obv i'm looking forward to see some other hands!it's very interesting and useful

Definitely gonna be subscribing this! Awesome thread

I'll be posting 5-6 HH's with thought processes etc tomorrow/this weekend.

Winnings so far are on £58,000. From the £81k drop to ~£51k, I got it back to £58k then back down to £51k, and now back up to £58k. Just had a nice winning session despite runnings KK into AA 5 F**KING TIMES!!!!! Obv didn't see a King come down on any of the 5 boards.

So, 33 days into the challenge:

£58,196 profit.

Need to be a profit of £45,205 at the moment to be on track.

As mentioned earlier in the thread I lost ~£20k on a site and also lost the hands (due to me having to get a new laptop - I managed to get the rest though), so need to get to £520k on the graph to complete the challenge.

Bearing that in mind I need to be at £47,013 - which I am over by a fair bit.

I think losing the £25k in 3-4 mins has affected my playing style. I have been a little more nitty preflop for one. My non-showdown line, instead of going always up like it did before the £25k loss, has now started to be horizontal/sloping downwards a little.

Hopefully will get that back to how it was over the next week or so.

That really is a bad efet of going on a downswing. Subscribed.

Definitely, you become a lot more cautious... Hopefully the red line will be back to its frightening trajectory in no time though, awesome thread

Unsubscribed.









...

I'm sorry, but don't you play 25/50 regularly? If a 5 buy-in affects you so much, how do you think you're going to survive a real downswing?

And a day where i woke up thinking to myself "Yeah, i'm going to win a lot today" turned out I couldn't run worse.

Haha, I lol'd.

Never played Nl5k regularly. I'll only sit there (apart from the cliff in the graph) if there is a fish. Nl2k is my main game and tbh if i lost 50 buyins there over a month it wouldn't really bother me. It was just the 5x5k in a time of 5minutes!

This guy is a total ret4ard preflop. I've seen him spew off with so much sh*t it's unreal. And yeah, donks off with just jacks here because they are always good in this spot...

I even thought about folding aswell. Maybe I would have vs another player, def not him though.

in fairness presuming you 3bet light a lot and BB folded it wasn't such a bad read in this case?

edit: just saw you were 200 deep lol that is horrendous alright

Thought process:
On the flop I decided I was going to take this pot down (providing he didn't have AA).

So:

Preflop:
78hh dealt to me in the BB. I could easily 3bet here but couldn't be bothered to play a flop out of position/get 4bet to a guy playing 27/21 in early position (My first session using the HUD ). And with a 4bet % of 18% I think there was a strong possibility he could have 4bet me (although 3betting of the BB is a lot stronger than say to do it in the dealer position).

Anyway, given that I am a nit these days, flat call was the chosen way to play this hand. Obv i'm not folding!

Flop:
Ac 6s 4s. In my opinion that flop I could have easily hit strongly. There are alot of hand combinations that I can hold to connect with it (66/44/A6 suited/A4suited/75s/any other flushdraw). And imo, he either has the ace or doesn't and has missed the vast majority of the time. So, with him betting when I checked to him (which I'd expect the villain to do 80%+ of the time in this spot, and considering his cbet % is actually 88%) then a check raise will be successful here a lot of the time. If he does call we can obv hit the nuts and carry on, but I think any spade and he will be scared as most regs these days get spades in on that flop (especially with Axss).

Turn:
4h. I suppose that's not a great card to continue betting with, as for one it makes me holding 44 a lot less likely, but showing aggression vs someone who could have possibly floated my flop check raise I think is the best option (as opposed to just check/folding). So i lead $385 into $700... and get called

River:
Js. Ok unless he thinks I will shut down on the river, the option of him double floating me is pretty slim! I think he holds a hand like A10off, I doubt he'd have folded the river with AK/AQ/AJ.

If the spade didn't come, then i'd most likely be giving up on this pot. Once he called my turn bet, I was shoving on any 5 (giving me a spade) and any spade (representing the flush). If I was in his position holding A10, i'd probably fold it at this stage, given the way the hand has been played and the spade coming on the river.

I haven't got a clue how to work out stuff like the % of time this river shove needs to work to be profitable in the long run so if someone wants to tell me for this hand that would be greatly appreciated...

I had been playing tight on that table, and obviously if i had a very LAG image then i'd be less inclined to pull of this move.

When I read the first line of your comment I was thinking "did he see it was 200bb+ deep?"...

Yeah, 100bb is ok I guess, flip at best if called. But yeah 200bb+ deep is just so bad. 100bb shoves for him are considerd the norm with 44/55 on a regular basis. We had a SB vs BB earlier, me AQ him KJss. 5/10 him to 30 me to 90 him to 200 me all in... Timebank calls, misses thankfully but yeah I'm def going to be playing on his tables...

Tip on how to get people to donk off with 88. Make your hand look like AK by the way you 5bet a random number, quickly. To them it just looks like i couldn't be bothered what I 5bet, as "I had AK and it was all going in preflop anyway".

Obv i lose, but that's standard!

A hand to dicuss later, going for dinner now.

Why shove if u think he can't fold AJ-AK? That's biggest part of his range.

Example of floating... Will explain thoughts after dinner!

Sorry I meant to say

"River:
Js. Ok unless he thinks I will shut down on the river, the option of him double floating me is pretty slim! I think he holds a hand like A10off, I doubt he'd have folded the river with AK/AQ/AJ... if the river wasn't a spade.

Just the £18k down today on ongame. EV is at -£3k. Standard for me so no complaints!

Do you think it helps your game to check your results and EV so often? Obv you're a beast so not questioning your methods, just wondering whether you think it might be +EV to only check your results say once a week? I've been doing that for the last few weeks, really helps me forget about results and focus on playing my best.

Hey, thanks for the comment above. It's quite weird you say that, whilst having my dinner I literally thought of what you said also, for the first time. I think you are definitely right... Maybe I should just post hands on a regular basis and then say on the 1st/8th/15th/22nd and then repeat on the 1st day of the next month I post my winnings graph.

I'll start that pattern, so next post on the 15th re winnings.

And maybe it's for the best for me to NEVER look at my EV graph (excluding boss media).

Great thread coopah, not just because of your results but also the background and the way you answer questions. I really hope you do the one week from NL10 that you spoke about.

You win money with your river shove when villain folds and when villain calls with the worst hand.

So your ev is:

the amount you win after a fold multiplied by the percentage of time the fold happens

plus

the hand equity you have against villain's calling range multiplied by the percentage of time you get a call

ev = (ev of fold x fold%) + (ev of call x call%)

ev of call = (hand equity x total pot after the call) - our bet

In this case we can assume you have no hand equity when called and you lose every time.

The pot is $1470 and you bet $1704

The breakeven point will be when ev = 0

0 = 1470 x fold% - 1704 x (1-fold%)

0 = 1470f - 1704 + 1704f

1704 = 3174f

f = 54% (rounded up)

As long as villain folds more than 54% of the time your shove is profitable.

(The usual caveat goes along with anything mathsy ie. I might have cocked up but someone with a bigger brain will correct me if I have)

Thanks for the above! Playing a session at the moment but briefly: I went all in for 1704 but he didnt have that much left. I think he had like 1300 or so, will that alter the above calculations and if so by how much?

OK so your river bet was effectively $1287.

0 = 1470f - 1287 + 1287f

f = 47% (rounded up)

coopah, thanks so much for sharing hands and thought processes with us, keep em' coming.