Important concept here on theory vs population.

I'm supposed to continue a lot of my range OTT, a lot of gutshots or oesd should continue OTT here so when I X I am always checking to either call or xr. Most of the population will almost never x/f on these 1 BW flops---->2BW turns when they check since they just barrel their air.

Theory will stab hands like 54s/65s/76s/A5s. Do not stab these hands in practice, your fold equity is much lower than what a solver says

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($29.90) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.7% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 343478]
BB ($10) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 87.5% | Hands: 10]
HJ ($10) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 30]
CO ($10) [VPIP: 10% | PFR: 3.3% | AGG: 37.5% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 31]
BTN ($18.06) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 44]

Dealt to Hero: A J

HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $1.20, BB Folds, CO Calls $0.95

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.52 effective]
Flop ($2.50): K 4 8
HERO Bets $1.19 (Rem. Stack: $27.51), CO Calls $1.19 (Rem. Stack: $7.61)

Turn ($4.88): K 4 8 J
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $6.06), HERO Calls $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $25.96)

River ($7.98): K 4 8 J 8
HERO Checks, CO Checks



Gross spot but I had 1 out OTT.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($33.55) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.7% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 343478]
HJ ($10) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 87.5% | Hands: 10]
CO ($4.69) [VPIP: 75% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 11.1% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 25% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 4]
BTN ($9.85) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 30]
SB ($10) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 7]
BB ($17.91) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 28.6% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 15.8% | Hands: 44]

Dealt to Hero: K 6

HERO Raises To $0.20, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.30, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.20, HERO Calls $0.10

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.62 effective]
Flop ($0.95): J 7 4
BB Checks, HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $3.98), BB Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $17.20), HERO Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $32.84)

Turn ($2.18): J 7 4 8
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.39 (Rem. Stack: $31.45), CO Calls $1.39 (Rem. Stack: $2.59), BB Raises To $4.80 (Rem. Stack: $12.40), HERO Calls $3.41 (Rem. Stack: $28.04), CO Calls $2.59 (allin)

River ($15.76): J 7 4 8 K
BB Bets $12.40 (allin), HERO Folds

Cool spot I want to look up later.

1. SB needs 2 cbet sizing's because we want to shove a bunch of spade turns. You go small and big

2. SB has very low frequency double barrel range on this turn card. I don't think players will do this in real life, I was thinking of jamming turn but it's only good if AK folds which I'm not sure about.

3. Will post results when I get them

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($10.27) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 344084]
BTN ($9.70) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 32]
SB ($13) [VPIP: 25.3% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 34.6% | Flop Agg: 36.4% | Turn Agg: 30% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 5.9% | Fold to 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 87]
BB ($13.90) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 61.5% | Hands: 42]
UTG ($11.26) [VPIP: 33.8% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 23.8% | Hands: 80]
HJ ($9.42) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 5.9% | AGG: 25.5% | Hands: 87]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $1.20, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.95

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.63 effective]
Flop ($2.50): Q K 6
SB Bets $0.70 (Rem. Stack: $11.10), HERO Calls $0.70 (Rem. Stack: $8.37)

Turn ($3.90): Q K 6 J
SB Bets $2.78 (Rem. Stack: $8.32), HERO Calls $2.78 (Rem. Stack: $5.59)

River ($9.46): Q K 6 J 4
SB Bets $8.32 (allin), HERO Folds

0/-EV turn call? As you said not much FE

Even if turn is overbarrelled, a lot of those extra combos will be value

Turn is 0EV.

What matters to me is his turn BF range, if he folds AK then shove is good, if not it is negative EV.

MDA has them overfolding in B30-B70F but I'm not sure on this specific texture.

Results.

Well, the thing about that chart is that it's straight out of Acevedo's book.

15k hand update.





See you at 20k.

Subbed! I'm learning a lot from the MDA posts. Thanks!

I havnt read any of your other threads yet. Are you a pro or a serious rec? Why such low volume?

Very impressive so far.

see you in 2025 for 30k hand update

When your read is good but variance says you lose.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($24.50) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 345675]
BTN ($10) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 10]
SB ($19.78) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 26]
BB ($11.33) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 35.7% | AGG: 61.5% | Flop Agg: 80% | Turn Agg: 60% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 40% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 14]
HJ ($11.32) [VPIP: 31.8% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 45.5% | Hands: 23]

Dealt to Hero: T T

HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Raises To $1.20, HERO Calls $0.95

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.13 effective]
Flop ($2.45): 3 K 4
BB Bets $0.77 (Rem. Stack: $9.36), HERO Calls $0.77 (Rem. Stack: $22.53)

Turn ($3.99): 3 K 4 3
BB Bets $1.90 (Rem. Stack: $7.46), HERO Calls $1.90 (Rem. Stack: $20.63)

River ($7.79): 3 K 4 3 7
BB Bets $7.46 (allin), HERO Calls $7.46 (Rem. Stack: $13.17)



This should be standard.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($17.98) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 345675]
SB ($10) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 22]
BB ($11.32) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 21.3% | AGG: 52.2% | Flop Agg: 36.4% | Turn Agg: 62.5% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 3.2% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 10.8% | Hands: 82]
UTG ($11.33) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 12]
HJ ($9.96) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 22.4% | AGG: 26.7% | Hands: 77]
CO ($16.62) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 20.2% | AGG: 27.3% | Hands: 86]

Dealt to Hero: A 6

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.15

Hero SPR on Flop: [20.13 effective]
Flop ($0.55): K 3 4
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($0.55): K 3 4 8
BB Bets $0.26 (Rem. Stack: $10.81), HERO Calls $0.26 (Rem. Stack: $17.47)

River ($1.07): K 3 4 8 5
BB Bets $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $9.99), HERO Raises To $2.87 (Rem. Stack: $14.60), BB Folds



Always check value OTR unless you are playing Linus.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($20.21) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Cold Call: 9.6% | Hands: 345675]
HJ ($2.90) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 4]
CO ($21.47) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 26]
BTN ($10.51) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 22.4% | AGG: 26.7% | Flop Agg: 11.1% | Turn Agg: 44.4% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 7.1% | 4Bet: 16.7% | Hands: 77]
SB ($10.05) [VPIP: 31.8% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 45.5% | Hands: 23]

Dealt to Hero: 6 2

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.25, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.15

Hero SPR on Flop: [18.65 effective]
Flop ($0.55): J K 5
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.17 (Rem. Stack: $10.09), HERO Calls $0.17 (Rem. Stack: $19.79)

Turn ($0.89): J K 5 2
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

River ($0.89): J K 5 2 4
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.28 (Rem. Stack: $9.81), HERO Raises To $1.54 (Rem. Stack: $18.25), BTN Calls $1.26 (Rem. Stack: $8.55)

Since I'm playing for peanuts we have to have fun with the meme's and hand histories.



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($14.32) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 345915]
SB ($9.90) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 15.4% | Hands: 33]
BB ($9.09) [VPIP: 35% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 16.7% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 10% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 18.2% | Hands: 20]
UTG ($6) [VPIP: 61.9% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 63.2% | Flop Agg: 63.6% | Turn Agg: 60% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 22]
HJ ($11.85) [VPIP: 14.6% | PFR: 10.4% | AGG: 27.3% | Hands: 49]
CO ($12.68) [VPIP: 32.7% | PFR: 22.4% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 49]

Dealt to Hero: 4 4

UTG Checks, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.40, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.30, UTG Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.48 effective]
Flop ($1.25): J 7 9
BB Checks, UTG Bets $0.39 (Rem. Stack: $5.21), HERO Calls $0.39 (Rem. Stack: $13.53), BB Calls $0.39 (Rem. Stack: $8.30)

Turn ($2.42): J 7 9 K
BB Checks, UTG Bets $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $4.56), HERO Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $12.88), BB Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $7.65)

River ($4.37): J 7 9 K T
BB Checks, UTG Checks, HERO Bets $12.88 (allin), BB Folds, UTG Folds



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($11.92) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 345915]
CO ($7.97) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 53.8% | Hands: 30]
BTN ($9.85) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 11.1% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 27]
SB ($10.05) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 80% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 33.3% | Hands: 26]

Dealt to Hero: 8 8

CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.25, HERO Raises To $0.85, SB Calls $0.60

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.41 effective]
Flop ($1.70): 7 K 9
SB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($1.70): 7 K 9 K
SB Bets $0.81 (Rem. Stack: $8.39), HERO Calls $0.81 (Rem. Stack: $10.26)

River ($3.32): 7 K 9 K 9
SB Bets $1.58 (Rem. Stack: $6.81), HERO Raises To $10.26 (allin), SB Folds

wouldn't a smaller raise size achieve the same result?

yeah smaller is higher EV but I was probably a bit lazy in game and just shipped it.

This is my favorite line for value on Ace high boards vs regs. You combine the B12 with the river check and most IP Ax will auto bet river. Didn't work out here but one day I'll get it.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($22.38) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 346043]
BB ($11.95) [VPIP: 15% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 20]
UTG ($3.56) [VPIP: 44.4% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 10]
HJ ($9.25) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 51]
CO ($12.04) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 20% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 33]
BTN ($10) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.30, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $1.30, BB Folds, CO Calls $1

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.98 effective]
Flop ($2.70): 4 T A
HERO Bets $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $20.78), CO Calls $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $10.44)

Turn ($3.30): 4 T A 5
HERO Checks, CO Checks

River ($3.30): 4 T A 5 8
HERO Checks, CO Checks

Another spot where solver and population are way off. Solver is only cbetting a little over 50% of the time here. Most players are ranging 1/3.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($11.03) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 346155]
BTN ($15.33) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 17]
SB ($10.05) [VPIP: 66.7% | PFR: 50% | AGG: 60% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 33.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 7]
BB ($13.67) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 20]

Dealt to Hero: 7 7

HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $1.15, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.90

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.71 effective]
Flop ($2.40): T J 8
SB Bets $0.57 (Rem. Stack: $8.33), HERO Calls $0.57 (Rem. Stack: $9.31)

Turn ($3.54): T J 8 3
SB Bets $2.22 (Rem. Stack: $6.11), HERO Calls $2.22 (Rem. Stack: $7.09)

River ($7.98): T J 8 3 A
SB Bets $6.11 (allin), HERO Folds



Solver hates this turn call. It's over -5bb. But once we nodelock to population tendencies the turn fold becomes a turn shove (I incorrectly called here).

I know it's just a flip but this runout will always be savage as ****.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($13.77) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 346227]
BB ($10.29) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 12.9% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 33]
UTG ($10) [VPIP: 24.2% | PFR: 21.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 33]
HJ ($9.75) [VPIP: 12.1% | PFR: 12.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 33]
CO ($7.04) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 23.1% | Hands: 17]
BTN ($13.63) [VPIP: 27.3% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 28.6% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 10% | 4Bet: 100% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 33]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.25, HERO Raises To $1.20, BB Folds, BTN Raises To $2.76, HERO Raises To $13.77 (allin), BTN Calls $10.87 (allin)

Flop ($27.50): 3 9 T

Wait for it....



Turn ($27.50): 3 9 T Q

River ($27.50): 3 9 T Q J

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($15.44) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Cold Call: 9.6% | Hands: 346420]
UTG ($10) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 23.8% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 21]
HJ ($10.75) [VPIP: 12% | PFR: 8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 25]
CO ($10) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 31.6% | AGG: 38.5% | Hands: 19]
BTN ($8.80) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 47.1% | Flop Agg: 55.6% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 14.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 36]
SB ($2.94) [VPIP: 68.8% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 30.4% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 57.1% | Hands: 17]

Dealt to Hero: 7 8

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.25, SB Calls $0.20, HERO Calls $0.15

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.59 effective]
Flop ($0.75): 6 2 7
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.24 (Rem. Stack: $14.95), BTN Calls $0.24 (Rem. Stack: $8.31), SB Calls $0.24 (Rem. Stack: $2.45)

Turn ($1.47): 6 2 7 9
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.35 (Rem. Stack: $14.60), BTN Raises To $1.40 (Rem. Stack: $6.91), SB Folds, HERO Calls $1.05 (Rem. Stack: $13.55)

River ($4.27): 6 2 7 9 3
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $4.06 (Rem. Stack: $2.85), HERO Calls $4.06 (Rem. Stack: $9.49)



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($10.45) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 346420]
CO ($21.79) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 9.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 22]
BTN ($20.40) [VPIP: 26.1% | PFR: 21.7% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 23]
SB ($9.60) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 37.5% | AGG: 100% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 33.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 9]
BB ($17.90) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 23]

Dealt to Hero: 8 9

HERO Raises To $0.25, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $1, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.75

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.1 effective]
Flop ($2.10): Q J 7
SB Bets $0.60 (Rem. Stack: $8), HERO Calls $0.60 (Rem. Stack: $8.85)

Turn ($3.30): Q J 7 5
SB Bets $2.36 (Rem. Stack: $5.64), HERO Raises To $8.85 (allin), SB Folds