I wish you all the best, but you have absolutely no clue about variance.

15bb100 over large samples at nl50 is impossible (and if its possible for someone, it isnt you)

Quitting your job with a goal to reach nl50 in 3 months and then average 1600$/mo is insane.

Samples youre posting are irrelevant.

Sorry man, dont want to destroy your dream, but its important to be realistic with life changing decisions. gl nevertheless, i know you wont listen anyway

You better get your resume ready, because you WILL have to retire if this is what's required.

You mean like > 10 years ago?

On a side note, $1,600 is basically nothing in the real word. As per your own posts, this is the very minimum you will spend per month so you would basically have to cash out a good chunk of your bankroll and risk going broke every month. Basing your plans on delusional assumptions won't get you anywhere.

Good luck obviously, I hope it works out for you, if maybe in ways you didn't consider until now ...

Hello,
I play at Americas cardroom, mostly regular 6-max with some blitz and 9-max thrown in.

Some people are natural at poker. Not saying I am. An inspiration of mine is durrrr. He deposited $50 dollars and ran it up to millions like you probably heard. He certainly could beat 50NL for 15BB easily, even 20+. in fact he did and only moved up due to outgrowing bankroll. almost every popular pro player would win that rate at 50NL long term, but don't need to because they move up. So it certainly is not impossible.

I just don't believe in limiting challenges to those that are likely to be successful. Especially when calm and quite are the absolute enemy of someone with ADHD. I want to be under pressure to fuel the drive and motivation to play every day it going to provide me when I would rather be doing something else. I wanna go into the fire ASAP to find out if I am the one who can make a living, because right now there is no way to know if I am or not. I can't keep my job and find out if I am a great poker player, because that is splitting mental energy. I know how much study and introspection come into being great poker player, and I want to use all my mental powers for that.

Some of my earlier posts were tongue in cheek about no variance existing and such, as I do know how sdev and resulting variance works. I know enough to know that a 33BB/100 all in adjusted winrate I have so far, is pretty much proof (p <.05) that I am a minimum 2BB winner at 10NL per calculating with my sdev over my sample size.

I don't view this challenge as having potential to negatively affect my life if I fail. I am not throwing away a 6 figure job, its just an IT support job. The experience itself is going to be worth it.

Good morning to anyone still reading this,
I meditated a while on the best path for my poker career might be. The posters giving me advice here are right about 1 thing: I need to up the volume drastically.

To that end, I will play enough hands today and complete the challenge -around 2,000 hands.

My next challenge I would like to make a prop bet on, keep it exciting. I will reveal my screenname and record all the hands if anyone is interested in the action.

I am thinking of 25NL challenge: 10BB/100 over 20k hands, maximum two weeks to complete. I will issue at 1:1 odds.

You are completely delusional.

I ran hot or am just crushing it, but won 5 buyins last night, and 3 more this AM

Here are the largest winning hands from today and yesterday.

*****HAND 1*****
Unfortunate river for villain. as for Villian stats, he did did not like to give away his initiative. Was baiting a flop all in. A flop raise can get value from weaker flush draws.

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 85 BB
BTN: 237.56 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 158.8 BB
UTG: 282.36 BB
MP: 127.28 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A J

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.48 BB, Hero raises to 7.32 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.84 BB

Flop: (15.64 BB, 2 players) 4 7 9
Hero bets 7.8 BB, BTN raises to 16.92 BB, Hero raises to 28.44 BB, BTN calls 11.52 BB

Turn: (72.52 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (72.52 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN bets 58.56 BB, Hero raises to 64.24 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 5.68 BB

BTN shows T T (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 49%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows A J (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 51%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 190.96 BB


*****HAND 2*****
pretty standard i think.

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 118.6 BB
MP: 320.7 BB
CO: 121.7 BB
BTN: 103.2 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 99.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 8.9 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 23.5 BB, BTN calls 14.6 BB

Flop: (48.5 BB, 2 players) 2 9 9
Hero checks, BTN bets 24.2 BB, Hero raises to 95.1 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 55.5 BB and is all-in

Turn: (207.9 BB, 2 players) 4

River: (207.9 BB, 2 players) A
Hero cashed out 179.3 BB for a fee of 1.8 BB

Hero shows A A (Full House, Aces full of Nines)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
BTN shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)

*****HAND 3*****
sneaky turn call. I wanted him to put me on flush draw, so that is why I did not raise turn. happy with getting this much value from one pair.

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 207 BB
BTN: 124.4 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
BB: 101.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 101.5 BB
MP: 123.3 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 6

Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 7.7 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.9 BB

Flop: (16.4 BB, 2 players) 6 7 2
SB bets 4.1 BB, Hero raises to 10.7 BB, SB calls 6.6 BB

Turn: (37.8 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 18.9 BB, Hero calls 18.9 BB

River: (75.6 BB, 2 players) A
SB bets 37.8 BB, Hero raises to 64.2 BB and is all-in, SB calls 25.4 BB and is all-in

SB shows K Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 49%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 6 6 (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 51%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 191.9 BB


*****HAND 4*****
my low preflop 3bet percentage comes in handy on these flops. Using my awareness of him knowing my 3bet percentage, my uncapped range allows me to represent an overpair - while getting information on his hand strength. always critical on way ahead way behind boards.

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 100.5 BB
BB: 156.9 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 97.2 BB
BTN: 47.7 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, fold, CO calls 7.5 BB, fold

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 2 2 J
Hero checks, CO bets 12.5 BB, Hero raises to 37.5 BB, CO calls 25 BB

Turn: (100 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (100 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 50 BB, CO calls 49.2 BB and is all-in

Hero shows K A (Two Pair, Kings and Twos)
(Pre 74%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)
CO shows J A (Two Pair, Jacks and Twos)
(Pre 26%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)
Hero wins 188.5 BB


*****HAND 5***** repping the spew on river xD
Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB
BTN: 131.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 252 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T Q

fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 7 J 8
SB checks, Hero bets 1 BB, SB calls 1 BB

Turn: (4 BB, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, SB calls 3 BB

River: (10 BB, 2 players) K
SB checks, Hero bets 95 BB and is all-in, SB calls 95 BB and is all-in

SB shows K 8 (Two Pair, Kings and Eights)

Hero shows T Q (Straight, Ace High)

Hero wins 190 BB


These are just the largest 5 hands, win or lose taken from last 1000 hands played.

And your probably busto like your name says. Enjoy your 9-5 sheep LOL

I also ran 50$ into millions and I can guarantee you that durrrr would not beat NL50 for 15bb+, in fact I don't think anybody can, you can certainly run above EV and win at this rate for 100k hands though

For sure there are few if any samples out there of anyone winning at 15BB/100 rate over a truly large sample size. I think the reason is, if someone played 100k hands of 50nl and won at even 10bb/100, that would be 100 buyins - more than enough to move up to 100nl. The benefit to moving up always heavily outweighs the benefit of staying at the lower skill level, and the advantage in moving up decreases as winrate gets closer to breakeven.

I agree in any case that it would be super rare, and even agree that I will probably fail at it. I which case I will adjust with either more volume or higher stakes.

some of my earlier posts about retiring were trolling, sorry to get off track. I am serious and dedicated to adjusting wherever necessary.

I am almost certain this is possible on the site I play, and likely other soft sites like Ignition. No idea about "tough" sites like Stars international 50NLz.

i guess 2knl players say variance doesnt exist at 500nl or somethin

Willing to prop anyone for an amount over 20kusd that 15evbb possible at 50nl (over a large sample)
@Jose @xeno