Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Poker Blogs and Goals Post your threads logging your travels up the poker ladder as you achieve your poker goals and dreams. "Challenges" does NOT mean prop bets, wagers, etc.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-16-2019, 08:17 AM   #26
dboy23
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,750
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Good thread. It is pretty wild how different the skill level is online vs live.

Was hoping you would do a last minute trip to Monterrey. I'm considering going next year after I learn a bit more Spanish. Sounds like the cash games might be pretty good there.
dboy23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2019, 11:23 AM   #27
CheckPls
stranger
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 3
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Great read while bored at work, keep the results coming!

Be good to hear about some of the players in the home games though.
CheckPls is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2019, 03:32 PM   #28
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Quote:
Originally Posted by dboy23 View Post
Good thread. It is pretty wild how different the skill level is online vs live.

Was hoping you would do a last minute trip to Monterrey. I'm considering going next year after I learn a bit more Spanish. Sounds like the cash games might be pretty good there.
It absolutely is. For me the other thing is just the realization how many spots I can improve on where as live you just don't get that feeling (less hands, less tricky spots, much more player dependent spots)

I will do a post on Monterrey after writing this, turned out it wasn't as great as it first looked. As far as needing Spanish, in the Mexican poker world you can get away without speaking any spanish at all. Most of the terms are the same as in English, and you'd be fine. Monterrey isn't the coolest city but from what I've heard the tournaments at least have been well run.
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2019, 03:38 PM   #29
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckPls View Post
Great read while bored at work, keep the results coming!

Be good to hear about some of the players in the home games though.
Thanks for reading!
And yes some write ups on the characters are definitely coming.
I've actually kind of debated how specific to go in some spots and whether to use names or not. I would guess 90% of the people I play with have never heard of 2+2 but don't want to embarrass anyone in an online forum, where it would definitely come back to hurt the games so I will error on the side of caution but can still get some good stories in there!
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2019, 04:41 PM   #30
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Monterrey// Game Selection// Current vs Future EV

On the trip to Monterey front, probably not going to happen. After initially looking amazing turns out the games are mostly visiting players and maybe not as soft as they appeared. Aaaaaand they are raking 1BB per hand at 250-500 roughly ($12/25) and 500-1000 ($25/50) which is pretty absurd. I was sent an invitation to go to the games and they proudly post it right there on the invitation.




Seems crazy at $25/50 to be paying 50$ rake. Don’t think I’ve ever even seen a game $10/20 or above that wasn’t a time rake game. Confirmed with my friend that is there. He says the 100/200 ($5/10) games are pretty good but apparently the bigger games may not be as soft as previously reported. Honestly they are still probably soft but I seem to be getting nittier as I get older.

Game Selecting
My opinion, and by no means an expert one:
Game selection is a really interesting study in the relationship between Ego and EV estimation. If someone’s ego is massive or disproportionate to their skill level they can be masters at calculating the EV of a certain spot for others but have the crucial data (their skill edge) wrong so never actually be making accurate assessments for themselves. This would be the guy that takes -EV shots, I see this type a lot in our games down here. Too little ego or under valuing skill edge leads to miscalculating EV negatively. I think live poker will always thrive because this type of player is pretty rare and way less common then the guy who has an inflated view of himself and is convinced he just runs bad and keeps playing.

I always think I am pretty objective about the state of my own game but...

I bring this up because my ego really really wants to play.


Current EV vs Future EV

Everything in me wants to go and play 10/25 and 25/50 against what will most likely be a relatively soft field even with the astronomical rake situation. I think I can unequivocally say this would be a +EV spot for me. I have the bankroll to support a loss, and I love to play mid-high stakes whenever possible.

But EV in live poker at this point for me comes down to more than just the direct EV of a situation. Future EV for me is equally important. Let’s say I go play 60 hrs of $25/50 and run poorly/play poorly and lose 6 BI’s (the amount that I would designate for this trip) That’s roughly 30 BI’s at my normal stake (a bigger downswing then the one that prompted this thread).

I am staring at a -$30,000 downswing where had I played at home that week would average +$3-5,000. Upon returning to my normal games am I able to shut this out of mind and play my A game? Am I loss chasing? Am I even capable of playing in a massively +EV casino game where the stakes are literally 1/10th of the size of what I was just playing?

If I’m in my absolute airtight compartmentalized mindset the answer is yes. If not the answer is no and I’m really putting myself in a bad situation, unmotivated and not able to take advantage of my circumstances.
It’s hard to leave for a full week if the EV is not substantially higher.

Sometimes you just have to gamble. This is what we chose to do for a living. If the spot is there, take it and live with the consequences. When I was 21 with my current BR I would have been there starting the games every night.


Cliffs: Having kids and access to soft money makes one a nit
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2019, 05:00 PM   #31
Rutledge Smitty
old hand
 
Rutledge Smitty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Twitch.tv/SmittyPLO
Posts: 1,383
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Agree with the very interesting read. Instead of using names just use nicknames you come up with/identifying factors for your characters if you feel the need.
Rutledge Smitty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2019, 05:25 PM   #32
CrunchyBlack
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
CrunchyBlack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: 8=====D~~~
Posts: 7,472
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Best current thread, please keep the updates coming!
CrunchyBlack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2019, 05:38 AM   #33
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Quote:
Originally Posted by CrunchyBlack View Post
Best current thread, please keep the updates coming!
Thanks man!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rutledge Smitty View Post
Agree with the very interesting read. Instead of using names just use nicknames you come up with/identifying factors for your characters if you feel the need.
Thanks for reading, and I'm going to only talk about the characters that I know wouldn't be pissed if they read it. (unlikely, but still better to be safe)
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2019, 07:42 AM   #34
dboy23
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,750
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Is there some in between option where you travel and only play 2-5x your normal stake level vs 10x?

I agree that it will be a challenge to mentally return to A game after a larger downswing in a game much larger than your usual spot. But if you maybe played the middle stake option and had a downswing it wouldn't feel as bad.

Another thing that I often do when travelling for poker is to start out in a similar stake game to what I play at home and then take some small shots when the bigger game looks good. If the first session goes well I keep playing the higher stake until I encounter a mini downswing.

I live in vegas so this is also an issue that comes around every year for me during WSOP where I usually choose to move up a stake level as long as my BR is close enough to support it. I ran under EV this summer and it was a bummer for maybe a few days but then I was back at my usual lower stakes playing at the same level. dwelling on the past wasn't going to earn future EV.

I think if you are choosing your shots wisely and game selecting well at higher stakes you will just win a lot more often than lose anyway so overly worrying about the worst case scenario isn't super important. Obviously you have to be able to handle it if it happens but I bet you'd surprise yourself with how well you bounce back mentally. Presumably you have a large enough BR and a stop loss for the shot, and if so go for it!
dboy23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2019, 04:12 PM   #35
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Quote:
Originally Posted by dboy23 View Post
Is there some in between option where you travel and only play 2-5x your normal stake level vs 10x?
Thanks for the response and I will clarify.
My "normal" stake here in Cabo works our to about $4.4/8.8 usd. I usually just round that to 5/10. Thats with conversion from peso to dollar. But sometimes we are playing games with $20+ straddles so its not perfectly accurate.

The 10x the stakes comment related to the casino game that I have been playing more of and is essentially 1.5/3 or 2/4 (depending on $ strength at the time) with the occasional $10 straddle. It's the smallest stake but a very soft game and something that I am committed to grinding more, as part of this blog. In the past I have struggled with motivation to grind this game. But there is a ton of value in that game and something that I can use to fill in 30 + hours a month.

So yes I can go and play $5/10 but 99% of the time, no matter how good that 5/10 game is it will not be as good as whats running at home. The reality it that I have gotten spoiled at that stake. Soft money will do that. If I'm going and spending $ on expenses/leaving the family for a week, I want my hourly to be higher than home. That is only possible by playing bigger.

Quote:
Another thing that I often do when travelling for poker is to start out in a similar stake game to what I play at home and then take some small shots when the bigger game looks good. If the first session goes well I keep playing the higher stake until I encounter a mini downswing.
However......This is good advice, I like this. Especially if the bankroll needs a little more protection. I probably should have just done this on this trip and not overthought it so much. Normally when I take a trip it's with the mindset that "I'm playing big, every day" but theres no reason to be so rigid with that.

Quote:
I think if you are choosing your shots wisely and game selecting well at higher stakes you will just win a lot more often than lose anyway so overly worrying about the worst case scenario isn't super important. Obviously you have to be able to handle it if it happens but I bet you'd surprise yourself with how well you bounce back mentally. Presumably you have a large enough BR and a stop loss for the shot, and if so go for it!
I agree with all of this. As you can see throughout this thread I value game selection over all else. From a mental standpoint its never losing that gets me, I can take a big losing session on the chin (16k this summer @25/50 , back grinding the next day).

Its the motivation to play when I go back home after. Win or lose its hard to play 1/10th or 1/5th of the stakes after playing bigger.

Quote:
I live in vegas so this is also an issue that comes around every year for me during WSOP where I usually choose to move up a stake level as long as my BR is close enough to support it. I ran under EV this summer and it was a bummer for maybe a few days but then I was back at my usual lower stakes playing at the same level. dwelling on the past wasn't going to earn future EV.
You are strong. Thats a skill that I can definitely improve on. What stakes are you moving back and forth between and where do you play? We may have run into each other over the summer. I am Wynn, Kings Lounge and occasionally Bellagio.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2019, 05:53 PM   #36
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Swingy

Kiddos were busy doing a beach cleanup for their school projects so got to put in a nice little session at home solito. My favorite time of day, especially with the cloudy sunset. Mega relaxing grind.



Then.. A homegame. A very good and agro and deepstack homegame.

I love how certain live sessions just take on personalities and this one was definitely about as agro as it gets from the start. Full game with a waiting list and I think that makes people want to put on a show a little more, when there are spectators. I really do think little stuff like that changes games.

Playing roughly 4/8 with a $20 button straddle. Most of the table is about 20-50bbs deep with the ridiculous straddle size to start. Again I will just convert pesos to dollars for this whole recap to save time.

Second orbit we open KK from MP to 7x ($140) over 2 limps and get two cold callers. Button and SB. Limpers fold.

*I have laughed typing out these hand histories a few times at just how ridiculous the preflop spots are. I will come back to this later.

40bbs ($800) effective at this point after the call.

Pot ($480)
Flop: 962

SB checks/
we bet $140 // small to get called by 9x, worse FD and to hopefully induce some spazziness from Ah or Qh
SB mucks out of turn and says "este verga no tiene nada" (this dick doesn't have anything)/
BU insta shoves remaining $800
We call.

In this game hands are shown in any all in situation and they allow deals, run it multiple times etc.

BU has A9. We offer to run multiple times and he declines. Brick Brick we hold and are up +$1100 or so 30 minutes into the session.

Within the first 2 hours there are a lot of all ins and the game gets quite deep, no cap on rebuys. There are also 3 stuck and VERY tilty dudes.

We proceed to just lose a lot of pots in single raised pots. When the game is playing like this multiple street bluffs are just burning $. Value is the only real objective.

There are categories of hands that become less playable. Against certain players I have close to 0% fold equity preflop when raising their limps. Without exaggerating I did not take down one pot pre tonight.

It's a massive misconception that all fish are easy to play against. A super agro fun player can still be annoying. Someone playing a high variance style can still put a dent in a session much easier than the normal passive fun player. Sometimes I just have to close my eyes and call and sometimes I have had to make folds where under normal game environments I would never consider it. I know in the long term I will be right more often than wrong but a lot but this can lead to some spots that are not very pleasant in the short term.

A couple of those came up last night.
I post this next hand knowing how fishy it looks but to illustrate both the kind of game and the through process (or lack thereof) of some of the regulars in it.
We have QQ. and open 5x over button straddle.
BB calls.
On T24
villian donks into me for pot.
We call
Turn 5
Over pot.
Call

River K
Over pot SNAP shove for remaining $1500 into about $1200
We tank fold.

He shows AT It was 100% a value bet in his mind.

He says he knew I had a flush draw
This kind of random button clicking is just so hard to counteract sometimes. When you are playing a pool where 50%+ of the people in it think about poker in the most insane way AND are agro, sometimes theres going to have to be some guess work. This is where I know people jump in and say, just play your range blah blah blah. I can promise you that is losing $ in the long run. I have made some of the most ridiculous exploitative calls/folds in these games based on the data in front of me and found these kind of decisions are the biggest profit centers. Most of these in theory are just not good plays.

In theory red queens is a pretty mandatory call down there against what is a pretty FOS line. In practice when playing against someone who is never bluffing with this line and for whom $2.2k is a substantial amount of money I think 9/10 I'm folding this spot. I just ran into the spot where he thinks AT is a value hand
I think that is the only "value hand" he gets to the river with that we beat FWIW. When he saw that the club didn't come he couldn't wait to get the money in (lol live reads).


Generating Value
Most of the value in this game begins to be generated preflop. Because people are insanely stick pre this can obviously be a really profitable street.

In this style of game I'm opening a tighter range and for bigger sizes, especially over limps. These factors mean that sometimes our strategy is going to bleed $ in a small sample size live environment (ex. 8 PFR's in 2 hours its pretty easy to lose 50bb's by not connecting with flops in multi way pots against people that don't fold)

This happens to us and we watch AK / AQ / KQs / QJs go up in flames for a few hours when we get AK in the CO. We have since added on some $ to cover a few people at the table.
There is a button straddle to $50 in this hand (lol) we make it $200 and the button just rips in $2500. Obviously a very easy call being that he is so strongly weighted towards pairs, never does this with Aces and occasionally has worse Ax. But this is the kind of spot that really ramps up the unnecessary variance in these games. There are so many better spots than to be flipping for 500bbs (100bbs in this case w/ the straddle). We call he has 99, we run two boards, puro bricks, he scoops a $ 5k pot and thats the session right there.

After this hand, I get up walk around outside for a few minutes and come back to my withered stack and theres a vibrator sitting on top of it. The guy who won the hand says "Te dije que iba a romper tu culo" I told you, Im going to break your ass. Hahaha indeed he did.

Spoiler:


We don't and battle back, pick up a few small wins and end - $1800 on the night.

In for 3.2k out for $1400.

Spoiler:



Best game thats run in awhile from an action and $ on the table standpoint. By nights end there was roughly $25-30k on the table in a 4/8 game+ straddles a good sign for the winter to come.

Just for the simplicity of posting moving forward I am going to use Oct 1st not October 8th as the start date of the challenge. I was using the date I started this PGC (the 8th) but its too confusing so I will just use the start of the month. Also adds volume and +2k to the total winnings


Halfway point, not exactly where we want to be profit, but more focused on volume and I'm pretty close there. I actually couldn't have played much more, only 2 days off and quit early twice so happy on that front. The hourly will tick up, it always does, just have to put in the hours!

Challenge Stats (October 1-16th)
Live:
Hours:74
Profit: +$4458
Hourly: $59

Challenge Days//Sessions//W-L: 16 days/ 14 sessions / 8 of 14

Online: + $3096

Combined Totals : + $7554
Onwards and upwards we go!

Last edited by mantecaa; 10-17-2019 at 06:07 PM.
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2019, 01:08 AM   #37
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

I haven't been as motivated to post the last few days despite poker going overall well. Just a lot of IRL expenses and stress coming all at once. This is generally not a huge deal but everything really did just compound and some financial stuff needs to be addressed before i can take a deep breath again. Ohh well, life definitely goes on.

I will do a full recap and cover some real estate stuff in a post at the end of this month.

Got away with the family for a little beach camping and then to the waterfalls, as the weather is finally cool enough. That was an awesome little recharge. One of my favorite things about Mexico is that you can still find your own little secluded beach and there's really no rules against much.
We took my 2 little ones and one of their friends from school and had a great weekend of bonfires, swims, surf fishing, camp food and some good wine for mom and dad.

The drive in. We have had a rainy summer so the desert is very green.



The nightly routine. Smores and NO IPADS!!



The hike in to the waterfalls is pretty epic when there has been a lot of rain. Theres a great rock to jump into the little pond part (roughly 7 or 8 M tall) and on about the 5th or 6th jump it was slick and when I jumped I slipped and immediately was sideways in the air. Fell flat on my back and side and just lay there in the water with all the wind knocked out of me making that funny wheezy noise where it sounds like you are dying. Stuff hurts way more now then when I was 16 that is for sure




Nobody around We drove 2+ KM and didn't see another person on this really amazing stretch of beach. The ocean is on the direct left of this photo, somehow managed to not take a good ocean shot the whole trip



Returned last night to a game that rarely runs and was in USD denomination, another rarity. It was 10/20$ with 2 good (for Cabo) players and 5 fun spots. First orbit got stacked for $5k on T97 with 99 against 86o against the massive spot that the game forms around. Was never really able to claw back, so a nice little 5k dent on what was shaping up to be a good month.

I will also do a full month in review on the first month of the challenge at the end of October. Not looking good on the hourly goal + going to Sinaloa this weekend for a wedding so won't get any hands in for the second weekend in a row but I absolutely love Mexican weddings and this will be a fun one. Not even close on the $ goal but I'm less concerned with a dollar goal generally and more just want to get the hours in. It would definitely be good to run well the rest of this month as I have a massive amount of expenses coming up before the end of the year.

The good news is the game quality is clearly picking up as more people come back for the winter and game are running longer + bigger than even a month ago!
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2019, 01:48 AM   #38
dboy23
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,750
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Oh man coming back to a vibrator on your stack is hilarious. Sounds like a fun group of guys to play poker with. You do seem to have a good attitude towards downswings which is something a lot of weaker pros lack.

If it's easier I'm sure you could just post hands in peso denom and just mention roughly what stakes USD it would be for reference at the start rather than convert each bet for every hand.
dboy23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2019, 06:09 PM   #39
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Mexican "Rakeback"

The casino always has a high hand bonus taken from the jackpot rake but they are running a promo where if you make quads or better you get 2x the normal % of the jackpot rake in "sports book credit". Basically rakeback but it's in the form of casino credit that can only be used at the sports book. Not sure exactly why but they are definitely making a conscious effort to push people towards the book recently (advertisements all throughout the casino and very specific promos).

Last night I made a straight flush which normally would be 10k peso cash but now is 20k pesos (about $1.1k usd) casino credit. They also only give you 24 hours to use it lol. Would obviously prefer the cash but now that they are forcing me to gamble I feel incentivized to really punish the casino

I'm sure there is a more + EV line to take but I am currently feeling pretty gambley so might just put the full 20k on some multi team $ line parlay fish bet and call it a day and beat the casino for 5x what they should have just paid normally. This fishy thinking is why I never bet sports obviously.

GAMBBBLLEEEEEE!!! Will post the pick when I make it
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 07:11 AM   #40
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Pressure and Life Variance

I wrote a much longer post but contained too many specific details and I got bored reading it myself. So I edited it into more bullet points. The basics are as follows.

Life Variance
I have roughly 50k in expenses due by the end of the year. I knew about 20k of them, the rest are unexpected and have come up in the last week. It was like a 10 day stretch from hell where I just kept getting bad financial news after bad news continuously. A huge part of making this blog in the first place was to motivate myself to take poker more seriously again and get back to grinding. Now more than ever this is necessary.

Going back to my motivation for writing this PGC. Motivation to work more:
Why was this important to me?

In 2018 my wife and I bought a 3-plex property (2 studios and a 1 bedroom penthouse). It was an off market deal that required a ton of up front capital and basically obliterated our savings. It was much larger deal than I had ever done and a little scarier. This was ok because the place was turn key and a day 1 rental machine when I plugged my systems in. It was creatively financed over 5 years so it came with a massive monthly # attached but we were cash flow + literally from the first month on.

Complacency and Forming Bad Habits
With that property doing well and our other rentals doing well I got complacent in poker. I was making $ but I was not focused on savings, and not making so much $ that savings was happening by accident. We took some trips, and got away from some of the more conservative tendencies that I had developed and my wife always had.

I had to dip into my BR for the first time in a long time, because I had less savings then I was accustomed to and my BR was bigger than it had to be for the stakes I was playing and the expectations in those games. Small things, 1k here, 2k there etc. But those things add up.

Then right on cue I went through a nasty downer.

Fooled by Randomness
A phenomenal book, about how we are biased to attribute success to skill. Also applicable to this latest investment.
I made a mistake that I should never make. Everything was going perfectly with the new rental and I mistook this for all skill and no luck. The reality was we ran insanely hot for a year in all things with that 3plex: guests, utilities, property management, renovation etc. The last week has reminded me of what I have already learned 10x in my investing life here. ALWAYS PLAN FOR THE WORST. Unless I want to starting paying some of the massive mortgage out of pocket (I don't) some changes need to be made. This is where a lot of the expenses are coming from.

Literally within the last week I have found out about roughly 30k that will have to be taken care of by the end of they year. In addition to the 20k that I knew about this means the last few days I have started to feel pressure unlike anything I have felt in poker for a long time.

Poker as a Primary Source of Income//Needing to Win
I know I have had a blessed poker career. I know that the 28k downswing that prompted this thread is quite small. But that coupled with the pending expenses means that I will be required to win over these next few months and required to do so at a fairly substantial clip.

I like pressure because I genuinely believe that I can thrive under it, but I also know how toxic it is to go into a session saying "I have to win."

This last weekend, the family and I were in Los Mochis, Sinaloa where most of my wife's family still lives. It was an amazing weekend full of family, friends, excessive drinking, excessive food, a wedding, a pre wedding party, a post wedding party and a lot of laughs. Normally that would be a really nice break from poker and I could completely detach mentally from poker and emotionally from recent results (good or bad) . But when I was falling asleep each night I was getting a feeling of nervousness and uneasiness about the next few months ahead. I am a deep sleeper and I slept like absolute **** the whole time I was there. I was texting and checking on the games, feeling like I should be home and grinding.


My wife is VERY conservative and I have always pushed her to take more risks, that everything will be ok, “we can afford to take that vacation, we can afford to buy this rental, we can afford for you to stay home with the kiddos etc” Even when we were both working normal jobs and bringing in good incomes she was constantly stressed about money, and any large purchase we made was a full on event for her. She was a person who would rather bury cash in the backyard then put it to work. But she has seen the results of past investments and has come full circle on that front.

Not working has made her the most happy wife and the best mom I could ever ask for, but it took awhile for her to become totally at peace with is from a financial standpoint. We really love our life in its current iteration. That also means I tend to not share any financial stress with her. I don't want her to tell me she is going back to work (where she was miserable) and which was her first response in the past. This will be 100% my burden. I have set up my life this way on purpose, so I'm not saying this in a poor me way but rather in a matter of fact one.

October so Far
All of this is compounded by the fact that despite putting in over 100hrs up until this point the results of October are not optimal. Despite writing this long PGC about mindset, I have had some sessions where I am not 100% focused on just playing poorly and let other bull **** creep into my head. Also I ran horrible in the few big games that ran and better in the smaller stuff.

Moving Forward

I don't want to dwell in the stress. I don't want to keep talking about negative results. I will post a month in review after this month is over (2 more sessions VAMO), drop it all and approach these next two months with mental tenacity and awareness.

I will not stress about results but just grind my ass off like I was 21 and building a bankroll. The results will come, I have absolute faith in that.

I'll get out from under this mountain of pressure I have and get back to the good habits that got me financial/investing/poker success in the past.

I will thank the variance/poker gods for the reminder to not take them for granted and for letting me run hot over these next 60 days or so.

Also I will write a few posts that make me happy from good memories, probably one about a phenomenal cash game that ran here for a few months and one about a prop bet from WSOP. Spoiler, both of these things went well for me so talking about past run good hopefully will spur some modern day run good as well.

Cheers!
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2019, 10:04 PM   #41
HUMBLE.
veteran
 
HUMBLE.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: PG&C
Posts: 2,004
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Thanks for the great update, mantecca. You a nice family and I wish you luck.
HUMBLE. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 06:06 PM   #42
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Ok a good story about a great game and a pretty classic character. Trying to activate some run good by talking about the good old days.

Loy. The Indian Doctor Legend

For this one I can use all 100% accurate info, this guy left town without telling anyone, and owes me 5k and a friend of mine almost 20k which we are drawing dead on ever receiving so I don't feel too bad disclosing anything. Apparently he moved to Dubai, but even despite the $ issue I will always love him. I bought an apartment downtown Cabo from his game and my wife used to say “thanks Loy!” all the time when we were fixing the place up lol. Bad taste but she doesn't know any better

This all takes place between April- early August of 2017 when the game ran.

Whether on not he was ever actually a doctor is a disputed part of his bio, but Loy was a 60 or so year old Indian gentleman that had previously been a gynecologist in the States and then lost his license through a never disclosed incident. He had somehow gotten into resort/timeshare/real estate sales. I was always skeptical about his career arc but who knows, most people called him Doc so??? He was one of the sketchiest and at the same time most honorable guys. He worked for a large resort company, was the GOAT salesman (this I saw the receipts for, he had trophies in his very sick house and the $ to back up that claim) and ended up running a resort in Cabo.

I met him in the casino, he was playing high stakes (for Mex) BJ betting the max in 3 spots and we struck up a weird little friendship over the course of 3 or 4 conversations, generally when I was waiting for the poker game to start. He was clearly very smart and had an accent that made you have to really pay attention to what he was saying so you wouldn't miss words. I legitimately enjoyed our little casino chats. THis lead to him telling me he loved poker but hated playing in the casino because the stakes were too low. That conversation resulted in him asking me to help him organize a game outside of the casino. He wanted to play and had some friends from work that liked poker as well, he just needed help setting up the game at his house in a very nice neighborhood a little outside of town. I found him a table and a reliable dealer and we were off.

He was an all time host. He found 5 guys and later a girl who were absolute degenerate gamblers and loved action. He would personally get stuck 5k-20k EVERY SINGLE SESSION. The rest of the players would send money around the table but he could never find a win. However when he would decide he didn’t want to play anymore he would never kick us out but just rail the game while chain smoking Marbolro Whites and drinking chardonnay for the next 6-8 hours. He was a clearly smart guy outside of poker and when he was railing would be intensely studying, but over 4 months he never made a single improvement to his game.

His mates from work were marginally better, but the games were just massive dick swinging contests that resulted in insane pots with what was quite often shocking hands when they were turned over. * quick side note but this was the only game I've ever played that was 100% expats. Loy’s boss, who was a very big wig at the company (and a complete dickhead) played in the game as well. He had the biggest ego i’ve come across in a poker game. He would swear, critique play (lol) throw cards, rip cards, whereas Loy would lose in peace. The boss was the kind of guy who was convinced everyone was bluffing at all times. He himself was a fan of the big bluff / slam the cards down and show how hard he owned you move. The boss guy eventually was the one who made a loud public declaration that I should have never been invited to the game and that he would never play again, the game was almost dead anyway at this point. To put the quality of this spot in perspective the second best player in the game is the only person who still plays 2 years later, and is the fish that the big games run around now. In Loy’s game this guy was a winning player.

The game was 10/10 because they got tired of playing with “all the stupid ****ing small chips”. We had initially started at 2/5 which lasted 1 night. After about 2 hours each night it would inevitably change to 10/25 or 25/25. The dealer in the game was making $500-1000 a game in tips, mostly because $10 was the smallest denomination chip on the table. You could straddle from anywhere to any size and Loy’s favorite tactic was the massive ($100-$500) straddle. When he would win the blinds he would always count the ROI out loud. For example if he straddled to $200 and everyone folded he would say “easiest 10% I ever made” I would open a super strong range into his straddle and he would defend literally 100% of his straddles. Other people would defend maybe 50%. The action was absolutely insane. I had the biggest losing pot and the biggest winning session within the span of a month. The losing pot was set over set 1000+bb effective on 33675 where I called the river shove with 66 . I will never forget that feeling when one of the biggest losing players in the game said “two pair” and turned over a 7 followed by veryyyyy slowly turning over the second 7. That was 1 of 2 losing sessions i had in 15.

I was always conscious of giving action and legitimately trying to not win too much too obviously, especially early on. But the way that the game played unless I was going to fold obvious winners it was going to be hard not to win. Maniacal nonsense bluffs were the drug of choice. Eventually i realized it didn’t really matter, they were beyond degenerates that were betting 5k a game NBA sides, the game was an excuse to get out of the house and people didn't seem to phased by the money changing hands. There was too much debt for the game to sustain itself long term and I was going to maximize my winning while it lasted I decided about 2 months in. The fact that I really didn’t like 4 of the 6 regulars helped too. Except against Loy, I genuinely liked him, I offered to help him with his game almost every week, he had a very likable personality and you could see why he was a great salesman. But he always said “ it’s ok, I love to play and you have to lose money to get better!” I would show him my hand a lot when he was getting ready to load up one of his suicidal bluffs, I would slide him back $100 chips and say “thanks for never taking rake”, things like that to try to let him know I genuinely appreciated his hospitality and wasn’t interested in trying to scalp him every time we played.

After one particularly chaotic week, my biggest single session win of all time (still to this day), Loy made a rule that nobody could rebuy for more than $1,000 at a time to keep the game smaller and more in control. After he got stacked the third time bluffing into his dickhead boss that night he said “**** it, no rules” and refought for 5k. The other guy from that game that still plays and I still say “**** it no rules” at least once a session. He would alternate between having really sage life and financial advice to saying stuff like that all the time.

A couple of other amazing tidbits from that game: There was no rake, but we had to pay for whatever food he ordered. He would send someone to go to and pick up some ridiculous order, always some absurdly extravagant thing like rack of lamb with potatoes al gratin al a carte 6 or 7 portions and then we would pay the bill. There was also a VERY open bar policy. Loy had no interest in making money from the game, but he also never wanted to play anywhere other than his own home. If I didn’t personally know the dealer and if they didn’t lose every session I would have been concerned with cheating. They all knew each other and I only knew them from poker. But if they were cheating they were the worst cheaters of all time. I think he just liked having his big house full of people.


He always had 10k cash with him which he would lose 1k-5k at a time. He had this very idiosyncratic process, where he would go bust, calmly tell the dealer to give him a hand and not muck it, go to his safe in his bedroom, come back with cash and then play his hand. He wouldn't rebuy or top off his stack until it was all gone. When he lost all the cash he had on him he would get leant chips from the biggest stack at the table, usually me. This was one of the few times where I loaned often and without a second thought. For one, the game would have immediately died had I not been loaning to half the table and 2 he was always settled up by the start of the next game and would vouch for anyone else I loaned to as well. Obviously the game was at his house and he had recruited all of the players so it was in my best interest to try to keep everyone happy but as time went on I started to get a little worried about getting stiffed.


In one particularly volatile session he got stuck low 5 figures, the majority of which was loaned by me. The games ran on Thursday and that Saturday he called me and asked me to drive out to meet him at a golf course about 20 minutes outside of town. He was vague about what he wanted but said it was something about a good opportunity for me. I figured he was going to try and hustle a golf match or something along those lines. We met on this paved cul de sac with a punch of parceled off residential dirt lots. It was looking out at the fairway of a very nice golf course. The course developer was in the process of finishing facilities, the clubhouse was in and they were selling lots + a few really beautiful homes were already built. Loy was standing there and told me how he had bought the best lot on this cul de sac for $100k but was never going to build on it. Instead of paying me the debt in cash would I consider giving him 50k for the lot and calling it square. With what he owed that would mean I was getting a pretty amazing deal on the land. He told me he was willing to take a loss on the lot because he would have to pay taxes on it if he built (true) and it could be reported to the US and would get him in trouble (unlikely). I immediately knew I was saying no. The sketchiness of this proposal was off the charts, The likelihood of him owning this lot I felt was actually reasonable but he was a shrewd guy and this seemed too good to be true. Everyone has a breaking point where they think “**** this kid that always wins”. I was 15 years younger then the youngest person in the game. It was a tough spot because I didn’t want to piss him off but there was 0% I was saying yes. I kind of bumbled my way through a no, said a lot of reasons why I couldn’t accept, and told him I really appreciated the offer. He settled almost all of the debt at the next game (less 5k), we played like normal and that was the last week I ever saw him in person.
An interesting side note is that he did own the lot legally and did sell it for a loss 2 days after the last game to someone that he worked with before he left town. The lot is worth probably 200k today but I don't really stress over those kind of things. Still to this day I'm not sure of the legitimacy of the offer or if he had some secret string to pull that would implode the deal on me, but I like to think he made it in earnest because he knew he couldn’t pay back the loan any other way but wanted to pay his debt. I am an eternal optimist.

It was really sad when I texted him and the message never got delivered. They said he had been planning on transferring anyway but he had not mentioned it to me so I almost felt guilty in some way, despite him leaving with a debt. He clearly had disposable income and then some, but losing 6 figures in 4 months is a pretty big kick in the gut for anyone. Yes they were degenerates that that lost a lot sports betting and in the casino but just the efficiency + speed of NL I think makes it a lot less fun I imagine. Maybe the atmosphere and the joking/ social nature makes it more fun, I'm not sure.

But looking back it was one of the most exciting 4 month stretches of time for me career wise. I remember driving to the game in like a nervous trance thinking that I couldn't believe it was real and that this would be the last week that they invited me back. But they kept inviting me back, we would have 1 marathon session per week a lot of yelling, a lot of big pots and then back at it again the next week. Sometimes poker is not dead


One side character that deserves a paragraph is the only woman who ever played in the game, 4 or 5 times. She was a 40 something Israeli/American lady who ran some scam Dead Sea skin product thing that they sold to Americans in the Marina out of these little kiosks. Similar to the phone charger guys at WSOP. I include her because the first night she played in the game, it somehow came up that one night in New York she met Kenny Anderson, the retired NBA player and took him home for a one night stand. it was just the most absurd premise and I couldn’t control myself laughing, she was so intensely proud of this. She talked about it like someone would talk about meeting the Dali Llama or something spiritual, and I just couldn’t help myself but just ask her ever intricate detail of the night. She was 100% telling the truth which made it even funnier. I brought it up every time she played and she would get this look in her eye like she was reminiscing and it killed me every time imagining the scene.

Anyway, poker is crazy.
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 07:09 PM   #43
HUMBLE.
veteran
 
HUMBLE.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: PG&C
Posts: 2,004
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

I read all of it. What a crazy story about the home game with Loy, the Indian doctor. I personally know some extremely smart professionals who are absolutely brilliant in all things except gambling. They excel in most things, but not in poker and gambling related activities for some odd reason. They are certainly capable people.

So how do you feel about Loy not paying back off his poker debt to you. I've loaned small amounts of money before and I learned a valuable lesson when I've been stiffed. I think all poker players have.

And what do you think about loaning money to the recreationals in the game, especially if it the case that if you don't loan the money, the game will die?

In some games I've known players to "spread the risk around", meaning that instead of borrowing from only one player in the game, when the recreational borrows money the whole table takes a piece of the loan to ease the burden.

Thanks for the update! I look forward to reading more from you.
HUMBLE. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 08:06 PM   #44
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Quote:
HUMBLE.

I read all of it. What a crazy story about the home game with Loy, the Indian doctor. I personally know some extremely smart professionals who are absolutely brilliant in all things except gambling. They excel in most things, but not in poker and gambling related activities for some odd reason. They are certainly capable people.

So how do you feel about Loy not paying back off his poker debt to you. I've loaned small amounts of money before and I learned a valuable lesson when I've been stiffed. I think all poker players have.
I can't believe I'm saying this because I am a nit about this kind of stuff but in retrospect it doesn't bother me all that much that he never paid me back. Until I was writing the post I hadn't even thought of it for a year or so. He spoon fed this amazing situation, never took rake and personally lost an insanely large amount of money. The 5k kind of feels like the tax. I would obviously have preferred to get paid but I don't have any ill will towards him. My friend who booked a 20k NBA finals bet with him and then never got paid feels differently but there were some discrepancies there about the arrangement so don't want to go too much into detail on that.


Quote:
And what do you think about loaning money to the recreationals in the game, especially if it the case that if you don't loan the money, the game will die?

In some games I've known players to "spread the risk around", meaning that instead of borrowing from only one player in the game, when the recreational borrows money the whole table takes a piece of the loan to ease the burden.
This is literally the only game I have ever played in that I loan money. To me its just almost never worth the risk. I make it a habit to never ask for money so that no one can ask me down the line to return the favor. It seems like the small amounts are the ones that are the biggest pain in the ass to collect and collecting debt is something I really hate doing. I like the idea of spreading the debt though, not just risk reduction but more people to talk to the guy if he's not paying. In all of the non casino games down here the operator is responsible for giving or denying credit which is a pretty clean system as well.

Also in Mexico there are some off the books "debt collector" style of people that can get involved and I think the threat of that makes it a little for the home game guys to collect.

But that game was a special case because the game was so insane, the EV of it continuing to run was always significantly higher than the risk of the loan. Loy was a unique guy because if I loaned to anyone else which was more rare he would go out of his way to personally guarantee the loan. I think because he felt we knew each other better than I knew the other guys.

Anyways, thanks for reading and hope it was entertaining. Cheers!
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 09:39 PM   #45
snowie963
banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,485
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Very good story. I’ve never heard of this Kenny Anderson player, though my brothers ex had a friend who slept with Jamie Foxx, now that’s impressive.
snowie963 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2019, 10:22 PM   #46
EPTchips
grinder
 
EPTchips's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 520
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

In, gl
EPTchips is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2019, 09:43 PM   #47
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

October Review

Handing out candy at home so no session tonight. Month over!
Overall very disappointing month. Will type up the review, learn from the mistakes and then never thinking about October again. On to bigger and better to close out the year. Month started off well, was on my way to $15k+ month. I was booking a lot of medium wins and small losers. Just a nice steady grind at an average stake of roughly $4/8.

An amazing bigger game $10/20 w/ a lot of $40 went off. I got coolered in the first orbit 250bbs deep never got it back and proceeded to lose 4/5 sessions to close out the month and rack up a pretty pathetic hourly.

Obviously running bad in the limited higher stakes stuff that goes is disappointing, but it's going to happen when we are talking about 200-500 hand samples. The more frustrating part is letting that + some IRL $ **** get to me and play poorly the last few days of the month. Should have booked a small winner last night and turned it into a medium loser going for a lot of unnecessary spots.

Online I played my normal mini grind and had a decent little month. Again not a huge part of my year but nice to get some hands in and make a little $ (especially in a disappointing live month). Unfortunately because of the $ stuff I have coming up in the real world I cashed out $7k I had online to help cover some stuff coming up so until I get everything paid for and these financial burdens off my back I will just be grinding live.

Live:



Disregard the BR part. I'm not sure how that is calculated but its safe to say the BR is not currently @167k

Online:




Live: $3,671
Online:$3,602
Total: $7,273
Live Hours: 130

Positives:


Hours. Put in the most hours I've played in a month this year outside of WSOP and played 25 of 31 nights. Not quite what I wanted (160) but some of that was outside of my control: games running short, 5 nights out of town etc.

Bigger home games seem to be starting to run. Got 10 hours @ 10/20+ . Hopefully this trend continues as we move into winter. Hopefully we ignite the run hot when these games go, as they really can make or break months.

Was able to stay focused in the smaller stakes games throughout the month. Happy with my focus in the smallest stakes which is what I have either not been playing for lack of motivation or playing sloppily in prior months.

Found a random HU challenge from a mega nitty guy I play with a lot. We played 2/5 for 3 hours when a game broke and he slowly nitted away 1k. Maybe he will make it more common, he seemed to enjoy it


Negatives:

Ran poorly at the higher stakes. Never fun.

Ran some really -EV bluffs, probably good in a vacuum from a theory standpoint. Awful, considering my opponents. If I could have 5 hands back and just chk/fold flop I would be 6k richer. Going for spots, even when theres really obvious value hands that I can have, against people that don't fold is just stupidity.

This all happened near the end of the month where I was not playing close to my best, probably a mixture of
1.unhappiness with results and chasing bigger wins. Taking spots that I probably wouldn't if I was up 25k on the month.
2.small amount burnout. Near the end of the month I was not as motivated to play then the beginning but I think that has more to do with results then with being mentally tired.
3. Stress from life stuff.

I have played too long to have leaks like this come up again. Definitely good to address it now and not let it linger. Value baby value! Its live poker, 90/10% value/bluff against almost everyone at the table.

Got angled by a guy hiding a 10k peso ($560) chip, I asked him how much he had before the river action and he said an amount that corresponded with all of his chips without the 10k. 100% intentional, and just kind of shitty. He shoved for what I thought was $220 and I had a pretty easy call. The 10k chip turned what I thought was a $220 river decision(1/3rd pot) into a $780 one (pot). Against 1/3rd I had a pretty easy decision and called within 10 seconds. Against pot I had a pretty easy decision and would have folded within 10 seconds as well. *small weak, big strong live poker fun player tells obviously. My fault for not getting an exact count but I had what I thought was an easy decision and I like to play fast in those games. When I called he slid the 10k out from under a stack kind of like "OOO I got you good". I lost my **** internally for 10 seconds and debated making a scene and not paying the 10k but decided to pay the man his $ and add his name to the brutal slowroll list stuff like this sucks, but live poker, keep the fish happy, probably isn't aware of how shitty of a thing this is etc. etc.

I definitely let $ stress affect decision making, not in a scared money way// but in a bigger win chasing way. I know better than that.

Had to take all the $ offline. This doesn't really affect the bottom line but I think I get some significant value from my 10k hands a month (non financial value that is). So that will be a drag but we will build back up the bankroll in the live streets and be back online soon.

A couple of hands.

Online Hands


Ambitious by All Parties Involved


Pacific Poker - $0.50 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 60.38 BB
SB: 163.34 BB
BB: 108 BB
UTG: 49.08 BB
Hero (MP): 108 BB
CO: 86.12 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 20.5 BB, Hero calls 18 BB, CO calls 13 BB

Flop: (62 BB, 3 players) T 6 6
BB bets 87.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 87.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 65.62 BB and is all-in

Turn: (302.62 BB, 3 players) K

River: (302.62 BB, 3 players) A

BB shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)

Main Pot [258.86 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#1 [43.76 BB]: (Pre 21%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows A A (Full House, Aces full of Sixes)

Main Pot [258.86 BB]: (Pre 71%, Flop 82%, Turn 90%)
Side Pot#1 [43.76 BB]: (Pre 79%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

CO shows T A (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)

Main Pot [258.86 BB]: (Pre 12%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

Hero wins 250.86 BB
Hero wins 43.76 BB



Not sure about either line.


Pacific Poker - $2 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 134.7 BB
CO: 113.25 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) T 9 T
CO checks, Hero bets 3.63 BB, CO calls 3.63 BB

Turn: (23.76 BB, 2 players) 3
CO checks, Hero bets 13.07 BB, CO calls 13.07 BB

River: (49.89 BB, 2 players) 7
CO checks, Hero bets 27.44 BB, CO raises to 89.06 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 48.37 BB and is all-in

Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 86%, Flop 80%, Turn 75%)
CO shows K J (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 14%, Flop 20%, Turn 25%)
Hero wins 199.5 BB


Normal Spot against maniacal whale guy

Pacific Poker - $1 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 205.11 BB
SB: 192.78 BB
BB: 100 BB
CO: 80 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A T

CO raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 7 A K
CO bets 11.66 BB, Hero calls 11.66 BB

Turn: (40.82 BB, 2 players) 9
CO bets 20.41 BB, Hero calls 20.41 BB

River: (81.64 BB, 2 players) 3
CO bets 39.93 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 39.93 BB

Hero shows A T (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 30%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
CO shows A K (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 70%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
CO wins 157.5 BB


Live Hands

Probably OK line and completely unnecessary spew at the same time

$2/4 w/ mandatory $15 button straddle. $2000 effective with button

MP limps // MP2 calls // LJ calls // CO raises $60 // we are on button with JcTc 3b to $200 // MP, MP2, LJ all fold // CO calls quickly.
The limpers are never raising. CO is huge fish, we have position on everyone. Yes we can just fold this hand (lol), but IP in this lineup I am never folding here.
Also the sizing of raise means he doesn't have QQ+ very often. Live weak players tend to size massive with their strongest value and smaller with with their weaker value.
I prefer to iso this holding rather than call because:
1. 5 way pots are impossible to win; if I flat the other 3 are flatting 90%+
2. We can isolate one of the weakest players in the game IP when he has what I view to be a pretty weak range.

CO is very fit or fold post flop. Has overvalued hands against me in the past and is the kind of guy who really doesn't want to let free cards roll off when he has a strong hand. He will put $ in pre and can be fairly sticky on early streets but in 2+ years of playing with him I haven't seen him arrive at too many showdowns with marginal hands. My impression is that the $ means more to him than a lot of people in the game and this game is playing a little bigger than he normally does. Also he is winning about $1k on the night.



Flop ($450) $1800 effective

Kc39r


Chk/ we bet $275/ he calls
Easy bet w/ everything we have here. Obvious turn barrels etc.
He is calling all pairs, all gutters and folding most Ax here. I know this sounds crazy but we can really heavily discount Kx. The "make top pair and donk lead" is a big part of this guys repertoire and the "check/raise top pair good kicker" makes up the rest of his Kx holdings. This player tends to really over value TP holdings and really worry about protection.
These kind of assumptions (assuming accuracy) are why live poker is so much more profitable. Players are just infinitely more predictable and adapt much slower if at all. These assumptions also get me into trouble in this hand FWIW.

Turn ($1000) $1500 effective

Kc3x9x 4x


Chk/Chk

Against this specific player type I think there is a lot more fold equity in 1 big river bet vs 2 medium bets across turn/river. If I half pot turn/ half pot river all in its pretty shocking how often it goes call/ call with marginal holdings.

This next part is purely my speculation, but I think it is pretty accurate for how a truly bad live player approaches decision making.
I think for a lot of players at this level its as simple as this: when they arrive at rivers they look at the pot, they look at their stack and if the pot is bigger than their stack they end up calling lighter than they should. "I had pot odds man, have to call"
Setting up full pot or slightly over pot river shoves gets the same range that goes call/ call to fold at such a high clip. If I can get this guy to look at his stack and feel good about folding and continuing with that stack the likelihood of the bluff getting through goes up substantially.
Keeping track of little things, like how much someone is up (and if they call this bet will they still be up? if they fold here will they be winning in the game ?) matters. I promise you those thoughts are going through your opponents head when they are making decisions at low stakes live cash or even at mid stakes live cash if you are as lucky as me

River ($1000) $1500 effective

Kc3x9x4x Ac

Other than Q probably the best river card in the deck for us. He quickly checks, pretty clearly doesn't love the card. We take our time and jam $1500 effective. He's convinced and goes to muck about 4 times but never quite releases the cards. He says out loud 3 times "yo se que estoy muerto" I know I'm dead here. Followed up by the worst words to hear when youre bluffing, "Tengo que verlo" " I have to see it.
I table JT and he gets so excited he forgets to table his hand and starts scooping the pot before revealing JJ. Yikes.

Pretty much the month in a nutshell. I know we got away with a lot but there are quite a few hands like this that are sticking in my head.

Better to just not bluff. Better to just show up with Ax. Better to go thin on this river with KQ. Live poker can be so straight forward and still so annoying.


This is not a particularly interesting hand but is illustrative of why the above bluff is just completely unnecessary against this player pool.

Hand 2
$2/4/8 // 9 handed // $2000 effective
I open AQo $40 UTG, MP calls, HJ calls, SB calls
Sb is VERY sticky, very agro and heavily overvalues holdings

Flop ($160)
Q22r

chk/ we bet $50/ fold / fold / sb chk raises to $200 / we call

Obvious spot but he can 100% have 2's here. His range looks something like (All Qxs, Q8o+, a lot of 2xs, A2o, 33-JJ at some frequency + the small % spazz with Ax, KJ style holdings)

Turn ($560) $1700 effective

Q22 4 r

In my head this is the most important street for this kind of hand against this specific player. Here is where he will give us the relevant info pretty reliably.
Even though he is a spazz, he intuitively goes small here with hands that he is going to check back on river (weakest value) and goes big with 2x and his strongest Qx + the spazz bluffs. This player is almost never checking turn after chk/raising flop.

SB bets $300 which was kind of in between for him. I tank a bit and call. On brick rivers I'm just debating between going for call or raise as his hand feels very much like Qx now. I know this sounds crazy but he will also show up with 88-JJ sometimes with this line. Very happy to be IP in this spot.

River ($1160) $1400 effective
Q224 3r

SB bets $400, so went $200 flop, $300 turn, $400 river. This sizing makes my decision quite easy after a pretty perfect run out and we jam for roughly 1k more. He bemoans his luck, shows his hand to his neighbor, moves his chips around "que mala suerte" etc. After this performance I know he is calling and that we have close to the nuts. Eventually he calls and shows up with QTo.


Outside of Poker
Amazing wedding in Sinaloa. The setup for this wedding was pretty smart. The ceremony and dinner were the 150 or so guests. But after dinner a bunch of other people had been invited for the "party". Lots of food, out of control drinking and dancing horses.


Also had a pretty epic meal at Cocina de Autor with some good friends. 10 courses, way too pricey but insanely good. No more of these until financial burdens are gone
Highlights:

Pheasant Steak w/ Beet. Sounds disgusting (Im not really a huge beet fan) but one of the best bites I've had all year.



As stated in a previous post I basically need to make $50,000 the next two months. If I don't then the BR will have to be drawn on again, which leads to smaller games/less trips etc etc. Basically I really don't want to start paying for more life stuff out of the BR. With that in mind here are the goals for next month...

November Goals

Poker

160 hours

B game + at all times

90/10% value to bluffs
JUST VALUE BABY!

Not going to set a financial goal because its stupid but I request to the gods to run hot this month. Thank you!

As few days off as my body and mind will allow. Family time during the day, when the kids go to sleep: I'TS ON!

Saludos y gracias por leer!

Last edited by mantecaa; 10-31-2019 at 09:53 PM.
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2019, 11:10 PM   #48
CrunchyBlack
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
CrunchyBlack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: 8=====D~~~
Posts: 7,472
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Good luck in November my man
CrunchyBlack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2019, 02:09 AM   #49
QuiteBadTBH
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 45
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Awesome thread to follow. How do you feel about the security in Mexico? As a European im even scared to be over there at all ^^ even without money in my pocket lol. Maybe ive just heard too much **** and its not all that bad?
QuiteBadTBH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-24-2019, 02:18 PM   #50
mantecaa
centurion
 
mantecaa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 102
Re: Fighting out of the Downswing// $250k Year Live Pokers in Mexico

Writing this post sitting in the airport going on the first poker trip of the challenge, a quick little 3/4 day San Diego/LA trip before the thanksgiving feast back in Mex.

November Update:
Volume has been great, putting in the hours whenever the games run.
Games have been ok, but the stakes have definitely seen a bounce upwards as some of the "seasonal" bigger games have started to run. Bigger but less games and less hours.
Mental game has been strong.
Results not so great. As has been the case the last few months running poorly at the highest stakes is not fun.
Aprox. -$10k usd on the month

Few of the lowlights include:
-set under set against spew guy in 12k pot.
-Losing two runs AI OTF our AJ < T8o on J 98 5k pot
-I had to turn down my friend who is an amazing captain down here and wanted a stake for one of the tuna fishing tournaments. I always buy his action if he offers it, he is regarded as one of the best. Naturally when I don't have the $ to spend on something gambley like this he binks the tournament with a 112kg tuna for $240k. My 4k would have been 80k

Highlights:
-Won a 2k HU sng against a visiting dentist from Lebanon who asked me to flip at the end of a session and I suggested HU instead. He snap accepted. Going to start going with this strategy more when people want to flip.
- Despite missing out on the fishing tourney, I Had 20% of a friends 1k final table, roughly 8k score for me which was a really nice shot in the arm. He sold all the action for the trip almost 3 months ago and I had completely forgotten about my $220 piece, so that was a nice text to get!

An annoying spot
Playing 10/25 with the occasional 50
Roughly 8k effective w/ SB

About 6 hours into the session and 5 handed. We are winning about 4k and in for 6k.

Straddle to $50 is on
We are dealt
AQ
Raise to $200

SB calls everyone else folds.

SB is from LA, has a vacation home down here, pretty splashy but tough and aggressive. I've played maybe 20hrs total with him and my read is that he probably overbluffs a bit but I don't weight this too heavily. He plays in some of the huge private games in LA and the $ doesn't mean much to him.

Flop ($450)
439
chk/chk

Turn ($450)
9

chk/ we bet $325 / he raises to 2k / we call

River ($4400)
2

Complete Board
43992

SB shoves for roughly 6k.
We ????


Heading stateside for 3-4 days of solid grinding 12-15 hours a day @ 5/10+ before going home for our annual Thanksgiving feast and party. VAMO!

MonthlyStats (November 1-24th)
Live Hours: 104
Profit: -$10,574
Online: 0 hours/0 $

Full Challenge Stats: (October 1-today)
Combined Totals : - $3020
mantecaa is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:27 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive