The sizing in this line is fun.

Question for you guys.

Solver has hands like AQs/AJs mixed OTF vs a merged XR. Are you guys folding gutshots with an overcard OTF?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 17.2% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 25.4% | Hands: 1150]
SB ($39.01) [VPIP: 21.5% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 37.2% | Hands: 1115]
HERO ($38.07) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.2% | Flop Agg: 38.4% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Cold Call: 10.7% | Hands: 169353]
UTG ($25.64) [VPIP: 17% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 26.1% | Hands: 1545]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 21.2% | AGG: 26.8% | Hands: 138]
CO ($25.50) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 35.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 30.4% | River Agg: 34% | 3Bet: 9.4% | 4Bet: 12.3% | Hands: 2057]

Dealt to Hero: 2 2

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.62, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.37

Hero SPR on Flop: [18.57 effective]
Flop ($1.34): K T K
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.44 (Rem. Stack: $24.44), HERO Raises To $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $35.90), CO Calls $1.11 (Rem. Stack: $23.33)

Turn ($4.44): K T K 7
HERO Bets $2.22 (Rem. Stack: $33.68), CO Calls $2.22 (Rem. Stack: $21.11)

River ($8.88): K T K 7 9
HERO Bets $5.74 (Rem. Stack: $27.94), CO Calls $5.74 (Rem. Stack: $15.37)

Solver hates it but we don't have as much SDV as we think. Bonus points if we get AQ to fold.

Theory is insane for this hand. BB is never supposed to bet AxK or AxJ. No one does this.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($28.35) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.2% | Flop Agg: 38.4% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Hands: 169353]
SB ($25.70) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 35.7% | Hands: 2057]
BB ($60.16) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 29.7% | Flop Agg: 30.8% | Turn Agg: 27.7% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 8% | Fold to 3Bet: 36.4% | 4Bet: 33.3% | Hands: 853]
UTG ($30) [VPIP: 13.5% | PFR: 11.3% | AGG: 26.9% | Hands: 150]
HJ ($26.26) [VPIP: 18.1% | PFR: 12% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 83]
CO ($25.85) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 19.8% | AGG: 27.2% | Hands: 251]

Dealt to Hero: 6 A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Raises To $2.62, HERO Calls $2.02

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.82 effective]
Flop ($5.34): 7 9 A
BB Bets $2.56 (Rem. Stack: $54.98), HERO Calls $2.56 (Rem. Stack: $23.17)

Turn ($10.46): 7 9 A 5
BB Bets $3.56 (Rem. Stack: $51.42), HERO Calls $3.56 (Rem. Stack: $19.61)

River ($17.58): 7 9 A 5 Q
BB Checks, HERO Bets $19.61 (allin)

I'm trying to reverse-engineer this theory. I assume it's because IP overbluffs at high frequency but not often enough versus a small-sizing. My intuition is that most would bet small because it's tough to be polar (since on 4-to-a-flush boards 2nd or 3rd nuts don't function as nutted, plus the PFR shouldn't have many pure bluffs). I mean an OOP small river bet makes sense as it might induce and also get called by some two-pair/small flushes.

It's a weird spot because population is never playing the way a solver is OTF. It's a very high frequency X OTF as BB here.

The concept is this I think.

IP is value jamming hands as weak as 6c6x so OOP knows this and can just check all nut hands because it auto stacks weak flushes in theory. It's also not worried about getting value from sets because those raise a lot OTF/OTT in theory.

We are basically checking all nut hands which alligns with your first point. Our goal is to trap bluffs not cooler a lower flush since the flushes bet themselves.

Okay this concept is interesting.

Your bet sizing is based off what part of your opponent's range you are putting in 0EV spots.

When the 2tone flop turns into a 4 flush runout. Some of the flushes that are 0EV to a jam now always bet when OOP checks.

That makes us incentivized to check more nutted hands to IP.

GTO uses so many sizing's on these runouts because it's targeting all different hand classes but if you simplify it and break it down it becomes a lot easier to understand.

Let's say it's a SB3BETvsBTN spot. And we decide to choose a standard sizing structure on the FCT so B25/B33/river we use 2 sizings so B33/Jam

Flop is AK9

5 OTT
2 OTR

You never bet AxQc/AxJc/AxTc

My reasoning is because all the EV comes from inducing bluffs. Also if you jam you put weaker flushes in 0EV spots but if you check the weaker flushes always value bet so you win from both hand classes.

You value own the weak flushes and you induce vs the bluffs so that means we check all nutted hands OTR that block calls. AxQc never bets but QxQc does.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($26.07) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 31% | Hands: 4119]
SB ($37.93) [VPIP: 32% | PFR: 26.7% | AGG: 31.4% | Hands: 77]
HERO ($29) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.2% | Flop Agg: 38.4% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Cold Call: 10.7% | Hands: 169544]
UTG ($34.45) [VPIP: 28.9% | PFR: 23.2% | AGG: 28% | Hands: 200]
HJ ($25.71) [VPIP: 36.1% | PFR: 10.2% | AGG: 34.1% | Hands: 376]
CO ($26.04) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 18.9% | AGG: 35.8% | Flop Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 9.4% | 4Bet: 20% | Hands: 1112]

Dealt to Hero: 6 7

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [23.22 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 2 5 K
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $25.18), HERO Raises To $1.27 (Rem. Stack: $27.23), CO Raises To $3.19 (Rem. Stack: $22.35), HERO Raises To $6.61 (Rem. Stack: $21.89), CO Folds

Can't see a boat playing like this but gg if he has it. Qx makes more sense.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($23.08) [VPIP: 26.8% | PFR: 17% | AGG: 23.7% | Hands: 869]
SB ($99.11) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 33.3% | Hands: 4]
BB ($31.53) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 34.5% | Flop Agg: 36% | Turn Agg: 37.5% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 6.4% | 4Bet: 18.6% | Cold Call: 7.1% | Hands: 1303]
UTG ($25.10) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 40.9% | Hands: 846]
HJ ($31.09) [VPIP: 28.2% | PFR: 16.4% | AGG: 26.3% | Hands: 449]
HERO ($29.15) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.2% | Flop Agg: 38.4% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | River Agg: 42.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Hands: 169633]

Dealt to Hero: K 3

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.55, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.45, BB Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.33 effective]
Flop ($1.65): 9 3 Q
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $28.19), SB Folds, BB Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $30.57)

Turn ($2.47): 9 3 Q 9
BB Bets $0.77 (Rem. Stack: $29.80), HERO Calls $0.77 (Rem. Stack: $27.42)

River ($4.01): 9 3 Q 9 4
BB Bets $1.25 (Rem. Stack: $28.55), HERO Raises To $27.42 (allin)

I have a fish hand wanted to ask you about lol, is call or raise on river higher EV? appreciate any thoughts as always

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 112.52 BB
Hero (SB): 316.52 BB
BB: 123.08 BB
UTG: 120 BB
MP: 231.76 BB
CO: 101.4 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A Q

UTG raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.4 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, fold, UTG calls 12.6 BB, fold

Flop: (33.4 BB, 2 players) 2 5 Q
Hero bets 7.92 BB, UTG calls 7.92 BB

Turn: (49.24 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, UTG bets 12.28 BB, Hero calls 12.28 BB

River: (73.8 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, UTG bets 18.44 BB, Hero?

I’m not in my right mind but Shakespeare could write Sonnets about the turn play. A double FD board and you unblock literally everything and decide to calll? That hurts me.

I fold turn as a giant **** him for playing face up with KK. All notes against him in the future from said bets make him hate life.

Vs reg I for sure jam turn but this C-B-B line has a lot of spazz from fish that we want to keep in right? I feel like I run into so much random air in this line vs fish but not 100% sure which line is higher ev.

Is he a fish? Yeah against a fish snap call him down.

Also X to a fish OTT. Fish are paradoxical.

Fish love to slow play value but fast play bluffs.

It’s ironic because the uninitiated will look at a Fish and see a XR frequency of 10% OTF and automatically assume that’s a stronger range than a regular when it’s the exact opposite.

At the end of the day, poker is a people game. Unless you play on GG.

Fish fast play lines weak and slow play lines strong. Your $300 coach an hour won’t tell you this.

Yeah sorry should of been more clear that he was a fish (which he is lol), I was playing the saulo costa line B-XC-XC, but ig my question was whether you thought x/r or x/c river was better, not sure if AQ is too thin here or not.

MDA principle that I learned from Saulo before I was exiled.

Value bet fish thinner than regulars because why? Fish don’t know why they bet so they bet merged out of ignorance,

And they also over defend out of ignorance to save face.

MDF is a hill you don’t want to die on when playing against Moby Dick

Fair enough lol, felt a bit thin but I jammed in game, I do think this is a clear value jam but was kinda clouded by cognitive bias from losing this hand. you had me spooked for a sec earlier when you called out his exact hand hahaha

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 112.52 BB
Hero (SB): 316.52 BB
BB: 123.08 BB
UTG: 120 BB
MP: 231.76 BB
CO: 101.4 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A Q

UTG raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.4 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, fold, UTG calls 12.6 BB, fold

Flop: (33.4 BB, 2 players) 2 5 Q
Hero bets 7.92 BB, UTG calls 7.92 BB

Turn: (49.24 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, UTG bets 12.28 BB, Hero calls 12.28 BB

River: (73.8 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, UTG bets 18.44 BB, Hero raises to 98.68 BB, UTG calls 66.36 BB and is all-in

Hero shows A Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 32%, Flop 22%, Turn 11%)
UTG shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 68%, Flop 78%, Turn 89%)
UTG wins 231.4 BB

Well the theoreticians will claim a cooler but after many painful sessions i understand that you need to just call river, especially in this formation.

What I realized is that splitting with value is not enough, you need to beat value at the end of the day. And saying this in a forum is way easier than doing this in game so I don’t really think you misplayed your hand in a vacuum.

But if you play your A+ game and really dig deep you know it is misplayed based on population tendencies.By jamming AQ you are assuming KQ is a snap call.

wait sorry im a bit confused now, you just said earlier we should value bet thinner vs fish lol, so do we think fish will call with enough KQ and worse hands here for jam to be better than call?

UTGvsBB is rare and not easy to process.

Yeah sorry if I’m being confusing. I’m thinking through this spot myself.

My problem with the jam is it doesn’t make sense when I step back and look at tendency incentives. We know from MDA that fish hate value betting thin so we see from range composition OTR that they X back top pair way more than regs OTR ( solid video on the average fish tendencies that is in the que) and over bluff air.

The fundamental mistake that is made here is you attribute a reg range to a fish OTR. My maxim is when in doubt don’t value bet thin.

And a theoretical principle is also at play here. If they are ever folding 0EV bluff catchers don’t ever raise for thin value

Today's Video talks about an alternative way to play AK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-QwxP74b4M

I decided to start a discord server. Everything will be 100% free. I will share all my MDA in this server for free and we can discuss videos from the channel etc.

If you would like to join you can private message me or post your screen name here and I will add you.

Cheers.

Range Donk Spot OTT.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($23.34) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 13]
HJ ($26.09) [VPIP: 31.4% | PFR: 31.4% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 36]
HERO ($37.70) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.2% | Flop Agg: 38.3% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | 3Bet: 10.4% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Hands: 170948]
BTN ($25.25) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 16.6% | AGG: 19.6% | Flop Agg: 22.6% | Turn Agg: 17.1% | 3Bet: 9.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 44.8% | 4Bet: 13.8% | Hands: 1085]
SB ($29.35) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 38.2% | Hands: 1368]

Dealt to Hero: A 9

HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, BTN Raises To $1.87, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $1.37

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.72 effective]
Flop ($4.09): K A Q
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $2.38 (Rem. Stack: $21), HERO Calls $2.38 (Rem. Stack: $33.45)

Turn ($8.85): K A Q J
HERO ?

Jam range!

Cool concept here, don't barrel turn because the target is drawing dead. Turn is a donk spot for CO as well.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
CO ($28.56) [VPIP: 24.5% | PFR: 19.8% | AGG: 27.3% | Flop Agg: 31.5% | Turn Agg: 26.2% | River Agg: 24.3% | 3Bet: 7.5% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 1645]
HERO ($23.23) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.1% | Flop Agg: 38.3% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.2% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 171209]
SB ($35.38) [VPIP: 29.9% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 31.8% | Hands: 444]
BB ($61.84) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 19.3% | AGG: 46.2% | Hands: 485]
HJ ($31.29) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 20]

Dealt to Hero: T T

HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.55, HERO Raises To $1.93, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $1.38

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.06 effective]
Flop ($4.21): T 4 4
CO Checks, HERO Bets $1.35 (Rem. Stack: $19.95), CO Calls $1.35 (Rem. Stack: $25.28)

Turn ($6.91): T 4 4 5
CO Checks, HERO ?


Also video today is on how to play Fish in 3bps. <5 min video but illustrates two mistakes population is making vs fish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb9-...ature=youtu.be