Pretty ironic Ben is, he's one of the most egotistical (in denial) players in the game, hence him doing what he does.

I'm 100% staked dude. I don't have "BRM", if I downswing, they will cover me

Unfortunate week my brother, but downswings are inevitable as you know. And you have been running quite a bit below EV so it's not as bad from a EV line perspective.

I think Top Pig got confused with your last post as it sounded like you were saying you had 60% of yourself. However, as I understand it, you are stating that you effectively lost 4.5K, but of course you cannot go broke as you would just enter makeup if you were to dip below even with your staker.

Anyway, best of luck with the poker grind, the school grind, and the grind of balancing the two of them xD

Good luck with your goals!

The problem with moving up stakes aggressively I have found is that when you run good and it can even happen over a 100k sample to sun run at 8bb/100 you never get to plug your major leaks and when these leaks gets exploited by the better regs or players in the pool you inevitable go on a downswing.

The vol you put in currently you can't really know if your a big winner or loser in the games and if you want to win consistently at 500nl or higher you need to make sure you have far less leaks and make less mistakes than the regs in that pool.

I can play nl500 but there are just too much regs and you probably fighting for 1-2 bb/100 against each other, its probably better to play in a pool where you have significant edge or if you want to put in vol to drop down limits and see if you can crush the pool there... You will soon see if you have glaring leaks which need to be fixed or not.

100-200k hands is still a small sample. My confidence in true winrates approach when it gets nearer to 500k-1M hands but it really depends on the style you play. If you have a red line, high variance style which is more suited towards the mid stakes then you will need a much bigger hand sample to know your true winrates because you need to get to EV more frequently in certain spots.

Anyway good luck with living as a pro.

I am doing this also and I'm in Thailand I have 400 buyins for my limit but yes its a safety net and I don't move up because

1) I still feel I have a ton of leaks I need to fix.
2) There are still alot of frequent spots I am not too sure about and want to get more hand samples
3) I've been booking steady profits now and want to build more reserves.

This makes a lot of sense. It's definitely a small sample and I realize that a swing like this is fairly common, I'm just focusing now on getting the volume. Hopefully should get at least 100-120k hands in before I try out being pro.

400bi is a bit extreme for me but if I was on my own roll I would want at least 100bi for sure.




This is the updated ignition graph, but there is like -3k more in losses waiting to be downloaded.

Going to dropping down to 200zone for more volume and higher winrates, that way I can get my confidence up. Would be grinding 2 500 zone 2 500 reg and staying away from the app games from now (They are higher variance and higher rake).

Personally, I believe moving up in stakes aggressively is +EV in the long run. Sure, you inevitably will end up in a game in which you are -EV, but I think there really isn't much downside since the option to move down is always there. However, it is quite easy to remain at low stakes for a very long time if you have huge volume goes and very strict BRM.

With regard to the leak exploitation point, everyone has leaks and in my experience, it is quite easy to focus in on one’s own leaks and underestimate the number of leaks others have. And for the more confident types, by having a more aggressive approach to BRM, you will likely figure out these leaks quicker as it is easy to miss your own leaks when you have a large win-rate.

That being said, BRM is just as much a mental exercise as it is a strategic one. So if you can't handle more risk, then you should be more conservative. The thing is, by being more aggressive, it can often be less risky from a time-investment standpoint.

Yes it really depends on your playstyle. If you a red line type player then you definitely gonna hit 20-40 buyin down swings often over larger samples so with 100bi you could lose 20-40% of your roll which is demoralizing knowing you need to recover.

It really depends on your psychological mindset and if you can take the losses. For me even a 20 buyin downswing I will feel the pain and luckily the most with the style I play is around 5-10 buyins max.

Poker you need to weather the bad times but if you can add more money to your roll it doesn't matter but if you use your roll for living, savings, reserve and playing you need to be able to weather the big swings and its on this forum but people have hit -50 buyin downswings also.

Volume and time and experience I found the best way to improve and be more confident.

You need to be more confident with your lines and I saw some knowledge you already lacking like the hand where you punted off with a busted flush draw for example. This is actually the worse kind of hand to barrel off with and especially on a A high board but again it depends on your villian and most will not fold AJ+ in this specific spot.

There is a huge amount of spots in 3bet pots also which I lack also studying alot of spots and this is why I don't want to move up yet and amplify my losses where I know I cannot be as nitty as I am. The mid stakes games the regs will put you in alot of tough spots the good ones and you need to know who is overbluffing or underbluffing so study and knowledge of the regular players and the pool is always good.

I see alot of regs over the six months come and go there are a very selected few which I see grinding day in and day out and those which move up, I see come back down again which tells me that most have alot of leaks and unfortunately when you play against regtards you might be overcalling in spots where you shouldn't against a good opponent so this type of misinformation skews your bias also.

I hope you share more hand histories because I definitely also love to give my 2c on some hands also.

This is a classic hare and tortoise game theory. I just prefer being the tortoise and I want to be prepared since the last option for me is going busto and its actually cant be an options.....

I don't mind sacrificing EV but I have gone broke many times in the past so yeah risk management and consistent profits for me are my main goals not just maximum profits. If I reach the same stakes at a slower pace but I have much more buffer in terms of bankroll to weather losses it will not as much stress on me and I can play much more confidently.

Definitely reasonable opinion. I will say though that with my “aggressive” approach it is super unlikely to go busto, as you only move up when you greatly surpass what you are willing to lose at the next stake level. For instance, I made 8K in 200nl and I am willing to lose 5K at 500nl. How can I go busto when I’m always willing to go down? I will forever maintain a profit in poker unless I go on over a 100 buy-in downswing.

That being said, maybe I am a losing 25nl player. In that case, I would go busto. But, my win-rates are high enough to where it is unlikely that this is the case. Additionally, I have the knowledge of someone that is profitable in small-stakes games.

These are the things one should assess. Of course I’m not advising new players to be super aggressive with BRM, rather those who have accumulated the knowledge and mindset to be able to approach any reasonably likely outcome with a strong rationale.

Really depends what you using your profits for. I don't want to use my profits to move up stakes but I'm investing my profits into stocks/crypto when the market is right since over the next few years its gonna yield me more passive income.

So if you make 8k and lose 5k yes you can move back down but why lose 5k at all? Instead look at the opportunity cost if you put the $5k into stocks or crypto. This is the way I think and why I dont move up.... Every $1k I lose right now is $1k less I can put into investments where investing in 2023/2024 is going to be the biggest opportunity of your lifetime.

If I presume I am a winning player at the stakes above my current stakes, I will make 1k more often than lose 1k. So it is more likely that I will earn more capital to invest than impend on 1k of future investment.

Also, from an investment perspective, it makes sense to be more aggressive early in adulthood so you give yourself the opportunity to be extra conservative with more money later in life.

Anyway, that’s it for me on this topic since I don't want to flood OP’s thread with our discussion, haha.

I really appreciate the discussion, I think both sides have super valid points and I think that there is no "right" strategy for bankroll management. I feel a lot more comfortable staked atm, and it allows me to pretty aggressively shottake as I don't have to worry about losing my whole roll or whatever, I can always grind it back and my stakers have faith I am +EV int he stakes I play.

I have to say that I agree more with vicpwnsypp06 in terms of shotting aggressively, since I think a lot of people actually somewhat underestimate what their winrate could be at higher stakes. If your winrate reduces a bit but the stakes double, then your EV is much higher although you suffer the consequences of higher variance.

I will 100% continue to share hands, next update for sure.

I think you nailed the points there. The is not 1 perfect strategy to poker and this also applies to bankroll management and what stakes you play. Whatever works for you should be what is best rather than doing the things you are not comfortable with. Definitely be interested in seeing how you play hands and give you my feedback on the way I play since I am sure I have a different style of play to you.

After careful consideration, I've decided to stop playing reg tables on ignition due to concerns of cheating. I will only play zone (mainly 200/500)

This was the ending graph (doesn't include another 1k of losses)



I'm going to reset my database and start from there. The good news is I can now track hands on clubGG and will be keeping records of the hands I play there and will be able to post updates and hh reviews from there. My main grind is 500/1knl on apps and trying to expand my network as best as possible.

great read so far, in gl and thanks for the advice you gave

Been a while since an update, I took a bit of a break (5 days) from poker because of some tilt issues and mindset stuff I wanted to work on. This past week I have been getting back into grinding, getting into a good rhythm with exercising, studying, playing etc. as well as school.

I dropped down to 200nl reg tables on ignition, and am playing 200-500nl on a large ROW club on GG



I played 7k hands this week (1/16-1/22), which translates to about 3 hours a day. I'm looking to increase my volume to around 4-5 hours per day and just start to build a bigger and bigger sample as well as a buffer for going into makeup, then I will probably start playing 500 9max/occasional 500zone as well as play 1knl on apps a bit more aggressively.

I get high rakeback on both sites translating to ~600 in rakeback for the week as well

My month long goals

Build up 50k sample on ignition/clubGG

Start playing 500 regularly on ignition

Meditate 10 min/day

My goals to hit before the summer

Move up to 1k on ignition and shottake 2k-5knl on app games if I can get into them

+10lbs muscle

thank you dude too, glad to see you


Thanks for reading

Would you elaborate on this?

Then I see a few posts down. You say youre going to start playing regular tables again...?

I thought there was a fair amount of RTA going on at 500nl+ 6max. Right now the bulk of my volume on ignition is with 200nl 9 max games and 200zone (as well as 200-1k clubGG), and I am probably going to continue playing those formats instead of 6m as they are a fair deal softer, and with worse regulars on average.

Once I have good volume at 500z/9m ignition and clubGG and a good deal of financial security, I will reevauate w/ my stakers to see if playing 1k+ on ignition is worth it or perhaps to play other sites, perhaps pokerstars or GG when I move countries as well as just playing as much as possible on the apps.

From my perspective I just wouldnt wanna risk having to move down stakes 10-20ish% of the time to grind out of the hole mother variance put me in. Its better to work out bigger staking deal so you can be more resilient through downswings. Just my 2 cents.

Wish you the best man, gl out there

That's fair, if I wanted to I think I could have stuck it out at higher but it was more of a mental problem. Thanks for the GLs

Anyway, was feeling a bit more confident this week and played a bit lower volume mixing 500/1k.



It's missing about 2k hands on ignition because the client has been buggy but should have those downloaded in a pinch.



^^ Interesting hand I played vs kind of a spewey reg @ 1k. Interested to hear people's thoughts on what his range looks like donking the turn and the river.

Started putting a lot more volume into the 1k games on apps and have been absolutely smashing them. Results below.



The games have some real whales and some decent regs, but they all play with crazy antes (anywhere from 0.2-1bb ante) so the strategy can be somewhat unintuitive and a lot of limping goes on. Happy with how I've been playing but of course just riding variance. Probably played ~6000 hands this week which is about 20 hours give or take.



Wild hand where a reg looked me up super light, not sure what was going on there

Also joined a boxing gym! Super excited to go in tomorrow and talk to some trainers, get a feel for the sports and start training. Going to be lots of fun.

gg lad absolutely crushing it keep it up!

And let us know how the boxing is/goes! I'm considering something like that too

tyvm man.

About boxing, went in, met a cool Dominican dude named Maximo who kind of looks like a fat joan guzman



He wanted me to start training to fight amateur, met a bunch of chill guys there and next thing I know I've agreed to come 4-5 times a week and start sparring. Had my first training session with him and felt like an idiot, felt uncoordinated, but he said it's normal for beginners. the gym is in the bronx and full of all sorts of people, but really excited to start fighting despite the nerves.

Also throwing in some stake breakdowns -



Obviously had a crazy run at 1k, but happy overall with my results at 200/500 and feel proud

As someone who stayed staked early in his career for far too long I'd encourage you to make sure you run the numbers and be sure it makes sense. It feels less risky but in reality if you are going to be moving down during standard downswings anyways the backers money isn't really doing much for you, and the cost is really high depending on your deal. You said you had a "standard" deal which I assume means 50/50 or around there. So your actual hourly for your piece isn't super different to if you just played 200nl on your own money, and may actually be lower when it's mostly 500nl action since your winrate is probably higher at 200nl. It can be worth it if you are getting coaching/access to games/etc but definitely make sure you are always evaluating every once and awhile if it's still in your best interest. Glgl