Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread

11-04-2015 , 02:10 AM
Played a 5hr/3k hand session at 200/100NL. Ran $200 below ev.

+211.21
FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
11-04-2015 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatNsweaty
Also atm I play with disregard to the $ as long as I think the play is correct, like losing the $1600 at 200NL in that one pot vs rec awhile ago, or losing a few buy-ins at 500NL in Sept doesn't really effect me. Not sure how it would effect me if I had the stress of worrying about my BR and that I need to make x this month and such.
You really meant "affect". I haven't read your entire thread, but this is the only error I've ever found in any of your posts and it has little to do w/poker. Sorry to be such a bitch. I admire your game all around. Keep crushing sir!
FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
11-07-2015 , 01:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdNealy
You really meant "affect". I haven't read your entire thread, but this is the only error I've ever found in any of your posts and it has little to do w/poker. Sorry to be such a bitch. I admire your game all around. Keep crushing sir!
Thx.

Tried to play a session tonight, site has latency issues and was annoying so I'll just fire one up tomorrow maybe.
FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
11-07-2015 , 05:07 AM
Played a 40 min sess, didn't really feel like playing so stopped session and sweat someone else that was playing.

Prior session I played for 30 mins before latency issue happened.
+7.32
40 min session after that.
+152.08
FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
11-09-2015 , 12:48 AM
Played a 1hr session 6 tabling 50NL. All the tables were good, just wasn't in the mood to play that much tonight.
+269.34

Crappy spot vs 2 recs. Figured when BB raises otf they always have a flush here, with MP just smooth calling they either have the nut flush, or the draw to the nut flush. I know this spot is close, not sure if it's marginally + or - ev. Given that BB who I assumed had the flush was short and MP who I thought had the nut flush or nfd in which they are 100bb eff with us, I figured shoving would be better.
[converted_hand][hand_history]Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $146.57 (293.1 bb)
BB: $38.54 (77.1 bb)
MP: $101.60 (203.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $50.38 (100.8 bb)
BTN: $33.91 (67.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4 4
MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) K 4 5 (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $4.68, Hero calls $4.68, BB raises to $18.72, MP calls $14.04, Hero raises to $48.38 and is all-in, BB calls $17.82 and is all-in, MP calls $29.66

Vs unknown but they looking to be a passive rec. Not sure if over shoving river is profitable vs psb or 2xpsb otr. Since they are unknown and I am unknown to them I try to rep that I'm a complete fish that just completed the flush and am oblivious that a boat beats me when called.
    Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $65.84 (131.7 bb)
    BB: $57.28 (114.6 bb)
    Hero (MP): $56.26 (112.5 bb)
    CO: $56.25 (112.5 bb)
    BTN: $20 (40 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A 9
    Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

    Flop: ($3.75) A T A (2 players)
    Hero bets $1, CO calls $1

    Turn: ($5.75) A (2 players)
    Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

    River: ($11.75) 4 (2 players)
    Hero bets $50.76 and is all-in, CO calls $50.75 and is all-in

    Spoiler:
    Results: $113.25 pot ($2.76 rake)
    Final Board: A T A A 4
    Hero showed A 9 and won $110.49 ($54.24 net)
    CO showed K 9 and lost (-$56.25 net)


    xb otf feigning weakness doesn't work when villain has the nuts.
      Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $19.25 (38.5 bb)
      MP: $58.78 (117.6 bb)
      CO: $40.89 (81.8 bb)
      BTN: $43.60 (87.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
      MP folds, CO raises to $1.75, BTN folds, Hero raises to $5.75, BB folds, CO calls $4

      Flop: ($12) 2 5 5 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($12) Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.50, CO raises to $15, Hero raises to $44.25 and is all-in, CO calls $20.14 and is all-in

      River: ($82.28) T (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      Spoiler:
      Results: $82.28 pot ($2.75 rake)
      Final Board: 2 5 5 Q T
      Hero showed A A and lost (-$40.89 net)
      CO showed 2 2 and won $79.53 ($38.64 net)


      Works when they don't have the nuts tho.
        Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        SB: $83.98 (168 bb)
        Hero (BB): $126.50 (253 bb)
        MP: $13.40 (26.8 bb)
        CO: $49.55 (99.1 bb)
        BTN: $112.61 (225.2 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
        MP folds, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $7, CO calls $5.50, BTN folds

        Flop: ($15.75) A 2 8 (2 players)
        Hero checks, CO checks

        Turn: ($15.75) 7 (2 players)
        Hero bets $9, CO raises to $42.55 and is all-in, Hero calls $33.55

        River: ($100.85) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

        Spoiler:
        Results: $100.85 pot ($2.75 rake)
        Final Board: A 2 8 7 5
        Hero showed K A and won $98.10 ($48.55 net)
        CO showed J A and lost (-$49.55 net)


        Hate spots like this since. I should vb rivers since villain can hero with Tx and maybe some pp's since the A is a good card for me to bluff so I feel vb'ing is the right play. Part I hate is when I get raised in a spot where I don't expect villains to raise. Villain reps very narrow when they raise, should I always be calling here hoping for a chop most of the times and expecting to lose once in awhile to better? Villain is unknown, but looking to be aggro.
        [converted_hand][hand_history]Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        Hero (SB): $60.04 (120.1 bb)
        BB: $80.63 (161.3 bb)
        MP: $26.64 (53.3 bb)
        CO: $50 (100 bb)
        BTN: $50 (100 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is SB with Q A
        2 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $4.50, BTN folds

        Flop: ($11.50) T 8 8 (2 players)
        Hero bets $5.75, BB calls $5.75

        Turn: ($23) 8 (2 players)
        Hero checks, BB checks

        River: ($23) A (2 players)
        Hero bets $7.50, BB raises to $28, Hero ???
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        11-09-2015 , 03:00 AM
        obvious call w/ AQ, you could have induced
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        11-10-2015 , 12:01 PM
        Made a $1k withdrawal for a total of $8k for this site.

        Played a 1hr session 6 tabling 50NL, not picking up neighbor's wifi signals so I got booted from site. That geo-location is such a pain in the a$$ sometimes...
        +173.16

        Quote:
        Originally Posted by Brokenstars
        obvious call w/ AQ, you could have induced
        Yeah you're probably right, that sizing could have induced. Ended up folding cuz I'm a nit.

        Graph of this month so far, got in more volume than expected these 10 days.
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        11-10-2015 , 06:01 PM
        Stop cashing out you nit
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        11-12-2015 , 05:40 AM
        Quote:
        Originally Posted by Brokenstars
        Stop cashing out you nit
        You first.

        Played a 20min/41 hand session this morning, one tabling 200NL, was on wait list for the only 100NL table open, but got geo-location booted once again...
        Will look into a gadget that strengthens my computer's wifi detection. I know they make one, just don't know what it's called.

        +$152.47
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        11-13-2015 , 06:40 PM
        Played a 40 min/289 hand session this morning before I got booted again. Played a 3hr/1450 hand session later on during the day.

        +330

        Contemplated folding river since a lot of villain's range should be checking back there. Sigh spot since I put villain on boats when they bet the river.
        Pacific, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        SB: $91.87 (91.9 bb)
        BB: $100 (100 bb)
        CO: $140.84 (140.8 bb)
        Hero (BTN): $224.48 (224.5 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is BTN with A 3
        CO folds, Hero raises to $2.62, SB calls $2.12, BB calls $1.62

        Flop: ($7.86) 2 5 4 (3 players)
        SB checks, BB bets $5.89, Hero calls $5.89, SB folds

        Turn: ($19.64) 2 (2 players)
        BB bets $14.73, Hero calls $14.73

        River: ($49.10) A (2 players)
        BB bets $36.82, Hero ???

        Last edited by fatNsweaty; 11-13-2015 at 06:45 PM.
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        11-14-2015 , 01:12 PM
        Without providing any specific stats this seems like a pretty easy call to me, but what do I know. Us not having the As is even cooler.
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        11-14-2015 , 06:59 PM
        Quote:
        Originally Posted by ZXZ
        Without providing any specific stats this seems like a pretty easy call to me, but what do I know. Us not having the As is even cooler.
        Villain is 27/20/2.9 3b 8.4% Donks 19% 629 hand sample. I've played with this villain before they can be solid, but once in awhile I have seen them spew and turn weird hands into bluffs.
        Given that this pot was 3 way with a rec in the middle, I don't see villain spewing in this spot. Their sizings and line seemed super strong to me.

        Played a 4.5hr/1944 hand session at 100NL. Was one of those sessions where I kept running into the top of ppl's ranges. Probably spewed in a few pots as a result. Also had terrible board run outs, nothing was going right.
        -$436.33
        FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
        12-03-2015 , 09:17 PM
        Didn't play after my previous post for November. Had some things going on, and also just didn't have any ambition to play.

        Graph of last month


        Played a 2hr session today 6 tabling 50NL. A bit rusty, made a few bad plays, though nothing really went my way that session.
        -$327

        Villain is a reg, can't remember if they are good or bad, but since I can't recall from memory they probably aren't good. They are playing 31/21/af 1.8 3b 7.2 over small sample of 250 hands. 2 major points in this hand is how villain plays their range and how light they will call me down. Pretty sure this villain has an idea of how I play since I remember playing with them many times before. So otr given my image I think they should be calling somewhat light, like KJs should be calling I think. Then the only problem is how they play their range, since I was assuming they weren't that good, I don't expect them to check flop with some weak Kx for them to be able to call my river bet with. TT-QQ could play this way and maybe I'd get a hero call from them? I think they fold vs turn raise though so I can't really include them. AK, KQ should be betting otf, as well as flush draws and backdoor sd/fd's. I think it's reasonable that AA sometimes checks flop and let me just barrel into that since I'm aggressive. AQdd could be played a multiple of ways. So by the river as played I'm not getting called from any fd's which villain shouldn't have many, KK, and sometimes AA. Not sure if just having KK/AA is an unreasonable range to put villain on for the range that they call rivers with, and I don't expect for villain to play AA like this that often.
        Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
        Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

        SB: $71.19 (142.4 bb)
        BB: $58.99 (118 bb)
        UTG: $60.91 (121.8 bb)
        MP: $67.83 (135.7 bb)
        Hero (CO): $64.03 (128.1 bb)
        BTN: $56.72 (113.4 bb)

        Preflop: Hero is CO with 2 2
        2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN folds, SB raises to $5.25, BB folds, Hero calls $3.75

        Flop: ($11) K 9 2 (2 players)
        SB checks, Hero checks

        Turn: ($11) 4 (2 players)
        SB bets $6.50, Hero raises to $19.50, SB calls $13

        River: ($50) 4 (2 players)
        SB checks, Hero ???

        I dunno.
          Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
          Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

          SB: $50 (100 bb)
          BB: $55.46 (110.9 bb)
          UTG: $50 (100 bb)
          MP: $39.16 (78.3 bb)
          Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
          BTN: $82.12 (164.2 bb)

          Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
          2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

          Flop: ($3.75) 5 7 6 (2 players)
          Hero checks, BTN bets $2.81, Hero raises to $9, BTN calls $6.19

          Turn: ($21.75) 7 (2 players)
          Hero bets $12.50, BTN calls $12.50

          River: ($46.75) 2 (2 players)
          Hero bets $27 and is all-in, BTN calls $27

          Spoiler:
          Results: $100.75 pot ($2.75 rake)
          Final Board: 5 7 6 7 2
          Hero showed A K and lost (-$50 net)
          BTN showed 4 2 and won $98 ($48 net)


          Another I dunno.
            Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
            Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

            SB: $68.27 (136.5 bb)
            Hero (BB): $50 (100 bb)
            MP: $21.45 (42.9 bb)
            CO: $52.97 (105.9 bb)
            BTN: $58.79 (117.6 bb)

            Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
            MP calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, MP calls $2

            Flop: ($5.25) 9 Q 8 (2 players)
            Hero bets $2.62, MP calls $2.62

            Turn: ($10.49) 2 (2 players)
            Hero bets $5.24, MP calls $5.24

            River: ($20.97) 7 (2 players)
            Hero bets $12, MP calls $11.09 and is all-in

            Spoiler:
            Results: $43.15 pot ($2.39 rake)
            Final Board: 9 Q 8 2 7
            Hero showed J A and lost (-$21.45 net)
            MP showed 9 6 and won $40.76 ($19.31 net)


            Was gonna xb otr but since recs been calling me light all day, might as well vb thin here.
              Pacific, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
              Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

              SB: $42.19 (84.4 bb)
              Hero (BB): $50.75 (101.5 bb)
              MP: $32.63 (65.3 bb)
              CO: $46.48 (93 bb)
              BTN: $216.72 (433.4 bb)

              Preflop: Hero is BB with Q J
              2 folds, BTN raises to $1, SB calls $0.75, Hero raises to $5, BTN folds, SB calls $4

              Flop: ($11) 4 J 2 (2 players)
              SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, SB calls $5.50

              Turn: ($22) 7 (2 players)
              SB checks, Hero bets $12.50, SB calls $12.50

              River: ($47) 7 (2 players)
              SB checks, Hero bets $20.81, SB calls $19.19 and is all-in

              Spoiler:
              Results: $85.38 pot ($2.75 rake)
              Final Board: 4 J 2 7 7
              SB showed A J and won $82.63 ($40.44 net)
              Hero showed Q J and won $0.00 (-$42.19 net)
              FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
              12-03-2015 , 09:33 PM
              Quote:
              Originally Posted by Brokenstars
              Stop cashing out you nit
              lmao!!
              FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
              12-03-2015 , 09:54 PM
              Lol at the I dunno hands...the skill level of wsop 50nl has really dipped down. I remember a time when it was pretty reg infested. For the first hand id go b/b/b. As played I think river is def a shove
              FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
              12-04-2015 , 05:25 AM
              Quote:
              Originally Posted by TTTTTTTTWO
              Lol at the I dunno hands...the skill level of wsop 50nl has really dipped down. I remember a time when it was pretty reg infested. For the first hand id go b/b/b. As played I think river is def a shove
              What range would you assign villain if they go x/c, x/c, x/c if I took a b/b/b line?

              Played a 6hr session mostly at 100NL, near the end I opened up 50NL since there was only 2 tables of 100NL left. Was getting run over a lot a.k.a was getting x/r'd almost every hand I played... and it's not like I have an 80% c-bet so I dunno wtf. I don't think I was playing that well, but I don't think I was playing that bad either. -$476
              FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
              12-04-2015 , 06:48 AM
              The AKss can definitely be avoided. This isn't a combo you wanna be x/r this flop and even more so you shouldn't be bluffing this turn and river. You block the hands you're trying to fold out way too heavily, and also our opponent has huge range advantage on this turn
              FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
              12-04-2015 , 03:23 PM
              Just think that you can get value from worse hands otf and need to protect vs potential draws that he can pick up if you were to give him a free turn. If he does X/c otf and the turn isn't a brick I think you can also consider overbetting too cause it would be somewhat likely that he picks up more outs.
              FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
              12-04-2015 , 11:04 PM
              Quote:
              Originally Posted by BenaBadBeat
              The AKss can definitely be avoided. This isn't a combo you wanna be x/r this flop and even more so you shouldn't be bluffing this turn and river. You block the hands you're trying to fold out way too heavily, and also our opponent has huge range advantage on this turn
              Makes sense.

              Quote:
              Originally Posted by TTTTTTTTWO
              Just think that you can get value from worse hands otf and need to protect vs potential draws that he can pick up if you were to give him a free turn. If he does X/c otf and the turn isn't a brick I think you can also consider overbetting too cause it would be somewhat likely that he picks up more outs.
              Yeah I see your point.

              Played a 3.5hr session 6 tabling 100NL. Made some betting mistakes that I wasn't happy with, also was too loose preflop I think.
              +600
              FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
              12-08-2015 , 05:26 AM
              Played a 2 hr session, was HU for a bit.
              -603

              Not sure if this should be a fold, or if it's close.
                Pacific, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
                Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                BB: $239.58 (239.6 bb)
                Hero (SB): $173.01 (173 bb)

                Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 7
                Hero raises to $2, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $8

                Flop: ($20) 4 3 2 (2 players)
                BB bets $15, Hero calls $15

                Turn: ($50) 9 (2 players)
                BB bets $40, Hero calls $40

                River: ($130) 8 (2 players)
                BB bets $109, Hero calls $108.01 and is all-in

                Spoiler:
                Results: $346.02 pot ($1.49 rake)
                Final Board: 4 3 2 9 8
                BB showed A K and won $344.53 ($171.52 net)
                Hero showed 7 7 and lost (-$173.01 net)


                Failed triple
                  Pacific, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
                  Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                  Hero (BB): $103.67 (103.7 bb)
                  SB: $100 (100 bb)

                  Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
                  SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $7

                  Flop: ($20) 6 3 K (2 players)
                  Hero bets $10, SB calls $10

                  Turn: ($40) 5 (2 players)
                  Hero bets $22, SB calls $22

                  River: ($84) 8 (2 players)
                  Hero bets $59, SB calls $58 and is all-in

                  Spoiler:
                  Results: $200 pot ($1.50 rake)
                  Final Board: 6 3 K 5 8
                  Hero showed Q A and lost (-$101 net)
                  SB showed T K and won $199.50 ($99.50 net)


                    Pacific, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
                    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                    Hero (BB): $105.45 (105.5 bb)
                    SB: $341.25 (341.3 bb)

                    Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 9
                    SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2

                    Flop: ($6) 8 9 T (2 players)
                    Hero checks, SB bets $4.50, Hero raises to $15, SB raises to $39.37, Hero raises to $102.45 and is all-in, SB calls $63.08

                    Turn: ($210.90) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
                    River: ($210.90) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

                    Spoiler:
                    Results: $210.90 pot ($0.50 rake)
                    Final Board: 8 9 T J 3
                    Hero showed 8 9 and lost (-$105.45 net)
                    SB showed A 7 and won $210.40 ($104.95 net)


                      Pacific, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
                      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

                      BB: $199.50 (199.5 bb)
                      Hero (SB): $100 (100 bb)

                      Preflop: Hero is SB with T 9
                      Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $9, Hero calls $6

                      Flop: ($18) K Q 4 (2 players)
                      BB bets $10, Hero calls $10

                      Turn: ($38) J (2 players)
                      BB checks, Hero bets $22, BB calls $22

                      River: ($82) 2 (2 players)
                      BB checks, Hero bets $59 and is all-in, BB calls $59

                      Spoiler:
                      Results: $200 pot ($0.50 rake)
                      Final Board: K Q 4 J 2
                      BB showed T A and won $199.50 ($99.50 net)
                      Hero showed T 9 and lost (-$100 net)
                      FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
                      12-08-2015 , 09:07 AM
                      That call down w/ 77 is quite awful.
                      FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
                      12-08-2015 , 11:13 AM
                      Should be a river fold on 77, unless it was villain dependent for you. Was he 3betting a lot of SB/ Opens?

                      T9 should be a fold on the flop IMO, Pre is OK, think you're fine with calling or folding

                      I'm not sure stacking off 100 BB's is great with bottom 2 on such a wet board, not sure how to play that one optimally
                      FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
                      12-08-2015 , 02:41 PM
                      77 should be a call on the river. It's way too high up in our range for HU. I am assuming we're opening standard 80% from SB for HU and defending at least half of our range. If we look at the range we get to OTR, our range is capped at 99 (possibly 3 combos of top sets if we do slowplay).


                      This is GTO vs unknown though.

                      Last edited by fast11375; 12-08-2015 at 03:08 PM.
                      FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
                      12-08-2015 , 03:28 PM
                      Edit:

                      I didn't notice that it was HU...77 probs closer to call then

                      109 definitely call pre...flop I think I'd fall but calling I don't think is awful

                      89 seems fine
                      FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote
                      12-08-2015 , 07:34 PM
                      In regards to the 77 hand.

                      There is a total of 1,326 combos of hands (52*51/2).

                      (ignore blocker mathematics in regards to the following)

                      For the 77 hand if we just take minimum defense frequencies as a base line to try to get an idea of how many combos we should be calling with on the river then it would look like the follow.

                      For the first part of the hand (preflop), we are getting 3b to $10, meaning villain is risking $9 to win a pot of $13, so 9/13, meaning if we fold that often or more he auto profits with atc.

                      9/13 = 0.692
                      1 - 0.692 = 0.308

                      Flop villain bets $15 into $20

                      15/35 = 0.4285
                      1 - 0.4285) = 0.5715

                      Turn villain bets $40 into $50, so he is again risking $40 to win a pot of $90

                      4/9 = 0.444
                      1 - 0.444 = 0.556

                      River is $108 into $130

                      108/346 = 0.312
                      1 - 0.312 = 0.689

                      If we follow the assumption you're only opening 80% of hands (although I know you definitely are opening wider than that for 2x...)

                      1326 combos*0.80*0.308*0.5715*0.556*0.689 = 71.5

                      This basically means you should defend river with ~71.5 combos (probably a bit more since you're opening wider than 80%)

                      However..... Keep in mind that calling down with something weaker than 77 that may block more of his value range and less of his bluffing range could be a better candidate to call down with. Also, keep in mind that MDF isn't overly great, but it should definitely give an idea about how often we need to be defending river on boards where villain doesn't have a significant range advantage (and he doesn't, depending on his 3b range construction)

                      Anyways, call down seems OK assuming he is tripling enough bluffs
                      FatNsweaty's 2015 grind thread Quote

                            
                      m