Meh showing in the FTOPS event #1 tonight. Made it a couple hours, maybe halfway through the field, ended up busting on a coinflip.
This hand of the tourney was one of the toughest decisions I've faced in a long time. I think most people would (snap) call here. I folded. I have no idea if I was right or not.
My read on the villain was that he was solid and played his hands cautiously.
Full Tilt - 60/120 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
Hero (UTG+1): 6,635.00
MP: 6,460.00
MP+1: 5,480.00
LP: 11,350.00
CO: 2,165.00
BTN: 3,010.00
SB: 4,385.00
BB: 6,820.00
UTG: 3,695.00
SB posts SB 60.00, BB posts BB 120.00
Pre Flop: (180.00) Hero has T
9
fold,
Hero raises to 340.00,
fold,
MP+1 raises to 560.00,
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold, BB calls 440.00,
Hero calls 220.00
Flop: (1740.00, 3 players) 3
9
T
BB checks,
Hero bets 640.00,
fold, BB calls 640.00
Turn: (3020.00, 2 players) 5
BB checks,
Hero bets 1,360.00, BB calls 1,360.00
River: (5740.00, 2 players) Q
BB bets 4,260.00 and is all-in,
fold
BB wins 5,740.00
My thinking was this:
Preflop, I put him on AK or AQs, J-J or Q-Q when he called a raise and a (small) 3 bet. As we went through the flop and turn, I felt that he had an overpair that he was playing cautiously bc he was afraid I might have a better hand. I mean, I specifically felt he had QQ, and when the Q came on the river and he shoved, I just felt he had it. He wouldn't play JJ this way (c/c'ing until an overcard came, then shoving). It would be a way wacky bluff with AK, but that's just not what I felt. I wasn't sure what hand he had, but I just felt that I was beat, so I dumped it.
I know that my preflop raise from EP was optional at best (it's not a play I often make, but this time I did). And I could have bet more on the turn, but I felt that with the range I thought he had, his chances of sucking out were so slim that my only real objective was to make small, callable bets that would get him pot-stuck on the river, to make that river shove less than pot-sized.
Ok, so here's the thing. One of my poker epiphanies came when I got tired of paying people off even though I knew I was beat. I mean, I'd JUST KNOW that they had me somehow, even if it were in some impossible way. I'd call just to prove to myself that I was right. And I was almost always right, and I spent a lot of chips proving it to myself.
And then one day I decided ... I'm just going to listen to myself. Every time I get that feeling, I'm just going to listen to it. And my results shot through the roof.
The thing is, I think that "feeling" is more than a feeling. Humans consciously use something like 8% of our brains or whatever. Well I believe that somewhere in that other 92%, we already KNOW the answer. The human brain is infinitely complex, and it already has deciphered all the little clues, all the betting patterns, the timing, the history, the energy. Our brain has got the whole thing figured out. So you've got the answer in there somewhere. You just have to tap into it, and then have the faith and discipline to act on it, even when you don't want to. Even when you just HAVE to see it. To say no, I'm just going to listen to myself. And that's how I felt in this hand. Unfortunately, I'll never know if it was right this time or not.
As always, thoughts are appreciated.
Aside from the FTOPS event, I was +$428 at STT's so that softened the blow. Still running even for the month so far, but that's ok ... So much of winning at poker is just staying even through the tough times and then going on a heater. Hopefully that comes soon
Next FTOPS: On Sunday, both Event #11, the $120+9 NL KO and #13, the $300+22 NL.