Quote:
Originally Posted by DREAM333R
OK, i dont think he would call with AQ KQ, so drop that Q, but still why not? So say if yes, he would raise the flop because me(fish) holding big pair would call, if he hold 77 he might just called, so let's see, turn 7, no way he got it, also no way he had QQ, so i put him on underpair, something like JJ, it is still a good hand because it's not likely i 3bet with Q, so he might also put me on KK or JJ or AK, i think thats why he bet the river big, and wow 3bet for the flush, when i saw flush i was sure it's my pot the way he played the flop and turn, but he still made a good bet like he got a house, so i put him exactly on JJ i couldnt even think he could have KK or AA because i 3bet him he should defo 4bet..
It is very dangerous to assume that opponents play optimally thus making it dangerous to exclude hands that "you" think should be folding to 3 bets.
I ran a query on all my 6 max hands in HEM over the last 2 years. This allows me to see what villains are calling 3 Bets with over a decent sample. I only counted holdings where I had AA, AKs or AKo for card removal purposes. I also removed blind vs blind hands.
Most of these hands are 5-10NL, but there may be a few 25NL mixed in as that is what I was playing when Black Friday hit.
Hero = BB or SB
Hero hole cards = AA, AKo, AKs
Hero 3 Bet = true
Saw Flop = true
Saw Showdown = true
Here is what villains
flatted with in position and number of times:
AA(1), AKs(3), AKo(12), AQs(3), AQo(5), AJo(1), ATo(1), A8s(1), A7s(1), A4s(1), A2o(1)
KK(2), KQs(3), KQo(5), KJo(2), KTs(1), KTo(1), K4s(1)
QQ(3), QJs(3), QJo(2), QTs(2), QTo(1), Q9s(1), Q8s(1), Q7s(3) <-wtf, Q5s(1)
JJ(7), JTo(1), J8s(2)
TT(5), T9s(1)
77(2), 79s(1), 76s(1), 66(1), 44(1), 36s(1)
Here is what I was 4 bet with and the number of times
AA(4), AKs(3), AKo(4), A6o(1), KK(2), QQ(4), JJ(1), J9o(1), TT(1), 55(1), 44(1), 33(1)
85 times I was flatted with villains holding 38 different combinations of hole cards.
30 times villain held at least one Ace.
30 times villain held at least one King.
33 times villain held at least one Queen. The most frequent card of all.
Compare that to 7 times they held exactly JJ.
This just shows you that you cannot completely disregard any holdings.
I just love filtering HEM and doing this kind of stuff. You learn so much.