I was actually curious how much you factor in how tight the fish is in spots like these, I generally am alot more cautious of bluffcatching vs the < 20 vpip fish but they still will have random hands and merges occasionally which makes it difficult.

I made a video on your hand here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJQZ22qpklU

Thanks for the video man just watched it, I was also thinking in game the Ah does remove alot of the obvious X/C X/C donk value hands and the board also removes alot of the combos too.

Here's the full HH:

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 97.56 BB
SB: 119.64 BB
Hero (BB): 152.4 BB
UTG: 103.64 BB
MP: 121 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, fold, SB calls 1.6 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, SB calls 10 BB

Flop: (26 BB, 2 players) 2 J 3
SB checks, Hero bets 8.16 BB, SB calls 8.16 BB

Turn: (42.32 BB, 2 players) 7
SB checks, Hero bets 30.16 BB, SB calls 30.16 BB

River: (102.64 BB, 2 players) T
SB bets 69.32 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 69.32 BB

SB shows J T (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Pre 21%, Flop 18%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 79%, Flop 82%, Turn 89%)
SB wins 229.28 BB

I was looking into donk lines for low vpip fish in my db and they do bluff noticeably less than normal fish which was the part that made this call difficult, but maybe the low spr and blocker effects make up for that.

Yeah sometimes it's not clear if our opponent is a reg or a fish. Something I would like to study more is the nuances/archetypes of different regs/fish because the generic reg/fish tag is not sufficient in certain spots (like this one).

In the future you can value bet him much thinner. For example, AJ would always check back river in theory but if we know he is donk leading hands like 2 pair and presumably flushes, now we get to go for thin value OTR.

Reg play is more science than art but fish play is more art than science. Another thing we can do is to start raising bigger preflop. We know from theory that hands like AK/JJ love going 2 streets on a lot of run outs in 3BPs because:

1. AK gets to cooler weaker Ax OTT
2. JJ is strong but vulnerable and usually doesn't want to see a lot of rivers

Now this is an OOP concept more than an IP concept but since fish over value absolute value it can work well IP too. If we manipulate the SPR to 3ish instead of the usual 4 we can go 2 streets on dynamic boards (2 FD's boards/3 straight boards) and fish will over value all top pair and also overcall with their FD's.

A lot of good concepts in this HH, thanks for sharing.

Todays video goes over Theory but also show's MDA. In this spot Theory and MDA converge to show us why we need to be even more aggressive than a solver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQAHb4mjUxw

PSA:

Guys be very careful of receiving private messages from people you don't know/have had little interaction with.

Someone messaged me asking to talk on discord and then I couldn't "find them" on discord. So he sent me another link to a discord like server but not discord.

I didn't click the link because I didn't trust it.

Now I get a message from the same person telling me his account had been hacked.

As a precaution:

Don't click any weird links from people. Stick to the main sites like youtube/discord etc.

A common strategy these guys use is to start off on a legitimate website but then act suprised that it's not working for some bull**** reason and try to get you offsite.

Stay safe!

Not video worthy but cool hand.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($28.11) [VPIP: 20.2% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 27% | Flop Agg: 32.4% | Turn Agg: 16.7% | River Agg: 31.3% | 3Bet: 12.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 418]
SB ($25.45) [VPIP: 19.7% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 34.2% | Hands: 3362]
HERO ($29.55) [VPIP: 28.2% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.6% | Flop Agg: 39.4% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.6% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.5% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 150181]
UTG ($25) [VPIP: 14.6% | PFR: 11.2% | AGG: 32% | Hands: 748]
HJ ($33.64) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 30% | Hands: 30]
CO ($28.48) [VPIP: 34.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 50.8% | Hands: 188]

Dealt to Hero: T K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.30, BTN Calls $2.70

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.7 effective]
Flop ($6.70): 4 Q 7
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

Turn ($6.70): 4 Q 7 Q
HERO Bets $3.35 (Rem. Stack: $22.90), BTN Calls $3.35 (Rem. Stack: $21.46)

River ($13.40): 4 Q 7 Q 3
HERO Bets $22.90 (allin), BTN Folds



I will do a video on this spot because I think people don't know what to do here and I have MDA for it with filters.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($33.52) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 19.7% | AGG: 40.6% | Hands: 2427]
SB ($18.61) [VPIP: 60.4% | PFR: 8.6% | AGG: 42.9% | Flop Agg: 42% | Turn Agg: 42% | River Agg: 48.1% | 3Bet: 2.6% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 51.1% | Hands: 190]
BB ($19.11) [VPIP: 20.2% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 27% | Flop Agg: 32.4% | Turn Agg: 16.7% | River Agg: 31.3% | 3Bet: 12.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 5.8% | Hands: 418]
UTG ($25) [VPIP: 14.6% | PFR: 11.2% | AGG: 32% | Hands: 748]
HJ ($101.30) [VPIP: 26.9% | PFR: 19.7% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 254]
HERO ($33.67) [VPIP: 28.2% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.6% | Flop Agg: 39.4% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.6% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 150181]

Dealt to Hero: K A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.40, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [12.07 effective]
Flop ($1.50): Q 9 6
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.37 (Rem. Stack: $32.80), SB Calls $0.37 (Rem. Stack: $17.74), BB Folds

Turn ($2.24): Q 9 6 K
SB Checks, HERO Bets $1.68 (Rem. Stack: $31.12), SB Calls $1.68 (Rem. Stack: $16.06)

River ($5.60): Q 9 6 K 7
SB Bets $5.60 (Rem. Stack: $10.46), HERO ?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($27.72) [VPIP: 14.5% | PFR: 11.1% | AGG: 32% | Hands: 764]
SB ($33.44) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
HERO ($35.17) [VPIP: 28.2% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.6% | Flop Agg: 39.4% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.6% | 4Bet: 12% | Cold Call: 10.3% | Hands: 150256]
UTG ($25.80) [VPIP: 25.3% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 35.5% | Flop Agg: 47.3% | Turn Agg: 23.8% | River Agg: 30.8% | 3Bet: 9.4% | 4Bet: 9.1% | Hands: 399]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 24.2% | PFR: 21% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 124]
CO ($25.40) [VPIP: 23.2% | PFR: 18.1% | AGG: 22.5% | Hands: 506]

Dealt to Hero: 3 5

UTG Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [23 effective]
Flop ($1.10): A K 2
HERO Checks, UTG Checks

Turn ($1.10): A K 2 7
HERO Bets $2.70 (Rem. Stack: $31.97), UTG Calls $2.70 (Rem. Stack: $22.60)

River ($6.50): A K 2 7 5
HERO Bets $31.97 (allin), UTG Folds

Woah, I thought for a second you were talking about me as I started reading that, because I pm-ed you asking if you would chat on discord. But I never gave you my discord or any link or anything, so I guess you were talking about someone else.


In your youtube video https://youtu.be/fVfAmU-eDMQ?t=174 at that timestamp, you say BB vs UTG SRP, BB wants to aggressively x/raise all those 5x hands because BB wants his 5x to realize equity. I don't understand this at all! Please explain it! All I think is, well if we x/r we stick more money in with 5x and we might get 3bet and have to fold, and also we lose the chance to x/c a small cbet (relative to how much money we'd put in with a x/r ) and have UTG checkback the turn and we see a river for the price of a cbet. Please explain the concepts at play which result in BB realizing more equity with his 5x by aggressively x/raising them as opposed to x/calling them.

(edit: the following link is the standard link youtube gives when I right click a video on youtube and click copy url, but because DDP is saying someone is sending him malicious links I thought I'd add this edit.... the video referenced in this paragraph is DDP's "Hand History Review 3BP MDA and Theory", and the timestamp is 4:37 ) https://youtu.be/t63RuBpWCnU?t=270 and in this video at this timestamp, you have IP barreling so pot becomes 48, and you have us min x/raise oop for 44.5, so total pot becomes 92.5 and we risk 44.5 for that so we need it to work 48.1% IP's 1-alpha mdf is 51.9%, but when you go into that node in GTO Wizard, IP only folds 40.1%, so in GTO, IP is WAY overcalling relative to the mathematical mdf. I've seen this in so many spots and I have no idea why it does that? There was something in the kanu7 course where kanu said it's not because we have equity so the other guy needs to defend more to prevent us from autoprofiting with our x/raises, but I can't remember what he said as being the real reason, and whatever it was, I certainly didn't understand it. And the other side of the coin is when BB calls vs a BU open, and then x/folds WAY more than the mathematical mdf. What exactly is the reason(s) for these changes?


And in another hand you called a 3bet with K9s BU vs one of the blinds, called a flop cbet on K22tt, and turn brought a second fd on some middling card like a 7 or something, and the guy barreled and you reshoved and said it's because they're overbarreling a bunch of flush draws so there are more times than there should be where he has like A7s with a flush draw and calls off and we're ahead, and also we get to fold out the lower FD's with lots of equity, which I think is really cool but I don't know how I would go about figuring out to make that play, and I don't even understand why it's good with K9s ; if we had KJ then okay I'd be totally on board, but with K9s I would think, "well this guy can have AK, KQ, KJ, KTs and probably a lot of KTo as he's 3betting from the blinds vs BU, and he's gonna be overbarreling those too, so now that's a lot more Kx that dominate us in his range than there is an increased amount of AXs flush draws that will calloff vs our reshove".

Thoughts?
Thanks!

Side note: Unless you're talking about when I posted in your "New YT Channel" thread the following :

"I have just sent you a pm on the old forumserver.twoplustwo.com/ because this new twoplustwo.com isn't counting my posts in the old one and I don't have PM privileges on the new forum. Please reply when you get the chance, thanks! "

? If that's what you're talking about, I literally linked this forum which we're on right now, copy pasted it from the url in my browser, and it's the first link that appears in google if you type in two plus two poker. Also I never sent you any message saying I've been hacked. So you must not be talking about me but just in case you are somehow, I thought I'd add this.

I am eagerly awaiting your response to my above post about various concepts!!!




Edit :
In case you're somehow talking about me when I said the PM function doesn't work on the new twoplustwo.... the new twoplustwo forum literally DOESN'T have a PM button anywhere. I posted about it in the thread "We’ve Launched the New 2+2 Platform—Check it Out!" and the link is https://twoplustwo.com/post?postId=58815537#post58815537
Additionally, in that thread, rickroll says "if you actually cared about it, you would A) start using it yourself for more than logistics and B) actually discuss with the few remaining users what they want in a redesign before you make it not after and then be surprised when people ask why you took away dms and stickies", which sounds like maybe it's not just me and PMs have been permanently removed from the new 2+2 forum....

and I found the "we've launched the new 2+2 platform - check it out" thread, on the OLD twoplustwo, which is https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/, where I got the link for the new twoplustwo, which is twoplustwo.com, and on the new one my old posts aren't counted for some reason.

@HugeWhale420

No I wasn't talking about you, this was someone else.

Okay I'll go through your questions one by one here.

We XR 5x because we are out of position. Realizing equity OOP is very hard in poker. When you play better players people don't just check down to showdown. We still have the turn and river to play and there's not many good runouts for 5x. So we check-raise more against stronger ranges but also overfold to a cbet. You see the same thing in 3bps and the same thing in 4bps. Check-raises are merged (that means you will get called by worse hands but also fold out better hands). Check-raising is the counter strategy to a strong range.

MDA Note here: Do not do this vs bigger cbet sizing, only 1/3. What you will see from population is that the bigger they cbet the more they call vs a check-raise. Big UTG flop cbets are skewed towards value so we don't check-raise the weaker hands as an exploit to this overly strong range

You cannot use MDF when talking about non river spots. It will not be accurate because both ranges still have equity to the pot. MDF also doesn't take into account board texture. MDF also assumes bluffs have no equity. It won't be accurate for these reasons but it is a useful formula to measure against.

This GTO article explains it better than I can.

https://blog.gtowizard.com/mdf-alpha/

You can prove this by nodelocking a solver to barreling range OTF (solver already does this on K22tt) and then all FD's OTT and you will see K9s always jamming OTT. In game I knew population over barrelled OTT relative to GTO and FD's even more, so I thought jamming would be a better play than just calling. Yes we will lose to better Kx but I block Kx and unblock Flush draws so the play becomes better when you take this into account.

Thanks for checking out the videos.

I'm a very big whale so I'll try to put together my interpretation in words but I'm not sure how much sense I'll make, so let's see!

So if I'm getting this, you're saying if we x/c the 5x otf, we're forced to x/f it ott very often, so we don't get to realize our rivering equity, and then also if we x/c it otf he gets a guaranteed turn+river with everything so there will be a lot of runouts where he hits 2pairs or new top pairs and his range improves overall to where he like never has any hands which need to checkback giveup otr and so then when he stabs or barrels balanced otr, now we're forced to just x/f our 5x as they are our worst hands on those runouts, so we don't get to realize a showdown either, cuz so many runouts improve so much of IP's range that he's forced to bluff everything to have enough bluffs, so now there's nothing left for him to xback on riv for us to beat with our 5x, and now if we're never realizing our showdown then why are we x/calling it otf?

Whereas if we x/r the 5x otf, now we can barrel turn and get IP off of at least some of those hands of his by the end of the turn.....actually i'm not sure what i'm thinking/saying here... like, are we really gaining something by getting him off some of his hands which otherwise would get to river with a x/r + turn barrel ? I'm not clear on this at all, hopefully you can add a lot to my thoughts here. I guess at the very least, those hands we get off with the x/r-barrel now dont see river and improve and subsequently valuebet us and extract ev from us, as they would have if we had x/c flop with a 5x.
And we get to barrel our 5x ott after x/r so now we can realize our rivering equity, so this is a gain compared to x/calling it and usually having a spot where we are x/folding turn, right?
Quick edit #2 : I meant we get to barrel our 5x ott after x/r as part of a polarized balanced range, so we get to see a river this way instead of having to x/f ott after flop x/c?


And then also.... if we could potentially choose some other x/r bluffs like lets say K2s with a bdfd, and instead x/c all our 5x, those weaker bluffs might be 0ev flop x/r or maybe they are infinitesmally marginally +ev, but then let's say our 5x would have an ev of let's say 1 in the x/c but an ev of 1.2 in the x/r, so now we'd be gaining some super negligible ev with the other random x/r bluffs but our 5x would be suffering loads, so our 5x would instead choose to x/r bluff so it doesn't waste its ev, and then there would be no room for those other trash bluffs or we would be overbluffing, so now all of that trash gets x/folded and that's how we end up with a range that way overfolds compared to the mdf number?

Please add / correct anything that i'm missing! Thanks!!


Quick edit: yeah the videos are great, I would like it if you kept making them!

I would say you are over thinking it.

You check-raise because UTG's range is too strong to just call. You will under realize equity OTT/OTR.

Now I do like to attach reasons to why a solver does something but no single reason will fully describe what a solver is doing. Once you study more with a solver you will find similar patterns in other formations and other pot types and it will become second nature.

Also, if you are new to check-raising in general. I'd recommend Uri Peleg's check-raising course. He does a very good job of breaking down exactly why we check-raise and what hand classes we do it with.

Bankroll Challenge update since April 2024:

5nl/10nl/25nl on ignition



25NL blitz/reg/bomb pot tables (mostly blitz) on ACR



2k complete out of 25k (not counting rakeback/bonus money/leaderboard towards the challenge).

Pretty surprising that Villain's play is only a 1bb mistake.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($29.12) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 53.3% | Flop Agg: 62.5% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 11.1% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 42]
HERO ($29.75) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.6% | Flop Agg: 39.4% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.6% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.6% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Hands: 150723]
BB ($34.22) [VPIP: 19.9% | PFR: 14.1% | AGG: 28% | Hands: 455]
UTG ($30) [VPIP: 26% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 30.6% | Hands: 182]
HJ ($26.42) [VPIP: 20.2% | PFR: 12% | AGG: 27.9% | Hands: 186]
CO ($36.40) [VPIP: 21.2% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 31% | Hands: 117]

Dealt to Hero: J J

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.75, HERO Raises To $3.20, BB Folds, BTN Calls $2.45

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.9 effective]
Flop ($6.65): 4 2 6
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $25.92 (allin), HERO Calls $25.92 (Rem. Stack: $0.63)

Turn ($58.49): 4 2 6 7

River ($58.49): 4 2 6 7 A