I'd say 93% spew, preflop especially

I lol'ed at this

Played a short session Wednesday night. Felt nice to put a win together after the last few losses


1/3 NLHE $300 cap, 0:15, +$148
5/T NLHE $2k cap, 1:00, +$716


Results to Date:
4/8 Limit O8, 0:10, +$34
1/3 NLHE, 0:55, -$114
2/5 NLHE, 12:25, +$1086
5/T HO, 1:00, +$1056
5/T NLHE, 6:05, +$266

22:05, +$2328, 14.3 bb /hr

Hand 0:

1/3 NLHE 10 handed

Hero is UTG with KK
Hero bets $15

MP1 calls $15
MP2 calls $15
LP BTN call $15

I just sat down at the table, so no in depth info about most of the villains. MP1 is a player I have played with before. He tries really hard to be a grinder... but as of the last time I played with him, he still hasn't put it together. He levels himself into stupid plays often. MP2 is middle aged white guy - no history - I am assuming ABC player by his vibe. LP is older white guy (40s) giving off fish vibes - loose passive I assume.

Flop (pot $60)
722

I lead out for $45
MP1 folds
MP2 calls
LP folds

MP2's range should be a lot of flush draws (45 possible, ~20 likely), no overpairs (I expect a flop raise), A7(12)/87s(3)/76s(3), A2s(2), 77(3), and 22(1).

So after his call - we have him on about 20 flush draws, 18 hands I beat, 6 hands that crush me.

Turn (pot $150)
722J

Hmm... this is a **** card obviously. Another heart is discovered so the total flush combos drop (9*8 / 2 = 36, maybe ~15 likely).. but still, more than half of his range is beating me now. I am not going to value bet, but I will check-call especially assuming most villains suck at bet sizing and I have some outs against a lot of that range.

I check
He thinks for ~20 seconds and checks

This is a pretty big tell. If he has any skill, I really don't rep hearts at all - so it is not like he is thinking about whether it is safe to bet into me... he is thinking about whether a bet is "too obvious" and would scare me. This actually makes me believe his range is weighted towards AX and 77 - hands that feel invulnerable here.

River (pot $150)
722J6

Well... no help on the river for me. I have a bluff catcher at best, but I don't give this villain many bluffs on the line he took - so a lot is going to depend on river sizing.

I check
V bets $135

Wow! Most villains have no clue on pot/bet sizing - this guy seems to know though. His line is not a bad play against most villains at 1/3... because they can't fold. However, there is almost no way I am good here. What 1/3 rec player lays down that big of a bluff on the river? If he had like A7, or 76... he is not going to bet that either - he probably checks behind.

I re-run action in my head for ~15 seconds and then lay it down.

Hand 1:

So I only played 1/3 for about 15 minutes, got called for 5/T - wanted to play my button on this last hand before racking up.

1/3 NLHE 10 handed
Table is mostly full of loose passive rec players.

EP V1 ($500) makes is $8 - wannabe grinder
EP V2 ($600) calls $8 - this is MP2 villain from Hand 0 above. Seems to be a decent player based on evidence from hand 0.
4 more callers

Hero ($300) is on BTN with 44

..soo a lot of player are happy to put $8 into a resulting $56 pot here with 44 OTB- and get to set mine, right? And that is a solid spot for sure. But the only thing is - the only person with a potential big pair here is V1.. and his $8 raise stinks I think - I believe it is a pot sweetener and it is more SC, lower PP, Axs, etc. These are the reasons I think V1 needs to improve as a poker player. I made it $15 UTG with my KK... and got called in 3 spots... It is 1/3... wtf would you raise $8 for UTG other than to build a massive pot where you act first and cannot range a single ****ing person...

So anyways - set "mining" is way overrated when you can't find a dance partner. And by the pre-flop action, I would need someone to flop a big draw or 2 pair to get money in with my set. That is possible, but so improbable - I would rather use the information at hand to win $50 pre-flop...

I make it $45 This table is never going to play back at this bet. I love this spot.

Out of the 6 villains in this hand - only V2 calls to see the flop I have position and his range is 66~TT and big Aces (we will say AQ+). So here is the range:

AK (16)
AQ (16)
66~TT (30)

Flop ($130)
A82

V2 checks.
Pretty damn good flop for me to continue the story.
I bet $85
V2 thinks and then calls.

Now his range at this point is almost pure AQ.. yeah - that might be a little narrow, but he lets go all PP, he should be fearless with AK.. meh.. I guess I leave the range at AK/AQ but I have to discount AK somewhat. I don't know what he will do on the turn. His range is capped... but damn whether he knows it or not - he should be committed.

Turn (pot $300)
A82T

V2 checks.
I check! I am fairly certain he is going to call my puny stack if I shove OTT. I am hoping for a miracle river.

River (pot $300)
A82T9

V2 checks !

..wow... ok - he is obviously scared. Spades arrived and my opinion of his skill is dropping rapidly. Reflecting - I think in hand 0 he indeed hit a monster and never had to look beyond his two cards. I am going to stab at this. Spades arrived... I can rep those... and when you have AQ/AK... every middle card hitting the board just feels like someone nailing that second pair you know that feeling, right?

I bet $150.. I left $20 behind on purpose. I want it to seem like a calculated value bet. (and I would honestly fold and save the $20 if he shoved)

He only debates for about 15 seconds and then folds hooray!!

The thing is, perhaps he is not good enough to know my stack. I only have $170 left.. but he has plenty more chips so maybe he doesn't realize the commitment of the flop call. It is tough to remember when you were a poker newb... but I remember when I started. There is so much is going on in a hand - that players can get 2 card tunnel vision. Such critical things as opponent stacks go unnoticed often. Even I will fess up - I rarely had the capacity to track such things in the hand when I first started playing.

He needs to decide OTF to fold or commit.

Anyways, just to **** with him, I show him 44 as I rack up the chips to head to 5/T... lol... poor guy - but ****ing with the newbs is +EV

Lol thats messed up bro.... but nh anyway. I def would have just went with setmining but I guess in my games I know ill get a dancer when its multiway like that. I'd often do this with my pretty 54s types though.

And btw for the flush draw combos, you always calculate them as you did? (You also mention "likely flush draws"). I don't even know how to do them honestly, I can only do pair and 2-card combos. For the flush part of his range I just say "he has tons of them" (time to work on my game some more )

Good question.

For flush draw combos:

-Some players (call stations), I give them every combo possible
-Others, depends on pre-flop action, but often they can have all Axs, 2 broadways, and SC

In general, a divide by 2 will get you close enough.

For the instance above, I think it is fair to give him all Axs, 2 broadways, SC + 1 gappers.

The dead cards are K (in my hand), 7 (flop), 2 (flop)

So the entire flush draw combos = 10 * 9 / 2 = 45:

(likely)
Axs... A3, A4, A5, A6, A8, A9, AT, AJ, AQ
Broadways... QJ, QT, JT
SC... T9, 98, 65, 54, 43
1 gappers.... J9, T8, 86, 64, 53
= 22

(unlikely)
Q9,Q8,Q6,Q5,Q4,Q3
J8,J6,J5,J4,J3
T6, T5, T4, T3
96,95,94,93
85,84,83
63
=23

So you could argue villains like their K9s and Q9s, etc.. but divide by 2 works quite well for most situations. The exception is when the Ace of the suit is on the board. That knocks out a large part of the likely flush draw range.

Definitely gonna take some practice to get it down for real time use. Thanks for the explanation.

I don't like going 4way to the flop with a TP hand OOP. Even though we have no evidence this will work, I'd rather limp/reraise. We have zero image right now as we just sat down, so it might work; if we just get folds, then whatever, we just set perhaps a seed of doubt in everyone's mind. If it gets limped round, play a small pot.

I don't know why we aren't including overpairs in dude's range. He's seen us raise UTG and then bet into 3 opponents on the flop; typical middle aged white guy play here is to flat this flop with JJ-88, maybe even QQ, imo.

I think I'm cool with the turn check.

River is a bet/fold for me. I just don't think a typical middle aged white guy is ever bluff/raising here (or raising a mediocre hand thinking it's good). But they'll pay off lightly since we both checked the turn (TT-88 pays off every time here, but often checks behind).

Gmeh,imoG

This pot is going to go at least 6+ ways. I'm getting hard just thinking about setmining here, I'm not sure why we aren't? We don't think that it's possible that just one of these jokers is going to flop a hand they'll go to the felt with when we flop it? Our chances of taking down this pot preflop are slim to none against this many players (especially considering that many of them are flatting the original small raise with hands as big as AK/JJ, right?). But, whatever, we got it HU in position with initiative with dead money, so I can't hate.

I'd also bet the flop. I'm not sure if we need to bet that much, maybe only 1/2 PSB. I guess a good Villain might think we wouldn't bet smallish with an Ax with the flush draw on board, but otherwise, I'd keep the bet on the small side.

I simply don't think we have enough left behind to bluff. I'm done with the hand after the flop call and just hope to showdown the winner (even though I can't possibly see what I'm beating after he calls the flop, and I guess it will be difficult for him to call with a small pair).

Overall, I think my style is just a lot more easier and low variance and brain dead (i.e. setmining here all day). Not sure what is more profitable, tbh.

GcluelessNLnoobG

thats a great point.

I need to remember this bc sometimes I level myself into thinking that my opponent couldn't miss an obvious element in the hand like getting committed. not that they know what what pot commitment is or how to use it, but I assume they inherently know that if half my stack goes in otf, that obviously I'm threatening my whole stack on later streets, but just not the case at the lower stakes.

i probably go 75/25 in the favor of set mining over 3b in the 44 hand. really depends on my image even more so than the other players, but thats just bc I have such little fe bc of my image most times that I usually lean towards set mining.

I may overestimate my io in a multiway hand like this, you make a good point about how most opponents are going to have a weak range, so you'd kinda have to cooler someone to get stacks in. again, depends on the opponents. nh

Good points by GG and fogo. Honestly, even I am not certain on which way is max EV and just calling very well may be best.

If the pot had been less ways, I actually would have flatted with 44.. as counter intuitive as that sounds. It was the fact that the pot made it to $50+ with a bunch of "limpers" that made me switch gears. Basically the dead money grew too big and my SPR got so small that I felt I would be better off playing 44 like this.

Let's say I always stack 1 person with 44 when I hit a set OTF and I never lose... (big assumptions, but this will give us the capped EV of calling here with 44):

0.1176 * ($48 + $292) = +$40 EV
0.8824 * (-$8) = -$7 EV

So in the perfect world were the set always gets a full stack and there are no reverse implied odds... I make $33 by flatting. In reality, this is probably more like $15 EV... but that model gets too complicated. It is no doubt a +EV spot.


..but, with $50 sitting out there, I believe I can surpass that set mine EV by going super aggressive here.

Ya, obviously the EV of this is tough to figure out because you have to factor in the times we run into big hands that reraise and blow us out preflop, or we go to a flop we hate and end up spewing at least one street way behind, etc. vs the times we take it down preflop / take it down with a cbet.

I will say one thing: setmining sets us up for extremely easy postflop decisions, and I don't think the value of this should be underestimated. It's really the most important thing I took from my recent reads of PNLHEv1; allowing preflop to set us up for trivial braindead decisions postflop is a good thing (and probably the most profitable, imo, unless we're uber good at soul reading and stuff).

After debating this for a while - the river bet/fold may be correct. I may have erroneously removed those middle pairs from his range.

Very possible with those PP back in his range that his line is 66/JJ given the river big bet.

Results oriented (because of his big river bet) - I am very confident I was beat this time.

So basically you're squeezing here with atc?

In my experience, this play is just massively bloating the pot w/ 44 pre, especially at the lowest stakes.

Flat pre and hire GG as a set-flopping coach imo

I would have done this with a very wide range...

I think the most likely outcome is I get zero or one caller (at this table at this time). Somewhat unlikely is that I get 2+ callers. The very unlikely outcome is I get 4-bet. The UTG raiser had a bet sizing tell so he is weak. Everyone else afterwards would have raised a hand they are proud of.. or they are simply undervaluing their hand - which is fine as long as they continue to undervalue it. They are not ranging me. They may think "BS".. but that is the limits of their ranging. To them, I am bluffing or I have AA. And in that case, most of them will make a comment like "nice bluff", and then fold.

So basically, treat this hand as if we were playing 1/3/8 NLHE. I started the hand with 37.5 bb, and I have 7 limpers in front of me. In that case I would raise a wide range to iso someone and c-bet. Perhaps my raise was even on the small side - but the impression to the masses at the table is that $3-$8-$48 is a huge 3-bet.

Now, certainly you could argue "yes, raise wide, but why turn 44 into a bluff?"... which is a very fair argument. The 44 has a significant +EV to see a flop for $8 in what will be a $60+ pot.. almost guaranteeing some implied odds on a set.

Whether I made a bad play or not, you cannot just blanket say "set mining is more EV than 3-betting" without making a case of what the 3-betting EV is.

I certainly could be making the wrong play EV wise.. but I do certainly believe this:

-Set mining EV is less than we tend to think.
-Raising EV is bigger than usual here with the unique 1/3/8 7 players situation.

So indeed, I turned 44 into a bluff. Opportunity cost on foregoing the set mining. Still up for debate whether the alternative EV was more.

I played a long session Sunday. I went to the casino very early in the morning because a 2/5 PLO game carried through the night and I wanted to catch the tail end of it... this is a short video from the session:



2/5 PLO 75% stack, 3:50, -$1700
1/3 NLHE $300 cap, 4:05, +$572
2/5 NLHE $1k cap, 2:15, -$1447


Results to Date:
4/8 Limit O8, 0:10, +$34
1/3 NLHE, 5:00, +$458
2/5 NLHE, 14:40, -$361
5/T HO, 1:30, +$1056
5/T NLHE, 7:05, +$266
2/5 PLO, 3:50, -$1700

32:15, -$247, -3.8 bb /hr



So obviously it stings a bit to swing up $4k in the start of the thread and then promptly swing down $4k+ an into the red. But hey, that is the nature of poker. My whole goal ITT is to get 500 hours in the book, so I can lean on long term stats and detach from the session-to-session results. I will march on

Sunday's session:

There are always "meta" lessons from such session. Specifically, lessons beyond hand play.
(1) I need to log some more PLO study time.
(2) I should have left a few hours earlier rather than staying at the 2/5 NLHE game. I played some pretty poor poker the last couple of hours. It wasn't even tilt, it was more of dropping to a "D" game. I think 10 hours is too much poker for me. I realized several times after hands that I never even bothered to range the other person... just playing my two cards and clicking buttons.

New chart
Hours progress:


I am behind pace because of a vacation 4th of July week (non-poker vacation ). But actually, aside from that expected deviation, I am logging the necessary hours so far.

I'm only good for about 8 hours of really concentrating on the game most days. Your description of the "D" game is exactly what I find happening when I play too long- it's not really active tilt, it's forgetting all about ranges and playing the opponent effectively, and as you say just clicking buttons hoping for some kind of cooler. Even if I'm not losing much money in those D game stretches I am just wasting time that would be better spent doing anything but sitting there - the key is recognizing that and getting up from the table.

Interesting thread - I like the in-depth hand histories and analysis, will be following your progress. No point in worrying about the recent downswing - it will turn around.

Thanks for the words of encouragement jrr And welcome to the thread - please feel free to critique hand histories and such.

Hand 1:
My first PLO hand ITT! ... and the biggest pot I have partaken in to date

Game is 2/5 PLO, ~7 handed, deep deep deep. Several players with $6k+. This hand took place ~9 am in the morning. Almost all the players (except for me) had played all night. We have a mix of players who are chasing losses, and players who have locked up huge wins nitting it up on big stacks.

Hero ($2900) in BB ATA4
V1 ($2500) UTG straddles $10.. this guy has been stuck and is playing super aggro pre-flop. He straddles BTN, CO, and UTG.. and almost always pots it pre-flop if no one else has.
V2 ($7000+) MP calls $10.. best PLO player in the area. Only shows up for PLO and HO games.
V3 ($2800) LP calls $10.. this guy is just a reg gambler. Bad at NLHE, worse at PLO as far as I can tell. Very loose.
(others fold)
Hero raises to $50 total
V1, V2, V3 call

Perhaps first mistake of the hand. V1 almost always pots his straddle. Given my relative position I could wait to re-pot. I already did that once as a bluff and took it down pre-flop... not sure if the repeat limp-repot would get called or not. I don't even know enough about PLO to have a feel for what I want to happen other than if I can get SPR very low with AAxx, then I am comfortable. Obviously I am not getting there with just one raise, but perhaps repotting 4 ways could do it.

Flop ($200)
AT8

Fantastic! I flop the nuts! However, tons of broadway draws/wraps possible so I want to charge a lot and charge fast.

I bet $200
V1 calls quickly
V2 folds
V3 thinks and calls

Turn ($800)
AT86

I think for a bit... no longer the nuts, but 97 would be less likely for villains than KQJ/KJ9/QJ9 in my opinion... plus the arrival of spades could mean fat value / lots of risk. I thought the best move was to pot again.

I bet $800
V1 shoves for ~$2250 total
V3 thinks for a long time and then folds.

I think for a bit. I have 9 outs to fill up and need $3850:$1450 odds IF he has 97. In my mind, there is a slight chance this guy would do this with a wrap + spades... and a long shot he does it with another set, or set + FD/SD. I have 35:9 or so on outs... so we are close.. I perhaps did not take long enough..

I call.. then ask V1 if he has 97 as we wait for river.. he says "No" with a huff..hmm.. sweet! Well, no, he was just being a dick.

V1 shows K973 rainbow

River ($5300)
AT86Q

(V3 slams table, would have rivered the nuts.. KJ7x no spades and he was in there thinking call OTT..)

Ouch. I perhaps made several small mistakes that resulted in a $2500 loss where it could have been less or even a win.. PLO experts - thoughts?

[QUOTE=bip!;39360536]Hand 1:


I'm no PLO expert but have played a bit. First of all, I don't like being the first raiser oop with AA even if DS, particularly if you think someone like this straddler is likely to pot giving you the opportunity to repot.

Betting that flop is standard, but once the straight card hits I'd move to check/call mode on the turn. Even bad villains have 4 cards to hit that board with.

As played I'd expect to be behind once he raises you on the turn. You actually have 10 outs as the cards lay or 24% if you give him 7-9 plus two random cards (which was about it). Seems to me you would really need about $600 more in the pot to make it a fair return on calling the $1450 if you have to hit to win. Probably still would be close enough for me to call, since as you say this particular V might be spazzing with a draw or a worse made hand, but I'm not liking it.

Can you run it twice in your room? If so I'd have asked whether he wants to run it twice - with the bare straight he might well have agreed. Might have saved yourself half that pot.

@jrr - we can't run it twice (well... I have never asked, but I have never seen it done either).

I had one of my outs (T), so down to 9 outs. I said "9 to fill up" which was misleading - 8 to fill up, 1 for quads.

Thanks for the feedback. I think you are correct - more checks, less bets... and I avoid a disaster.

I think you can run it 2x

Fwiw in games like this in PLO I am such a huge position nit that I check our DS aces since the pot is going MW anyway. Given that the straddle is going to pot and we can then repot and get it in your PFR is really sub optimal given the table dynamics.

Even if it folds to MP/LP and he opens and I can't squeeze money out I will flat versus anybody decent in these live PLO games.

However, if MP opens over a few limpers and there are a few callers and I can pot it pretty big and get a huge chunk of my stack in I will do it.

Hand 2:
... a bet that only gets called by better is a terrible bet... terrible, terrible, horrible, awful play by hero.

Another hand with several mistakes... OOP again - this was one from late in the session (after 8 hours, just clicking buttons hoping for a cooler)

2/5 NLHE 9 handed.


V1 ($1200) UTG+1 raises to $12... which is really $10.. because he forgot we were at 2/5, not 1/3. This villain is 50+ white guy that is kinda loose.. plays his 2 cards rather ABC. Has a bet sizing tell (from 1/3 we played before 2/5 opened).. $12 is an unpaired hand. He makes it more with big pairs and limps small PP.
V2 ($900) MP calls 10 (this V not of consequence).. ABC rec player
V3 ($525) LP calls 10. 30s white guy... have not seen much out of him, so seems tight.

Hero ($1000) SB with AJ.. hmmm...
I raised to $50. This is not a good move from SB, really it accomplishes almost nothing. I have a mixture of players behind me and what was I going for? Folds? Calls? Bloated pot appearantly where I am acting first on the flop...

V1 calls
V2 calls
V3 calls

A call from each of these villains means good cards. Not QQ+, but the remainder of premiums, suited connectors, PP, etc. Not a good spot for hero flying blind.

Flop ($210)
AJT

Ok - maybe I get bailed out here Regardless of preflop, I need to bet this flop. There are so many horrible turn cards (T/Q/K) and so many two-pair or AK hands that I can get value out of. I am bet/fold against the tighter players (V2/V3) and perhaps bet/call against V1 depending on sizing.

Hero bets $150
V1 thinks and calls
V2 folds
V3 calls quickly

Uh oh - V1 call is good for me. He is active and would raise 2 pair+. V3 is very worrisome though. He just overcalled and committed.

Turn ($660)
AJT8

Hey! Such a pretty board for AJ
... but my brain is off...

I debate what to do for about 15 seconds and then do the worst thing possible..
I jam for $800..
At the time, here are stacks that are left:
Hero $800
V1 - $1000
V3 - $325

I am in for a river... but I am likely facing the nuts from V3 - so I need to think about keeping V1 in for a side pot (He is AK/AQ type hand). At the time, I just got scared of K/Q rivers and overestimated what V1 would do.. thinking he would call my shove.

BUT - my shove is so horrible. Only better will call, worse will fold. I have 13 outs and huge equity against the nuts / any other great hand. I am going to be fine putting my money in as a call... why blow V1 out?!?! V1 is aware there is V3 behind him. He is also very aware I just went pot-pot-pot basically. ugghh..

V1 tanks for 1 minute and folds AK
V3 snap calls with KQ

River ($1310)
... river is a blank.. no A/J/spade to save me.

I could easily have had V1 with a smaller bet OTT, or a check-call (one of the two would have bet)... so mad at myself for this hand.

why not bet 200-250 ott, we get v1 to call again and recoup some on the river with a value bet