Important concept here on theory vs population.

I'm supposed to continue a lot of my range OTT, a lot of gutshots or oesd should continue OTT here so when I X I am always checking to either call or xr. Most of the population will almost never x/f on these 1 BW flops---->2BW turns when they check since they just barrel their air.

Theory will stab hands like 54s/65s/76s/A5s. Do not stab these hands in practice, your fold equity is much lower than what a solver says

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($29.90) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.7% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 343478]
BB ($10) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 87.5% | Hands: 10]
HJ ($10) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 30]
CO ($10) [VPIP: 10% | PFR: 3.3% | AGG: 37.5% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 31]
BTN ($18.06) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 44]

Dealt to Hero: A J

HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $1.20, BB Folds, CO Calls $0.95

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.52 effective]
Flop ($2.50): K 4 8
HERO Bets $1.19 (Rem. Stack: $27.51), CO Calls $1.19 (Rem. Stack: $7.61)

Turn ($4.88): K 4 8 J
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $6.06), HERO Calls $1.55 (Rem. Stack: $25.96)

River ($7.98): K 4 8 J 8
HERO Checks, CO Checks



Gross spot but I had 1 out OTT.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($33.55) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.7% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 343478]
HJ ($10) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 87.5% | Hands: 10]
CO ($4.69) [VPIP: 75% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 11.1% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 25% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 4]
BTN ($9.85) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 30]
SB ($10) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 7]
BB ($17.91) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 28.6% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 15.8% | Hands: 44]

Dealt to Hero: K 6

HERO Raises To $0.20, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.30, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.20, HERO Calls $0.10

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.62 effective]
Flop ($0.95): J 7 4
BB Checks, HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $3.98), BB Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $17.20), HERO Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $32.84)

Turn ($2.18): J 7 4 8
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.39 (Rem. Stack: $31.45), CO Calls $1.39 (Rem. Stack: $2.59), BB Raises To $4.80 (Rem. Stack: $12.40), HERO Calls $3.41 (Rem. Stack: $28.04), CO Calls $2.59 (allin)

River ($15.76): J 7 4 8 K
BB Bets $12.40 (allin), HERO Folds

Cool spot I want to look up later.

1. SB needs 2 cbet sizing's because we want to shove a bunch of spade turns. You go small and big

2. SB has very low frequency double barrel range on this turn card. I don't think players will do this in real life, I was thinking of jamming turn but it's only good if AK folds which I'm not sure about.

3. Will post results when I get them

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($10.27) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.8% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.7% | Hands: 344084]
BTN ($9.70) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 32]
SB ($13) [VPIP: 25.3% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 34.6% | Flop Agg: 36.4% | Turn Agg: 30% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 5.9% | Fold to 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 87]
BB ($13.90) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 61.5% | Hands: 42]
UTG ($11.26) [VPIP: 33.8% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 23.8% | Hands: 80]
HJ ($9.42) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 5.9% | AGG: 25.5% | Hands: 87]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $1.20, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.95

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.63 effective]
Flop ($2.50): Q K 6
SB Bets $0.70 (Rem. Stack: $11.10), HERO Calls $0.70 (Rem. Stack: $8.37)

Turn ($3.90): Q K 6 J
SB Bets $2.78 (Rem. Stack: $8.32), HERO Calls $2.78 (Rem. Stack: $5.59)

River ($9.46): Q K 6 J 4
SB Bets $8.32 (allin), HERO Folds

0/-EV turn call? As you said not much FE

Even if turn is overbarrelled, a lot of those extra combos will be value

Turn is 0EV.

What matters to me is his turn BF range, if he folds AK then shove is good, if not it is negative EV.

MDA has them overfolding in B30-B70F but I'm not sure on this specific texture.

Results.