+$8260 feels like I've been running very well this month. At ~11k hands so a bit behind pace
I usually call light when someone bets big leaving just a bit behind, thinking they're trying to save a bit on a bluff. Seems to have worked but wanted to make sure
Bet river (jam)
Bet river (90-99% of eff. stack)
Fold freq is 10% (so never bluff here) which should add extra bias since bet folds won't get included in the weak %
The 26% weak comes from two sources:
(1) Villain calls
Weaker than the betting range since calling ranges typically block value and unblock bluffs
(2) Villain shoves & hero calls
Way stronger than the betting range since bluffs should fold
Formula for correcting, x is just what % of the shown range comes from (1) :
x = (villain call) / (villain call + (villain raise * hero call raise))
Shown weak = (x * weak when villain calls) + ((1-x) * weak when hero calls)
B-X-B for example you'd need hero B-X-BC, villain C-X-C %, and villain C-X-R %. Probably fine in a lot of spots to assume villain defends MDF and hero calls 0% weak. Raise it might actually be better to just use a similar line's raise % to not run into sample size issues.
Probably <1% here but it seems like it could account for up to -3% weak in spots
This should apply to every non all-in river spot right?
Right after I post this I thought of adding Villain calls to the H2N stats. Luckily it actually works and doesn't just show villains calling range. Sure enough the "gets called" range is 2% weaker. Bet sizing tab is blank unfortunately.
Last edited by TripleBerryJam; 02-13-2024 at 11:43 PM.