Bena! It's an honor to have you here. Thank you for inspiring myself and I'm sure countless other players on this forum. You are a legend in our world and in other worlds I'm sure of it.

100k hands - 2022


Not quite 100k but close enough. Ngl, a part of me finds this sample a bit disappointing because I think I have a flawed relationship with the idea of winning and how it relates to the game of poker. In my mind I feel like I'm good enough to be winning 50, 60, 100 stacks every month and when I fail to reach these arbitrary numbers it can cause a bit of suffering for my ego which I realize is completely ridiculous and a useless mindset to have. I'm all for being competitive but not to the point where it leads to an unhealthy and delusional relationship with variance.

So the reality is that when it comes to dealing with winning and losing, I'm a work in progress. Although this sample was an extremely bumpy ride to get through when I take a step back and look at the bigger picture I feel proud of where I'm at and where I'm headed. I mentioned in my OP that I think I'm a 6bb/100 winner but the reality might be that I'm just a 4bb/100 winner and that means that I have some work to do to figure out how to add 1-2bb to my winrate. If it turns out that my ceiling is 4bb/100 then I think I could live with that.

LIFE
We caught a nice heat wave over the last week and I mowed my lawn for the first time in months. It's a big yard so it's a lot of work but I find it really peaceful to be out under the sun, sitting on the rider, airpods in my ears listening to a podcast or music while puffing on a nice Churchill cigar. It also gives me an excuse to stop being a recluse.

I took the time to visit my neighbor who I haven't seen since Thanksgiving because I basically holed myself up all winter and never left the house. It was nice to see him again and he was happy to see me. He's an older fella so we have kind of like a uncle/nephew or father/son relationship. I felt bad for disappearing out of his life like that but I'll admit I'm not the greatest when it comes to social activities. I'd rather just avoid it altogether but I realize there is some underlying sense of fear that makes me that way and I need to work on it.

My other neighbor was also out and about in his yard and we exchanged pleasantries. He is an even older fella, retired, old enough to be my grandfather. He told me to stop by sometime and I said I would take him up on that. Kind of unsure how to do that though. Do I just randomly pop up at his house one day? I could use some suggestions on this. I was thinking of rolling up on a nice sunny day with a 6-pk so we can just sit outside and shoot the sht. Not sure if bringing beer would be frowned upon though.

Anyways, I'm doing great volume wise this month so looking to keep that momentum going and post my biggest volume month in a long time. My volume has shifted to ~90% 200nl which is pretty damn cool now that I think about it. Looking to finish the month strong.

That's all I got for now.

100k hands is still too small to really know your exact w/r, but it's a good indicator you have a significant edge, but getting caught up on 4 vs 6 isnt worth the mental energy bc the difference between those is just variance a decent amount of the time over 100k hands.

I think when you have a significant edge you can recognize it while you're playing, whether you're winning or losing, s i wouldnt get caught up in comparing expectations with a 100k sample, 4bb also isnt bad at all but you prob win more anyway

I agree. I'm still wrapping my head around fluctuating winrates, volume, variance, probabilities and expectation and all of that stuff. I said 4bb because that is my average wr in my DB over a much larger sample.

That 70K breakeven stretch looks eerily familiar. I'm not gonna lie, the inability to tell what's caused by variance and what's my skill (or lake thereof) gets frustrating. Good job plowing through it!

It's pretty disgusting, even with relatively large winrates.


I know some crushers have 10bb+, but for mere mortals like myself who aim for 5 or so, some pretty disheartening **** can happen.


Here's the first 5 results of a 100k hand sample of a 5bb winner

I think i ran a bit bad with the sims tho bc you really shouldnt b/e 2/5 100k trials very often but w/e







Some other sticking points to remember are that every time you hit a new profit peak, the chances of you tapping 20bi below peak before returning to a new high is close to 30%.



Edit- the 4th one is actually 200k hands my bad

good luck mr peru

Your probability of a 20 bi downswing is always the same. Doesn´t matter if you´re reaching a peak or if you´re already on a big downswing, assuming no changes in winrates due to mental game, studying, competition getting better(worse) etc. Each new hand should be an entirely independent event.

Pokerdope says a 5 bb/100 (100 bb/100 std dev) will lose after 100.000 hands 5.6923% of the time.

The probability of you losing again for the next 100.000 hands remains at 5.6923% even if you have suffered the most nightmarishly possible downer for the first 100k.

Just how probabilities work. If it´s not like that, then the cards are not random and maybe the site is rigged.

my point was more of a mental game thing, bc ppl tend to anchor results at new all time highs. i dont think i ever implied anything along the lines of gamblers fallacy

@Kagome then I definitely agree with you

these graphs are hard to read given right and left axis are different

ty RTP

@Kagome Yeah it is pretty insane when you dive deep into variance simulators. I have done the primedope "therapy" too many times to count lol. It's definitely all mental.

I think the main reason poker players struggle with variance is because most of us are always trying to reach some level that we have created in our minds whether real or imaginary. Micro players want to move up to SS, SS want to move up to MS, MS to HS, the 1-2 rec just wants to win enough to pay for the casino trip, so on and so forth. It can make losing or a big downswing seem like a monumental setback.

At least it forces me to watch and read about stoicism and that type of philosophy and to do some really deep soul searching. I don't think I would do it otherwise

Thanks for answering my question earlier and yes, I get what you were meaning.
I think that’s definitely one of the next steps that I need to work on for sure. Defending a bit wider and better OOP.
You’ll catch the fire soon. Keep at it.

ty bro

And down the stretch they come...

A couple furlongs away from the finish line that is April. This is shaping up to be my highest volume month since last October. Pretty happy about it. Still some things I need to work on going forward. I've been slacking in other areas like study and fitness. I put in a decent study session today and as usual I have a lot that I can improve on. Nevertheless, I feel pretty excited with where my game is headed as long as I keep upgrading the areas where I lack and putting it into practice.

Some weekend hands for your entertainment:

Against tough LAG reg that holds over me constantly. Incorrectly thought he could turn some hands into a bluff but that is a big reach. Terrible river call.


Same reg
Turn size could be bigger. Another bad call maybe. Not sure.


TT fked again vs meh reg. Feel like I played it as best I could.


Very next hand. Same table.
Got called a bot afterwards. Compliment?



9 HIGH LIKE A BOSS





Not loving life after he raises turn but he's a fish so fk it


fk me, story of my life



Until next time!

in

Subbed

Will definitely follow gl gl

lfg son, not sure how I missed this one but you're awesome and I really hope you succeed.

I just started playing 200nl fully on GG again, the pools are certainly tough but I am really enjoying poker again.

FWIW, I think for the last hand getting AK in for 180bb is going to be losing overall, jamming is actually not much of a thing in SB's shoes and we are going to be severely behind too often.

Appreciate it bro thanks for the kind words right back at ya

Yeah I agree about the hand, thing was SB was pretty LAGGY playing 38/28/20 or something like that so 4b folding AKs felt like it would be a massive blunder but still not sure. Against population you are probably correct.

Update!....

"When I was 5 years old I realized there was a road,
at the end I would win lots of pots of gold..."

April
Graph


Results


I was able to surpass the volume goal I had set for myself by almost 10k hands so I'm pretty proud about that. Results wise, I should not complain about winning 3bb/100 but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a tad disappointed.

I think the disappointment mainly stems from how the last day of the month ended for me. I had done a great job of staying consistent with volume which means my mental game was on point and not quitting sessions early and what not. Yesterday I started the morning great by going over some hands with stable mate Liam and felt like I was primed and ready to grind and long story short, I got stacked on the very first hand, got stacked 2 more times for a total of 3x all within 30 minutes and I had my first rage quit session of the month.

I had planned on putting in at least 5k hands to close out the month and I could only manage 200 before I threw in the towel and wallowed in self pity for the rest of the day. Not being able to handle the variance and turtling up into a little ***** hurts more than the actual loss. It makes me feel like I'm some sort of mental midget that's never going to put it all together and make a real run at this or in anything. But then I realize that I need to be a little more compassionate with myself and allow myself to experience these frustrations without judgement.

It's okay to feel bad. It's okay to feel disappointed. It's okay to take a day off to recharge mentally and emotionally. We are human after all. What's not okay is letting that inner ***** inside your head change the narrative on who you are and what you want to become. (I'm speaking to myself btw, I'm no self help expert ) That voice wants you to live in fear because it's safer than testing your limits and challenging yourself. This is where true growth comes from, at least for me. It'd be nice to stop the growth process for a while though and just crush for 10bb and win every flip this month ngl

Anyways, I spent the day watching some of the draft, (My NY Jets may have just turned the franchise around for decades to come!) and binge watching the final season of Ozarks. Such a great show but the producers dropped the ball with last installment. Very underwhelming end to the show. Went from a top 5 show to more like bottom half of top 10.

After all that rest I woke up today feeling a bit unsure of myself still. I decided to take care of some accounting stuff that I was always push off to the last minute and to record a training style video for our CFP. After recording it and re-recording it 4-5x lol, I'm pretty happy with the end result. Hopefully the guys on the team will enjoy and get something out of it. I enjoyed doing it and it was a big step for me in trying to think outside the box when it comes to learning. It was a nice change from my usual M.O. of click through hands and stare at screen and talk to myself silently while looking at solver grids. Actually, that's what the video was except I was talking out loud lmao. Point being, I feel much better now and I'm ready to grab the sword and breastplate and get back out on the battlefield.

Going forward...

It's time to make some changes. My mental game is not quite as strong as I like to think and I was too focused on volume which lead to way too much of a sedentary lifestyle. I need to stop fkng around and start meditating every day. I'm just going to start with 5m/day and gradually increase. I'm on/off with meditation so I have had plenty of practice and have done longer but consistency is going to be the key here instead of hopping into Bryn Kenney meditation retreat levels right out the gate. Same with fitness. 20 minute HIIT routine. Prove to myself that I can do it for an entire month. Easier said than done but if I'm willing than I will find the time to do it. Bottom line.

Poker goals will stay generally the same. I need to up my study effort. There is always a ton of spots that I am unsure of in game that I can work on to improve. I slacked on study this month and I found the times that I did study I felt a sense of relief in learning something new, sometimes something I already knew but forgot, and being confident that when that spot comes up again that I will know how to handle it correctly.

PA weather has been sht lately but hopefully the old adage is true that April showers bring May flowers. We are looking forward to warmer days ahead.

That's all I got for now. GL to all the grinders in May. And much love to every and anyone in between.

Great stuff! Any monkey can learn the mechanics of how to play poker but without a solid mental approach it won't matter. Sounds like you are honest with yourself and have a plan which is more than many.

Here's to a great May!

A 40k volume month on a 4 table cap is really good if you're also putting in study/coaching hours.

Subbed.

GL brother. Go crush!

glglgl

Ah, with those stats can't really blame ya for getting it in. I'd do the same, just unlucky to run into it.

Gl with the mental game stuff. That's honestly the hardest thing for me in poker is just regulating my tilt and getting good volume in. It's a struggle but you have to push through it if you want to move up. In 3 yrs you'll be an endboss dw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Uc1-N8hwgg

Good video.

One thing I'll do when I'm not playing my best, in a downswing, or feel like I'm going to tilt is reduce the number of tables I play to 1 for a session or two.