All the cool kids pass 2nd time after they **** up a parallel park on the first test...

Sigh guess I m not cool

Pure panic man! I even flicked on the windscreen wipers to stop the rolling back hahaha

Not til I rostucko it. It's not so bad, down like 2k this year plus RB

Haha someone owed me some $, they shipped it on Stars and I had to pay some rake before withdrawing it. I made like $60 so f u!

Haha this is superb

I got parallel park too, the maneouvre itself wasn't toooooo bad but I got a serious fault. At the end the guy was explaining to me and said "you did the right thing by not stopping to let the old lady past, but do you remember the van that went past half way through?" I was like "wtf what van" and he just closed his eyes and sighed and went "exactly". I was like **** you Richard.

I guess not



Really struggling this month. Only played 2 sessions due to illness and wwsf is 41 so far (usually 48+). Gonna set a stoploss of 3bi per session from my peak and just grind thru it. Definitely not complaining, I'm a lucky son of a gun so can't complain when it gets a little bit rough



In the mean time I have been messing around with sports betting with some actual BRM. I'm gonna persevere with a 5% single bet strategy (I have 2 doubles in there but they are very rare) til I have a bigger sample but very open to advice on this as I'm fairly new. Definitely think this is profitable long term...



Good luck to alllllllllllllll the heroes during WCOOP, some of you are due a big bink, hopefully your time is now!!

EDIT - forgot to say I ordered a 2 for Tuesday today and one of the pizzas was wrong so they re-sent it and never took the wrong one back so I had a 3 for Tuesday!

Definitely no doubles. Extra variance for no increase in EV assuming that it's just the standard multiply the odds through.

Also, not trying to put a dampener, but honestly think it's almost impossible to be a winning 'feel' sports bettor. AFAIK most winning sports bettors just search for market inefficiencies by comparing with pinnacle or whatever, rather than try and work out what's actually +EV themselves.

EDIT; also when I was doing it through a program that does ^, edges were so tiny and variance so huge, you just gotta grind out massive volume. Was v rare to find any bet with >5% edge in.

Never really done sportsbetting but was kinda interested in it so did some research on it but yeah, PE is kinda correct but not quite.

There are many ways to sportsbet, some require more time invested than others, but it for sure is possible to beat it, just how the game is built. Site's don't set GTO lines as it isn't maxEV so that basically means it's beatable. But to get a lot of money from it is gonna be hard and the main problem is having big enough bankroll and being able to actually bet enough, as sites cap betting limits on winning accounts, so you need to do bunch of grey **** to be able to win a lot of money.

But few sportsbetting strats.

- Sure betting, finding flawed combination of odds on multiple sites that guarantee you a very small ROI. Need huge bankroll to make money with this, like 500k+ or so.

- Actually knowing the lines better than sportsbooks. Requires insane amount of work and studying of the games you bet on. Possible to win and probably even with a decent ROI, but requires ton and ton of studying.

- Studying the market, finding spots when guys, who use the previously mentioned strat, place their bets, and then act on some sportsbook before they fix their lines. Possible to make good money afaik, but need some good software/bots/algorithms to use this efficiently. Like a site that allows ppl to place big bets move their line and before other sites can react you bet before they are able to change the line.

- Math based approach. Find certain scenarios etc where sportsbook/market consistently misplaces lines and abusing that. Like for example market not understanding variance properly and always overvaluing teams that are on a winning streak or have been scoring ton of goals in span of like last 5 games. Heard that there was a group that used methods like this to beat the chinese sites, who everyone else copies, for a while, but eventually it got too marginal when sites/market catched on. Still probably possible to find good bets using this type of strat, but requires ton of studying and big BR, ROIs aren't too big.





All in all, at least I came to conclusion after doing some research that it's not worth my time. Not possible to make a lot of money without huge bankroll and without ton of time invested. Wouldn't suggest continuing with it unless you really enjoy it. Most likely you are breakeven/loser or in best case, marginal winner, where you make very little amount of money.

Yeah I assumed Gazzy was trying this ^, which is close to impossible without a model/ opta subscription imo, and then obviously not worth it unless you are playing huge bets

Really spending any time on sportsbetting is not going to be worth it. So many other things you could do with your time that are variance free, or significantly lower variance.

From betting on Boro v Swindon to Venezuela v Argentina, this just looks like pure punting to me. I watch a lot of football and wouldn't have a clue what to bet on for them games, Id be amazed if you make any money sports betting.

Yeah those are just pure punts, 0% chance any of the bets make any sort of ev in the long run. Sports betting is infinitely harder to beat than poker, don't waste your time and money. It takes insane amounts of research and finding good earlies in marginal sports to even have a shot. A market like the Premiership is just flat out unbeatable basically.

Don't make us #prayforop again

I work as a lines manager at a sportsbook (13years+)and tbf theres no money there, we are always happy when a new costumer sits there making 7-10 plays a day, cause 99.65% of them is going to be a loser. Never mind the ones playing parlays, reverses or w/e.

Now the ones we immediately boot are the ones playing a few props here or there, Like player props for example and most importantly making 1 or 2 mayyyybe 3 plays a day.

Soccer might be a different animal but lines will always be so jacked up that theres not going to be money in the long run.

Ive never liked the idea of betting for obvious reasons, but there was a site for bookies(the offshore forum) that had a contest for cappers, and there was a "system" I followed with 70%+ succes(small sample) in MLB if I remember correctly. It was fairly simple, just got the sheet of pinnacles opening lines and picked the lines where there was a more noticeable line change, for example, the total of atl started at 8-110 and it was now 8.5 over -120, if I was able to find an 8 anywhere I would take it. Or Cubs opening line was -115 and now was -150 Id take it. Theres a few variables to keep in mind ldo, but that was basically it

Thanks very much for the replies. To be honest the replies have just kinda confirmed what I thought: that it's extremely tough to beat. I'm gonna persevere with it for a little while longer though, but if the variance bites me in the back side I'll give it up and do it recreationally. Ideally I'd like some sort of wagering amount system as opposed to just 5% all the time, but I'm really unsure and unwilling to deviate right now. Just wanted to address this...

Unfortunately it's a bit of a meh time to start this, what with the international break. I watch a lot of football too, but by no means do I think that makes me an expert. All the games I've wagered on so far I've researched first. It's not a case of saying "oooh Peterborough United vs Swindon Town I think that sounds like a goalfest!". The research is actually pretty decent.

I'll keep going just now and update accordingly. Argentina and Mexico ****ed me last night, story of my life!

If you really want to keep up with it, even as a hobby, you should focus for more niche sports for obvious reasons.

English football, especially the Premier League, is absolutely beatable. Yes, there are many pros and syndicates but it's also where all the recreational money is (see your bets so far)

As far as an investment vehicle, your time would be better off spent studying and playing poker though imo.

Niche sports? Like horse racing etc? Tbh I don't think I could (or would want to) bet on anything other than football!

I definitely agree that the English market is beatable. Like I say I'll persevere with it just now, as it's not that much of an investment of time, takes like 5 mins before a game kicks off to look into it, and it's pretty enjoyable.

That's the last I'll say on the sports betting, but will update about it accordingly.

Selling 50% of $320 WCOOP HU tomorrow, no mu. 10% = $32 etc etc. Holla itt if you want any before shipping.

Edit - 40 left

Any data-analysis on just always blindly betting on underdogs/favourites? Could work no?

Also the draw odds on big archenemy matches could be of value.



#SICKBETTINGSTRAT

Lol inspired by #gazzybusto I'll also try some betting on the icehockey worldcup on this finnish betting site, by just trying to use basic advantage of certain mentalbiases.

Haha sports betting strategy itt = equivalent to poker strategy talk at the local 1/2 cardroom

Still rooting for you poker-wise tho Gazzy! Been lurkin this thread for ages

If you're serious about it, I say give it a shot. I would rather find out for myself what the true reality is, then have others shoot down my idea from the beginning. In fairness, I agree with a lot of the comments posted above, but I do think some of them are drastic. Who knows, you could be the exception.

Haha D

Spent few hours today doing some basic research on it and placed my first bet ever!!

WON MIRRIONS!!

Bet on draw on FIN-SWE match on this finnishbetting site and WON!!! D It's like the biggest rivalry ever between finland and sweden, so figured there has to be somevalue on betting on either SWE or draw, checked some odds and it looked like draw was a bit undervalued on the finnish site.

Might start doing this a bit more, not because I won lol, but because I kinda enjoyed studying something other than poker that I already do tons and tons and tons.

Yea, no offense but anybody who bets sports without an underlying model based on data is basically dead money. Ofc these models take personal evaluations into account (I think in this specific game x will likely happen because y and z...) but the weight given to these evaluations is usually very small (maybe 5%-10%). You're basically trying to forecast through data analysis. I'd imagine this is also super boring compared to poker as you're not "playing" a game but basically just grind out huge excel sheets.

Go for it though if you enjoy it, I mean recs can bink the sunday milly as well

The other way to beat it is having extensive knowledge of one league, watch basically every game, know all the players, know insiders who can give info on training performances etc. and then bet only this league and nothing else. Kinda hard to find more than 1-2 value bets per week then tho and probably not worth the effort unless you enjoy watching football all the time anyways (without drinking and fully focused on what's happening on the pitch, tactics, etc.).

I would like 10%, do I just transfer you via stars ?

This is amazingly wrong. Premier league is probably hardest thing to beat on the planet

Actually not sure how someone can sound so confident and be just as wrong at the same time.