Hi,

Some point last year, I did the same above challenge with some success. I managed to move up to 50NL with 20BI. Picked up a few BI and moved my entire roll over to Stan James (to collect the sizeable bonus).

All was going swimmingly... Amazing in fact. I had taken a starting roll of $1.3k and took it, on Stan James, to a little over $1.5k... And then, this happened.



Baring in mind, SJ uses 50 Euro tables. Still, a downswing of about 14BI. And very quick indeed.

I have had downswings before. But nothing this brutal, and this fast. So I took a break from the game. It was meant to be a month, but ended up being 3 thanks to uni work.

I did, however, play on Stars last month. The 5.50 STT the choice. I posted a small $20 proffit through 30 games. Things, however, were not alright. Despite the fact I managed to crack aces (which flopped trips) with my quads 4s (4 OTT, 4 OTR), I was witnessing some signs that the downswing had not gone away. So, I took another break from the game.

And just before Christmas, I felt ready to play again. 25NL cash games on a roll of $900.

Erm, yeah... 4k hands in, and I have already dropped another 6 or so BI.



Resulting in a graph for 50NL and 25NL of this:



Poker can be an evil game. I understand bad beats and variance... you learn to get used to it, but that is an evil downturn in fortune.

But, as you can see. I was up a fair bit a $25NL. Beating it at about 4bb/100. I really do feel like I am capable of winning at these stakes. I also feel like I'm playing well. Making some good reads, good value bets, good bluffs (for once). I feel confident pre flop with my light 3B game and occasional light 4B game. I am making some good post flop folds that the standard fish at 25NL wouldn't. The game is there... Im just being kicked every so often by lady luck for her pleasure.

By the way, I do happen to own leak buster. So if anyone could suggest a way to use it to plug some leaks (luck isnt exclusivly why I am loosing atm. Bad play is epected at the micros from me). Also worth noting that I seem to be loosing at SD alot with one pair hands. 63bb/100 (at 25NL. Also loosing with high card at 800bb/100). Can anyone have a look at there DB and tell me how they are doing, at SD with one pair hands??

So, the challenge:

Get myself to 50NL by Easter.

Take shots at 20BI like last time.

1k hands a day. Approx 30K a month.

Post a few hands in here that need looking at - not the bad beat hands or big winners.

Day 1, 25/12/11, 25NL, Pokerstars:

So much for Christmas spirit!

After 2k hands, down approx $80 - after, at one point, being up $50. Nasty last 700 hands.

Highlights:

1) flopped a gutshot + flush draw + weak top pair. Villain had slightly better flush draw. Flush draw comes through

2) I open raise AKo UTG. Fishy villain calls with ATs. 3rd villain 3B, I 4B (he is all in). Fishy villain, for some reason still willing to call a 4B with such a trashy hand.

Yes, I should have 4B all in... but, i wasn’t expecting fish to come along for the ride.

He pairs. My bluff on a dry turn didn’t work out.

Shame, but it was forcing all of villains range out that checks a 2 toned flop IMO. Didn’t expect to see AT which has been played so awfully.

3) standard KK vs AA bad beat twice. In fact, had a 200BB + KK vs AA loss the day before which was not called for.

Day 2, 26/12/11, 25NL, Pokerstars:

Bad day at the office. 799 hands so far in the day, down $66.

Bad beat after bad beat. Lucky river card after lucky river card.

Things started well. My QQ held up vs ATo AI pre flop. Villain, on BTN, open raised to 20BB. I rejamed over the top of him ruling out KK, AA. He calls (!!), and bemoans his luck as he leaves the table. One of the many complete morons I would deal with today.

Things then returned to normal. The highlight losses are:

1) KQ vs QJ on QQJ flop.

2) KJs flopped TP and a flush draw vs fish. Turn (top) two pair. Don’t make river flush but still go for value. Villain, of course, has hit his gutshot OTT.

This hand perhaps represents why my red line is so good (apparently I’m running above all in EV - a shambles of an indication on how good you are running). Im more than happy to stack off OTT, and god know why villain didn’t agree. But when I get to the river, my red line seems to neglect the massively irritating bad beat OTT.

3) A6 on TTA 2 toned board. BvB. Villain a short stacked aggro fish. Im ch/raising all in happily. Villain will call very light indeed... He, of course, has himself KT for the win. Shame, but not too bad. Happy with play and a small loss.

4) AK, vs KTo all in pre flop. Villain hits river gutshot for T high straight. Small loss, so not to bad. But an indication of how I'm running.

So yeah, things are not going as well as hoped. But, I still have faith in my ability (Non what so ever in any opponents play. I have seen people today who I considered decent calling my 3B with Q2s! Hit the 2 OTR for good measure)

Roll therefore has fallen to $728 (Approx 1/2 my roll in the space of 14k hands... Ouch). I am contemplating jumping ship and 8 tabling 25NL Full ring rather than 6max games that I curently do. We shall see if the reduced variance helps me...

Scratch the above idea.

Im going to drop down to 10NL 6 max (may withdraw $100 odd from the account and buy a nice bottle of scotch!!!). Regain some confidence and continue to study the game (Reading through the Harrington on online cash book - good book so far. Well worth the purcahse despite what some Amazon reviews say!!)

Im therefore going to look to stick at 10NL and rebuild my roll. Look to plug some leaks after I have played 50k+ hands (using leak buster. I have improved as I played the 40k hands at 25NL and the hands at the start do not represent the improved me) And move back to 25NL when I feel happy. 40BI should do at 25NL

2.3k hands complete at 10NL and I'm settling in nicely.

Plenty of morons at these stakes, so I am looking forward to my stay

Down $3.22 for the day (roll stands at $725). Though, I felt I played okay with the exception of one hand posted below.

Mixed bag of hands. Started off with a few standard bad beats. Picked up some lovely hands and made the most of them, and then finished with some more bad luck.

KK is now a cursed hand atm. Cracked by 33, but... at least my play was correct!

Anyway, this is a horrible hand.

I get the feeling I played this badly right from the flop. Looking back, I would bet: Larger OTF (though, this is the smalles mistake). Much larger OTT (Pot). and Ch/F OTR.

I had only 6 seconds left on the time bank and the pressure got to me. I put him on the flush too... so why on earth can I not fold a set? (Leak in my game, though... at these stakes generally folding a set is a mistake. Here, however, is an example when I should be looking to throw it away. I would, without any question, fold at 100NL+ stakes. Just at 10NL, its in the back of my mind that my opponent is simply clicking buttons)

Villian - 31/13/1.8 awful player. Which makes this river call even worse!!



One other thing. I know this is a little too early to tell, but... my red line (Won without SD) is awful. After 2k hands, already lost 4BI!! It works out to be something like -17bb/100. That, for me, seems awful. Yes, I know bluffing here is suicide and as a result, big negative red lines are expected, but that seems a little too much. Anyone who has played 10NL in the past few months with a good few hands, could you tell me how your red line looks??

Day 3, 27/11/11 session 1 -

Up 3BI today from 970 odd hands at 10NL. Downswing over...? Lets hope so.

Picked up some good hands, punished the fish - which makes a change. Pretty much all my losses are to bad players rather than the better players which, imo, bodes well for the future!

Dissapointingly, I dopped $24 in the w$wosd collum. Granted, I like to CB the flop and rarely barrel at these stakes (fish either call too light OTT and OTR. Or, fish call too strong OTF) so perhaps I shouldnt be worried... but I am :/

Further, I have noticed a trend. I'm loosing alot of money when facing a raise pre flop. Is this standard... or, a massive leak??

GL mate


For my idea of a standard TAG redline, check my P&C thread 10nl graph
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...thday-1144779/

What do you mean you are losing money when facing a raise pre flop? Do you mean when you get 3 bet and you flat? Or when people raise and you flat?

Post your Leak Buster screen 1 results, and I can give you a run down of what's going on.

Thanks. Roughly -15bb/100 seems a standard loss rate. I will give it at least 20k hands before worrying about it

If you load up HEM (Im sure PT3 will have a similar report) and load up the Pre flop activity report, I am loosing money when facing a single pre flop raiser...

Will do in a second

This will be of my 40k hands at 25NL.

EDIT: do you mean the "guide" page?? If so, advance or simple view?

Second session of the day, and were back to normal it seems.

All was going well... I cant stop picking up quads! 4th in 3 days!!!

And then a few standard bad beats to ruin the day. No matter how many time I tried, my hand vs a flush draw simply could not hold up! Loss of $36 from 770 hands.

Oh well, tomorrow is another day, and its hardly a desaster. Down half a BI for the day - could have been much worse!!

Yeah, just the simple view is fine for now. If we need more we can go to the specific steps, but this is the best place to start. Also, there is a manual in your HM directory. It's accessible from the step 1 advanced view as well.

You seem to moan a lot abotu awful players making awful plays. They're the ones giving you $$ learn to love them.

It would be easier to love them if they would stop hitting gutshots every day of the week. I know (and working on it) I should play ABC value bet poker vs these players rather than try and outfox them from the start - which is what I frequently do and then find myself in a spot of bother (see hand in post above... that was me giving credit to an opponent who could bluff here... no one ever bluffs here in 10NL!!!).

Last session of '11.I have improved as a player a lot this year and all though a break even year (at best), a good one non the less.

Next year I know I need to add volume to my game. 8 tabling 10NL seems to be one way of playing 30-45k hands a month so next year should be the year I begin to move up the poker ladder!

Last session of the year saw a small $7 profit from 1.2k hands (down 32c in the 5.5k hands I have played at 10NL). Nothing major happened (did earn silver, so January should be a good month in the FPP side of things!) tbh, except one hand.

I had QQ in EP, raised. Fishy looking, aggro 3Bettor, short stacker 3B me. I jam, he flips over AA (my range for him is AT+, TT+. And that maybe on the tight side for him! My play therefore was standard IMO). I hit my Q OTT to pick up a small ish pot.

Other than that, it was a straightforward session.

Happy with my play after the first 5k hands at 10NL... looking forward to 2012. Happy new year everyone!!

Leak buster pic: 40k hands at 25NL. Standard version of leak buster used. Will run one of these on the 10NL stats after 10k hands or so - not a massive sample, but maybe something will pop up







EDIT: I am thinking of upgrading leak buster from standard to pro... is this worth the investment... or should I wait until i'm playing 50NL+?

I am also thinking about buying note cady. It looks rather cool tbh, and will surly help with accurate ranges. Or am I expecting too much from this particular app??

Best of luck OP.

Also from Newcastle > You play live much?

Thank you

I'm not a massive live player tbh. Had one go at a freeroll in aspers - cost me £40! so not very free after all! (AA cracked by A8s. And then ran in to a flopped straight from a man who should have put the lotto on that night!!)

Been tempted to give the cash games a go, but 1) Im likely to get bored quickly. I tend to go to the casino with mates, and they are not likely to enjoy the idea of a 2-3 hour grind at the tables. I also dont know anyone else who plays regally at the casinos. 2) I simply cant afford too - bit of a bankroll nit.

Been very tempted to go to the G (i think), with its very cool looking poker room on the second floor. Will look to get a few live £10 tourneys (no rebuys/addon) in the new year

IMO the best casino around is Circus! best room, best staff best overall experience. Although there is more action at Aspers and the game's are relatively soft. The G' is at the bottom of the list. Card room staff are ridiculous at rulings (Example, guy punched the player to his left after losing hand, bouncers took him outside, card room manager then let the guy back in and let him sit down next to the guy he had punched!) and there always seem's to be bad press (When it comes to some pretty bad stuff at the tables) coming out of there. The tournaments at the G' pretty much don't get above 20 runners while the MTT's at Circus and Aspers have some selling out at 120 runners.

I play live more often than not (Although not as much I would hope, plan on changing this in 2012), so if you need any advice on best nights ect ect feel free to PM me.

Will be following your thread with interest Sir! Best of luck in 2012

Best of Luck Sir. Will be following with Interest. Feel free to shoot me a PM anytime

I like circus - I enjoy the £2 blackjack. Best value in town. Will have to pop in and see what the cash games are like in the near future.

Been looking at the tourneys. A pretty nice £20 freezeout at the G on Saturday (8.30). And a good looking £15 freezeout on tuesday too. May not be the best place to play, but will give it at least one go.

Aspers on a wednesday and saturday afternoon look good

Not much that interests me at Circus. Monday tourney maybe. Perhaps you know the best tourneys up to around £20 (freeze out preferably - Or those limited to 1 rebuy. I HATED the first hour and a half of the free roll I played)

2012 Poker Goals

• 50NL (Or taking shots) by Easter (15th April) - looking to take shots at about $1200 maybe? Though, I want some time at 25NL too.
• Back at 25NL by the end of Feb.
• Start using Deuces Cracked again once I'm back at the 25NL stakes
• Continue the poker education - read a few book, post more in these forums, self analyze my database every so often and run (and use the results) Leak buster at least every month.
• May start to look at Pot Limit Omaha - The game has interested me for a while, just never had the time to sit down and learn it. May buy an introduction book and see if it grabs me more than NLHE. (suggestions of books/resources welcomed)

Jan Poker Goals

• 30-35k hands per month 8 tabling 10NL 6 max games. Unlikely I will play every day, so my weekly target is 8.5k hands. Which is about 1.7k hands per day, 5 days a week - STICK TO THIS. Any week I am behind, I will have to catch up on the weekends.
• Play more on weekends when the opponents are likely drunk / tired. I'm a bit of a night owl, so my best poker is played in the evenings / early mornings!
• Post in this thread often with progress reports, troubled hands, etc.
• Get my uni work completed ASAP. The faster I get on with it, the more poker I can play!!

I have been doing some maths, should I win at say 3bb (big blinds, not big bets. im still not sure which is which)/100, I will be boosting my roll to something near $950 in Jan. Continue this win rate through Feb, its at a healthy $1100 which is more than enough to move back to 25NL.

I am also hoping FTP gets sorted over the next few months and i will look to move over to FTP once again - should there be some form of bonus on offer for returning players and RB stays/ improves. But that is too far in the future!

I should be back on the grind tomorrow when my mate has left. Will try and do 2k - 2.5k hands tomorrow to make up for today.

Happy new year all!!

Okay, it has just come to my attention the rake changes at Stars and this will hit my $$$ won per month (I include VIP bonuses and stuff as part of my win rate).

I will be giving it about a week before deciding where my immediate future (Jan and Feb at 10NL) is. I may look to move over to a site which offers a flat RB scheme (the more the merrier) which will help me boost my roll to something which can play the 25-50NL games at stars so I can chase SN this year - where the real reason for playing on Stars stars.

First session down, 604 hands for a loss of $13.

Only hand of note was the very predictable AA vs KK spot in villians favor. MP open raises , I 3B and villain 4B me... Really not too sure if I should be looking to fold KK here or not?

Villain was a standard nitty TAG type. ABC player if you will. Had not 3B / 4B in the past 60 odd hands, and was playing something like an 18/15 game - give or take.

Should I be looking to fold KK here? Given this villain is likely only doing this with AA / KK??

Other than the poker, it seems I have been short changed with VPPs. HEM says I paid $5.15 in rake. Stars should have gave me 36.05 VPP for this ($1 rake = 7VPP at 10NL)... Why the f*ck they changed the system is beyond me - I am, it would seem, looking to move on from this shambles of a site.

1st session down at boyle sports (moved for a good deal) and a loss of $35 (at $20NL)

The site is okay I guess. A noticable lack of audio when you are running out of time is about the most annoying thing I have seen here - but I will live with that. Oh, and its a litte on the slow side. Pushing about 10 hands a min and I 8 table - Though, that may have been me slowing things down :P

The session was an interesting one. Played good, picked up some nice hands - didnt get paid off. Ran in to two notable bad beats

My QQ on a JT9 2 toned flop. Villain had himself A8 and hit his 7 OTT. Villian was short stacked - dont mind the all in.

And my large overpair vs villians small over pair - he rivers his set.