ZZZZ

this hurt a bit. Villain is a semi reg so his call on turn is a misclick i assume - he probably thought he would be all in.
Besides that fairly standard hand although i had less EV on turn than i expected. (58%)

^ NH bro with u call otf and raise ott. Thats way i dont trust a lot of that ev line in general at this limits.

I assume you are not being sarcastic about the call
And yes, if we include similar hands -like where we c/r big on flop and villain calls off his last few bbs on turn when the board changes- this happens a lot and is screwing the ev line big time. Thats why i dont even show it in my graphs just after a decent sample...

STILL FLUSHING

Still cant get over flush draws So recently I am trying not to overplay nut flush draws on flop but i played 2 hands yesterday where I thought shoving and raising on flop was ok. I better post them though.

Hand 1

Here SB is very loose but fairly passive post. I put him on straights, 2pair, sets, and maybe KK+high flush draw. I am doing pretty bad vs this range so if bb folds (or raises) i fold. However when BB flats i felt that i am better off shoving here. I have some thoughts why but i rather wait to see if you guys agree with me or not.




Hand 2

Villain here looks tightish but over a very small sample. I think this would be a very standard raise/gii off with just 100bb but raising should be good this deep too, right?
Any point in getting cute and raise smaller than pot (1/2 or 60%pot)?

hand 1: no me gusta. i'd rather draw for cheap with almost no backdoors. also, bb might have a FD also which he may fold. and why would you want to flip versus a straight or set ? (which sb almost always has)

hand 2: nh, it's a good board to semibluff in a 3b pot with position.

Hand 1
Flat IMO. Shorty SB is ~never pot-folding here and you have great odds to call and you can gain value from lower flushes, especially if SB has cc. You're behind against GII ranges.

Hand 2
Shouldn't hit BB's 3bet range that often, if you think he's halfpot-folding this too often you could go like 50-70% with this, two pair hands, straights, some draws and spade blockers. Can't see him shipping almost 300bb with naked overpair

I agree that flatting is best in Hand 1. I don't see many bet/folds on this board, so FE is minimal.

In Hand 2, I don't mind a smaller raise, especially as you have a blocker to As. It's hard to see him calling your large raise with anything but a mid-rundown, so "cuter" is definitely better, here.

+1 to all of above posts

Hmmm I feel like I am a bonehead, everybody seems to agree on hand 1 so i better go with that too.

In game i thought i have at least breakeven EV in most cases and ahead in some but looking at it now it looks like breaking even (with high variance)is best case scenario and i am mostly behind.

A - hands of me,sb,bb - nfd, straight, set

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 253

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ac9h8cJs	25.56%	153,276	135
64	36.20%	211,983	10,468
55	38.24%	224,216	10,448

B - nfd, straight, pair with clubs

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 253

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ac9h8cJs	29.73%	178,310	136
KK:cc	6.01%	31,644	8,880
64	64.26%	381,096	8,884

C - nfd, straight, straight, what they actually had

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 253

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Ac9h8cJs	35.28%	211,637	121
64	54.22%	294,109	62,438
A4	10.50%	31,756	62,438

So ok calling flop is the way to go. There is 12,8$ in the pot on turn, SB has 8,14$, BB has 16$ i cover.

1. the turn is a brick, SB shoves, bb calls I need 28% to call and i have about 20% so i fold. I always thought that this is kind of weak play but maybe it is because it would be a really weak play if i would do this HU vs SB but it is ok 3 ways?

2. the turn is a flush card. SB checks and BB is likely to check as i over called. I bet, SB fold with BB acting behind him, BB likely folds, might call with a set if i dont bet too much. If BB had clubs i might get a bet from him but not more.

So generally my problem is that if i flat flop I will not get much out of the hand with my nfd. I assume this is this balanced out by the times where i flat with the nut straight or with a set and hit turn.
Ok slowly i am getting there

LOL

I got 16,7% rakeback at ipoker this week, heh? I know there is a new system but this still seems way to little...

How much is the rake in bb/100?

About 13,3bb/100 if i am not mistaken. I emailed my affiliate to see whats up.

Lol ok, i screwd up, i included my PS hands too.




So it was about 31% (officially it should be 35%) but there are better offers at ipoker still so i will move on from March!

I'm pretty sure you would pay less rake after rb with platinumstar@stars if you only get 35%

Yes i already withdrew my money from that site, but i will give another one a go still. I want to see how the games will be. But of course nobody knows how long before things change for the worst again.

To be honest currently i lack the confidence*** to beat stars at ~plo50, platinum star level so until then i need these back up rooms. And i also dislike the VIP system there, where you drop out of the goodness if you do not play regularly. This month i didnt even made it to Goldstar and April will be similar too...

***to put it nicely

WEEK 21

Finally a week when i was happy with my play!
It was a short week so not much volume but made a few buyins and also ran well under EV so that was all good.
Looking forward to the next week. My morale/stamina is good at the moment and hopefully that will last for a while and its not just a quick burst from the days off. Ideally i should push all the way until April but for a start i would be very happy with back-to-back good weeks - that is unprecedented so far in this challenge.

24 hours, 7,8k hands (bit more PS than ipoker), 3,5 buyins

NFD, 3B POT

Ok probably my last post with nut flush draws for a while.
In 3bet pots where we have a SPR of 2-3 it seems more standard to just go with it on flop if we have a NFD and a pair.

Hand 1

The plan here was call flop and call turn to keep his weaker hands in. Unfortunately the flop paired and killed all my 2pair outs but i wasn't disciplined enough to fold. Vs his hand i had 25% and the pot odds were 29%. Although if we add high rundowns with clubs to his range i am probably good.

Villain is a winning reg, plays 22/15 and 3bets 6% from the SB.




Hand 2

In this hand i did shove the flop and i really dont know if call-flop-call-T would be any better, but as the SPR is only 2 here i think we can chuck it in with even worse here. Villain here is more laggish reg 27/22/11 not as good as the reg in the other hand.

Ship flop on both those hands above. Hand 1 is a clear ship flop because you got fold equity and you don't wqnt to call/call and it hits your range much harder than his. Actually when the turn pairs you should fold now... Actually he played his turn pretty bad since he should only be getting called by hands that have him beat at this point (except for some reason you called).

Hand 2 ship flop because the spr is so small there's nothing else to really do, would be more debatable of spr was larger.

overall: your reasoning in hands with the nut flush draw is very inconsistent and kind of all over the place. Which can actually be kind of hard to play against since you're basically just clicking buttons and I wouldn't really know what to think about you in these hands if I was villain

1 hands for me is fold pf to the 3 bet. If 4s is a higher card like 8 and up maybe its a call. OTF its clear gii with pear and NFD.

2 hand its better to the 1 hand so i can call 3 bet and ofc at this flop c/r.

Yes sometimes it feels like i am a slow learner or maybe not learning anything at all...

I felt that it was marginal but we have 42% vs his 6% 3bet range and we have position.

Hand 2 - i agree because the king hits his range good but as the SPR is only 2 so we should shove. If we were deeper the call would be better i think.

hand 1 i m folding like always pf vs 3b. it s soooo uncoordinated.

hand 2 looks fine

Down 20 buyins in 3 day. I thought i played good so i am not even mad, but i am bit annoyed That's what it is, i will go on until some real life work finds me or i bust my roll, whichever happens first.

i totally feel you )) had the same happen to me on ipoker ) so moved for a period back to stars because ... zoom :P

^ yeah zoom saved my sanity this week, i am not sure what to do with ipoker

WEEK 22

The first 3 days were pretty tough, tilted hard but i am not sure why actually. Thursday-Friday steady grind but only won Sklansky bucks. Saturday, Sunday doing a bit better. Altogether I only ran 10 buyins under EV but it sure felt a lot more.

31,5 hours, 10,7k hands, -14 buyins

HEY

I have been away a bit from 2+2 the last few days but my daily routine has not changed much.

I have a hand here where my standard play is call flop and fold turn unimproved but as it turns out this is a marginal spot where we need implied odds to make it profitable. At 100 bb though stacks villain goes with his hands usually anyway. That said calling is still more EV than cbet/folding so we are "forced" into this high variance play.

Anybody plays this differently? Villain is 17/12/2.2 over 120 hands at plo25 zoom.