decisions. So, I'm getting back to my regular routine - 20-25h play/week, short sessions, 4-6 tables.



As I won't be putting in as much volume, I'll share updates 2-3 times a week. See you at the tables!

Nice work man. It is definitely a balancing act. It's a game where the variance is evened out over volume but only if that is productive volume. Definitely something I need to work on as well. Keep going, you've got this!

It's been a week since I kicked off this challenge and while I haven't put in a ton of volume since my last post, everything is going as planned. I've been playing for a few hours a day, and dedicating 1-2 hours/day to off-table work. Anyway, nothing too exciting happened over the past few days, so I’m hoping to have more interesting updates to share with you next time.

Week 1 results

Hey guys,

Quick update! It's been 2 weeks since the start of the challenge, and things are going pretty well. I've had a solid run since the beginning, including the warm-up period, so I'm expecting some tougher weeks ahead. But honestly, I'm looking forward to facing the downswing so I can test my mentality and resilience, and see how it affects my game, especially after the long break.

Right now, I'm up 27-28bi (+$5,5K, +15bb/100, 11.5bb EV), so just 2-3 more buy-ins and I'll be taking shoots at NL500. Hopefully, by the next update, I'll be there

Week 2 results




Cheers!

Awesome results man, congratulations!

After today's session, I've hit my target #1 - $6K profit at NL200 (30 buy-ins), so it's time to take a shot at NL500. I'll stick to a 5 buy-ins stop loss. Let's see how it goes!

Sharing some stats below. Pretty happy with the results from the blinds so far.





Cheers!

I don't know what your financial situation is but my opinion is that your bankroll management is v. aggressive for someone with a lower winrate historically.

Your BRM considerations should include:
- Your financial situation and if you have any expenses or dependents
- Your general appetite for risk and ability to rebound when things don't go your way
- Your winrate and playstyle (how aggressive you are) which will affect your net "variance" (these are the 2 primary inputs for variance calculator)


Another thing I would comment on is your volume - while its great to have played millions of hands, its quality that matters as you move up, consider cutting tables to focus more on the dynamics of the table so you can adjust to maximise your WR and increase the chances of successfully shotting.

Good luck!

Thanks for the feedback!

As I mentioned before, I took a long break from poker and spent that time off-tables working on my game, so I expect my winrate to be higher now. I'm still far from where I want my game to be, but I believe I can make significant improvements over the next months as I grind my way up to higher stakes.

Right now, I'm not putting in the volume. I usually play 4 tables, sometimes up to 5-6, with careful table selection. I'm comfortable playing with 20-30 buy-ins and can maintain my A-game without feeling pressured or so.

That said, I need to make some adjustments after my shot at 500NL FAILED! I was playing 2-4 tables at NL500 with very juicy games, but things didn't go as planned. I lost a few big hands in a very short period, so on the go I decided to deviate from the initial plan and extend the stop loss to 8-10 buy-ins (instead of the initial 5 buy-ins), because I didn't feel frustrated and stayed focused on my game. Well, I ended up losing 10+ bi in just 500-600 hands...

So, adjustments to the initial plan need to be made. Moving forward, I'll take another shot at NL500 with 25 buy-ins instead of 20 and implement a 5-6 buy-in stop loss (spread over 2 sessions, with a 3 buy-ins max stop loss per session). Considering the 2.5x step from NL200 to NL500, I'll likely take a shot with even fewer buy-ins next time (like 4-5), because it takes longer to rebuild.

For now, I'm back to NL200 (currently at my initial bankroll after losing those 10 buy-ins at NL500), so I'll need to make an $8.5K profit at NL200 ($12.5K roll) before taking another shot at NL500. This time, I'll strictly follow the stop loss, no matter how juicy the tables are

Btw, as I'm currently at a $4K roll, I'll treat this as a shot. If I lose 5-7 buy-ins at NL200, I'll move down to NL100 until I rebuild.

I'll update my initial post to reflect these changes to my bankroll and stop loss strategy.

Sharing some graphs below.

Gl in your grind!
And I listened to this podcast today and found it useful (only 20 min), might give new perspective about BRM to you as well.

Okay, time for the next update. I haven't been grinding much lately since moving down to NL200, just about 6K hands. I've been mixing in some tournaments with my cash games, so my volume and results haven't been great.

Anyway, starting this week i'll be putting in more volume and focusing solely on cash games, so more regular updates to come. Btw i'm thinking of setting a specific time frames for completing each stake to keep myself motivated and give me some clear targets to chase.

Sharing some screenshots below from last week and overall results.

WEEK #3

Oookay, we're now 4 weeks into the challenge. Started with a $4K roll at 200NL, made a 30 buy-ins profit for 2-3 weks ($6K usd), and took a shot at 500NL but fail ... and went back to 200NL to rebuild.

I'm still running bad ... currently ~8-9bb under EV and ~15 buy-ins under EV over 15K hands. Not a big surprise, really, as I ran good last month and expected this kind of variance to hit. I actually think it might continue for another 5-10K hands or so.

Since moving back to 200NL, I've lost about $1K over 15K hands. I considered my return to 200NL as a shot with my initial $4K bankroll. Now, having lost 5 buy-ins at 200NL, my current bankroll is around $3K, so I'll be dropping down to 100NL until I rebuild to $4K.

Hope to have some good news to share soon and get back on the winning streak!

Check out the results for week #4 and overall results so far.

Sorry to hear that the shot takes haven't gone as planned but I respect the honesty and willingness to share the downs as well as the ups. Aggressive BRM is definitely a double-edged sword.

A rough session like that would affect anybody. But remember that there's no point in setting a stop-loss if you don't actually stop when you've hit it so glad you're going to stick to that in the future.

I'm sure once you're crushing in 100NL you will definitely feel a lot better. Looking forward to seeing the next update and wishing you the best of luck on the tables.

I wish you best of luck, but this is God awful bankroll management. It makes sense at the micros, where edges are higher and there is less difference between stakes. With only 4k you should be barely playing nl100 (dependent on your prior results). I really would recommend not doing this, as the sites you are playing are quite tough. I play similar stakes as you (nl200-500 on gg) and even though I have had a high winrate I would never risk playing a stake where I only have 20 buy ins. You can easily lose 25%-40% of your bankroll in a day and it wouldn't even be an anonaly

When I first started poker the first couple months I ran up a 4k roll very quickly and busted it just as fast playing 200z. My ego made me not want to move down, hopefully you can make better decisions as I did

technically if you have the discipline to move down so you don’t bust the roll then 20 buy ins is just fine

fine by what metric? fine to regularly lose 20-25%,of your bankroll? imo, no one not even a buddhist monk could survive this bankroll strategy all the way to 5k with their mental health intact unless they ran like god.

Plus, OP is not an experienced pro, and likely not a top reg in his pool (at the moment).

Case in point - in the span of a few weeks he moved up to 500, down to 200, down to 100, these type of swings are not healthy. If he just started with 100nl from the very beginning he would likely not be down 25% of his roll. Hopefully I don't come across as a dickhead by saying this, as clearly OP is a hardworking/dedicated poker player with potential to play high stakes, but there are other parts of the game, and preserving longevity at this point I believe is the most crucial. Right about the 200nl point is one of the hardest jumps for people just because you start playing real professionals and the mindset required is much different. I'm rooting for you OP.

I assume he is talking about a Kelly strategy. In theory, if you have a winrate of >5bb/100, then 20 buy-ins is close to optimal.
But that is based on the assumption that we know we are a solid winner on the next stake.

As a human I agree that 20 buy-ins is probably too aggressive, unless you've got another source of income and can easily replenish your bankroll.

Gj keep it up I really enjoy this blog!
I just want to say that this doesn't make sense you can't predict future variance. Just because you ran good in the past doesn't mean you then are more likely to run bad in the future (or vice versa). While it's true that with an increasing sample your WR will approach your EV the way this happens is simply that as the sample increases the past results will not matter much. Let's say you have run 10 bb/100 for 10K hands (10 BI profit) but your EV is actually 2 BB/100 (2 BI profit), the next 10K hands you play we expect you to run at EV meaning that once your sample is at 20K your expected w/r given that you have already won 10 BI is 6 BB /100 (10 BI+2BI=12BI=1200BB, 1200BB/(20000 hands *100)=6 bb/100). Over the next 40K hands (50K sample total) your expected w/r will be 3,6 bb/100 (1800bb/(50000*100) ).
As you see your actual WR approaches the EV with an increasing sample size, but not because the "universe evens things out by making you run bad after a good run" your future variance is completely independent of the past.

the only important point is that 99% of players can't handle the mental beatdown of having to move down.

Hey hey,

It's been a while since my last post. Awesome to see some movement in the thread! Glad to have you all here... thought I’d be talking to myself till the end.

Thanks for the feedback! I see most of the comments are about bankroll management and variance, so i’ll tackle those one by one.

Yeah, my roll might seem kind of aggressive, which is why I've made some small adjustments to the initial plan, as mentioned before. Moving forward, i’ll be taking shots at NL500 with 25 bi instead of 20, and a stop loss of 5-6 bi (preferably spread over 2 sessions, unless the games are exceptionally juicy). For NL1K and higher, i’ll maintain a 30 buy-in roll with a 4-5 buy-in stop loss.

I’m on the same page. If you have the discipline to move down, 25-30 buy-ins should be enough to never go bust. I feel fine playing with such an aggressive roll. I can maintain my A-game most of the time, so if I stick to the plan and follow the stop loss of 5-6 bi, I should do just fine and be able to complete the challenge (assuming I have all the other necessary skills, obv).

Well, let's get back to reality... as a human being, I wasn’t able to follow the stop loss during my first shot at NL500, so hopefully this won't happen again. Because I lost 11 bi instead of the planned 5-6 bi (and considering the 2.5x step in stakes), I dropped back to my initial roll of $4K USD and soon after that had to move down to NL100 (actually, mixing NL100 and NL200 due to lack of traffic). For the next shot, i’ll strictly follow the game plan, hoping I won't need to move down two stakes again (unless very bad variance hits).

I agree, my point wasn’t to predict variance. Obviously, this wasn’t a serious prediction, just some thoughts. But because I grind on PartyPoker only (not all the major networks I initially planned - Party, Stars, iPoker) and the action isn't split across multiple networks, I expected such variance to hit at some point for at least 10-15K+ hands.

Obviously, it's not the best approach to play just one network for NL200+, but I thought it was best to start in a networks without tracking software so I can focus on theory instead of stats. I also haven't used tracking software for a long time, which is another disadvantage. Coming off a long break, after spending some time off-tables studying, I wanted to test my skills against a tough pool. PartyPoker is known for having some of the toughest competition, so I wanted to see where I stand. Well, my game is definitely not where I want it to be, but I think it's better to play in some tough games while addressing and clearing up problematic areas in my game.

So I decided to play just Party until I get to NL1K (the lack of traffic at NL500 might lead to adding more rooms ... will see). I'll then add iPoker and Stars for NL1K and GG for NL2K+.

I’ll share some graphs later today.

Thanks again for the feedback. Let’s keep the discussion going!

I still think you underestimate the amount of variance that comes with playing mid-high stakes, 4k can be just a couple bad sessions. I guess you learn through the struggle though.

Best of luck. If you have discord or something feel free to reach out to me I'd be happy to talk/give some advice.

Huh, tough few weeks...

Despite the bad variance, I've also been playing poorly during the last 10-15K hands. I've felt the pressure of playing with such a short roll, and I've been demotivated and frustrated at times, way out of my A-game. On top of that, I've been in the red for the last 10 sessions, and it's obvious it's not just bad variance ... So, it's time for a break.

I'll be taking at least a few days off, probably a week or two, to get some much-needed rest. Then, I'll reconsider my plan and get back to the grind. Starting with 20 buy-ins was probably too aggressive. I think 25-30 buy-ins might be more reasonable, but even that can be very stressful. So, range of at least 35-40 buy-ins is likely preferable for a starting roll. I'll think this over during the break.

So far, I'm down about $4K overall, with a current roll of around $2.5K (thanks to rakeback and bonuses). The extra $2.5-3K from rakeback gave me some buffer to mix NL100-200, but now I don't have much room left. So, after the break, I'll need to stick to NL100 (possibly dropping to NL50, which would be a disaster) or reconsider my plan. I might top up my bankroll by $2-3K to have at least 30-35 buy-ins (as a starting roll for NL200 as I initially started with $4K). This way, I can take a 5-bi shots and move down with 50-60 buy-ins for the lower level, and I'll go down one more stake if I drop to 25-30 buy-ins (so I'll always have 50-60 buy-ins for the lower level, and in the worst-case scenario, I'll drop two stakes if things don't go my way).

This approach ensures that even when I take a shot at a new stake, I'll have 5 + 25-30 buy-ins before needing to drop two stakes. Playing with 20 buy-ins can easily result in dropping 2-3 stakes (and even more), which is very demotivating and mentally challenging.

Sharing some stats after week #6 below. Btw not sure why HEM shows sessions like that... almost all of them were mixed (NL200 and NL100), not just a single stake.





Cheers!

Hey guys,

Long time no see!

Here's a quick rundown of my journey so far: started at NL200, took a shot at NL500 but failed, down to NL200, then the swing continued and I had to go down to NL100 (mixing NL100 & NL200), and now i'm back to NL200, rebuilding for another shot at NL500. This has all happened over about two months since the beginning of the challenge.

After running bad lately and playing poorly, losing 12-13 sessions in a row, I took a 10-day break. Since one week i'm back to the grind, rebuilding my roll. After the break I was mixing NL100 and NL200 with a ~$3K roll, but I've managed to rebuild, and now my roll stands at ~$7,000 (plus rakeback and bonuses). I'm still down ~$1K overall due to a downswing combined with poor bankroll management while shooting NL500.

The results have been better after the much-needed rest, BUT i've been putting in volume over quality, playing around 20-25K hands in just a week. Long hours, long sessions, and too many tables ... definitely not my A-game.

I'll take another day or two off since I haven't had a break in over a week. Then, i'll get back to my regular schedule: playing ~4 tables, short sessions of up to 1.5 hours, and no more than 4-5 hours a day (leaving some space for studying as well). Hopefully, this will help me get back to my A-game.

As I mentioned before, some adjustments regarding bankroll management are needed. Playing with 20-25 buy-ins can easily lead to dropping 2-3 stakes, which is too stressful for me.

So for now, i'll shoot NL500 with 25 buy-ins and a 5 buy-in stop loss. Because of the 2.5x step in stakes, when I have 20 bi left for NL500 and go down to NL200, i'll actually have ~50 buy-ins roll, which is quite safe. I'll only shoot at higher stakes once I reach the bankroll by profit only (no rakeback and bonuses). So, with my initial roll at $4K and needing 25 buy-ins for shooting NL500, i'll have a try again once I reach $8.5K overall profit (currently at -$1K). I won't cash out any rakeback or profit until I reach NL500 and then i'll only cashout rakeback untill reaching NL1K so I can have a bigger buffer when things don't go my way and to reduce pressure.

So i'll shoot NL500 again once I reach $8.5K overall profit, and if I lose 5 buy-ins, i'll move down to NL200. If the downswing continues and my roll drops to 25bi for NL200, i'll go down another stake (to NL100 with 50 buy-ins). Actually, i'll probably mixing NL100 & NL200 (as I do now) due to the lack of traffic on partypoker. After reaching NL500 (or 1KNL), i'll add 2-3 more networks, but for now, I'm only grinding partypoker.

Once I get to 1KNL+, i'll increase my roll, shooting with 35 buy-ins and a 5 buy-in stop loss. If the shot fails and downswing continues, i'll move down another stake if I have 30 buy-ins left for the current stake. For example, i'll shoot NL1K with a $35K roll and a 5 buy-in stop loss, so if I drop to $30K, i'll go down to NL500 and if the downswing continue and have 30 buy-ins left for NL500, i'll drop to NL200. This 35 buy-in roll and 5 buy-in shots will apply for all stakes from NL1K+ (I might reduce the shots to 3-4 buy-ins for higher stakes, but I'll think about it later).

Sharing some stats/graphs below.

This month:



Overall:





Cheers!

Quick update. I haven't played in the last few days because, after a routine eye check-up, it turned out I needed to undergo laser treatment. So, I'll be taking it easy for the next 3-4 weeks. I'll take some rest and then try to work on my game while away from the tables.

Here's a look at my graphs so far this month and overall since the start of the challenge. Current roll ~$10K usd (plus rakeback and bonuses, so ~7K profit more to shoot NL500 again).

This month



Overall



See you all again soon!

Following, very interesting, GLGLGL!