So we should 3b 56ss bvb?

I kinda disagree, against these type of players I feel VERY comfortable calling my 5/6 when I hit a pair, because most of their range does not include over-pairs, and against their "overcard equity" I'm 80-20.

Question is, as played, what do you prefer, shoving turn, or flatting turn+river?

80-20 vs 90-10 is a huge difference. And you can't look at it like you're always 80/20 obviously, because he could very well have an overpair/2pair/straight/flush draws. Even on a board like the one you played vs villain(which is like the best board you could possibly hope for), vs his range your equity is nowhere near 80-20 on the flop. Probably closer to 65-35. And this is the best board you could ask for. Most other boards are gonna have 1 or 2 overcards just on the flop. I don't know how you are comfortable calling 3 streets on those.

You're right that if you call 56s, then you pretty much have to call 3 streets vs this villain on this board, but if he's barreling an unbalanced amount in general, then the best way to counter is by entering those situations with a stronger range and print money when he barrels.

What type of stronger range is that ? Somehing like this ?

TT-88,AJs-A2s,K4s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Not so low with the suited kings, but that looks fine for someone who 3bets vs button 15-20%.

Generally speaking I call flop when prob 60-40 to my advantage with the intention to fold specific turns. So I try to think about this hand only from the turn, and on the turn I Believe I'm somewehre around 75-25 / 80-20 vs this villain on turns I'm planning to shove / call-call.

For example, in this hand:

SB shows 7 A (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 60%, Flop 21%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows 5 6 (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 40%, Flop 79%, Turn 86%)

I do understand what you say about going with better range, but if played as is, would you rather shove turn or call-call..?

It would just depend on his river barrel %. I haven't run the numbers but I'm guessing greater than 60-70% and I just call/call. Less than that and you could start making arguments for a turn shove.

can anybody explain villains reason to ship? seems incredibly thin for value and pretty stupid as a bluff

Very easy explanation, villain is just a barrelling-bot. No thinking involved, bet-bet-shove almost 80% of range , where stuff he doesn't play like that is usually on the value side...(for example QQ on A board).

So VS this type of players, you also think call-call >> shove turn.

It was my initial thought, but figured getting some feedback would be helpful.

River shove makes sense to me, get called by any pair or maybe A high.

After a weak and a half into the new mini-challenge (AKA "Don't touch my current BankRoll"), results are somewhat weird.

Instead of the 8k hands that I thought it would take me to make 500$ (at an expected winrate of 6bb/100), I played already 15k hands, and am B/E

Expected EV-wise, I should be on 1200$, and 8bb/100 , so feel pretty comfortable with my game, got some new "tricks", and am anxious to try them out at stakes where people actually can play poker (100nl regs are kind of a sad joke).

Graph so far:



Couple of interesting hands...


Hand 1: Vs Aggroo fish


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $136.81
MP: $36.00
CO: $98.07
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $87.56
BB: $101.50

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has J T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.20, SB raises to $3.40, fold, Hero calls $1.20

Flop: ($7.80, 2 players) 5 T K
SB checks, Hero bets $4.02, SB raises to $8.04, Hero calls $4.02

Turn: ($23.88, 2 players) 4
SB bets $22.00, Hero calls $22.00

River: ($67.88, 2 players) 2
SB bets $54.12 and is all-in, Hero calls $54.12



Lately went really deep into cbet-flop thinking, and as far as I'm concerned hand was over the second I decided to cbet this flop, vs this villain.


Hand 2: Vs 100nl "reg"

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $118.79
MP: $121.87
CO: $125.58
BTN: $43.50
SB: $174.14
Hero (BB): $100.00

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has Q K

fold, fold, CO raises to $2.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $8.80, CO calls $6.30

Flop: ($18.10, 2 players) 9 T 3
Hero bets $11.29, CO calls $11.29

Turn: ($40.68, 2 players) Q
Hero bets $23.47, CO calls $23.47

River: ($87.62, 2 players) J
Hero checks, CO bets $82.02 and is all-in, Hero calls $56.44 and is all-in



Interesting part is happening at the Turn, where I need to decide whether I go for a Check-Shove, or bet-bet.

River is kinda tricky, figured he has some missed draws that would feel obligated to shove, not sure about check though, would love to hear some opinions.


Hand 3: Vs agrro fish


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $100.00
Hero (BTN): $137.85
SB: $125.42
BB: $73.36
UTG: $44.70
MP: $100.00

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has 8 9

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.20, fold, BB calls $1.20

Flop: ($4.90, 2 players) 5 6 6
BB bets $3.00, Hero raises to $9.72, BB calls $6.72

Turn: ($24.34, 2 players) 9
BB checks, Hero bets $14.64, BB raises to $61.44 and is all-in, Hero calls $46.80

River: ($147.22, 2 players) K



Flop-raise is for value, turn I fell nutted vs his calling/check-shoving range so bet smaller to induce shoves.


Hand 4+5 are vs another 100nl "reg", and happened minutes after another.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $32.11
MP: $76.62
CO: $100.00
BTN: $96.72
SB: $100.00
Hero (BB): $100.00

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has 8 8

fold, fold, CO raises to $2.50, fold, SB raises to $9.00, Hero calls $8.00, fold

Flop: ($20.50, 2 players) 8 2 7
SB bets $12.00, Hero calls $12.00

Turn: ($44.50, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($44.50, 2 players) 3
SB bets $13.00, Hero raises to $79.00 and is all-in, SB calls $66.00 and is all-in



Main point here being I think betting turn would be wrong vs his cbet-flop-check-turn range.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $107.05
BTN: $127.29
SB: $113.94
Hero (BB): $103.27
UTG: $101.70
MP: $182.12

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has 7 7

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $3.00, Hero calls $2.00

Flop: ($6.00, 2 players) 8 5 Q
SB bets $4.00, Hero raises to $12.24, SB calls $8.24

Turn: ($30.48, 2 players) 5
SB checks, Hero bets $16.83, SB calls $16.83

River: ($64.14, 2 players) K
SB checks, Hero bets $71.20 and is all-in, SB calls $71.20



Flop is for value, turn came the perfect card to pretend as a full-house, river is perfect for folding his entire check-call-turn-range (figured he's prob folding most of his FD on my turn-full-house-bet).

He actually snap called it, so whatever...

Note to self, don't play during the "Horrible Days" of Yom Kipur...

Crazy sess at the deep tables at 100NL was kinda swingy, but after 2.5 hours managed to dig my way back form -8 BI to B/E , only to have this hand as the last of the session..

Villain is a "reg" of 100nl, had tons of dinamics before, I was 3/4/5 betting non-stop, and villain so me in this hand, among others:


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $232.42
MP: $80.31
CO: $408.05
BTN: $401.61
SB: $290.30
Hero (BB): $243.61

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00, UTG posts ante $0.20, MP posts ante $0.20, CO posts ante $0.20, BTN posts ante $0.20, SB posts ante $0.20, Hero posts ante $0.20

Pre Flop: ($2.70) Hero has Q K

fold, fold, CO raises to $3.00, BTN calls $3.00, SB raises to $14.00, Hero raises to $32.00, fold, fold, SB calls $18.00

Flop: ($71.20, 2 players) 4 9 3
SB checks, Hero bets $34.93, SB calls $34.93

Turn: ($141.06, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero bets $41.66, SB calls $41.66

River: ($224.38, 2 players) 7
SB checks, Hero bets $134.82 and is all-in, SB calls $134.82

Hero shows Q K (High Card, Ace) (Pre 40%, Flop 25%, Turn 0%)
SB shows T A (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 60%, Flop 75%, Turn 100%)
SB wins $491.22

------------------------------------------

The hand itself: 600bb deep, river decision.


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $85.91
BTN: $659.30
SB: $250.70
Hero (BB): $627.11
UTG: $355.48

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00, CO posts ante $0.20, BTN posts ante $0.20, SB posts ante $0.20, Hero posts ante $0.20, UTG posts ante $0.20

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero has A A

UTG raises to $3.00, fold, BTN raises to $9.00, fold, Hero raises to $26.00, fold, BTN calls $17.00

Flop: ($56.50, 2 players) 9 A 8
Hero bets $33.99, BTN calls $33.99

Turn: ($124.48, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $112.60, BTN calls $112.60

River: ($349.68, 2 players) 5
Hero bets $454.32 and is all-in, BTN calls $454.32




What do we do on river and why..?

what happens when u check the river with AA there?

99% of the time he shoves

so why do you shove?

What hands that we beat would he shove? He has like 0 bluffs in his range and he won't shove two pairs or maybe even some low sets that we still can get value from. Spot sucks non the less but c/f'ing feels so gross

So if we check, I think we should check with the intention of folding to a bet. Might be the best option but would probably never do it ingame

Edit: Discount what I said about sets, he probably never takes this line with 88/99

W

Ch decide river. People tend to play honestly 600bb deep. Cannot see you getting looked up by worse. He either made his flush or folds his weak hand to the river jam. No value lost in checking. Sets and two pairs probably raise the flop or turn this deep.

When I check river I think he NEVER shoves worse. His value hands are DEF going to check behind (any ace good kicker, any two pair, prob even his sets). His bluffing hands prob put me on AK/AQ and understand I'm going for a check-call, so nothing shoves except made Flush, IMO ofc.

On the other hand, my hand seems super suspicious (when I over-shove), cause he thinks I never shove AK/AQ etc. so it's either a monster or a super bluff, figured I get calls from most of his value hands.

+1

not so sure about this though... feel like a set would wait for river to raise, can't see him getting any value from his set even vs my AK/AQ with a flop/turn raise...

In that case he would probably just call down and not raise at any point? Raising a blank river will get called by a stronger range than a flop call imo

Isn't he getting value from more combos (Peeling AK/AQ/FD's/2pairs) by raising his sets on the flop, after all it's a 4bet pot.

If he raises flop he might get a call from my AK/AQ (prob the only hands) , for few bb's, and I would prob fold them to further aggression.

Seems to me that better streets to raise for value would be turn/river.

If I were him, I would notice my sizing on turn, decide it's very polarized towards nuts/semi-air, and would prob turn my hand into a bluff-catcher..

You are way better than me at poker but I will add my two cents since I follow your thread and really like your hand analysis.
I don't think he will slowplay a set here too often. Although you are probably correct that it isn't the best play, most people at $100NL just raise on a drawy board and hope you have a hand and try to get a ton of value from loose calls like AK, KK, etc.
My initial thought is I would just check/call the river for presumably a half-pot bet. If he shoves you could consider folding. I don't see too much more value from shoving. Seems like he will fold worse and call with a flush. Or what about bet smaller and consider folding to a shove?

I see this way of thinking often in these forums, so figured I'd say what I think about it once and get it over with

IMO the big difference between 1000NL regs and 200NL and beyond (as long as they have basic poker-theory fundamentals) regs is that 1000NL regs actually make their moves based on what they think, while 200nl regs (and easy to tilt 1000nl regs) know what's the "right" move, but somehow convince themselves to do something else.

Main point being anyone can think and analyse hands and write their opinions (as long as they say *why* they think the way they think), nothing to do with poker skill or what stakes do u play etc. in hand analysing process.

After thinking tons about this hand, I think best moves are as followed:

In Vacuum: Bet 63% pot (fold) >> Check (fold to anything more than 60% pot) >> Check-Call (up to 70% pot) >> Shove >> Bet-Call.

With present dynamics: Bet 63% pot (fold) >> Shove >> Check-Call (any sizing) >> Check (fold to anything more than 60% pot) >> >> Bet-Call.

Subbed, GL!

I think it is a waste of time to think how villain would play his sets/two pairs/one pair hands. Not because you should not talk strategy but because they are a very small part of his range due to couple of things. Combos. You have two aces in your hand. One on the flop. It makes it really hard for villain to have a made hand.

99/88 = 6 combos.
A9s/A8s = 2 combos
AQ/AJ = 8 combos

16 combos maximum on the river for made hands. If he raises the better half of them then 8 combos. If he folds AJ OTT then 4. When we shove he may fold the rest of combos. If we shove it could be that he calls with 0 worse combos if he raises sets somewhere.

Draws on the other hand are everywhere. SDs: QJs/QTs/JTs/76s/75s/65s. FDs: KQ/KJ/QJ/QT/JT/76. Plus T8cc/87cc/86cc.


27 certain combos of draws he gets to river with. VS 0 combos of certain worse made hands he calls the shove with. And if he plays K3s aswell the ratio could be something like 50 to 0. Never ever shove this river with AA. Check and decide.