Okay this concept will print you money once you understand it. This is very subtle but we have MDA to back up our conclusions.
Like everything in poker, it's all about nuance. A slight change in a board runout can mean the difference between a river call and a river fold.
I'm going to focus on the paired river vs paired turn specifically for this spot.
Let's look at two boards that look similar but are vastly different:
8:7:27:3:
8:7:23:7:
Most people won't give much thought to these two runouts because they look similar, since they are both paired OTT/OTR and we are in a 3BP facing a triple barrel.
But let's dive into the data:
Note: This data is filtered for COvsBTN3BET B30-B-B lines (my HH is HJvsCO but the same concept applies they will just be slightly tighter since it was B50-B-B and one position earlier).
The samples are not great but the discrepancies are undeniable. If you are facing a triple barrel on 87273 or you are facing a triple barrel on 87237. You fold the first runout and you SNAP CALL the second runout.
This is because your opponent expects you to fold low and middle pair to a turn barrel so you won't have many trips on the river in the 2nd runout but you will have more trips on the 1st runout. Remember----->the stronger your perceived range is the less they bluff.
HH that inspired this deep dive.
This HH isn't perfect (they rarely are) but the concept is what is important to take away.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
River ($3.21): 5: 6: 3 K: 6:
HERO Checks, CO Bets $3.43 (allin), HERO Calls $3.43 (Rem. Stack: $1.70)
Spoiler:
CO shows: 9: T:
HERO wins: $9.57
Is folding turn too nitty in your opinion? I might find the river call here but not the turn. I feel like the K is such a strong card for the 3bettor that I always nit up on K hi boards
Is folding turn too nitty in your opinion? I might find the river call here but not the turn. I feel like the K is such a strong card for the 3bettor that I always nit up on K hi boards
Turn is 0EV in a solver but we will play rivers better than our opponent so we call. If you want to get even more granular you can realize that population is under double barreling turn which means they are overly polarized OTT when they do bet here. If they barreled like a solver they would be more merged.
For instance, if a solver cbets flop it 100% bets turn with it's entire range on a King turn. Population doesn't realize this and will X back 77-QQ too often which makes his double barrel range more polarized (and in this case weaker) which incentivizes us to call.
River ($2.49): 6 4 2 2 2
CO Bets $4.88 (allin), HERO Calls $4.24 (allin)
Spoiler:
CO shows: T K
HERO wins: $10.43
every single hand you post is just cherrypicking. At least 50% of your posted hands are played unbelievable bad und you were just lucky.
Suddenly we should play GTO vs fish - such a bulls…
In this hand we bet/bet/bet as fishes call down way too much.
every single hand you post is just cherrypicking. At least 50% of your posted hands are played unbelievable bad und you were just lucky.
Suddenly we should play GTO vs fish - such a bulls…
In this hand we bet/bet/bet as fishes call down way too much.
Sunday Funday. This is a spot where you will sometimes value own yourself but doing anything other than jamming river is leaving EV on the table. The good thing about jamming that a solver will fail to assess correctly is the fishes value range is much wider than it should be.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
Also a quick rant on all training sites. These training sites that charge $100/month (I don't even know what it is anymore it's absurd) are not entirely honest in their calculations of winrates. They are intentionally suppressing winates to boost their product. By keeping the bar low with winrate benchmarks they create an artificial sense of achievement that is not aligned with what you can truly achieve.
Here is an example.
8bb is NEVER crushing unless you are playing 5knl+ or maybe 500 zoom on pokerstars. Otherwise it is simply a good winrate.
If you are playing microstakes/small stakes you can clear 20bb+ winrates. The training sites will never tell you this because they are not incentivized too. Don't listen to them.
That is all for now.
8bb win rate is crushing over the long term. Not many people can do it. If you are over 8bb win rate you are top of the food chain player at whatever limit you are playing at. There is no way you are a coach. If you are those people deserve a refund. You can definitely have 30bb win rate is stretches but you can't sustain long term. You can do it for a few months but the variance will bring your win rate down at some point. Nobody beats variance forever. I have months of nothing 1 outter, 2 outter type situations, coolers where set over set just non stop to the point you feel sick. Those downswings will come at some point. You wont know what your win rate really is until you play around 1m hands at a given limit. And every year you should also take off .25bb off your win rate to factor the player pool getting better. The players don't get worse they continue to get tougher every year. Right now from going through your hands you question you will be lucky to break even until you improve your post flop play.
Last edited by iburydoscocaroaches; 05-07-2024 at 03:28 PM.
it's always hilarious reading microstakes threads because everyone talks so much shat and everyone thinks they are so good and yet it's a bunch of microstakes people arguing
it's hilarious because you don't get kids on the jv basketball team getting in huge arguments over how great they are or how someone else sucks how he just gets lucky hitting 3s etc
honestly this mindset is going to keep you guys at the micro levels, you're too focused on negging on others to make yourself feel better about your own inadequacies instead of spending that time and energy to get better
you don't see this behaviour out of high stakes players ever, they disagree with each other's plays just as often, but they feel no need to spend their time pointing it out every day - they just make a mental note that's how that person plays and consider how they will adjust to be better
i don't know enough about doodoo or his past to make any judgements on his skills in poker or his qualities as a person, but the daily insults brought here is just lol
at least don't make it an empty insult - drive it forward in discussion - don't say "omg you suck you fraud" instead point out specifics that highlight it
but i think best solution is you all throw $100 into the pot and we get an old fashioned hu4rollz and settle it
I'd say 8bb/100 qualifies as crushing, especially if you put in a lot of volume.
At PS NL200, over the past two years, only one reg has a winrate of >8bb/100 over more than 200k hands.
Same at NL100.
There is no way this guy is a coach haha. Anyone who thinks 8bb is not crushing the games must be mtt player who is just learning cash games is only thing I can think of. But it just goes to show mtt players in general are complete donks.
it's always hilarious reading microstakes threads because everyone talks so much shat and everyone thinks they are so good and yet it's a bunch of microstakes people arguing
it's hilarious because you don't get kids on the jv basketball team getting in huge arguments over how great they are or how someone else sucks how he just gets lucky hitting 3s etc
honestly this mindset is going to keep you guys at the micro levels, you're too focused on negging on others to make yourself feel better about your own inadequacies instead of spending that time and energy to get better
you don't see this behaviour out of high stakes players ever, they disagree with each other's plays just as often, but they feel no need to spend their time pointing it out every day - they just make a mental note that's how that person plays and consider how they will adjust to be better
i don't know enough about doodoo or his past to make any judgements on his skills in poker or his qualities as a person, but the daily insults brought here is just lol
at least don't make it an empty insult - drive it forward in discussion - don't say "omg you suck you fraud" instead point out specifics that highlight it
but i think best solution is you all throw $100 into the pot and we get an old fashioned hu4rollz and settle it
I have played more hands then anyone ever in 6 max cash games online since pre black friday never having a losing year and rarely a losing month. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say this coach should not be a coach. Any decent player who grinds cash games definitely know this guy has no clue what he is talking about. So what does that make you? Welcome to his party. Remember when they had poker table ratings? I ranked on the top 10 for heads up and 6 max year after year. Some months I was ranked number 1. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say he doesn't know what he is talking about. And we all know you are not qualified to give any advice period.
I have played more hands then anyone ever in 6 max cash games online since pre black friday never having a losing year and rarely a losing month. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say this coach should not be a coach. Any decent player who grinds cash games definitely know this guy has no clue what he is talking about. So what does that make you? Welcome to his party. Remember when they had poker table ratings? I ranked on the top 10 for heads up and 6 max year after year. Some months I was ranked number 1. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say he doesn't know what he is talking about. And we all know you are not qualified to give any advice period.
Are you still playing these days? What site and stakes if you don't mind sharing just curious. Pretty sick accomplishment to be top 10 that long in both formats.
I have played more hands then anyone ever in 6 max cash games online since pre black friday never having a losing year and rarely a losing month. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say this coach should not be a coach. Any decent player who grinds cash games definitely know this guy has no clue what he is talking about. So what does that make you? Welcome to his party. Remember when they had poker table ratings? I ranked on the top 10 for heads up and 6 max year after year. Some months I was ranked number 1. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say he doesn't know what he is talking about. And we all know you are not qualified to give any advice period.
You sound very jealous. Is it because you never completed your own BR challenge?
I have played more hands then anyone ever in 6 max cash games online since pre black friday never having a losing year and rarely a losing month. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say this coach should not be a coach. Any decent player who grinds cash games definitely know this guy has no clue what he is talking about. So what does that make you? Welcome to his party. Remember when they had poker table ratings? I ranked on the top 10 for heads up and 6 max year after year. Some months I was ranked number 1. I am pretty sure I am more then qualified to say he doesn't know what he is talking about. And we all know you are not qualified to give any advice period.
sick crusher u are sir, yet everything you posted in almost a decade is just very bad poker advice and claims, claims, claims - never any proof. but keep larping, it's 2/10 entertaining at least.
Graphs are probably faked. Deleting some losing sessions to have a great graph. Why else should it take 1week+ to have 5k hands in the graph?
Why do you hate DooDooPoker so much? Did you guys ever have a heated argument on the cash forum or theory and is this an ego thing? Are you linked to any of the former stables OP played on? Are you that guy who had a very winning redline high winrate graph who claimed it was all due to hud-based exploitation, and was OP the one who exposed you as a fraud and got the PBG thread removed? Just trying to understand the hidden agendas going on ITT.
Graphs are probably faked. Deleting some losing sessions to have a great graph. Why else should it take 1week+ to have 5k hands in the graph?
No joke. I was thinking this too but a bit too extreme of an allegation to just throw out there. But given his history I wouldn't trust anything he posts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ViktorKaBloooom
Why do you hate DooDooPoker so much? Did you guys ever have a heated argument on the cash forum or theory and is this an ego thing? Are you linked to any of the former stables OP played on? Are you that guy who had a very winning redline high winrate graph who claimed it was all due to hud-based exploitation, and was OP the one who exposed you as a fraud and got the PBG thread removed? Just trying to understand the hidden agendas going on ITT.
Confirmed scammer who is somehow a verified coach that just passes down information he gathered from other stables as his own. He only ended up admitting to it because someone called him out on it and went the ''I would've told you'' route. Yeah right.
With that being said. If you don't see how his view on a player having 8.8bb/100 over 900k hands at 200nl being ''skewed towards mediocrity'' is beyond stupid, you're clearly a moron too.