That's why I'll always be grinding it out on my leather ass. I see all the angles, but don't have the stones to play one.



Congrats to BS's score, well deserved.

LULU has been a compelling short to me for awhile but I haven't attempted to play it at all yet. Hadn't looked at CROX's chart but, damn, that looks ripe too. I've also been looking for ways to play the auto-related stocks, XRT comes to mind but there's so little volume/OI in that.

How about NVDA? Feels like it's destined to see 200 or lower again to me.

Personally I've always been long NVDA I don't think they see sub 200 again. Even the puts I do have are just a short term play on likely pull backs. I close them between 10-20% profit though sometimes they move much more quickly which I'm fine with.

I haven't made any particularly significant moves however as the year winds down. Mostly paring down and reducing my exposure.

Hit 20% on my TSLA $1060 puts so closed out today. Barely even breached my strike when I closed IV must be high. Will likely run down some more but better to not be greedy.

Starting to pick up some PYPL, can always rely on the post earnings over reaction.

Curious to see if this multi-billion dollar push for semis in India will actually come to fruition. No one has seemed to be able to crack the nut on India, but it's a huge untapped market for everything.

RBLX seems like a great short candidate soon. Will see how it settles the next couple of weeks.

I agree 100%. I actually lost a bit on failed shorts against it in the past. Fortunately, I became so familiar with the stock through all that I became pretty convinced it would run hard on any kind of reasonable ER with the backdrop of all of this meta verse hype and a very long time consolidating in a narrow range. I hated myself for doing so at the time but I bought Jan 100c as a gamble at close right before their ER, ended up making 425% on that today, getting me all that money back and more.

Will be watching it and the broader market closely to know when to get back in shorts. Unfortunately, the premiums are still very high for the 65-80 strikes for six months to a year out. I think it'll be time to get back in when the narrative finally shifts to "these valuations are out of control."

I also think DDOG should be a good short candidate, and am unfortunately down pretty decently on an existing short, have been holding some 120p for June that are down 50%. DASH and U also seem like potentially good shorts (DASH running on ER as of the time I type this). Any thoughts on those?

Don't know a lot about DDOG will have to research them, I've only seen the ticker floating about but haven't had any interest to dig in.

DASH is trash and I think they are always a great spot after any run up.

I would be careful w/ U as they seem to have some decent potential, not to say there aren't always opportunities.

But yeah IV is running too high right now for me to enter anything so will be waiting.

The difficult thing is always the timing which is why I always tend to buy at least a year out even though they are more expensive. Because even if you know something is very inflated you don't know how long it can run irrationally. Just look at PTON I knew they were terrible from the jump but they ran for over a year.

Thanks for the thoughts. That approach seems best to me too in my shorter amount of time doing this. If I had bigger cajones, I would have made a fortune on longterm SFIX LMND PTON ARKK PRPL and ARKG shorts where I followed that approach, got out of all way too soon.

RBLX sure moved fast. If it starts pumping within this range and IV lowers a bit I'll likely enter. DASH is looking pretty good too.

What are you eyeing for strike/XP, if you don't mind? I've generally been targeting April-June 2022 or January 2023 with these kinds of plays.

For RBLX probably $95 or $100 for Jan 2023

DASH today I would just do $230. I typically like to do close to the money and about a year out and close them really early. My target exit for profit is 15-20% and that sometimes happens after a day even like on my last LULU I did. But typically I'll hold them for 2-6wks before they get closed.

My TSLA $1060 I held for about 3 wks before it hit my target.

Do you specialize in PUTS only or do you do calls as well? Your thread inspired me to learn all this stuff back in the spring. I did a deep dive for a month but went back to poker but I really loved the covered call strategy. I plan on getting back into trading after I get a mid 5fig-6fig roll. Anyways, thanks for the inspiration.

Just opened a position on DASH. So basically I just keep the position relatively small.

I mostly sell puts, some covered calls. I do buy both puts and calls, but much more sparingly. For calls I generally buy slightly itm and 2yrs out after something I like has pulled back. For puts I buy after I feel something has inflated irrationally for awhile and do atm for a year out. That way I'm not at the mercy of a move to happen very soon and gives me a lot of time to be right.

Rivian seems like it will be a good one too once the hype wears off. 105b marketcap already lol.

Appreciate the feedback and glad I'm not crazy re: DASH. The OI on that one makes me a little nervous; I haven't had great experiences with plays like that where the OI is very low although I probably haven't been as patient as I needed to be (usually when I want to unload something I want it gone RIGHT NOW).

I agree re: RIVN and I actually started a Lucid position yesterday, 25p for Jan 2023.

EDIT: Just followed you on DASH albeit I bought a 175p for Jan 2023.

Yeah OI is a consideration but more important for trades you're looking to do a quick in and out.

For these types of trades you basically have to be willing for them to go to 0.

If you get scared out of your position after 3 days because you're down 40% on it, then it's not going to work out well. You're going to keep closing out losers that eventually come back for a profit.

If you're willing to talk about it, what are your thoughts on the ROI of what you do? Especially after factoring in the time to learn and research. Do you mainly do it because you enjoy it or do you feel it gives you a greater return than passive investing and spending that time you are investing into it elsewhere?

Regarding ROI I've done quite well, but I was quite aggressive and very lucky early on and have been paring that back each year as I've grown since I have more to lose and preservation becomes more of a priority than growth.

So up til now I have beaten the S&P quite handily over the past decade or so but I don't suspect that to continue indefinitely as my strategy shifts over time to an entirely passive dividend collection.

I also do it for the enjoyment and it definitely gives me a greater return than passive investing. I've been doing this awhile so I actually don't spend that much time on it even though I am still active, but I'm not like a day trader sitting in front of my computer all day staring at a moving dot on the screen.

I probably spend about 30 min in the morning and 30 min at the end of the market day.

Sounds pretty sweet to me.
Think you might play the main yourself in the next couple years if Covid stuff calms down?

Yeah I've really been really itching to play the past 2 yrs. I feel like I could give it a good run for sure. But between not wanting to be in heavily crowded spaces the past year with a demographic known for generally less than optimal hygiene and trying to convince my wife to be on her own with the 2yr old for 2wks while I go off to Vegas to play poker it's been a hard sell.

The best I was going to be able to do this year was play the $2500 at Thunder Valley next month, but when I looked at the schedule the tournament goes from Sun thru Tuesday. Who the hell makes the schedule? Do they not want rec players to play?

Anyways they do have a $1k that goes Sat and Sun so maybe I can do that. It's still like a 3hr drive though so idk. I wish they would have more tourneys in the Bay Area but there's basically nothing outside of the shooting star in the spring.

Realistically 2023 will probably be the first shot I have to play the main.

how'd i just find this????

You probably had the plebs of Maine on your mind.

For what it’s worth, a 3 year old is infinitely easier to deal with than a 2 year old

This is actually a very reasonable take.

Spyu, do you know any people who could help with me out with rakeback on Iggy? Apparently you need an affiliate or something to get a decent rakeback % and I think I’m going to get some $ on there.