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Digging out of a downswing at live <img / Digging out of a downswing at live <img /

04-25-2023 , 10:27 AM
Currently in the midst of my worst ever downswing at $1/$2 live. Last night I had my worst ever losing session (-$900 in 5 hours) while playing at MGM Springfield, which is about an hour from my house. On the drive back, I briefly contemplated taking a short break from poker. The conclusion that I came to was that instead of taking a break, I want to double-down on studying and improving my game. I'm starting this blog to document and hold myself accountable.

I play live once or twice a week, usually at Mohegan Sun in CT but I get around a bit too (last month I took a trip out to Vegas, for example). I started playing poker online at the start of the pandemic in March 2020. I taught myself how to play by watching YouTube videos mostly, and grinding a lot in exceptionally soft microstakes games on Bovada. I started playing live in April 2021 and have been a small but steady winner. At this point I've played just shy of 300 hours live, so I still have a long way to go to become a proven winner at live poker though.

I've been feeling more and more comfortable playing live and my results were really good at the start of 2023, though I imagine that was mostly attributable to positive variance. I had my biggest ever win in February 2023 and this downswing started soon after.

So what's the plan?

I want to study for at least 5 hours a week. I have a real job and am a new father, so I don't have too much time to devote to poker. I usually play about 5 hours a week though, so I'll plan on trying to match study and play time 1:1. I just signed up for Crush Live Poker (my first ever training site membership) using a discount I received, so this will help facilitate my study.

I also want to get back to being a consistent winner at microstakes online. After grinding out a bankroll at 5NL on Bovada over my first year playing, I moved up to 10NL and then took some shots at 25NL. I ran bad for an extended period and got frustrated with my own bad play, so I quit playing online about a year ago. I've played inconsistently since then, and have found myself punting a lot when I do play. I'm going to try and play some short, focused sessions at 5 and 10NL and review those hands in a meaningful way afterwards using PokerTracker.

Hopefully I will get back to winning and feeling good about my game soon enough. In the future, I'd love to take some shots at $2/$5, but my bankroll has a ways to go before then.
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04-25-2023 , 10:40 AM
Here are two hand histories from last night's session. Neither hand is too crazy or interesting, but these were the biggest pots that I won and lost.

Biggest Win:

Folds to me in HJ with $5 button straddle on and action starting with the small blind. I open 76hh to $15 and button (decent young player a bit on the LAG side) calls. $300 effective.

Flop 743r with one heart: I check and button bets $20 into $30. Call.

Turn 2: I check and button bets $30 into $70. Call.

River 8: I check and button bets $55 into $130. This card basically seems like a brick and I don't think button is ever betting one pair like 86 here. My hand is under-repped, I block the nuts, and this guy is capable. Plus the price is good. So I call quickly and he sigh mucks his hand.


Biggest Loss:

Button straddle to $5. Tighter player opens $15 in SB. BB middle aged guy calls. Whale calls in EP. I am in HJ with AKo and 3bet to $75. Original raiser folds, BB calls, whale folds. $300 effective.

Flop 823r. BB checks and I bet $50 into $180. He tank calls. I fumbled with my chips as I was betting, which didn't feel great.

Turn 5s, bringing BDFD. BB donk jams for $175 effective into $280. Gross.

This was my last hand of the night and I was already stuck $600 but I did take my time to get a count and calculate the size of the pot. I ended up calling, with the reasoning that I have 10 outs the majority of the time (so reasonably close to a pot odds call since I need 27% equity), sometimes I am ahead of AQss or AJss, and villain can maybe even have AK himself sometimes. Folding here is probably best, and I think my decision was at least partially driven by tilt, which sucks. Certainly there are much better spots to be taken at a table with multiple fish and a lot of bloated straddled pots.

He has JJ and I brick.

Last edited by Dan GK; 04-25-2023 at 10:56 AM.
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04-26-2023 , 11:37 AM
Good luck digging out of the downswing!

Yeah, really have to recognize and combat tilt, which in the last hand looks to have materialized in the form of a bit of entitlement and also being far too positive on the number of outs we have (if behind, which, let's face it, we almost always are). When computing outs, a good starting point is to take our maximum outs and see where that gets us; if that gets us around breakeven, then it's a trivial fold, because we're simply not going to have the maximum outs all of the time. A more reasonable guesstimate would have been 3 for our gutshot outs (we don't always scoop the pot every time we hit the gutshot) and perhaps 3 for our 6 overcards, for a total of closer to 6, meaning we need about 7:1. Even factoring in the occasional spazz, we're not getting remotely the correct price.

Ggogogo!,imoG
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04-26-2023 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Good luck digging out of the downswing!

Yeah, really have to recognize and combat tilt, which in the last hand looks to have materialized in the form of a bit of entitlement and also being far too positive on the number of outs we have (if behind, which, let's face it, we almost always are). When computing outs, a good starting point is to take our maximum outs and see where that gets us; if that gets us around breakeven, then it's a trivial fold, because we're simply not going to have the maximum outs all of the time. A more reasonable guesstimate would have been 3 for our gutshot outs (we don't always scoop the pot every time we hit the gutshot) and perhaps 3 for our 6 overcards, for a total of closer to 6, meaning we need about 7:1. Even factoring in the occasional spazz, we're not getting remotely the correct price.

Ggogogo!,imoG
Thanks for the encouragement and the advice. I think you are correct that I was too optimistic in my estimation that I have 10 outs the vast majority of the time in the AK hand. Certainly going to run into 88 or A8s or A4s or A5s some percentage of the time, though I do think villain has a pocket pair more often than not taking that line.

Either way though, it was not a good call and tilt played some factor. In reality, I think my opponent did me a favor donk jamming the turn there. Had he checked, that is a spot I think I would typically bluff jam myself and JJ would have a fairly easy call. Because he donked, I should have been able to fold and save $175.

In general, I think I tend to be a bit of a calling station which is a problem given that most players are not bluffing often enough. Need to get better at listening to what my opponents are telling me with their (more often than not) face up play.
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04-26-2023 , 06:26 PM
It seems like you are playing the same games as me, live 1/2 and NL10 and trying to move up to NL25 on ignition/bovada. I've also been looking at CLP. I have upswing lab now. If you are interested in study/discussion let me know via DM or in thread.

You played your big win hand on the passive side, giving up the initiative instead of cbetting. Also, RFI with 76s in the HJ seems pretty loose. I assume your check/call lines instead of cbetting were an exploitive play since you said your opponent was somewhat LAG. I think this trapping line with TPNK on a low-ish board like this makes sense against a maniac, but I'd have worried he called with a middlish pair or a suited connector or an overpair. Your line makes sense against someone who over-bluffs vs passive lines and but who flees vs aggression. Is that really your read on this guy? Against a moderate LAG, I might still have cbet and then check/call reasonable bet sizes on turn and river. Such a player is very likely to have sets and two pairs

This whole hand comes down to how much you profiled this guy as someone who wouldn't restrll

2nd hand, as discussed you can sometimes improve and still lose here. In both cases you are playing to bluff catch or draw out, when typical 1/2 player populations most places tend to call too much. That's OK as long as you have player specific tendencies and reads (like maybe in the 1st hand), but hand 2 does just seem like entitlement tilt.
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04-27-2023 , 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwtaylor
It seems like you are playing the same games as me, live 1/2 and NL10 and trying to move up to NL25 on ignition/bovada. I've also been looking at CLP. I have upswing lab now. If you are interested in study/discussion let me know via DM or in thread.

You played your big win hand on the passive side, giving up the initiative instead of cbetting. Also, RFI with 76s in the HJ seems pretty loose. I assume your check/call lines instead of cbetting were an exploitive play since you said your opponent was somewhat LAG. I think this trapping line with TPNK on a low-ish board like this makes sense against a maniac, but I'd have worried he called with a middlish pair or a suited connector or an overpair. Your line makes sense against someone who over-bluffs vs passive lines and but who flees vs aggression. Is that really your read on this guy? Against a moderate LAG, I might still have cbet and then check/call reasonable bet sizes on turn and river. Such a player is very likely to have sets and two pairs

This whole hand comes down to how much you profiled this guy as someone who wouldn't restrll

2nd hand, as discussed you can sometimes improve and still lose here. In both cases you are playing to bluff catch or draw out, when typical 1/2 player populations most places tend to call too much. That's OK as long as you have player specific tendencies and reads (like maybe in the 1st hand), but hand 2 does just seem like entitlement tilt.
Ah that's cool, nice to meet someone in the same games as me. I'd definitely be interested in some study/discussion. I could use some improvement in my methods of how to study, sometimes I am kind of lost. I thought about signing up for Upswing as well when I was playing online more than live, but ended up deciding on CLP since playing live has become more significant to me. I imagine the products are pretty different.

In the 76s hand, I think taking a line where I cbet flop before beginning to check/call makes sense. First to defend the RFI, this is a situation where the button has straddled and the blinds act first. So in this hand, both SB and BB have already folded and it's folded to me with only one player to act before the straddle. Not a spot I have looked at ranges for, but I feel like 76s would be a standard open here? Obviously I'm out of position to an aggressive player so it's certainly not a fist pump spot and I might be off base.

My read was that this player would defend a super wide range of hands in these positions. 743 felt like it was a better board for him than me, and I thought he would stab when checked to a lot. In game, I decided to check because I knew I would be able to call flop and call turn easily. Ultimately, bluff catching felt like a more comfortable option to me rather than betting and being put in a weird spot facing a raise or aggression on later streets. I did think this player was capable of bluffing but I can't say I had him pegged as a maniac after a couple hours of play. Choosing the comfortable route over the correct route is likely another leak in my game. It worked out in this situation but that obviously doesn't mean it was the optimal play.
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04-29-2023 , 09:51 PM
Got a session in today at Mohegan Sun. It was actually my second biggest win ever! Insanely fortunate to take a huge chunk out of my recent losses immediately after making this thread.

4/29/23 @ Mohegan Sun +$750 in 5 hours

Right off the bat, I was put at an above average table with all older men. Typical loose passive players, but there was some good action and a couple truly bad players. I had a bunch of good hands all day but didn't win any big pots early. I also didn't encounter any difficult spots either though.

After a few hours, I won a couple bigger pots in a row where I rivered two pair with AQo against a fish's ATo and then when I rivered a straight with J9s against a solid players AA on QTTxK. These two hands got me to a $425 stack off of a $200 buy-in. At this point, a younger LAG Asian kid sat down on my direct right. I've played with this guy a couple times before including last Saturday. I feel like I have a decent read on his game and he is super action. He plays way more than half of his hands and bluffs relentlessly. I've seen him make some huge folds though, and he bets really thin for value, so I think he knows what he is doing. Having him on my right is great and I feel like this has become a really good spot for me all of a sudden. About 90 minutes after he sits down we play the biggest pot I've ever won.

LAG kid open limps UTG off of a $500 stack. He has re-bought twice already but has been winning lately and is up quite a bit off the $300 max re-buy.

Hero opens AThh to $10 UTG+1 (I think this should clearly be bigger like $12 or even $15 - LAG kid is not limping to fold and there are a lot of loose passives behind me)

Four (!) players call in between and LAG kid overcalls so six ways to a flop.

Flop: KQ3r with 1 heart (pot: $60)

It checks to me and I choose to check, with three players to act behind me. I think I can definitely bet this hand with a nut shot and a BDFD and an obvious range advantage but I'm not super interested in trying to bluff five opponents.

An older woman bets tiny for $6 (?) and all three players call before LAG kid check-raises tiny to $25.

Weird spot, because I really want to continue but cold-calling the checkraise feels weird. At the same time, I don't think this guy ever has a good hand here? He doesn't have KK QQ or KQ in range, and wouldn't he raise way bigger with 33 or K3s? There's almost $100 in the pot and so the total betsize is super small.

I really thought about 3betting the flop but I decided to just call. I think I can still rep strength on future streets if need be. Plus, maybe I can drill the nuts against a bunch of fish. Everyone except for one other player calls too, so we're 5 (!) ways to a turn.

Turn: KQ3 5h bringing backdoor hearts (pot: $185)

Great turn for me. LAG bets $75. This bet seemed big to me at first but then I realized it's less than half pot. Still, a pretty strong action into the entire table. I didn't really think about raising here. Let's keep in some dominated draws. This time though, everyone behind us folds.

River: KQ3 5 4h completing backdoor flush (pot: $335)

Dream run out. Even better? LAG rips for ~$300. I make the absolute snap call and fast-roll my hand over. He shows K2hh for the sick cooler and I win a ~$950 pot.

Ended up playing for another hour or so before I had to leave. Much needed win. Looking forward to continuing to study and put some work in off the felt. Should be back up at Mohegan Sun next weekend.

Last edited by Dan GK; 04-29-2023 at 09:57 PM.
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05-06-2023 , 08:25 PM
Played another Saturday afternoon session at Mohegan Sun today. Pretty uneventful this time around. My table was mostly nittier older players, but I did get the chance to play with a couple truly awful players. I didn't play my best today which was frustrating, but only a small loss. I've been digging into the Crush Live Poker subscriber content a lot since I started this thread and was pretty excited to play today. Hoping I get the chance to put in another session during the week.

With this session, my 2023 total hours played have already surpassed my total hours played from 2022. My results throughout my brief live poker career have been pretty steady, but it's a super small sample size so I have a long way to go before my winrate really means anything. Here are my total results at $1/$2 (with a little $1/$3 mixed in), for anyone interested, dating back to the first time I ever played live poker in 2021.

2021: +$560 in 54.75 hours ($10.23/hr)
2022: +$944 in 125.5 hours ($7.52/hr)
2023: +$1007 in 128 hours ($7.87/hr)
Total: +$2511 in 308.25 hours ($8.15/hr)

Here are a couple hands from this session.

5/6 @ Mohegan Sun: -$50 in 5.5 hours

AhJd

Two limps to me in cut-off. I raise $15. SB cold-calls and one limper (main villain, younger loose passive calling station) calls. $250 effective.

Flop QT8cc ($45). SB check. V leads $20. I call. SB folds. (this guy doesn't fold much so I'm not super interested in turning my hand into a bluff but I'm obviously not folding Ace-high and a double gutter to a donk bet).

Turn QT8cc 9c ($85). V leads $20. I call. (I think I have the nuts in this spot when villain takes this size. In previous hands I have seen him donk $20 three streets with top pair. Maybe I should be raising here since V doesn't like to fold, but I feel like I can call and get more value on the river. If he donks $20 again, I will raise and I expect he will call a lot.)

River QT89cc 9c 2d ($125). V checks. I bet $85. He calls Q9o. (Maybe I could have stacked V with this hand if I raised turn and jammed river but that also feels like I am drastically overplaying my hand. Feels like I won close to the max here.)

JThh

Two middle aged women sit at our table. One seems to know what she is doing and the other seems like she is completely new to poker. The brand new woman is V in this hand. This is the second hand she has played. $200 effective.

Tighter middle aged guy raises $10. V calls. Hero calls BTN. BB calls.

Flop: 972r with one heart ($38). Checks to me. I bet $15. BB folds, original raiser folds, V calls. As the Dealer is about to put out the turn, V starts to showdown her hand. The Dealer catches her before she can fully expose her hand but I see two medium-low cards. It's possible other players saw her full hand but I didn't. Weird spot. I decide I am not going to bluff this hand no matter what.

Turn: 972r 2 ($68). Turn checks through.

River: 972 2 J ($68). V checks. I bet $30. Villain slowly calls. I turn my hand over immediately. Dealer announces my hand. V shrugs sheepishly. It looks like she is going to muck. Dealer encourages her to table her hand. She shows 77 lol. Easy to laugh this one off. Clearly this is the type of player one wants to play with.

AKo

V in this hand is 60ish white guy. He has played very tight passive thus far, though he has commented to me that he is very card dead. This hand came 3 hours into the session and he had open-raised only twice prior. One of the prior times, he opened to $10 over a limp and folded to my SB 3bet to $45 (I had AA).

UTG limps. V in UTG+1 raises to $10. I 3bet from MP to $30. Folds to UTG+1. He looks at his chips and counts a bit before 4betting to $90 and leaving himself with $110 behind.

Kind of a weird spot since V has obviously committed himself here, so I don't have any fold equity at all. I just decided to fold here. In the past, I would auto jam with AK for 100bb here facing a 4bet. But in the past, I feel like I have just run into the nuts a lot. Since it's live poker and this is a nittier older guy taking a super strong action, I think I can safely let it go.

Felt gross for a bit after folding in this hand. V didn't show his hand but I ran into him as he was leaving (I was up from the table) and he told me he had QQ and just decided he had to go with it.

Last edited by Dan GK; 05-06-2023 at 08:38 PM.
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05-11-2023 , 03:19 PM
Was able to get in a quick session this afternoon and booked a nice win. My table was great, way better than I expected for an early Thursday afternoon. There were a couple nitty older regulars, but also a few loose gamblers. Mohegan Sun has a new progressive high hand promo that only runs on Mondays and Thursday, so maybe this drove some action? I might have also just run hot to get seated with these guys. Couple hands below, including the biggest pot I won today. Going to post a hand in the strategy forum as well which I will leave off this post so as not to put any spoilers out there.

5/11 @ Mohegan Sun: +$300 in 2 hours

88

There are two super loose action players at my table. One is short-stacked, and the other is playing about $200. The hand immediately preceding this one, the short stack guy jammed his last $30 over 1 limp and the other action player cold-called $30 from the big blind. The limper folded, and the shortstack's A9o held vs the big blind's Q9o (!!).

The next hand I am dealt 88. There is an EP limp and I raise to $12. The short stack fish jams again, this time for $62. It folds to the other fish, who is now in the SB with $175. He starts giving a speech "wow, I actually have a hand here. This is sick. All of my hands have been cracked today." He thinks a bit and cold-calls the $62.

Action folds to me. I think 88 is good enough to go with for less than 100bb against these two, given what I've seen from them. Kind of a high variance spot given either player can have a bigger pair (though I think maybe the SB re-shoves with QQ+), but I'm certain they can both have high card hands and many smaller pairs.

I re-jam for $175 effective and the SB sigh calls. Both players have KJ and I hold on an Ace-high board.

34ss

Four players limp to me on the BTN. I overlimp. SB folds and BB checks. (I think this is probably too loose pre-flop. I have been working to play a bit tighter but still have some stuff to clean up)

Flop: Qs8s4c ($12). BB checks. First limper bets $10. Two calls. I raise to $40. First and second limper fold but the last player calls closing the action. This player is an older guy who doesn't seem to have a complete grasp of how to play casino poker. The dealer has had to talk him through some spots and he didn't know how to get a seat or buy his chips to start his session. He has about $100 behind. I'm happy my raise thinned the field. This isn't a super comfortable spot, but my plan is to jam blank turns and hope this guy folds some hands. Hard for him to be that strong here.

Turn: Qs8s4c Ad ($110). Villain donks for $40 with about $60 behind. Kind of a weird spot. I don't think he is bluffing here (maybe JTss?) and there's no fold equity. If he is somehow bluffing maybe he shuts it down on the river and I win unimproved? I call and am planning on calling off on any river that improves my hand.

River: Qs8s4c Ad 6h ($190). Villain jams pretty quickly for his last $60ish. I fold.
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05-13-2023 , 09:29 PM
Played another 5 hours at Mohegan Sun this afternoon. Bit of a roller coaster session which is not reflected at all in the final result. My table was awesome when I first sat down, with several loose and spewy younger players. I ran hot for the first hour but didn't win any real big pots. I thought I was playing really well though. I was up about $150 when I lost a flip for $500 with AK vs the TT of one of the loose young players (he opens cut-off to $10, I 3bet BTN $30, he says "I'll click it back" and makes it $60. I jammed for $250 effective and he tanked for a few minutes while repeatedly asking if I had a pair before calling it off.)

The younger players gradually left and were replaced by older nitregs, which was unfortunate. I was card dead for a period and got caught bluffing a couple times. I was down $300 at one point but got it all back. Couple hand histories below.

5/13 @ Mohegan Sun: +$7 in 5 hours

A3s

Four limps to loose younger player in SB who raises to $7. I call in BB. Three more calls. (I could 3bet here I guess but pretty happy to play this hand multi-way with position on the original raiser, especially getting a good price).

Flop: KQ3 ($35). Checks around.

Turn: KQ3 As ($35) backdoor spade draw. SB bets $15. I call (thought about raising but figured I'd let this guy continue to bluff or value-own himself with a worse Ace). UTG limper then jams for $125. Folds to SB who calls quickly. I have about $250 left.

My first instinct was to fold here but I decided to give it some thought. The dealer doesn't notice though and instead deals the river, the Th. Everyone interjects and the floor makes the standard ruling that the Th will be shuffled back into the deck and a new river will be dealt after action is completed.

Kind of an interesting river card, since it is now that much less likely that one of my opponents has JT. I think there is maybe a world where A3 is the best hand here. SB is loose enough that he could have AJ or maybe a combo draw here. Not sure what UTG has that I beat though. Maybe KQ that he slowplayed? K3s? SB could maybe have set the trap with KQ on the flop too.

I decided to make the fold. Feels like I'm crushed here a ton and it's a huge raise from UTG. I was prepared for a painful result but SB had JTss for the nuts with a re-draw. UTG had 33 and was dismayed when I told him I folded two of his outs. The river was dealt again, and it was actually the same card, the Th. SB scooped and then immediately racked up and left. Felt good about the fold.

ATdd

Few hours later. EP limper and I raise BTN to $10. SB (main Villain) calls. He is a very loose older Euro guy who is very sticky post-flop. BB calls. She is a fun woman who is pretty bad. Limper folds.

Flop: J97ddd ($30). Nuts for me. SB check. BB donk $10. I like to fastplay the flopped nut flush when I can but I don't want to squeeze SB out so I call. SB raises to $45 which is music to my ears. BB folds. I jam for SB's last $100 and he snaps. I fast roll my hand and he shrugs and says he has two pair.

The turn is a black 7. I look at him and he says "full house." Damn.

River? 8d. Forgot I had one out for a second but I drilled it. SB showed his J7o before sadly slinking away. Only my second-ever live straight flush. The first one was also a rivered one-outer, where I was All-in nuts vs. second nuts K4s vs. A9s. Guess I run hot.
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05-13-2023 , 09:33 PM


Straight flush vs. Full house picture from the above hand history. I don’t take pictures at the table often, but why not?
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05-14-2023 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan GK
Here are two hand histories from last night's session. Neither hand is too crazy or interesting, but these were the biggest pots that I won and lost.

Biggest Win:

Folds to me in HJ with $5 button straddle on and action starting with the small blind. I open 76hh to $15 and button (decent young player a bit on the LAG side) calls. $300 effective.

Flop 743r with one heart: I check and button bets $20 into $30. Call.

Turn 2: I check and button bets $30 into $70. Call.

River 8: I check and button bets $55 into $130. This card basically seems like a brick and I don't think button is ever betting one pair like 86 here. My hand is under-repped, I block the nuts, and this guy is capable. Plus the price is good. So I call quickly and he sigh mucks his hand.


Biggest Loss:

Button straddle to $5. Tighter player opens $15 in SB. BB middle aged guy calls. Whale calls in EP. I am in HJ with AKo and 3bet to $75. Original raiser folds, BB calls, whale folds. $300 effective.

Flop 823r. BB checks and I bet $50 into $180. He tank calls. I fumbled with my chips as I was betting, which didn't feel great.

Turn 5s, bringing BDFD. BB donk jams for $175 effective into $280. Gross.

This was my last hand of the night and I was already stuck $600 but I did take my time to get a count and calculate the size of the pot. I ended up calling, with the reasoning that I have 10 outs the majority of the time (so reasonably close to a pot odds call since I need 27% equity), sometimes I am ahead of AQss or AJss, and villain can maybe even have AK himself sometimes. Folding here is probably best, and I think my decision was at least partially driven by tilt, which sucks. Certainly there are much better spots to be taken at a table with multiple fish and a lot of bloated straddled pots.

He has JJ and I brick.
I'm just going to comment on the second hand. Since you point out, according to your analysis of the hand, that it's reasonably close to a pot odds call, it shouldn't matter from an EV perspective what you do (though calling will increase your variance). This, of course, can change depending on what you think the river action might be if you improve. The only other question would be whether your analysis is correct.

Mason
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05-14-2023 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Good luck digging out of the downswing!

Yeah, really have to recognize and combat tilt, which in the last hand looks to have materialized in the form of a bit of entitlement and also being far too positive on the number of outs we have (if behind, which, let's face it, we almost always are). When computing outs, a good starting point is to take our maximum outs and see where that gets us; if that gets us around breakeven, then it's a trivial fold, because we're simply not going to have the maximum outs all of the time. A more reasonable guesstimate would have been 3 for our gutshot outs (we don't always scoop the pot every time we hit the gutshot) and perhaps 3 for our 6 overcards, for a total of closer to 6, meaning we need about 7:1. Even factoring in the occasional spazz, we're not getting remotely the correct price.

Ggogogo!,imoG
This may be a better way of analyzing the situation the situation than what the OP did. However, people on tilt can't think rationally and this person, by his description in the post, certainly did think rationally.

Mason
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05-14-2023 , 12:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan GK
Thanks for the encouragement and the advice. I think you are correct that I was too optimistic in my estimation that I have 10 outs the vast majority of the time in the AK hand. Certainly going to run into 88 or A8s or A4s or A5s some percentage of the time, though I do think villain has a pocket pair more often than not taking that line.

Either way though, it was not a good call and tilt played some factor. In reality, I think my opponent did me a favor donk jamming the turn there. Had he checked, that is a spot I think I would typically bluff jam myself and JJ would have a fairly easy call. Because he donked, I should have been able to fold and save $175.

In general, I think I tend to be a bit of a calling station which is a problem given that most players are not bluffing often enough. Need to get better at listening to what my opponents are telling me with their (more often than not) face up play.
There's no tilt here. If it wasn't a good call, it means that your analysis of the situation was not accurate. If your analysis of the situation was more in line with what gobble said, I bet you would have folded.

Mason
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05-15-2023 , 07:39 PM
Mason, thanks for the feedback. I definitely feel like I was thinking rationally at the time of that hand, so maybe tilt is the wrong word. There have been a number of times in my life where I have tilted past the point of rational thought, but fortunately those situations have largely occurred while playing microstakes online. I think I assessed the situation in the AK hand reasonably well (I figured villain has a medium pocket pair most of the time, and that's what he ended up having) but upon reflection I do think the call was a mistake. I think the call is certainly on the loose and gamble-y side and that's how I tend to play when I'm stuck. When I'm winning, I tend to play tighter and more solid.

I think the fact that my playstyle varies based on the results of the session is a pretty significant leak in my mental game. It's something that I've been working to remedy. I think I do a way better job now than when I started out playing a couple years ago. Still have a ways to go though.
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05-16-2023 , 12:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan GK
Mason, thanks for the feedback. I definitely feel like I was thinking rationally at the time of that hand, so maybe tilt is the wrong word. There have been a number of times in my life where I have tilted past the point of rational thought, but fortunately those situations have largely occurred while playing microstakes online. I think I assessed the situation in the AK hand reasonably well (I figured villain has a medium pocket pair most of the time, and that's what he ended up having) but upon reflection I do think the call was a mistake. I think the call is certainly on the loose and gamble-y side and that's how I tend to play when I'm stuck. When I'm winning, I tend to play tighter and more solid.

I think the fact that my playstyle varies based on the results of the session is a pretty significant leak in my mental game. It's something that I've been working to remedy. I think I do a way better job now than when I started out playing a couple years ago. Still have a ways to go though.
This might help you:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...poker-1756469/

Mason
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05-19-2023 , 10:07 AM
Got crushed last night. Unfortunate setback, but I thought I played well enough and my table was awesome, with 3 awful players I had position on including one guy raising every hand. High variance spot and I ran bad. Got into a lot of hands including many re-raised pots so I'll share a bunch of hand histories.

5/18/23 @ Mohegan Sun: -$780 in 5 hours


KsJh

Two limps to me in CO I ISO to $15. Both limpers call.

Flop Q84ssc ($45). Checks to me I cbet $20. First limper folds and second limper (middle aged guy, loose passive but on the more solid side) calls. My cbet here is maybe a little loose on such a wet board?

Turn Q84ssc 9s ($85). Checks to me and I continue for $65. V tanks and says "wow" and then asks to see my chips. About $150 back and he covers. He calls. Think I have to double barrel on this card when I pick up so much equity. I think this guy is on the tighter side post flop and will fold a lot here. When he continues, especially after putting on the show, I think he is very strong.

River Q84ssc 9s Qh ($215). Checks to me and I check it back. Not a good card to bluff. Villain shows T7ss for the flush. He mentions he hated the river but I don't think anyone folds a flush to my jam here.

AKss

Two limps to HJ middle-aged English guy who raises to $10. I 3bet CO AKss to $35. He calls quickly. $300 effective.

Flop 755hhc ($70). Check check. This is probably a cbet spot. I think I have the best hand here a good amount. I checked to try and get to showdown easier. I feel really comfortable calling on basically every turn and evaluating river. If I'm behind I should have six outs most of the time.

Turn 755hhc 3c ($70). He bets $30. I call. Standard I think

River 755hhc 3c 7d ($130). He bets $40. I call? I think we chop a lot here. I think this player is reasonably wide and everything missed, so there should be some bluffs although this sizing certainly screams value. That said, I feel like TT+ goes bigger for value here, and QQ+ probably at least thinks about 4betting pre.

He has QJo and I win. He shakes his head in disgust and makes a comment about me taking it too far with AK.

AJdd

Three limps to BTN who raises to $10. I 3bet from SB to $55. BTN is a muscular tattoo'd middle aged man who has been raising almost every hand. I've seen him showdown hands like J5s and T7o after ISO raising pre. He is up a ton. AJs feels like the nuts here.

The third limper back-raises to $102. BTN folds. Confused by this spot. Villain here is a Spanish man in a Yankees hat. He is a very loose and mostly passive calling station type. He has showdown some wild hands after calling off rivers light. Not sure what his range is like here but I don't think I can fold pre-flop. I am calling $47 to win a pot of $167, so I need 22% equity against his range. Even if he only has KK+ (which I'm not convinced of) I have 26% equity. I call. We are $300 effective.

Flop 652ddh ($214). I check, he bets $100, I jam for ~$200, and he sigh calls. Brick run-out and he shows JJ for the win. Don't think I can do anything else on this flop. I take a quick walk to grab a snack and decompress.

KsJh

I re-bought for $300 and folded for a bit but this is the next hand I played after getting stack with AJs.

Two limps to Cut-off (same muscle/tattoo villain raising any two cards) who raises to $10. I 3bet BTN to $35. He calls. My 3bet is on the loose side but this player is unbelievably wide and I am in position. Even calling a 3bet OOP, he could be as wide as K9o or A5o or even worse here.

Flop KhJs7h ($70). He checks, I bet $40, he calls. I could go bigger here I guess.

Turn KhJs7h Ad ($150). He checks, I bet $60, he calls. This bet should probably be bigger but this is a pretty bad turn card and there isn't a ton of money behind.

River KhJs7h Ad 2d ($270). He checks. I jam for ~$165. I thought about checking back here or betting super small. Maybe going small is the move, since this jam is really thin. I think he has AQo and ATo at full frequency, plus all combos of Ax of hearts. Maybe KQ heroes too, plus J7s and K7s. Checking back seems bad, and I am trying to get better at thin value spots, especially against fish.

He snap calls with QTo. WP by him because in my head I was folding turn if he check-jammed.
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05-19-2023 , 10:17 AM
I usually bring $800 to the casino with me. I buy-in for $200 to start (100bb, which is comfortable for me given my background playing online) and then will re-buy for $300 which is the max. I don't have an official stop loss, but I refuse to pay the exorbitant casino ATM fees so $800 is effectively a stop-loss.

Last night I had a little over $100 in small bills in my wallet though, so I re-bought for 50bb after getting stacked in the final above hand history. Kind of demoralizing to be playing a shortstack against multiple whales sitting over $700 deep. The game was obviously good though, and I felt good. I don't have as much time to play as I would like so leaving the casino early on my night off felt like a waste too.

I guess next time I will bring more money so I don't end up in this spot.
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05-19-2023 , 12:28 PM
Biggest loss I've ever had in my 1/3 NL game is $1200, which was all the money I had in my wallet (cuz that was all I was bringing to the game). I learned two valuable lessons on that night. One, I absolutely cannot afford to tilt. Two, I've since always brought $2000 with me to the game so that I never feel like I have my back up against the wall (even though I've only ever booked a $1000+ loss once since then, and have been buying in to my 1/3 NL game for only $200 since 2017). Being massively overrolled (both in life and in the immediate wallet) really helps out the mental game.

FWIW, I think we made a fairly decent sized mistake with our reasoning to calling the limp/reraise with AJsooted, in that those equities are assuming we're getting to the river to realize all our equity (which we aren't almost ever). And yeah, we do have some money behind, but our IO vs RIO suck (i.e. compare what we make on A high flops vs KK to what we lose on A high flops vs AK). Pretty easy fold preflop, imo.

Ggogogo!G
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05-20-2023 , 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Biggest loss I've ever had in my 1/3 NL game is $1200, which was all the money I had in my wallet (cuz that was all I was bringing to the game). I learned two valuable lessons on that night. One, I absolutely cannot afford to tilt. Two, I've since always brought $2000 with me to the game so that I never feel like I have my back up against the wall (even though I've only ever booked a $1000+ loss once since then, and have been buying in to my 1/3 NL game for only $200 since 2017). Being massively overrolled (both in life and in the immediate wallet) really helps out the mental game.

FWIW, I think we made a fairly decent sized mistake with our reasoning to calling the limp/reraise with AJsooted, in that those equities are assuming we're getting to the river to realize all our equity (which we aren't almost ever). And yeah, we do have some money behind, but our IO vs RIO suck (i.e. compare what we make on A high flops vs KK to what we lose on A high flops vs AK). Pretty easy fold preflop, imo.

Ggogogo!G
Thanks for the feedback, GG. I do think I will start bringing more money when I play, but not sure if I will bring quite that much. Gonna have to figure out what works for me. I think I am doing a pretty good job not tilting and/or chasing losses recently despite the frequent losing sessions which makes me feel better about bringing more money.

I am willing to accept the AJs call was a mistake. Certainly calling back-raise 4bets with AJs OOP at $1/$2 is not a great proposition in general. I think if he had raised to anything larger than a minraise I would have folded, but maybe should be folding even to the minraise.

Had another tough $1/$2 session today. Will write up some hand histories tomorrow maybe but I just posted one weird spot in the strategy forum (link below). I've been on a tear online at microstakes this week which is helping keep my confidence up. Easy to forget how much easier poker is when you are running hot.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1.../#post58136375
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05-25-2023 , 03:38 PM
Took me a couple days, but here's some notes from my last session. Another losing day unfortunately. I lost a couple big All-in pots (including a flip TT vs AK, and then a draw vs. draw hand I will detail below), so there was some negative variance. I did win a big pot with AA vs. KK though, so hard to say I was running too badly. Definitely did not play my best at times this session. I've got a lot to work on with my game still.

I switched tables after about an hour of play. I'm trying to get better about game selection. Ended up working out pretty well, as I left a tight table full of older regulars and ended up playing at an action table.

5/20 @ Mohegan Sun -$325

JTss - I ISO one limp to $10 from MP. Two calls. Flop AQ7r (one spade) I cbet $15 and a tight older player to my direct left raises to $30. Limp-caller folds and I call. Turn 8. I check, he bets for $20, and I call. River J. Checks through and he wins with AKs.

I think I played this hand OK. Don't think I can fold a nut gut shot with a BDFD to a minraise heads up. On the turn I'm getting the right price to draw to a double gutter. I do wonder what would have happened if I check-raised the turn though, since his bet looks super weak.

KTss - I raise to $10 from UTG+2. Three calls. Flop A73ss. I bet $30 into $40 and only the player from above calls (tight older guy). $300 effective. Turn J. I bet $80 into $100. He shows AQs and folds.

I think this is a pretty standard bluff with the nut flush draw, especially against a tighter player. Maybe betting for a large size into three opponents is a mistake. Good result though.

KQss - New table. I open to $10 from HJ. CO calls. SB 3bets to $35. I call, CO folds. $300 effective. This is an eccentric older guy that I've played with several times. He is capable of making some moves and is pretty loose. He has already informed the table that 64s is his favorite hand and he plays it aggresively.

Flop 853ssd ($80). SB bets $50. Hero jams for $265. SB tank calls. Turn 5x. River 4x. SB shows 76dd, for flopped OESD with BDFD. Didn't think I was going to be ahead too often when I got called after jamming flop. Think I played this OK. Can maybe call flop instead of jam, but I figured I had some fold equity against Ace high and I have tons of equity against his range. I know this player isn't just 3betting preflop with the nuts like some others are.
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05-26-2023 , 12:07 PM
I think opening JTs in MP is pretty meh, but I'm very nitty preflop / have a 0% raising range strategy in ~HJ-, so I'll easily be outvoted. Cbet might also be borderline (HU probably fine, 3+ ways probably bad). Rest looks fine to this sizing, imo.

KTs, again, for nitty me this is too early an open (I actually just open fold). If you're doing fine / crushing the game / etc. then obviously do whatever you want, but if you're struggling at all then I would suggest tightening up OOP. Yeah, seems like too large a bet into this large a field, imo. And in general I wouldn't be attempting to get people to fold TP (especially when better hands can easily be in play too) but I guess it worked here.

Same thoughts on preflop for KQs, and not in love with putting in 1/8th of stacks preflop, although I guess against this guy in position (I'm guessing a reraise could be considered too). I like the flop jam with good equity and some FE.

Mostly, for anyone going thru a downswing, and perhaps those with not too many hours under their belt to not even have a good handle on whether they are even winning in their game yet (so it might even be unclear whether they are going thru a downswing versus par for the course losing), I would suggest perhaps tightening up OOP and waiting for position to play borderline / marginal hands (inb4 all the comments of how KTs/JTs are premiums, ldo).

Ggogogo!andgoodluck!G
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05-26-2023 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I think opening JTs in MP is pretty meh, but I'm very nitty preflop / have a 0% raising range strategy in ~HJ-, so I'll easily be outvoted. Cbet might also be borderline (HU probably fine, 3+ ways probably bad). Rest looks fine to this sizing, imo.

KTs, again, for nitty me this is too early an open (I actually just open fold). If you're doing fine / crushing the game / etc. then obviously do whatever you want, but if you're struggling at all then I would suggest tightening up OOP. Yeah, seems like too large a bet into this large a field, imo. And in general I wouldn't be attempting to get people to fold TP (especially when better hands can easily be in play too) but I guess it worked here.

Same thoughts on preflop for KQs, and not in love with putting in 1/8th of stacks preflop, although I guess against this guy in position (I'm guessing a reraise could be considered too). I like the flop jam with good equity and some FE.

Mostly, for anyone going thru a downswing, and perhaps those with not too many hours under their belt to not even have a good handle on whether they are even winning in their game yet (so it might even be unclear whether they are going thru a downswing versus par for the course losing), I would suggest perhaps tightening up OOP and waiting for position to play borderline / marginal hands (inb4 all the comments of how KTs/JTs are premiums, ldo).

Ggogogo!andgoodluck!G
You are for sure right that I should be tightening up OOP. I have already tightened up a bit, but JTs and KTs are both still hands I would like to play in these positions. They are both included in even the UTG RFI range from Crush Live Poker. There is certainly an argument to be made that I should be playing even tighter though, given my relative lack of experience and the recent struggles. Certainly I'm not sacrificing much EV if I overlimp JTs or if I fold KTs in UTG2, and I am definitely saving myself some potential headaches if I do so.
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06-01-2023 , 09:32 AM
Unfortunately the downswing continued last Saturday. Booked a small loss at a good action table. Made a few costly mistakes this session. I'm staying the night at Mohegan Sun in a comped room tonight, so hoping to get some good volume in. Would be nice to win, but I'll settle for playing well.

Couple briefer hand histories below since I don't have tons of time or motivation to post. Besides these hands, I also ran KK into TT on a T high board (turn Ace allowed me not to get stacked) and ran a two street bluff multiway with KQ on a JT833 board where I gave up after the front door flush draw missed and QJ won.

5/27 @ Mohegan Sun: -$133

J9dd - One limp and I raise to $12 from HJ. BTN, BB, and limper call. Flop QsJc2d ($48). Checks through. Turn 9s. BB (solid younger guy) leads $20. Limper (exceptionally loose older Asian man) calls. I raise to $65. BB jams for $147 total. Limper folds. I tank and call. River brick, he wins KTs.

Thought about making a thread about this hand in the strategy forum. I think calling the turn 3bet jam is punty. I thought about just calling the turn lead with a weaker two pair, but figured there was a lot to get value from (top pair, pair plus straight draw, combo draws). When I raised I figured I could fold to a jam, but then when BB did end up jamming I thought the price was really good and that this particular player might have some bluffs or even make this play with a hand like AQ since my line looks fishy and he is short-stacked. In hindsight, I feel like the 3bet is just basically always a better hand than J9 and I don't have enough equity to call off. Not sure if it's better to just call turn then with this in mind.

A8o - The next two hands are against a player I played with two weeks ago. Super aggressive Asian guy. Last session I saw him make several triple barrel bluffs where he turned bottom or middle pair into a bluff. Just seems to bet relentlessly.

Limped pot I check BB four ways. Flop 875hh. Checks to V who bets $10 into $8, I call. Turn 8. He bets $25 into $28, I call. River 9. He bets $45 into $78 and I call. He says "I have a 5" and I win. Think there is no question river is a call vs. this guy. Questioning if I should be raising turn, but I wanted to give this player rope. Sometimes I might lead flop here too.

AK - Same aggro V from above. He straddles. I open BTN $15 and he calls. Flop AJ7ss. I cbet $15 he calls. Turn 3s. He donks $20 into $60 I call. River 2c he blocks for $20, I call and he has AQ. Kind of think I can raise river here for value against this size, but it's possible he could then bluff 3bet? Not sure if there is any value to be had, although this player is a bit sticky and I think AK is always good against this sizing.

TT - Two limps I raise $15 in CO, both players call. Flop KsJsTx. They check and I bet $15 into $45. First limper folds, second tank calls. Turn Q. He jams his shortstack of $45. This player is younger splashy. It's a horrible turn but I have equity and I think he will jam worse hands for sure. I call. River 9s. He shows 33 and we chop. Frustrating hand but I was happy not to lose after this worst-case scenario run out.
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06-01-2023 , 12:11 PM
IMHO (of course realizing I have a very nitty style that isn't for everyone):

J9dd
- I would just overlimp preflop if I must get in the hand (also think folding is fine); HJ is overplayed in general by non-experts opening too wide too early here, imo
- I'm either/or on the flop, think a small bet or check behind is both fine
- I think we way overplayed the turn; I typically play two pears (even top two) very passively against solid opponents who can bet/fold when they know they are beat, so a raise here mostly gets better to continue and worse to fold; the fact that we have another guy in the pot likely chasing a draw isn't enough for me to deviate; having said that, SPR / commitment is almost an issue here (and that's a function of preflop); calling the all-in from a solid player is pretty bad, he should never feel he has FE with a draw against a big street raiser so we're always just walking into better

A8o
- I also just see a flop
- honestly, I often just check/fold the flop, but I'm really cool folding the best hand in $8 pots all night long if things aren't quite shaping up the way I want
- I'm fine with the rest of it / giving him rope

AK
- think I'm cool with everything up until the river
- river really comes down to whether he'll ever call a raise with worse / could put us in the blender, and this still could easily be a better hand worse than a flush simply trying to extract some value; I think it's ~ok

TT
- I'm fine with preflop
- flop really depends on SPR for me; the higher the SPR, the more a smaller bet is fine; but the smaller an SPR and the more committed we are, the more we are losing a bunch of value with small bets, imo; it sounds like one of the guys has a small stack, and if the other guy does too, then we should be PSBing this flop (or even jamming if he's only got a little over a PSB left)
- I'm also calling the turn as we're ahead of a bunch from a splashy guy getting in stacks this small

Ggoodluck!G
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