I’ve been waiting for this day to come.
Whatcha gonna dabble in?

how's the old folio looking?

Everything okay, Mr. Spy?

Hey Karamazonk, thanks for your concern. Everything is quite good pandemic aaside. I was just kind of tired of this place overall and just decided to stop reading/posting as it was just a net negative in doing so.

But since I left quite abruptly I guess I'll provide a final update and try to touch upon a variety of topics.

Covid: Wife and I have been fully vaxxed since May. Will be getting the boosters and everything offered after that. Both parents in 80s have also been vaxxed since April. No one is dead or has experienced any adverse effects.
My thoughts regarding the uprise of anti-vaxxers and conspiracy nuts. I don't actually care. It's just a minor culling of the ignorant and uneducated. One thing I do wish they would do is keep these people from taking up hospital resources. That's crap imo. You wanted your choice fine. You made it. Now deal with the consequences without impeding on the resources of those who did not make irresponsible/misinformed decisions.

Stocks and Portfolio: Nothing big to share. Just been doing the same thing I've always been doing. Biggest positions right now are AAPL and BABA.





Live Poker: Unfortunately no opportunities to play. I might try and play this $2500 WPT at Thunder Valley in December. I wanted to play the $1600 this past weekend, but my son is still too much to deal with solo for a full weekend.
Wanted to play WSOP as well, but I'll have to wait til he's a bit older.
If I can ever make it to LA I will definitely sit one of the big games at either LATB or Hustler. They look quite good. But I don't see any chances to do so until some time next year at the earliest.

Anyways for those of you that were cool hope all is well and stay safe!

Thanks for the update. Have wondered a few times how you’re keeping, so glad to read the above. I see that you hit the mythical 7 figure mark as well. Congrats and best wishes moving forward as always. Hope you randomly pop back these parts now and then.

Glad things are okay. Also glad to hear you're still bullish on BABA. I bought this dip pretty heavily and have a cost basis around 198 now. Fortunately have mostly stayed out of options on it for quite awhile but on the next big broad market pullback may start buying LEAPS when I think we're near the bottom.

Echoing the last couple comments. Glad you're doing well and finding success with your investments.

So you believe people who do not want to get the jab should be refused hospital treatment? Pretty bold statement, right or wrong. Dueing the heat of covid I had it for two months (never went to the hospital).. Im in my low 30s in reasonable shape w/ no underlying conditions.. I should be denied hospital treatment if I get a bad case of covid? Very extreme.

Thanks. Hope you're doing well.

Nice. Yeah I feel like it's my best risk/reward play. I started laddering in around $185. Current avg around $178. I plan to start laddering out around $240. The last time I ran a valuation on it I came up with a price of $275. That was with a pretty large CCP risk discount. I guess time will tell if the market ever agrees with me. Here's a snap shot of the bulk of my current positions:



Thank you hope you are well too.

Sup Spyu? Good to see you, hope life is treating you well!

Hey Squid things have been going quite well thanks and same to you!

I always thought you were anti baba, I remember one post where you said you would buy it at $80, which led me to believe you thought it wasn't a good buy at any price. I watch acquirers podcast and these guys are smart, always were against baba even though their hero Charlie munger had bought. Just saw a podcast with the main guy from acquirers analyzing it, so it seems it's getting interest from a lot of value investors. I went in for 200 shares back in May.

As far as vaccines, I don't think its completely fair to judge those who don't want it. I'm hearing a lot on the radio about people who had a family member with bad reactions to it and are hesitant. I got one shot and felt quite off for about 2 weeks, my wife too. I had to miss 2 days of work after not missing any for 2 years. I am worried about the second shot and can't afford to miss days at work right now.

It's not completely the same but the hospitals will treat people who are obese because they choose to over eat, overindulge in alcohol, smoking etc, all addictions, they are treated compassionately. Not hard drug addicts though, you get treated like crap, though they will still help you, I know from experience.

Yeah I have since relaxed my stance on this company. I think I was pricing in too big of a discount on the CCP risk and am of the opinion that this is one horse that they won't let die.

Ventured out today to play live cash for the first time in I think around 2.5 yrs. Decided to head to Bay 101. I got there around 10a.m. and they had two 2/3/5 games going with about 14 on the list. They started a new table after about 30 min which I joined shortly after it opened.

Bought in for the max which was $800.
Played for about 2hrs at this table up about $200 by the time they opened the 2/3/5/10 which you can buy in up to $3k.

Only hand of note from the first table was:

800 effective stacks.

PF: Hero opens A7 in EP to 20, V1 calls MP, V2 calls in CO.

Flop(70): 8 9 T

Hero bets $30, V1 calls, V2 raises to $100, hero calls, V1 back raises to $325, V2 shoves, hero shoves, V1 regrets raising and makes a crying call. V2 asks if I want to run it twice I say I always run it once. But I guess it didn’t matter anyways since dealer said you can't run it twice 3 handed.

V2 has Q J
V1 has 6 7

Turn: Q

River J

chop chop lol I'm running good.

I started the 2/3/5/10 game with a little over 2k and continued to run like Garrett Adelstein.

One orbit in I get K K in the SB.
Main villain is bb who has about 1200.

PF: Folds to button who makes it 35, hero 3bets to 125, Villain cold calls from bb, 3rd blind folds, button calls.

Flop(385): J T 5
Hero bets 125, Villain calls, button folds.

Turn(635): 8
Hero bets 250, Villain calls

River(1135): T
Hero bets 700, all in to villain who calls pretty quickly. mhig.

The cooler hand. V1 has 3k, V2 about 2k hero covers.

PF: V2 opens UTG to 35, Hero calls in CO with A T, V1 calls out of third blind.

Flop(115): 5 Q 3
V1 check, V2 bets 60, Hero calls, V1 calls

Turn(295): 7
V1 check, V2 bets 200, hero calls, V1 raises to 600, V2 calls, Hero calls

River(2095): K
V1 bets 1k, V2 folds, Hero shoves V1 snap calls and mucks his hand when I table. He obv had like Kdxd.

Only played 4hrs and ended up booking a 5k win for the session. Not bad for a first outing in quite awhile.

Might play another session or 2 over this week and next week and that will likely be all the poker I can spare time for the next while.

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hey spyu, nice to see you back in the live streets even if for just a session.

nice one, ez game

Hey RtP thanks! Yeah the comeback will be shortlived. I think one short session tonight at Oaks Card Room and then maybe one more sometime next week back at the Bay.

GL in Vegas I hope you crush it.

There was one more hand that I remembered I thought to post. Kind of surprised people are still doing this.

800 effective Villain is bb.

PF: UTG limps for $5, Hero nta raises to 20 with

6 6 folds to villain who calls UTG calls.

Flop(65): K 9 3
Checks to Hero who bets 25, Villain raises to 85, UTG folds, hero calls.
My take is that the avg player type at this level only has 99, 33, K9, K3s in this spot for value and might only take this line with K3, everything else calls or does something goofy like minraise. So this is always something like a weak K, 9x or something like A3, 34.

Turn(235): 7
Villain bets 125, Hero raises to 325, Villain thinks for about 20 seconds and folds.




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Just finished up a 4hr late night session at Oaks Card Room. First time. It was 2/3/5 can buy in for $1k.

It played pretty small. Probably one of the lowest variance butttery soft games I've played in awhile.

Booked a $1500 win and called it a night.

To give you a feeling of what the game was like here is a hand that I witnessed.

Effective stacks around $500.

PF: Player A opens utg for $50, folds to player B who calls on the button.

Flop(105): K 8 5
Player A bets $50, Player B goes all in for 400 on top.

Player A goes, "Are we allowed to take about our hands?" The dealer says do whatever you want. So Player A says, "So what do you have?"
Player B says, "I have AK." Player A says, "Well I have Aces I call."

Brick Brick. Player A wins with AA and Player B tables AK.



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Those games are in trouble if Spyu starts playing them regularly, nice wins out of the gate!

How weird is it to have $20 chips in a $10 big blind game? Seems really strange to me

Thanks man! Hope all is well with you.

Yeah the $20 chips are kind of weird in this game.

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Played my last live session yesterday at Bay 101. Since it was my last session and on limited time(4hrs) I just played the 2/3/5 as it would've been annoying to get stuck in a bigger game knowing I wouldn't have a chance to play again for quite awhile.

Booked a $300 win so nothing to write home about. But it's good considering my first 3 hands went like this:

1. Call an open with Ad7d. Flop A K 7r. Turn 9 and gii villain has AK.

2. Isolate pf short stack($300) and gii with 88 vs his KTo. Turns a K.

3. Have J9o and flop 7d 8c Td and lose vs T5.

Turn 7 River 7.

Not any particularly interesting hands but I guess I'll just post these 2.

Hero is 1k effective with villain. Kind of your average player at these stakes relatively straight forward.

PF: Straddle on, HJ limps, Hero raises to 40 with K:6: from CO
Villain in BB calls, HJ calls

Flop(150): A: T: J:
Checks to Hero who bets 60, only Villain calls.

Turn (270): T:
Villain leads 120, Hero raises to 350 Villain folds.

So easy spot in this set up for obvious reasons. (He never has a super strong hand when he flats out of the blind pf with limper to act behind i.e. no AK, JJ, even some KQs and TT are discounted) No CR on flop and weak turn lead are generally hands like A2-A9, QJ type hands from a typical player at these stakes. Or sometimes they called flop with middle or bottom pair and picked up equity on the turn. And my hand blocking all the Kx is a nice bonus to have.

PF: Straddle on. Hero opens to 40 UTG with A:A:, 5 callers(CO, Button, SB, BB, Straddle)

Flop(240): Q: J: Q:
Checks around

Turn(240): 6:
Checks to Straddle (1k effective) who bets 165,
Hero calls, Button tank calls(800 effective) rest fold.

River(570 2
Straddle checks, Hero checks Button checks. mhig.

I was debating between betting something like 180 and checking. Only person who could have a Q is the straddle and now it's clear he doesn't have it and Button was obviously on a draw. So decision is between trying to eek out value versus the Straddle who has Jx or worse or try to let button bluff. I opted with the latter as I was pretty sure straddle was folding very often.

Well it's nice to see that live poker is alive and well. Hasn't changed much in the past 15yrs from what I can tell.







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Checking second hand should be better option more often than not I think.
Another benefit of checking OTT is that straddle probably has a hand that calls button for the same reasons you mentioned. Straddle has Jx here all day here I assume. Some player types are just never bluffing as button though and that’s when it becomes better to just get the thin value yourself. Always hard to know until you see what the guy does a handful of times.
Cool to read your thought process in these hands.

Thanks I appreciate that!

Inspired by another recent thread I have made the decision to go to Vegas for the WSOP.

I am looking for a backer and will need around $50k. This money may or may not be used towards poker maybe even of the tournament variety if I feel up to it. The upside is that I most probably will use the money to at least play some poker.

So who's in? hmu.

U should def poast this up in the chat thread. They are not too bright and you may even get some takers!

Random thoughts:

To my surprise no takers on the WSOP staking opportunity.

I do wish luck to those playing tourneys this weekend. May you run like JJ Liu.

Housing prices around here remain insane. About $1.7 mil for your average SFH ~2200 sqft. and double that or more close to Cupertino/MTV. I can't wait for interest rates to show up again.

The market finally agreed with my opinion on PTON. I thought I was going crazy this past year and just admitted I was wrong, but I guess I was just early(which is the same thing.). I remember prior to their IPO I was thinking it was the dumbest business model and thought they would crash and burn instantly. But then fish on a heater for a year.

MRNA puts paid off quite well just closed them today. Whenever a stock has an insane run up with nothing but good news for awhile it's usually a decent time to bet on some downside. Planning to close my NFLX puts around $590 and TSLA when it gets back to under $1k. Still have 6 months left on those.
Might open CROX and LULU puts if they keep running up into Christmas.

INTC finally looking more stable. Maybe they can turn it around, will take some years before we find out. But that's what happens when you don't innovate. Pulling out of mobile was insane and then to follow up by letting an accountant run the company and here we are.

If I was a real man I would just put everything into a Shiba Inu NFT. But I choose to have fun staying poor.

Attempted a PR for my OHP for the first time since last year December. I hit 245 for a 5lb PR and I felt I had a little left. Since that one felt pretty good will revisit sometime in January to see if I can hit 250. Will be the most progress I've seen in the past few years.

A real man would have went all in on MANA and flew off into the sunset.