You wrote this at a good time because I have been journaling a lot about this and am in the midst of a rough stretch.



At the moment, I'm in a bit of makeup, nothing that I couldn't pay but I have realized that I have bit off a bit more than I can chew.

I thought for a while about writing this because I felt ashamed and a bit humbled, but I have come to the realization that I simply cannot handle the variance of playing poker for thousands of dollars, at least at this point in time. I didn't grow up with money and when I first started winning at 500nl+ I thought I was the man, breadwinner, crusher etc. But now playing 1knl for just 10k hands, I am on the verge of tears even if I lose a couple thousand in a session, which is a perfectly normal swing. I was playing 200nl in September and rose up a bit too quickly, and I think my stakers kind of pushed me into moving up too fast even if I wasn't rolled to undertake the debt risk. I didn't even have proven samples at midstakes before I started grinding 5/10(2) games.

Of course, I've still made ~11k since I made this blog, despite losing almost 8k today. But mentally, I don't have what it takes. At the moment.

I think the highest EV thing for me to do now, is prioritize on becoming the best poker player possible and forget about the strict EV. The 5/10 games can wait, and my plan is to go off stake for a couple months, grind 200nl on [site tbd], and get into a daily sustainable study routine.

I think my hourly might get hurt by 20-40%, but honestly, its more important at this stage in my life to develop a strong mindset and strategy than it is to win 10$ more an hour.

I will update the thread when specifics are finalized

First I want to say I have been following your blog and I am rooting for you to succeed along with anyone else who has a dream and pursues it.

This may come across as me being an ******* but have you thought about investing in coaching? From your graphs alone its pretty obvious that you have some big leaks. No good reg at 500+ is going to have sustained success with a redline that falls off a cliff. Theres a lot of different reasons this would be the case for you. I think good coaching would accelerate your progress to where you want to be.

Again I root for you, good luck going forward.

Thank you for the kind words.

I am currently getting some form of coaching from a 2knl reg (my staker), although I think the huge drop in redline is due to the format of game I'm playing with very high antes and many players going to the flop every hand I doubt any regs really have winning redlines on the site.

That being said, reason I want to stop playing these app games is partly because of the massive swings involved, but also to get a fair assessment of my skill level. If I struggle beating 200nl on GG/ACR etc. then I will know I need to reevaluate my game seriously.

It might help you deal with losing large amounts to build your own bankroll and have a minimum number of buy-ins to play a stake, if you drop below this you move down a stake. It's what I do and helps because you know a 20 BI downswing or whatever is just part of the game and you have the roll to take it and with no risk of going broke.

"I get high rakeback on both sites translating to ~600 in rakeback for the week as well"


how do u get rb on iggy???

If you’re good enough to beat 200nl online, you’ll make much more playing mid stakes live. Games are bigger and much softer.

I know you're aware that the large ante makes the swings pretty crazy but it's worth also pointing out the kind of stake jump you're actually making. Don't look at the blinds for the stake. Look at the money in the middle. I'm not sure what structures you're playing for 2/5 and lower but I'm fairly sure I know the club you're playing the 5/10 in and it's mainly the BB ante game that runs. Your standard 2/5 non-ante game has $7 in the middle. The 5/10/10 game has $85 in the middle. That's more than a non-ante 25/50 game. I'm fairly sure I know the club you're playing in and at also requires everyone to VPIP a ridiculous amount of hands or else they get booted. So it basically plays like a 50/100 game in terms of variance, just with a max BI of 1400.

Now that said if losing 10k hurts a lot, definitely move down. But when the time comes to shot take I'd recommend sticking to non-ante 5/10 or with some sort of small ante so you're not making such a massive jump next time.

That's what I've done, I have ~90bis for 200nl, would only drop down if I go down ~5-6k

Thank you, these games were definitely crazy and super high variance. Definitely not aligned with my risk tolerance and you are right about the stakes.



Played my first session at 200nl on GGpoker. The tables seem decently soft in my timezone, and from what I've heard 2-4bb/100 before rakeback is a good winrate to aim for. I'm playing ~4-5 tables and table selecting well so can hopefully get a decent wr.

Will update next week with results and some hands as these pools definitely require more technical ability

Brain teaser -

There is an island with 99 tigers and 1 sheep. If the tiger eats the sheep he becomes a sheep and can be eaten himself, will any tiger eat a sheep? Assume tigers are perfectly rational

The tigers are perfectly rational and therefore can understand the existential pressures of their predicament. On one hand, eating the sheep will provide a fantastic meal, but death shortly afterward. On the other hand, if each one of them decides to cling to life, they will experience the most violent era in tiger history once the starvation has kicked in. The solution is to move up steaks until you are heads up with the sheep.

I like the way you think, but not the correct answer.



First 5k hands on GG, feeling that the games are pretty soft and just with good table selection beatable for a decent clip. Time will tell though.

The plan regarding the stake is this - I aim to play ~10khands/week (20hrs/wk). After I build up a sample of ~100k hands, I will decide whether to try to move up to 500nl on my own roll or just go back to the stake playing 500/1k on app games, seeing what's available.

I've heard the 500 games on GG are quite tough, so probably leaning towards the latter. If I'm not winning after 100k hands will just have to reevaluate my game.

Tigers can swim and they are really good at it as well

uhh OP why are you losing 8k in a session, you need a stoploss ！

was $1500 buy ins, 8k is not a huge loss :/



been running very hot on 200nl GG, although the tables have been quite soft from what I've seen. Feels like I can't lose a session and have been absolutely flying however, and thinking that if I can put another 40k hands, have a good 3-4bb winrate pre-RB, there's a good chance I will try to shot the 500 games and from there I can make a lot of money as there is tons of liquidity.



Interesting 4bp spot, I considered a few things, including betting turn v small, but I think check to realize is good. River I feel this is one of our best bluffcatchers but how often is he really turning up w/ a bluff?

My new stock gambles are $BABA, $DLTR, $F, $SHOP, $GOOG, and $WBD.

Made a fair bit on the $COIN pump and some off meta, but lost a lot holding $GOOG and $F as well as meme stock $APRN. Overall still up ~5% since August

20k @200nl

I don't see them turn up with alot of bluffs often here since they know you probably will have AK alot so won't be bluff jamming river unless he is a spewtard with how the line is played.
Maybe he has AA/KK also as traps , Ax,JT,87,89s flushes for value and Probably any hand worse that Q will give up river but thats just my thinking. You really need to know the reg here and there are two types at 200 rush. Nits and spewtards... If he is a spewtard then calling probably is ok

200 reg tables, but yeah. I think it's hard for him to turn up with value as I see people playing their flush draws a lot more aggro otf, so would take AJcc, ATcc, JTcc out. But still very hard to come up with bluffs.

Took a shot at 500 reg tables, didn't go so well.



Although I did poorly, I don't think I was wholly outmatched. I'd guesstimate I'm ~ negative 1-2 bb pre rakeback. That being said, my roll isn't huge (about 50 buy ins) and there definitely were some spots that regs put me in tough spots I wasn't expected, for sure some are better than I.

This hand for example - think he accurately assesses I will be overbluffing and calls me light.



Here's the overall graph on GG



Plan is to keep grinding volume at 200 until the week of April 5-April10 where I will shot 500 again.

GGPoker - NL500-NL1K, most of the guys are pretty nitty and just will showdown value. Most won't run crazy bluffs against you until they know your game. Need to be careful with triples and represent wider ranges of hands and yes they will be a bit more balanced in spots so its best to assess your hand ranges and lines and just don't do something which can be exploited.

When you call you dont have much 7x in your range maybe 87,A7 and 76 only so therefore you can't rep too much when you raise flop and bomb turn.... x/c x/r b might look more like a 7 but yes when you raise flop the ranges are wider and you have so much trash.

I should have t7s 97s 75s K7s q7s vs. a MP open, that being said I would xr this board v high frequency against a 1/3 presume range bet, so it's not a huge proportion of range.

I don't think your assessment of the regs at these stakes is right, have you played much there? I think most understand they need to be somewhat balanced w/ bluffs and value.

If you have these hands ( t7s 97s 75s K7s q7s) against a MP open and your out of position you gonna get run over.... (Just look at your cold call versus EP/MP over a large sample and if your strategy is in profit then keep doing it but if you losing money you have some leaks...


Actually most are pretty nitty until you get to NL 5K. I played most of the GG Pool high stakes when I'm bored and know a decent amount of them in NL and PLO - but if you getting run over or can't beat NL500 then your bluffing too much. People aren't really as balanced as you think and I've seen this time and time again at the high stakes where you should do something which is balanced but pretty much they nearly always nutted... The style and approach I learned from the high stakes I adopt to mass grinding and it works beautifully because it beats the rake but basically the frequency or more your bluffing in spots the higher variance you gonna make your game and this is what will lead to wilder swings. Maybe when you hit 100k 200k hands you will understand.

Just play more of the regs and you will see.

Hey! Nice blog!

Is your deal for clubGG private/secret? If not I would be grateful for the info or agent contact. The only deal for clubGG I found so far is WPD deal with 35-55% rb and 5% 3bb cap rake. Which looks pretty bad. I mainly play HU and in HU 5% 3bb cap and 50%rb is close to unbeatable vs pure fish. I guess it should be much more decent for 6max cos you play much less hands and don't play so much rake.

Also that's just me being a ****** or it is really unclear how much rake does table take on ClubbGG? Even in the replayer they seem to say that a player won exactly what in the pot.

Hey, thanks!

The rake you described doesn't seem horrible depending on stakes. I would estimate it to be 8-9bb, 4-4.5bb post rb which is definitely beatable against fish and at limits up to 200 or so, at least at 6m. At HU I agree it's untenable, unfortunately I have no clue where you can play HU with decent rake out there. My deal the rb was sharply lowered, I'm playing on GG now

And yes, the rake is basically unshown in the replayer, you just have to trust the agent or do calculations yourself based off stack sizes.

oh i forgot to say I think 5/10 has a better pool and better ev than 2/5 where 2/5 I say is more regfested with people who have a better grasp of GTO where the 5/10 games are more looser, attract more fish and is much more +EV

You better off buying in 50-80 bb or whatever your preference is in a 5/10 game than to try beat the 2/5 games where I say its probably harder...