Ah right, I forgot to mention. I'll probably end up playing some online pokers in Oct/Nov. I'll be somewhat city locked in a rainy 10C(~55F?) situation, so it seems that making some monies is probably the play. I probably won't enjoy it past the 2week mark. Hopefully I'll find something part-time to do like landscaping/building.

The plan is to play on an app, or perhaps ignition. Will start at PLO25 for a couple days, move up to PLO50 and go from there with aggressive BRM.

If I head south, I may end up doing a 1-4 week live stint in South Cali/Arizona/Texas.

Yup, this seems to be what's happening.

Got a deposit going through on an app.

Jumping back into poker is something I consider myself quite good at. It's really subjective, different people will have optimal different strategies.

In the past, I seem to always play too low for too long. I'm often afraid that the games get worse in time. I'm always worried that regs are better and fish have left. In experience, its never like this. My experience is sometimes the games have gotten better, and often they get slightly worse. Playing too low for too long seems to be the major mistake I'm making, most of the time. It may be good from a +EV emotional standpoint.. although its certainly -$EV.

Looking back at the bulk of my poker career... I was way too good to be playing 1/2-2/5 NLH for the length of time I did. My primary regret was being too timid taking shots at 5/10+ live, and spending way too much time "learning" in the micros online.

So, this time, I will not be wasting tons of time at lower stakes. The plan is something like this:
deposit $1500
play a few sessions at PLO25
play PLO50/PLO60 for a couple days
PLO100 drop down at 10BIs, take shots at 25 BIs (1-8weeks)
Mix plo100/plo200 (1-8 weeks)
PLO200 move down 10BIs, move up at 25 BIs (4 weeks+)
PLO500+ shots

If I hit a medium/large downswing early I may drop down or linger in smaller stakes to build confidence.

I'm also thinking about studying a bit more, perhaps 2-6 hours/wk. Wondering if anyone has any recommendations for training/studying material. I liked RIO in ~2015-2018.. Not sure what prices/material is like now.

I may end up doing this poker thing part/full time until Spring. I also may end up truck camping / shortterm renting somewhere in SoCal to play 5/5+ PLO. Would appreciate hearing opinions on different spots. Looking for decent 5/5 + PLO, sun, and forest and/or mountains within an hour. On first thought, it seems like San Diego would be best, maybe Vegas, or maybe rural San Jose. It would be nice to check out 1-2 spots and settle in one spot for 4-5 weeks. Building a truck camper for temp stays. Would prefer to do a month at a 1BR/studio in a quiet area.

Right, so I'm about a week getting back into PLO from a 8month+ long break.

The first day was pretty slow, I was just off in general. Glad I was playing PLO25. Didnt pick up on many bet sizing tells, was thinking too much about my range and theory while I should have been playing max exploit.

The second day I was still pretty slow, and generally stressed in life-- so it was good to continue playing plo25. I didn't adjust enough.

The third day I realized the rake at PLO25, and basically would only sit games that were really good at PLO25 or PLO50.

I started noticing whales from PLO25 sitting PLO100/200, so I went there later on in the week. This was def against my BRM.. which would be really bad news if I wasn't rolled properly. Although, I'm well rolled, even moreso now that bitcoin has decided to shoot for the moon.

Got to those stakes, and started playing those games. The games were very good, I was expecting much worse from a public site. It appears poker isn't anywhere near dead. The main issue is lack of games..

I seem to be running horrid. There was one 3b pot where I flopped the disguised nuts 3 ways, aside from that its been pretty nasty. I think I fold in 3b+ pot like 80%+.



Still unsure on the best way to study, or if its worth it. I may be getting into a 2k plo game, so I probably should sharpen up my game.

In other news, I've got almost all the tools and materials needed to start building a camper for my truck. Now, I just need decent weather...

nice, thought you were claiming awhile ago you were getting out of crypto entirely? good to see you still have some exposure. ~those who understand bitcoin, don't sell bitcoin

In regards to crypto.. I did intend on selling most of it.. But no, I didn't. I sold of a bunch between 40-63k, but its still my biggest asset by %.

As far as investments go..
I don't see myself buying more crypto anytime soon.. diversification seems too valuable, and relative prices are so high, will continue selling off slowly

In terms of good potential investments right now:

I think that community is massively undervalued.. building tribe seems like the most +EV asset imo.

Fertile land is also super +EV. acreage with good water, air, and earth. This is what is becoming increasingly scarce and has the highest absolute value on the planet for humans.

I think labor is cheap It's a good time to hire work and/or start a business. Money is cheap, inflation seems to be taking off, wages haven't moved much.

imo you should just deposit more and start at plo200 unless you're concerned about variance, i feel like you're always gonna be a +EV player (or at worst, very little -EV if rusty)

Briefly coming full circle with tmckendry and Aesah poker. Good old days!

This is good advice..

I think it is def the variance. Rust + downswing early seems like it could be a deep hole that's hard to get out of over ~300-400 hours of play this winter.



Those days may be back! We were just studying in preparing for max whale extraction.

---

I've pretty much got the truck camper ready to go. The truck is in good shape other than a slightly warped rear wheel well. The seatbelt light dings too, which is annoying. I'll try and fix that if its easy. I probably should get that taken care of before I leave.. but all the shops are super busy/$$$. I think at 305k kms (~200k miles?) I'm thinking I may be better off leaving anything that won't kill the truck within 50k miles, and shooting for that as probable max mileage. Maybe change a couple plugs/coils and do regular oil changes, anything under ~$1k.











Notes:

I'm giving the slightly oversized mattress a trial run. It's fairly new and I got it for free, with bedding. Although.. its a bit too big and a bit of an eye sore. At 5.5in in height and 1in too long, it may find its way to a new home... I may pick up some 4-4.5in foam and custom cut it. I dont need that much bed.. and it would provide easier access to storage space. Plus, I can sit up at like 70degrees on 5.5in springs.. probably could get to like 80-85degrees straight /w 4 in foam. (I'm 6'1" with a torso height of someone ~5'10") I'll see how it goes.. I don't have that much stuff, so easy access at the sides of the mattress may not be that important.

I went for being able to support ~350-400 pounds moving around on the platform. It shows no signs of moving/creeking when I'm moving around on it. I think 3 people moving around may collapse it. It would be cool to test it if I ever plan on scraping them-- it may be stronger than I think (so no 3-somes for now, sry). I put 1/2 fir plywood on 3 strips of 3/4 plywood, with the front half having an extra 3/4 strip support. Went pretty wild on fastening and pre-wood glued, wood glued, and screwed (in some cases, very deep). I can easily take out and load the thing myself, It's probably about 100-125 pounds. The topper is about 80-100 pounds, and is difficult to load/unload solo.

As far as small alterations go.. I'm going to be putting in velcro blinds, and perhaps some hooks along the sides for fast-access clothing/towels/kitchen items. There is also the option of simply using clothing/towels as partial blinds. Although, it just seems worth it to have total concealment-- particularly because my first few nights I'll be stealth camping.

I also think it would be pretty useful to be able to set up an awning type thing for shelter. rope, bungees and hooks could work in many settings... some sort of folding support poles with hooks could work in less forested spaces.. or even fixing the back part of the cap with a roof-rack type thing.
I'm sure they sell stuff like this for $50-100.

What to pack?!

Now I've got just over a week to sort out all my things, what's coming, what's being sold, what I will ship to my property...

It's a tough call on many things. I think given that I have a truck and not just a backpack... I'll probably take a bunch of stuff.

The essential list is something like this;
sleeping bag, pillows
[in medium sized tote/hanging]raincoat, rain pants, 2-3 sweaters, 5-6 t-shirts, 1 long sleeve, 2-3 shorts, 3-4 pants, ~8 underwear/socks, bathing suit, steel-toe boots, gym/casual/water shoes, 2 towels, hat, gloves 2x (plastic bag for dirty laundry)
5-10gal water jug
water filter(just realized I'll need this-- damn dirty water down south!)
2-burner stove top
1L+ fuel
[in two totes]~10pounds of dry food
[in tote]~3-5pounds of supplements/teas/spices
cookware, cutting board, mug/bottle, dr bronners
~3-5 pounds perishable foods in yeti cooler
10-15 pound toolbox
All standard backpack-travel supplies (20pounds)
ligher, rope, knive, trowel, toilet paper, aluminum foil, scissors, trash bag, paper towels, hachet

non-essentials:
tarp, bungee cords, hooks(Can I bring this over the border?)
dry bag? (seems worth it)
grounding sleeping mat
yoga mat

I think that's just about everything..
It's got to be ~150-200 pounds of stuffs when full, plus another 200+ for the platform/topper/mattress.

Quick breakdown of costs:

Wood and fixings for platform(small mill) - $140
Tall, functional canopy(marketplace)- $110
mattress, bedding, pillow, -5 sleeping bag (marketplace) - $85
lights, inverter, phone mount, headset (amazon) - $75
2 burner stove, fuel, kitchen items (marketplace/thrift stores) - $50
Other(mostly thrift stores, marketplace, retail) - $50

At ~$500(around $400usd) and under 500 pounds, I'm pretty happy with the setup. Won't put too much wear on the truck, and it was inexpensive. I would want a nicer set up for week long+ stints.. Although, I expect ~3-4 nights to be the average stay between accommodations. I'll probably be staying in cabins in exchange for 20-25hrs or work most of the winter.

I will do an update, fully packed, in about a week.

Nice to see the big girls getting some love (3-400 pound weight limit moving around on the bed)

I have travel size scale and leather belt for enforcement of weight limits

---

So I had some conversations about inflation, and realized I'm really out of touch with the mainstream or even generally informed opinions. It seems to me (someone who has been under a rock) that inflation is starting to pick up(not 3%, but like 5-10%)-- is there a growing group of people preaching this?

I even feel as though I'm "missing out" by not turning cash into capital quickly, and I'm a frugal nit.

Am I alone here? I hope so. I think the longer that expectations of inflation are low, the longer I have to spend dough.

---

In poker-related news...

It seems I'm already bored of playing.

I rather watch videos on how to harvest lumber or build than play. Only played 10 hours in the last week.

Some reflections on my game:

I'm playing too many tables. Sometimes ill lose track of the action pre if I have 4-5 tables going. Or, even worse, I'll think its a 2-3 handed hand and its 3-4 handed.

Aside from those leaks, I've been playing well. I've been value betting well, max exploiting by sizing to the whaleyness of the opponent and what I think his range strength is while generally disregarding my own range-- a key to victory.

Probably not multi-barrel bluffing v regs enough. I often will give ups after a single c/r on most run outs.

---

Canadian here (albeit in Argentina). The inflation levels combined with the surging crypto/gold prices, had me converging 150k of what I had laying around in the bank to btc/gold in a year's time (half way there) and to soon invest in a house/car/sailboat/moto. Keeping money in the bank is a BIG no-no at this time. GL

while its not exactly what you are asking wrt inflation, its a major factor. we've gotten away with the combo of low inflation + low interest rates for quite some time due to plenty of factors, but something has to pop. take from it what you will, the avg cycle of 22-27 years was interesting to me. bout dat time!

Yeah, it certainly feels like holding cash isn't a good idea.

boliver, I wasn't aware of those cyclical patterns. It does re-enforce my inclination to be light on cash/financial instruments and heavy on infrastructure.

---

irt the land...

I was mostly planning on finding people who wanted to build in exchange for living / future living situations. However, if I can't find volunteers interested in building a community... I suppose I'll have to hire labor. I def don't want monies sitting around. The volunteer turn out last year was much worse than I had anticipated. That said, I may have to build a small crew partially/fully paid...

It kind of sucks for the direction of the land, as building a community as a community feels far more powerful, to all involved. Although, I think there just aren't enough people sharing this type of community, at least in practice. As an ideal, I know many who are interested. In practice, I know very few engaged. It may end up being more of a $-for-stay type of place, particularly if its a $-to-build type of project.

What I'm thinking of spending May-Nov 2022;
$5k-30k in labor (although, 2023 may be an even better +EV for labor)
$5k-10k trailer
$5k in welding/wood working/general tools
$20k-50k building materials/infrastructure
$10-20k tractor

Another possible purchase:
Keeping eyes out for a 3/4-1 ton diesel truck in the $15k-30k range. (Thinking veg oil conversion). Seems to make a lot of sense for fuel economy and as a truck to last me until there is enough data to decide if Electric truck > Diesel truck. I'm not too sure about the buying time. I'm leaning towards buying when electric trucks pick up in sales and the truck fuel economy groups start selling diesel. Although yeah, will keep eyes out for a deal, even if its in 'meria.

Seems like the time to be spending.

---


Departure plans are all go for tomorrow morning. Heading to the USA's via ferry... and quickly down to California. There is a community there which need a bunch of help with forestry work, near Santa Cruz. It's moving up about 10C(~+20F?) and +75% sun relative to the climate I'm in now... 60-75F, perfect for working outdoors.

Will likely be spending 2-4 weeks in LA area and sure to have some live PLO adventures.

Poker has been slow. Playing on two small networks that don't have constant traffic, and action varies from slow to wild.

Update:

I'm about 3 weeks into this road trip.

Lot's going on. Breaking up with girlfriend was a huge thing a couple weeks ago. Tons of sadness for quite a few days, and some irrational anger.

The first week I spent mostly in transit, alone. On the first night I found a dead-end road in the middle of nowhere and was planning to sleep. Within 5 minutes of getting there the sheriff came to my window and asked what I was doing. I was then escorted to the nearby truck stop, which made for a poor sleep. After that, I didn't take chances and basically scouted out logging roads in/near national forests. I managed to find a long road off in the middle of nowhere between OR/CA. 1055 rd, I believe. I hung around there for a couple nights. Got to practice some yoga, hike, write, and read. There was a creek, too. It was pretty much empty. I'd see a dozen cars per day.

Mid-Oregon seems pretty wet afaik. Southern OR/Nor Cal it seems to start drying up. The lakes/rivers I saw were fairly empty, with several dozens of water marks from the last decades. Nor Cal seemed to get really dry, with water trucks being standard for many of the places I drove by, and wells being ~dry.

I had a couple days around the full moon in a off-grid remote cabin near Willits. I got to care for some goats and chickens and a sawyer taught me how to fell a tree. He was a pretty sub-par teacher, and made a couple poor cuts. Yet, I get the gist of it and its not nearly as hard as I was expecting (at least for simple cuts). It was less exciting than I expected.

I found out that goats>>chickens in terms of pets, and probably EV, too. Although, goats seem to require more work, and I'm unsure of the rewards. They weren't milking them or eating them and were essentially using them as lawnmowers and log de-barkers.

I'm also starting to see that lots of the places I've been visiting have made a ton of mistakes with various things, and generally had inefficient systems. It's sort of a good lesson to see, but sort of troubling. I'm not much of an engineer, and I'm a permaculture n00b... but there are some big mistakes everywhere.

At the first property I visited they did one thing really well. The owner spent the first year observing, and didn't do much of anything on the property. She got straight with her direction and saw how the land would move through the seasons. Then, she got chickens and goats, and begun building little structures for festivals and such.

Although, there are some strange things(mistakes?) going on. For one, they buy factory farmed chicken/milk/eggs from Safeway and they have ~30 chickens, ~20 roosters, and ~13 goats on the farm. I just can't see how that makes any sense. I mean, I get that production slows down in the winter.. but they didn't have any milk/meat stored, and I don't think they even bothered milking/butchering in general.

The second place I've been to is extremely resourceful. Pretty much all the out-building have been built from scrap wood and all the plants/soil has been ~free. It's very impressive in that regard.

On the contrary, they made large mistakes from the on-set. They didn't cut any trees but instead built around them. They have very little space for food production despite having a year-round growing season. The trees that stand have buildings all around them, and some are diseased.

They planted an orchard which doesn't get enough sun to fruit anything. In addition, the diseased trees now need to be removed.. but it takes several days to de-limb and slowly cut down.

---

I've managed to find a pretty good community with tons of projects for learning. It's in Santa Cruz, so 20-24hrs for rent/food is actually higher than min wage, with loads of flexibility.

Food waste:

I spend 4 hours a week at a composting center, mostly making soil from tons(literally, tons) of "food waste" delivered each week. The food is sorted, and some is available for shopping. Shopping is free for volunteers. I get to take as much home as I want. This last week I found organic grapes, organic peppers, organic zuc, organic apples, org sprouts, pre-made salads/meals, cashew/sunflower/hummus dips, organic free range eggs, protein shakes, etc. loads of pastries from the best bakery in town.. etc. The banana selection is the best I've ever seen in first world country. I expect I take at least $100 worth of food per week, and could take much more. It's absurd. A few dozen people take from the supplies, and there are hundreds of pounds worth of left-overs that get composted. The amount of food waste from a city of ~100k is insane.

I'm also considering getting food stamps to supplement my coffee/chocolate needs, which seem to the only foods I buy these days.

Anyways.. there is a ton going on, this is a brief catchup. I suspect I'll be sticking around Santa Cruz for at least a few weeks and may get some part-time work helping on a strawbale build.

Nada pokers in the last 2 weeks. Might happen in a few weeks+ in LA.

Really enjoyed reading your journey. Any updates?

Sweet, good to hear.

---

Brief update:

Still at the same homestead in Santa Cruz. It will be 2 months soon. It's a decent spot, and I've been enjoying most aspects. The weather has gone back to mostly sunny and warm, which is excellent.

The work here is good. I've got several days of plumbing experience. I got given the tasks other people couldn't do, and found with a quick youtube search and some common sense things worked out pretty well. I have more confidence in approaching plumbing at my place, and probably will cut down big time on expenses.

I got to build a shower, which is something else I'll be doing in the near future. It's almost done, I'll make sure to get a photo of it when I'm finished.

My favorite experience of the entire trip took place yesterday. It was a 2hour ecstatic dance. It's so easy to forget how important it is to dance, play, and connect with other humans. With such a shortage, its quite a precious commodity.

I've been having massive difficulties finding a new place to go. I've been turned down by several places, which is a first. It seems like most folks rather not trade hard work + good vibes for a tiny covid risk.

I'm frustrated by California's "conscious" community, in general. Its such a large, populated space with such an amazing climate for outdoor work/farming/building etc. I assumed there would certainly be tons of places to do work exchange.

I was wrong. When I search for volunteer exchange programs in California by the word: permaculture and availability in March I get a grand total of 14 results(and I get 14 without availability settings). I personally experienced 1 of those 14, which was the least "awake" permaculture operation I've encountered world-wide. So it's more like ~13.

When I make the same search in Vancouver Island/surrounding islands, I get 25 results. When I search within 100km(60mi?) of my super-rural property in the middle of nowhere that has 1-3 ft of snow in March + bobcats/hungry grizzlies running the streets... I get 9 results. How absurd. California has the perfect working environment and something like ~40x the population as Vancouver Island, and ~400x the population around my rural town area. Yet, it only has a relative fraction of the places open to the public and practicing permaculture?
Very lame.

Also for those +Cali peeps around here... Do keep in mind, this is a specific sub-culture. Both the term Permaculture and the exchange website are not Canadian. Although, its a similar result for related search terms... With the exception of "meditation"-- there seems to be many meditation centers which are not taking on new volunteers.

As far as I can tell, its mostly a reflection of the communities within the geographic location. This makes me angry, and sad. I do have an exchange tentatively booked for next week 6hours south of here... I'm mildly excited, but not too happy about going 6hrs south for what will probably be ~2weeks.

I'm considering heading back home to Canada next week. The weather sucks, but there is actually something to do around people who know what's up. I could probably find a space to do some exciting outdoor/diy projects(it will be colder, and wetter) within a few days. I've been shocked by the lack of connections and opportunities here around CA. Maybe I need to look in different places, or leave.

Meh, I've got a bunch to chew on over the next few days..

I'll try to not leave on such a bad note. CA is awesome for a couple reasons. Sun+70s is fantastic. There also seems to be plenty of beautiful people around.

I landed back home in Canada.

The road trip is continuing, but in Western Canada. The trip south was successful in some ways, while unsuccessful in others.

The border crossing was horrible. I crossed by ferry. I needed a vaccine passport and proof of negative PCR test within 3 days of crossing. The "check-in process" would take a few minutes for each group, as everyone had to try and pull out/show/validate documents. Upon arrival, I was the only vehicle to be pulled aside, searched, luckily without much interrogation. I still find it fascinating that the two countries that I have the most trouble entering I hold citizenship in both, and have a clean record.

---

I'm not going to bother posting too much about life update stuff. The basics are I'm going to be living in a small community for a month. Will be foraging, food prep, building, garden prep work. I'm sharing space with a chef.

---

I wanted to touch on other topics which are way more important and probably worth something if y'all are still reading what I'm writing on this blog.

I have similar messages as the past year or so:
-Bare land, particularly land where its possible to be self-reliant is the best investment right now.
-Community is going to become increasingly +EV.
-Inflation.

I'm not sure which thoughts I've expressed about more global trends on here, so I may be repeating myself a bit here. I've thought for awhile now that ~next winter will be the ~peak of the global chaos going on. It may be a very slow come down from the peak, or actions that culminate to the peak may not be felt for months.

As a short to poker players: I think anyone that's spending lots of energy trying to make/save $$ right now should quickly move into other assets/pursuits. As inflation/chaos sets in, $/hr/wages lag behind inflation and $ reserves become worth less.

I'm probably going to be seen as crazy.. but... my prediction is that food is going to become much more valuable in the next couple years. Water shouldn't be a problem for most first worlders, although food will be.

The reason I'm posting about this now is that I've been noticing a lot more censorship, and increased irrationality in the mainstream narratives.

In regards to censorship.. I think that censorship is a good indicator of corruption. Silencing others, destroying books, erasing knowledge. These seem to be very powerful and frequently used tools by corrupted centralized power. Corrupt regimes do not like freedom of speech. It's also one of the "first indicators" of war, in many cases. Banning flags / book burning or banning languages etc. usually comes just prior to, or sometimes just following a war.

Censorship in the first world has been going on for years. It's different these days, as our information sources are different. Blocking/altering search results, ostracizing opposition, and removing videos seems to be the main methods used. Those things are escalating lately... which is a very bad sign. Many sources of information I use, are being aggressively censored/blacklisted. The "Quack list" is growing larger, and becoming less visible, despite speaking louder. Political opinions contrary to the mainstream narrative are being taken down / removed from youtube/google. In my mind, this means aggressive agenda/narrative pushing. People are scared and stupid, so we are in trouble.

I'm not going to rant any more, and just share what I'm doing and perhaps people who follow this thread will consider taking similar actions.

So, I've been making bets on future trends/events for awhile and tend to be generally accurate. I'm not quite sure how to define my edge, but it seems to become increasingly less likely that its chance. One may argue that my cognitive biases are just becoming increasingly larger, and there is no edge. Perhaps, although my bets are being reflected in +assets and +wellbeing-- so I shall continue.

Given my predictions, these are my actions:

+Food security is a big priority of mine. Near-term actions:
I plan to build a small passive greenhouse, capable of passive 3-season growth.
I plan to build a small shed. It will be something like 10x8, have a small root cellar, a freezer, and shelving for bulk foods. I want to have enough food in there by Oct 1 to last until May 1, if needed.
Inoculate 100logs+ of oyster mushrooms.
Improving fishing skills/knowledge.
Get hunting license, practice shooting.

Recommended short-term actions for most people; I think gathering a couple hundred pounds of staple foods and storing it properly would be the most +EV action.

+Water security. Setting up a rainwater catch on the house with tank/pump. Setting up creek inlet to tank, and plumbing.

Recommended short-term actions for most people; I think short-term probably best to get some quality bottled water around, and avoid city water. Mostly big city water is ~closed loop with sewage.

+Energy security. Looking to buy a woodstove/fireplace. Looking to buy key parts for microhydro system.

For others; Any action to lower reliance on electricity and power companies. Acquiring panels/turbines and becoming familiar with energy systems.

---

Acting is important. Planned, conscious action. I'm really worried about panic, as that tends to lead to horrible things. Panic-y hoard-y vibes are not going to be useful. For instance, I'll be taking time to build the shed with methods that aren't super fast, but offer other benefits. I'm going to be prioritizing meditation, too. Meeting and socializing with the community, too.

Batten down the hatches!

Hell yea

Wows, didn't realize food shortages were currently in the mainstream media narrative. I went to a grocery store and just left today because the line was like 30 people deep. Got home and my mom started parroting the news to me about food shortages. lol. Well, maybe subconscious picked up on something via fb feed or something.

edit: It's nice that this is happening late winter, worst timing for a crunch would be late fall.

nice to hear your progress and thoughts on some of the current state of things. crazy world eh?
wrt cali and the lack of communities you are looking for - I left a decade ago but california is very much a place that I would expect most outsiders to hate and not have their high expectations met with what they are looking for. we have absolutely everything and its a minefield to navigate - everything is done by being 'in the know' and having connections, not so much by google searches. Spend a month in golden gate park, venice beach, santa cruz, eureka... and you'll wade through the charlatans to find the type of vibe that is fitting for you. Even LB which I remember you spent some time in has quite a few communities of your sort.

I don't understand the food issue too much, it will just cost more and people will learn to cook instead of spending $80 or whatever going to restaurants 3 times a day. An inconvenience for many, but not a travesty.

With your thoughts on arable land being valuable in a direct sense and not as an investor- is that specific to certain countries with solid infrastructure and protections? Really easy to live cheap in most of the countries in the world but there is the tradeoff in terms of safety, community, being a target. In the next few years I'll be buying something as well and contemplating what's important and not to have available locally which can be super country dependent.

example - my last cali roommate just started this place last year: https://www.cielos.co/
it's more of a smaller burning man than an eco-farm, but I'd imagine there's hundreds of variations of these

Hey, good to hear from you too.

The "in the know" California culture makes sense. I did hear about a few good places, which is more than I found online. Although they seemed to be around Mt Shasta and Yosemite, which I didn't care to venture to in Dec-Feb.

I did spend a month in Santa Cruz and got to know of a couple spaces, which I thought were good, just not quite my vibe. I probably could have branched out into more like-minded communities had I spend a bit more time, and perhaps during a more active season. I didn't hear anything about golden gate park, so that's good to know.


The food issue is complex. It can be boiled down to supply/demand issues, although there is a big distribution element, too. I'll try to break down my thoughts on it..

Top soil(arable land) has been vanishing for decades, and is vanishing at an accelerated pace. The industry standard is arable land is utterly destroyed in a decade or two by lol-agricultural practices.
Ocean health is terrible and getting worse. Same with nearly all major bodies of water. (lower food stocks)
Wild animal populations have been plummeting, and habitats disappearing. (lower food stocks)
Crop diversity is decreasing(less diversity=less resilience), and growing conditions are becoming harsher(less resilience=lower yield potential in adverse conditions)
Adverse growing conditions are becoming more frequent.

On the demand side:
Human population is increasing.

So yeah, long term supply/demand issues. The supply problems are at the root of the issue, although we won't realize many of those issues for awhile.. there is still enough supply in the present day to feed everyone. The demand thing isn't a big deal, we could easily feed 2x+ the worlds population if we actually did things in a sustainable way. The issue is that we don't do things sustainably, and increasing demand simply compounds the problem.


My prediction is that the food shortages will manifest due to distribution/supply chain fragility, not because there isn't enough food. Most of the food will rot. My understanding is that currently something like 50% of food produced for consumption becomes food waste. I think that number will continue increasing.

Something like 95%+ of food consumed (in USA) is transported in over hundreds or thousands of miles. All the food is trucked/transported on a network of roads/routes that rely on reasonable weather conditions, working/able-bodied truck/boat drivers, and automated electronic systems.

The supply chain is run on "Just in Time" inventory management. Essentially, food retailers minimize overstock as much as possible to keep margins high, so they have low supplies of food and rely on constant feeding from the truck drivers.
That whole inventory management system is electronic, which relies on functioning power grids.
Everything relies on roads/transport routes, and the people working on those routes.

There is a lot of potential for failure, but a couple weak points where its likely to occur.

Keep in mind, overstocks are low so a short period of under-supply of food will quickly lead to empty grocery stores.

What will probably happen(As the weakest link are the roads, imo):

Intense weather events will severely impair ability to deliver goods, emptying shelves and leading to panic, which will lead to hoarding and further shortages for most. Some will have way too much food, and probably most of it will spoil due to poor storage.

The other reasonably possible event is electronics failure. It's the second weakest link, and becomes weaker as more is out-sourced to robotics.
Possible event 2: Grid failures due to solar and/or earth weather conditions will wreck havoc on inventory management systems, communication/ordering, self-driving cars ect., which will lead to shortages.

It's also very possible that both of those things happen around the same time, during winter, in conjunction with food shortages being intensified/prolonged by poor government response (with the purpose to arouse discrimination to enemies and/or compliance to the state).

The above would be the least likely and worst case scenario. It would surely lead to many deaths, and probably war. I think its unlikely, but possible.

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In terms of land value, again I think its complex.
I believe that the unlikely event of global chaos(looting/gangs taking over etc.) is under-estimated.
I also believe that the infrastructure/protection of first world governments is over-estimated.
I think that good water is massively undervalued, and bad water overvalued.
So yeah, I'm not sure what coefficient to assign to the factors.
I suppose the worst value land would be acreage that relies on third-world government infrastructure(particularly water/power). Probably the best value land would be acreage that is in the third world, and very far removed from third-world society with water/power systems available. I think this is probably the best value, but would take many years and tons of man-power to develop.

Cielos looks like a good time..

Spring update~

I got back to the land on March 28th. Many thing have been happening.

I got a new bell tent at a nice discount, and had a volunteer helping for just over a month in it. It's going to be housing a new volunteer coming in a few days.

So yeah, I'm off to a pretty good start, and I expect it will continue. I may even finish more than I thought. I'm probably going to start hiring labor to do some tasks that take lots of research/learning time + risk.

It looks like more people are coming to the property than I expected... I have two volunteers coming next week. I've got a couple in an RV coming in June, and some friends that will visit periodically. With all the extra hands around, I expect to be well prepared for the winter!

Thanks for the update! Thing seem to be shaping up quite nicely.

Update!!

3 months later, community building land development continues..

Food production:

Greenhouse: Going well. Got a dozen or so cucumbers thus far. ~Hundred tomatoes on vines, all green still. Raspberries and kale did well in the garden. I've got a couple jars of sprouts and 2 trays of microgreens going constantly, so pretty much non-stop greeeens.

Mushrooms: Got a few pounds of oysters, and waiting on shittakes. Made a huge mistake and used what seemed to be alder but were actually young cottonwoods. So, wrong tree. Yields are somewhere around 5-10% of what I was expecting

Current/completed projects:

Shed: It's pretty much finished. I got a super hard to get part for the electrical box transfer I've got the walls and floors almost ready to install, will be moving the electrical in and closing in the shed. It's pretty awesome and was a solo build project.

Yurt platform: mostly finished building this platform. Using older warped lumber, bricks, and compacted crush has made this labor intensive. I'm around ~day15 of ~6hrs/day or, and expect another 4-5 to go.

Water/plumbing:

Have been using a rainwater catch system I built, and creek water hauling for drinking water.

Have an intake built to the creek, and most of the run installed. Need to pick up another 100ft of pipe to reach the cabin.
I have nearly all the plumbing parts, mostly cut to size and dry fitted. Going to make proper slopes and adjustments before setting together.

Drainage: Got 2 big ditches dug out around the site, and a french drain style perimeter ditch around the yurt (wet site)

Got a nice 1.5ft trench around the cabin. Got the rocks needed to fill, and most of the pipe(need another 100ft then can set and infill. Got a good trench section running 35ft from the house to drain greywater.

Electrical: Got some breakers installed and working in the cabin. Fridge, heater, ect. Just 30amps functioning right now. Have to switch over elec panel to shed

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Spending of monies:

Yurt: I bought a yurt. $6k on marketplace for a 30ft mongolian yurt, with all furnishings and platform. It's a steal. The same model 22ft with platform with a few better bonuses is listed nearby at $37k. I've been fixing what needs fixing, building a platform, and ordering parts/upgrades. It's going to pan out closer to $10k and a month of working days-- still a steal of a deal.

Tractor: I bought a tractor. $9.6k, smaller 15hp Kubota. fair market value, good tractor for small stuffs.

Truck: Still looking for something in the 20k-30k range.

Microhydro: Had a hook up, went sour. Dont have water easement yet so unsure how to size system.

Stove: Got a steal on a small woodstove for $200 with pipe, chimney, and cleaning brush. Looking to get a bigger woodstove for the yurt.

Tools and general supplies: Got all sorts of tools, several thousand dollars worth pretty much all second hand.

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Community building:

Is happening. Differently than I hoped, but all well.
I've had a few volunteers and one couple who is moving here whom is a good contact person.
I've got to know many of the neighbors much better. I'm friends with several people within 5minutes of me. I've also got some contacts with various communities within 20minutes.
I'm dating someone who just got land an hour away and starting her community building.
Lots of connections with other communities, but no peoples seriously interested in living here. People are interested in the idea of living in the finished yurt, but even a temporary 15t bell tent seems to be.. not accommodating enough? I'm quite astounded by the lack of action from people interested in back to the land type communities. I've been overwhelmed by interest, and barely anyone has shown up, even with good offers.

It's looking like I'll probably have to forego my plans to have people stay and work the acreage, build shelters etc as a way to pay rent. It seems people just aren't really ready for that level of commitment. They rather travel 30min, earn the same wage doing something they don't really like, pay taxes, drive back 30min, and pay rent that way. Meh, whatevs.

Wondering best way to bet on food shortages in Q4 this year and(if needed) next year. prop betting websites? Or just buying puts/shorting equity markets?

I think the majority of peoples underestimate the likelihood of major food shortages in the near future.

Factors:

-It's one of those things that isn't in recent memory for pretty much anyone in the first world. no memory = people can't relate to it, and generally don't see it coming. example: stock market historically hasn't priced in rare very low probability high impact events. (black swan, long-term astrological cycles etc)

-Possibility of war with #1 and #5 grain producers (grain=mostly feed for meat, but also human foods). I think that if the western powers can make people hungry and have them believe russia is the reason for hunger and see them as the enemy... that is a huggggge win for the military industrial complex. Thus, I think this scenario is reasonably likely.. It's a textbook play (society problems=the enemies fault)

-Peak Potassium, peak soil and peak oil(among other peaks) on the horizon.

Natural disasters risk higher each year.

I'm struggling to understand how people seem to consider food shortages unlikely/improbably when it seems to be highly likely to me. Or at least, no one is acting like its highly likely. How many people do you know that have a years food supply, or that are capable of growing their own food? It's pretty much noone. How many people do you know with more than $50k in paper assets?
Something is wrong here..

If we continue as we do, which seems highly likely, its only a matter of time until food shortages, among other things. I guess the majority are too busy chasing low relative wages to burn energy while hoping for some major technological advances that will greatly increase producitivity/solve war, peak oil, and peak soil? lol-- yeah okay.. need to get in some of my monies betting against these peoples. Maybe I'm missing something here, please let me know if there are better counterarguments here.