It was really uncool from them to just ban you like this with no explanation, but I think this was probably a blessing in disguise for you. If you weren't getting much value from them anymore, it's best to play for your own profit.

If you REALLY need MDA, you can always just buy ~50 mil hands for like $30 or whatever and get the data you need on your own. That's what I do and it's much cheaper.

+1

Although it costs way more than $30 (WAAAAAY MORE!!!!!!!!) for 50M 200nl hands

GL w/ the coaching. I would suggest maybe posting some more detail regarding your offering.
Like the rate you plan to charge, your target student, and any other basic stuff.

That way you don't waste a bunch of time in PMs that you could have just gotten out of the way by having that info in your post.

Important concept that piggybacks off the SBvsBB SRP trend of rainbow vs 2tone flush complete rivers.

Let's imagine you are OTB and SB 3bets preflop, you call.

There are two runouts in B30-B50-Jam line from 3BP OOP PFR and you have a 0 EV bluff catcher.

Hand #1 runout:

QT524

Hand #2 runout:

QT524

If we have a 0 EV bluff catcher on both rivers, should we call both, fold one (which one?), or fold both?

We can use filtered MDA to make the decision.



We can see from the bet sizing at 100bb stacks that our opponent should be 30weak here with a bet size of 70% pot. GTO dictates he has a range of 70% value hands and 30% bluffs, but the population data tells a different story. Opponent's are overbluffing the 2tone FCR and underbluffing the rainbow FCR. Remember, all Flush complete river's are not the same (this is a common theme in triple barrel lines).

We should call the 2tone FCR and fold the Rainbow FCR.

The samples are statistically significant, we can prove this by using Tombos (Tom from GTO Wizard) HUD Stat tool:

What is weak here? Also, do you have the % of non flushes (e.g. TPTK) that make up both triple barrel ranges? A guess here is you have more overpairs/top pairs triple barreling the Rb flop than the 2t one, and it makes some sense I believe.

Weak is set at low pair or worse.

Sorry, I don't have exact range composition for this spot.

Sometimes people over/underbluff not necessarily because of how they construct their bluffs, but because they miss value bets (or bet too thin). If this is the issue here, then the spot is not that counterintuitive anymore.

Sorry, thought the database was yours

Do we not allow a few percent for SD bias?

how would that work? on the bluff side or value side?

Grats on getting booted from your CFP! That sounded miserable. To me, it sounds like most CFPs just prey on younger players who can't afford private coaching.

Not sure if it is necessary if those hands are from bovada as I believe he would see all hole cards even if villains didn’t see showdown.

Bluff. On pokerstars, you’ll only know what any player had in the datamined hhs if the hand goes to showdown, so those graphs h2n show are only sd hands. Value calls block value by itself. Bluffcatchers usually rely on blocker effects also.

The effect is stronger if you think that villains are already overfolding vs triple barrels.

So, it’s likely that the real bluff % is always lower than the bluff % h2n shows, on sites other than bovada. Known overfolded spots need even more adjustment.

Let's say you asked them if you could create the thread with the details you've provided... and the answer was no. would you have started the thread anyway?

I come from a lawyer background so I ask before I do anything... assumptions... but if I was disenfranchised I would have carried on. You've always struck me as a free spirit ...Their loss obviously... gl in your chapter.

Glad to see someone getting use out of that HUD stat tool!

I don't think I would have (at least not initially) since I enjoyed receiving the data they provided even if I wasn't getting coached.

That being said, data does have diminishing returns when you have studied so many spots. It's also nice to actually get 100% of your own hard work, that hasn't happened in a long time.

Thanks for checking in Simon

The incentive structure of CFP definitely diminishes quickly. It's hard to align incentives to where this isn't the case. The best way to do it is probably the way I assume they do it, where when you move up, you get more individual coaching and a more favorable profit split.

Agreed, I think the best way to do this is to have a smaller group of students like bitb/patrick howard does. If you have 200+ students then you can't give the individual attention that is needed and it just becomes a cash grab.

How many students does meta have?

We had around 60-70 in the English speaking stable and I know the Portuguese one was bigger. I remember seeing the 200+ number thrown around on their IG.

This is the new CFP move. 2.5 probe sizing because it's solver approved except it's overly weak

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($500.64) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.1% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 316962]
CO ($277.66) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 9.4% | AGG: 37.1% | Hands: 117]
BTN ($142) [VPIP: 27.3% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 11]
SB ($208.40) [VPIP: 31.5% | PFR: 26.9% | AGG: 29% | Hands: 112]
BB ($230.40) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 23.2% | AGG: 28.6% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 8.3% | 4Bet: 66.7% | Cold Call: 12% | Hands: 56]
UTG ($196) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 7.7% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 40]

Dealt to Hero: J T

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $4, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $2

Hero SPR on Flop: [25.16 effective]
Flop ($9): 2 7 J
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($9): 2 7 J K
BB Bets $23 (Rem. Stack: $203.40), HERO Calls $23 (Rem. Stack: $473.64)

River ($55): 2 7 J K K
BB Checks, HERO Checks



Casual small 5bet

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($208.32) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Hands: 316962]
BB ($263.05) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 9.4% | AGG: 37.1% | Hands: 117]
UTG ($247.65) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 12.1% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 34]
HJ ($346) [VPIP: 31.5% | PFR: 26.9% | AGG: 29% | Hands: 112]
CO ($206.40) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 23.2% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 56]
BTN ($193.60) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 27% | Hands: 72]

Dealt to Hero: A Q

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $5, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $24, BB Folds, CO Raises To $53, HERO Raises To $82, CO Folds

I'm posting this because I messed this hand up. Let's check the data.

Remember how I keep saying poker is ALL about nuance, well this is the definition of nuance.

Vanilla regs (that's me) will just fold here and think nothing of it, YOU CAN'T DO THIS.

HH here.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($245.05) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.1% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 317023]
BTN ($128.66) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 11.3% | AGG: 56.5% | Hands: 54]
SB ($144.52) [VPIP: 40.9% | PFR: 4.5% | AGG: 26.9% | Hands: 44]
BB ($200) [VPIP: 29.6% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 60.9% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 71.4% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 5.9% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 15% | Hands: 54]
UTG ($294.73) [VPIP: 35.2% | PFR: 25.9% | AGG: 17.2% | Hands: 54]
HJ ($437.91) [VPIP: 40.9% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 38.9% | Hands: 23]

Dealt to Hero: A J

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $4, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $2

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.78 effective]
Flop ($9): 7 4 3
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($9): 7 4 3 A
BB Bets $8.55 (Rem. Stack: $187.45), HERO Calls $8.55 (Rem. Stack: $232.50)

River ($26.10): 7 4 3 A 5
BB Bets $37.20 (Rem. Stack: $150.25), HERO Folds



Let's look at MDA on BBvsCO SRP B70-B Filtered. Sample sizes are massive so we don't even need the HUD calculator. We know they are statistically significant.



Average Bet Size is around 70 so it should be 30weak at GTO. What do we find?

1 Gap straight draws are OVERBLUFFED

No Gap straight draws are UNDERBLUFFED

That means, there is a huge difference between

Board #1

743A5

Board #2

754A6

We should call on Board 1 but fold on Board 2.

Lesson learned!

On another note:

I've given 2 coaching lessons so far and it was fun. I'm still learning how to communicate the material effectively but I think the students were given a lot to think about and it is a nice change of pace from the usual grind. Will be grinding/studying today and post a 60k hand update in a few days.

I think this is too far in the weeds and not likely to generate much EV. If this is ignition, with the majority of the pool being probe spamming CFP regs, and fish bluffing like crazy, we know we have an indifferent bluff catcher in theory, so we just close our eyes and click call.

I agree it won't generate much EV. Most of the spots I talk about aren't high EV spots individually, but if you add them all together they will be somewhat significant.

The DB I'm using doesn't have Iggy data, I have heard bluffing frequencies are 2-3% higher on Iggy than on other sites so it's definitely closer on Board #2.

WRT to Fish, you can never call a 0EV bluff catcher vs this sizing scheme against a fish. Fish don't OB river in probe lines enough to make it an EV+ call.

1 gap straight draws are "bluffed" more than 0 gap due to myriad gutshot probes available to villain but when one of those gutshots is a 2, it's potentially slightly less bluffed.

You may want to allow a few% more for weak turn percentages as GTO will apply leverage

This is river data not turn data

Metagame getting iffy about their secret sauce is hillarious. The guys exploiting the guys exploiting the guys who are exploiting all the other guys are pissed off because one of their guys is letting the other guys know a fraction of what's up.

I think you're better off doodoo. I have personally contacted several stables by email to let them know they're not remotely good enough for me.