Villain was an unknown reg but is up 160k on hsdb in a 2-3 months (down like 35k vs me ) and he was sitting at 5k for quite a while without getting action, so he is by no means bad. Prob average for 5k standards, but that would be pretty good for 500NL standards, that's my guess from the limited info I have. Fwiw some bad plays dont make a bad player, poker is a battle of mistakes after all.
Results: $18,026.38 pot ($0.50 rake)
Final Board: T 2 3 Q J
SB showed K A and won $18,025.88 ($9,012.69 net)
Hero showed 6 4 and lost (-$9,013.19 net)
Obv thought he would (and should) 4b AK pre, so could bomb away on this runout
Lately I have been thinking that flatting AA-QQ/AK-AQ close to always would be a great ****ing strategy vs regs that 3bet alot and barrell alot. It's like they never make big mistakes vs small 4bets. They either fold or call if they have a hand that flops well (KQs/JTs etc). Never 5bet shove 98s. The whole argument that it is good that they call dominated hands is a joke. The times you both flop tp with AK and KQ are so rare. Close to trying to flop a set in a 4bet pot. No mistakes to be made in calling or foding to 4bets. SPR goes down when you 4bet. Very bad because you are IP.
On the other hand when you flat the 3bet aggro villains make massive mistakes vs you on a daily basis. Never ever putting you on AA/KK/AK and firing way. I think 4betting is so last season
Flatting premiums is def underrated. But still HU I'd think 4bing them will have a higher EV almost always, I think I 5b enough to make it better than flat
Seems a super obvious flat to me. I don't see other options really. I have good, not great equity, and very good implied odds (on a J)
I try to be more obsessed about trying to play the best I can, I agree EV bb/100 often will be an inaccurate measure of how well someone plays (and how well he chooses his opponents/games), but atm it's the best we got to objectively measure performance, and a pretty important stat over big samples.
I guess these could count as aha moments:
Realising I should minr 100% if someone folds his BB > 50% of the time (HU)
c/c 1p on wet boards with lots of money behind sucks.
Realising, in online poker, as long as your not playing HSNL only, you should focus on excelling in one particular game (and format, and to a certain extent even stackdepth).
Unless you're having fun, playing live is a total waste of time.
Seems a super obvious flat to me. I don't see other options really. I have good, not great equity, and very good implied odds (on a J)
really? I guess it depends on how wide he 3bets and how polarized his 3betting range is, but imo we get reverse implied odds (when we hit K or A, hes gonna have a lot of 2 pairs/straights/flushes) and he can comfortably barrel us off OTT with his draws...
So on what range do you put him on? I dont know how much is standard to 3bet btn opens in zoom but if i assign him a reasonably large range of 27% (i hope its ~right in 6max) our equity sux...
Equity looks damn good right there, are you saying it's a fold against the range you plugged because we have 40% vs that range?
27% is too wide of a range, but that doesn't really matter. It doesn't work to just plug our equity vs his 3betting range basically. There are tonnes of ways for us to win the pot without hitting, big implied odds on some of our outs, etc.
Villain did 3b 19% SB vs BTN which is fairly standard at 500NL.
Vs 19% we still have 38% which is definitely enough to call, given position, odds, and implied odds, + we could discount some under, bottom, midpairs like 22-77 (who gonna c/f most of the time) and JT, J9, Q8 who gonna c/c some of the time, which improves our equity a tiny bit more.
Results: $1,701.32 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 5 8 T 4 7
Hero showed T T and won $1,698.52 ($850.36 net)
CO mucked Q Q and lost (-$848.16 net)
Thats 8.9 EV bb/100 10.7 bb/100 over 60khands
To 'win' the challenge I would need to play 65k hands in the next 17 days and win 9 EV buyins. Sounds kinda doable, almost too easy if I don't jinx it right now
Hmmm... im still not totally sold but fair enough. I just think that winning the pot by bluffing is gonna be really tough for us.
/derail
super-sick winrate lorrenzo, nice!
Look at the hands in the range you suggested and look at the flop... You don't think he is folding any of those? He might hero call two streets with 5 high, I guess...
Results: $1,701.32 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 5 8 T 4 7
Hero showed T T and won $1,698.52 ($850.36 net)
CO mucked Q Q and lost (-$848.16 net)
You were 5bet folding ? Not trying to induce anything again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LorenzoVMatterhorn
I guess these could count as aha moments:
Realising I should minr 100% if someone folds his BB > 50% of the time (HU)
This is just simple math right ? 1,5bb/(1,5bb+1,5bb) = 0,5 . Min raise needs to work 50% of the time. Everyone should play 50%+ from the BB to combat this. Alot of regs play less.
No regs play less than 50% vs minr anymore. That was a mistake people made when everyone first started minraising because they'd always been taught to play to tight oop.
I was wondering what your range roughly is if folded to you in the SB in Zoom. I am not asking exact stats, but is it about the same as your CO opening range? I feel like I am losing a lot in the SB by just folding or raising and then c/folding flops unless I hit, and even then I don't make much. I understand it depends on who is in the BB, but any thoughts on how to play SB when folded around to you is appreciated. Cheers.
I have the opportunity to stake a nl500 zoom regular. I was wondering what you think in the longrun is an achievable goal for someone playing this limit. Over his last 100k sample he made 6ptbb, upswing or? Hes definitely not in the top 25 zoom 500 players at the moment. Thanks in advance for your input