I agree with Bus and Aves that calling is the best play, and this is definitely a spot where my default is to call, but to balance my raising range against this player, I raised here. (Faulty logic, Busticator? Maybe I overthought it a bit...)
In a sense this WAS my balancing play, as I tend to play draws very strongly in these situations. I prob call here 80%, so this was a bit of a non-standard play for me. I am known, however, for applying quite a bit if pressure on players in these types situations, and I can't always be doing it when drawing/flipping.
I was honestly expecting a flat here or a smaller raise back. My plan was to raise or call any rr, but I wasn't expecting him to commit me. I honestly was expecting him to flat or CIB.
I don't think I can call, because aside from boating up, there isn't really a card in the deck I want to see. (And even J/T may be no good).
I honestly didn't even consider calling as an option here. Maybe I should have?
I think the bottom of his range here is a hand like QK/AQcc. So basically I'm likely flipping at very best. (Which I suppose gives some credence to call flop te shoving blanks, tho I doubt I'd be given the option to shove the turn). I think he's calling everything on the turn, so the difference between shoving here and on turn gives some false equity. (If the money is going to go in regardless, may as well be the one shoving and hope I have maybe some slight fold equity...I think the 25% equity I theoretically could gain by waiting for a blank to hit before acting is in part an illusion. If I'm gonna fold all scare cards then i don't give myself the 10% chance for a resuck, plus he's likely not checking anything on the turn...)
Does that make sense? It does in my head, but not sure if in properly expressing it ITT.
I also hate getting myself into spots where even if I got the best possible card, I could still be drawing dead (or close to it).
As evidenced by this blog, I can be a bit too open at times, and I have in the past told this player to stop showing me his hands, as I was using this information against him. (After all, my goal is to beat 10/25, not 2/5, so sometimes I give up equity to make things a bit tougher on myself.)
Of course this time he listened to my advice, and refused to show me what he had.
Regardless of his holdings, I think he made a great play here, as there is no hand here so can truly be comfortable with (even AK can be up against a freeroll (unlikely) or 30-40% equity hand) (highly likely).
My results: