So up until now, I've had a Poker Goals & Challenges thread which I haven't updated very much in general. At the start of the challenge I also wasn't really sure what I was planning to play throughout the year, only that I wanted to make SNE this year. The thread can be found here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...aying-1172744/
Until now, I've been incredibly lazy with my playing, and as a result I have 400K VPP left to earn. I was really close to giving up on the chase, but after doing some math I realized that the difference between quitting now, and making SNE is actually over 100% rakeback if I include the extra FPPs earnt due to the SNE 5x (instead of 3.5x) multiplier next year.
The value of making SNE from 600K VPP is
400K x 3.5 Multiplier x 1.6C/FPP = $22400
WCOOP Ticket $5200
700K Milestone $3800
800K Milestone $4200
1M Milestone $20000
SNE Multiplier equity 1M VPP x 1.5Extra multiplier x 1.6cents/FPP = $24000
The rake that needs to be paid for 400K VPP is 400K/5.5 = $72728
So it's basically a no brainer. This essentially means even if I lose 55600 pre-rakeback for the rest of the year, it's worth making it, and even if I lost 79600 it would be break-even, ignoring the time I spend.
I plan to play a mixture of my regular games (8-tabling 200 and 500Zoom), CAP (up to 5/10 probably) and SNGs (mostly Hypers up to 200 and maybe some fifty50s etc). Even though the games are at their worst this time of year (lots of people trying to finish off SNE, or X00K Milestones), I am really confident that worst case scenario I'd break even after the rakeback, and most likely lose "a little" at worst, especially with Zoom mixed in where I'm a clear winner pre-rakeback. Obviously my expertise and experience in CAP and Hypers aren't particularly great nor up to date, but I have played both in the past and have a fairly good idea, and with the massive effective rakeback I think this should be very +EV overall.
Ideally I'd just 8-table Zoom to finish off SNE, but I'd have to play an absurd number of hours (like 70 a week or something) which I just simply don't want to. It would be a lot more possible if 200-500Zoom ran 24/7 with a decent lobby, as then I would play some in the morning, take a break then play in the evening but at 4PM-Midnight NZT it sometimes dies or just has 30 runners etc. Playing 10 hours straight every day for the rest of the year just isn't what I want so I'm gonna play hypers and CAP which will mean much less hrs required.
Need to earn 400K VPP by the end of the year
Going to play 200-500Zoom, 2/4-5/10 CAP, 60-200 Hypers, Various other mid-high stake SNGs and possibly some lower stake Hypers/Zoom/SNGs when I'm really tired and wanna auto pilot.
This is gonna be one hell of a ride, and a lot of work but I've done the math and thought about it a lot, I really think I can do this, as long as I don't get raped too hard with variance.
On a side note I hereby pledge
$10 to a charity (to be determined) for every ice cream or ice block I eat until the end of the year
$10 to a charity (as above) for every DotA game I play until the end of the year (or make SNE)
I'm going to try think of some random freerolls and stuff to motivate myself and I guess keep the blog a little more interesting.
601168.58VPP as of this post.
Aiming for 750K minimum by the end of this month.
I'm backed and talked to backer about this whilst considering everything and deciding to finish this so I will be healthily rolled throughout this. Hoping to not hit any reaaaally huge swings but obviously know its possible. Will play more zoom and less hypers when and if things are going really bad.
been following your progress in the SNE thread, was wondering when the end-of-year mega-grind would start!
Originally Posted by Twistedd
Originally Posted by BigPig
Originally Posted by matss
Wow thanks everyone, appreciate all the support and like I said really hope I can do this
I've played maybe 7 hours since starting the challenge, and it's been going ok so far. The sample size is obviously ridiculously small and irrelevant but I've played 470 games with ABI $138, down $3K, although red line is $500.
Rake paid so far is like 2.1K which is pretty lol (about 12K VPP).
I haven't really set up hotkeys and tableninja properly other than some default bet sizing. When I set it up I think it should make things easier to manage because at the moment I occasionally come close to timing out, or accidentally have 20 tables running lol.
Without game selecting, I do end up in some tougher games, but I feel pre-rakeback I have at least a slight edge on a lot of the weaker regs, and there are lot of guys who are just MTT or HU regs who are obviously not fish, but don't really know ICM well etc. There also are a bunch of random games where 2 massive donks join or occasionally 3. Every few games there will be some random guy who just shoves first hand with complete air and obviously they are donating to the reg pool
Making 1600VPP+ an hr now, which is double+ my zoom rate, so feeling a lot more relaxed about this all. That being said it's only day 1.
I'm not complaining but the games feel pretty gross sometimes because you're forced to all-in for a tonne of equity with wide (and often weak) ranges. Every few seconds you're flipping or racing for $200, $300, $400 and sometimes more and it's pretty crazy how thin these edges are.. It's weird to think that 100 hypers are "high stakes" where as 500 Zoom is "mid stakes".
Villain is a very big fish, running something like 60/15 or so. Pre is a profitable shove but vs. weaker players raising is better as there is a tonne of value in playing vs. weak ranges and weak players with a hand as strong as QJs. Vs. most regs it is also just a raise as it keeps our raising (non-shoving) ranges a bit more balanced/strong.
Flop isn't a great one to bet with air since it connects with the flatting range of most players quite hard (so we have a lot less fold equity than usual) but with 2 overs and a BDFD betting esp vs. this weaker player is close to mandatory. There aren't necessarily a tonne of great turns for us to barrel but we should intend to barrel some turns and possibly rivers (that we miss) vs. this player as he is going to peel flop (and possibly turn) a bit lighter than the average player, with a weaker range too.
Turn we pick up the world in equity and this is a "scare card" for some of his range so we bet again, over-bet shoving could be ok because given how much equity we have even vs. Tx we basically don't need any fold equity but I think just betting to play the river vs. a weaker player is a bit better. Really nit picking here but I think a very slightly bigger bet may be a little better, like 96
River is a bad card to barrel and 99% of fish aren't going to believe us. There's a small chance he folds Tx but I'm not so confident. But most of his range is actually air and we beat that so I decided to c/call. This is one of the best sizings to call in general because a) we get a great price (don't need to be correct very often) and b) it isn't so small that he is unlikely to bluff.
Some fish will bluff big, but often a huge bet is strong from fish.
In general most fish also don't value-bet too thinly, so I think it's quite unlikely he bets a weak T, or even a strong T a lot of the time. With this sizing we can also discount stronger holdings like two pair+ a decent amount and I think calling is quite +EV, he can have a lot of worse flush draws, 97 Q9 J9 etc. Fish also don't turn weak show down value into bluffs, most of the time, so it's quite unlikely he will bet Axdd Axcc or 3x/3xdd which obviously improves our equity significantly.
I did however forget a player who runs 60VPIP + probably can have a lot more T3 K3 type hands than the usual player :P
Still think the call is +EV, I probably made the post longer than necessary though, lol
610017.97VPP now, hopefully will have 625K by the end of tomorrow
Also got my 5th (I think) royal today in a 200.
Last edited by OMGClayDol; 11-11-2012 at 10:45 PM.