Quote:
Originally Posted by DocSkillz
Sucks dude. Curious how the Stud8 mistake went down?
'sup Doc, thanks for popping in. This will be a little tricky to remember, especially given how sleep deprived I was when the hand went down, but the general details of the stud8 hand are as follows:
I am the bringin with (AdQc)3c. Among the other 8 players there are mostly high upcards showing with, I think, a couple low cards (I can't remember which two, though). It gets folded all the way to the chipleader to my direct right, who's the person at the table I've played with the least as the final two tables had just gotten consolidated at 9 players into one table and we had avoided each other all tournament. He raises with (xx)J.
The level was ante 1k, bringin 2.5k, bets 4k-8k, and I want to say I started the hand with around 65k. Against his raise (8k), I am getting immediate pot odds such that I only need 22% equity going forward for a call to be profitable. We had played a bunch of hands of stud8 and after another couple of hands were going to switch to o8.
My thinking at the time was that he was opening a wide range here on the assumption that I would be folding a large % of the time as the only other player remaining in the pot. Moreover, at 65k I was quite below average stack, with three stacks smaller than mine remaining (~42k, ~20k, ~40k) and only one elimination before the FT (official FT)/ITM bubble burst. Thus I am very vulnerable to ICM pressure and as such it seemed like a good spot for him to apply pressure.
I defended, aware that the immediate pot odds (again, need only 22% equity) were very appealing in a vacuum (ignoring ICM for a moment) and aware my equity against a hand like split jacks was around 40% (I should mention, I don't think there were any other jack upcards, increasing the likelihood he does in fact have split jacks). I thought he was capable of raising wide (i.e., more than split jacks), but, if he has split jacks, I still have about 40% equity.
Heading to fourth street, my plan was to fire and try to steal if the upcards came favorably based on my assumption that his range was weak and that by calling I was repping a strong range.
Fourth street gets dealt. I'm dealt (AdQc)3c
Kd, he's dealt (xx)Jx
Tx. I check, he bets. At this point, it was time to abandon ship and give up, as committing another bet puts me in a very precarious position going forward, as I'm really only happy with an A, K, or Q upcard on fifth, and even then I'm not going to be eager to commit more chips into the pot. I check, he bets, and I made a huge mistake and called on the assumption I may have still had the best hand.
We were each dealt junk on fifth street and I folded to his bet. Villain was kind and flashed me a jack in the hole (meaning he had split jacks) before mucking.
As soon as this hand was over, I felt like it was a trainwreck as played by me and by far the worst hand I played all tournament and quite possibly the entire three week trip (I just arrived back home). Almost certainly, I would have played the hand better had I not been severely sleep deprived and still dealing with the effects of a bad cold, but, again, I don't like to make excuses and the bottom line is I believe I'm capable of playing my best no matter what circumstances, sometimes it's just more difficult than other times to do so.
As to why I think the hand was so poorly played, on fourth street, even if I have a hunch that I might have the best hand, it doesn't matter as this is not a cash game and 8k (not to mention the high probability of future bets of 16k occurring) is way too big a % of my stack to commit on a hunch. So, I think a call on fourth street is absolutely terrible.
I think the call on third street was also quite bad. Though I think third street is defensible in a cash game under some circumstances given the power of the ace in the hole and the whole headsup dynamic of last remaining player versus the bringin, I think in this situation it is a mandatory fold. For one thing, if I'm not dealt an ace or queen on fourth street, I'm going to be quite uncomfortable, so I'm going to be uncomfortable 80%+ of the time. Even though my plan was to try to steal w/o improving, anyways, in retrospect that seems too optimistic and too uncertain given the ICM dynamics of having several stacks smaller than me who are about to feel the brunt of impending o8 big blinds (8k).
Basically, and, now I can say, predictably, my splashing around reduced me to the level of the other short stacks and cost me some critical ICM leverage. If I fold, I ensure I leave them alone on the hot seats. Instead, I got too fixated on sheer range-versus-range equity without considering that equity in the greater context of the ICM situation, which should have forced me to play only strong hands in such a spot.
Tbh, I did run bad on day two. I never made a good hand, I lost a lot of medium-sized pots, and the short stacks doubled up or chopped three times instead of busting when at risk where if they eliminated we would have been at the official FT and ITM.
Ultimately, I went out in an annoying spot in a hand I've found myself questioning given the ICM situation. One of the player's stacks had been reduced all the way down to 6k with a couple hands of o8 left and neither of us were going to have to post a blind before the stud8 round began. In stud8, the antes/bringin are basically going to force him to go allin the first or second hand. With a stack of 23.5k myself, I decided I was going to fold everything but very premium hands and wait until the stud8 round forced this player to commit his stack.
The second-to-last o8 hand gets dealt. Scott Baumstein raises (16k) in MP, the chipleader folds. I'm in the HJ and I have the two other shortest stacks to my left, so I know they'll be folding basically everything if I enter the pot. Moreover, I knew Baumstein was aware of the situation and was capable of raising wide as he had been ever since accumulating a stack. I peel my cards and I have AA39 and a suited ace, right on the margins of the very strong hands I had decided I would play. I decided to 3bet allin and try to build a stack back up rather than watch my stack dwindle to nothing as I waited for the very short stack to double up, chop, or bust in stud8. The short stacks fold, and, to my chagrin, both of the blinds call, each big stacks but each had been playing pretty tight. I had been fairly sure they were both going to fold in a double-raised pot, and as soon as I saw them both call I felt sick. At the same time, I was also now in a position to win/chop a 94k rather than 60k pot. Unfortunately, the board came out terribly and I knew I was basically drawing dead before the cards were turned over. I exited the table as the stone bubble.
There are other hands I'm questioning too, like defending against a CO raise in o8 with KK63 on the BTN (tight blinds, and at the time I had a decently big stack). Truthfully, I'm a much better stud8 than o8 (or, at least, fixed limit o8) player and there is still a ton of room for improvement for me in developing a stronger o8 game.
Anyways, all of this, especially the stud8 hand, goes to show that I'm still not above making obvious, big mistakes and that I still have plenty of room for improvement generally in mixed tournament play. While the sleep deprivation obviously made me more prone to mistakes, I refuse to let that operate as an excuse. The ironic thing is, I had been sleeping great on the road the whole East Coast trip, which had made two trips in a row I slept well while traveling despite a long history of severe sleep issues while traveling. This time, though, a bad cold and struggling breathing combined with tourney adrenaline made sleep damn near impossible.
Last edited by karamazonk; 09-12-2015 at 06:20 PM.