I got off to a good start grinding 10NL, and aim to see if this can be sustained. Goal is to play 1k hands per day minimum, and complete in about a week.


first 1,500 hands gave me the idea to make a challenge.

What's the point of having a win rate goal for a sample so laughably small?

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yeah it may be pretty ******ed but the point of the high winrate goal it is to move up as quick as possible to 25nl. 10k hand at this winrate = $200, enough to begin 25nl.

The sample size is small but I don't think variance exists at 10NL, it all about remaining focused and tilt free. could be wrong

You are, but good luck.

update: 8.4k more hands left in challenge, $195 more dollars to win to complete challenge. I

I ran into a really aggressive player that seems to want to get into hands against me every chance. Over the course of last 3 hands I got involved with this same player, he took a buyin total with large river bets where I had middle pair or no hand. I am posting the weird hand where wanted to call so bad - Not sure if fold was correct.
his stats over 230 hands:
33 / 29 / 13.

80% cbet and 71 total postflop AFQ

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 150.6 BB
BB: 124.6 BB
UTG: 100.4 BB
CO: 94.9 BB
Hero (BTN): 101 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, BB calls 1.8 BB

Flop: (6.1 BB, 2 players) 6 2 4
BB checks, Hero bets 3.5 BB, BB raises to 13.3 BB, Hero calls 9.8 BB

Turn: (32.7 BB, 2 players) K
BB bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 10.8 BB, BB calls 9.8 BB

River: (54.3 BB, 2 players) J
BB bets 97.7 BB and is all-in, fold

BB wins 51.6 BB

if you think that variance doesn't exist at nl10, I have some bad news for you. lmao. Variance exists at every stake possible.

You are the one who quit her job and decided to make it pro at NL10? Pretty easy when you live in a 3rd world country like romania where avg monthly salary is 150€. If this is just a troll with fixed graphs then you got me.

yes I quit my job, but I will get another one if this challenge fails. I just could not work 12 hour days and still play my A game, so the job was scarified in honor of building my bankroll.

I simulated these results on an online variance calculator: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/,
basically it tells me I have a 1 in 200 chance of not being a winning player at this stake, calculating based on my results of 1,500 hands

Hi, I am back to provide my backstory and update.

I have been playing poker since 2011, although not putting in high volume. I had a 165% ROI after playing around 450 tournaments, most of these having buy-in amounts around $10-$30

I have never really played cash games at all until now. I posted this graph and the challenge, simply because my confidence with playing cash went up from being able to win big my first 1,000 hands. I always felt my analytical style was more suited to tournaments.

challenge totals so far:

original deposit: $150
current bankroll $274

I truly think and hope that I will move up to 25 NL by the end of the month, which will require $500. I am sticking to a strict $20 buy-in rule, forcing myself to prove I am a good player by winning consistently. I believe the real challenge is not at 10NL, but at higher stakes.

Here is the cumulative graph, pending end of session.

You quit your job to play 10NL?

NO, it's slightly more complicated. I quit my job to play 50NL, but It is difficult to deposit money onto the site for me. So I have to build up my bankroll first.

So, do you have a life-roll or something? How long would you have to break even to be forced into going back out there and getting a job?

It might be not enough, but about 8k set aside right now. I keep my expenses low as possible right now, but monthly minimum I spend 1,600. So I need to be crushing .50 NL in no less than 3 months time.

I'm running 4 buyins above EV so far. that is helping slow the time it takes to get my bankroll high enough for 25NL

Hello guys,

Today I shoved instead of calling or folding, for my largest loss in single hand so far. Just posting the hand to get off my chest, and maybe see if anyone thinks this was an OK shove. my opponent is a tag / nit. his stats were 17/13/6. further supporting my idea that he is a nit, his wtsd was 22%, and wsd at 61%. have 450 hands history on villian.

my stats this session were showing a high 3bet %, though he might just be fighting back.



Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 111.9 BB
BB: 107.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 114.3 BB
CO: 150.9 BB
BTN: 103.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero raises to 24.5 BB, SB raises to 40.5 BB, Hero raises to 114.3 BB and is all-in, SB calls 71.4 BB and is all-in

Flop: (224.8 BB, 2 players) T J J

Turn: (224.8 BB, 2 players) Q

River: (224.8 BB, 2 players) A

SB shows A A (Full House, Aces full of Jacks)
(Pre 82%, Flop 90%, Turn 86%)
Hero shows K K (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 14%)
SB wins 213.6 BB

You have kings and it is 100bb...

Hello there

Wish you good luck with the PG&C

You didn't mention anything about how u study.
I think even 25nl will be tough in 3 months. Also 20 BI are not safe enough imo. I would go for 50.
Game is easy but rake is ridiculous.

Have fun there

It looks like you got about 700 hands total in 3 days?

I don't know where you play, but a lot of people would consider 10BB/100 a pretty solid winrate and be happy with that at micros. If you make 10BB/100 at 50NL, 1k hands per day every day with no days off would be about $1500/month income, which doesn't meet your monthly nut. I don't know how much you've thought this through but in order to even have a chance you'll need to dramatically up your volume.

That's not what it's telling you. If you were a 55BB/100 winner that would be the chance of losing over 1500 hands. You can't take that as the chance you're a winner given this sample. Statistics doesn't work that way.

Thanks for the post. I will be doing 2k hands per day minimum 6 tabling. If I am not making 15BB/100 at 50NL I will retire, because I am not someone that like putting in high volume. I realize I might sound overconfident, but pre black Friday I maintained that winrate over 33k hand sample. I will do 2k hands per day maximum 6 tabling. I already calculated this to be around the exact amount I made at my job, $25 /hour.

I do disagree that I interpreted statistics incorrectly. Other than rounding down to 1 in 200, it is completely correct.

"If you were a 55BB/100 winner that would be the chance of losing over 1500 hands."



In other words, it is the chance of running 55BB/100 below expected value. Since variance is equally likely to occur in either direction, I can plugin in the exact same sdev value in the calculator, plug in actual winrate of 55BB/100 instead of 0, and put in 0 instead of 55 for observed winrate, keeping the number of hands the same. I tested this and the probability is the same either way.


Another way to confirm this is to play around with the sdev value until it gives probability of running 55BB/100 below ev of around 5%. then just simulate 1500 hands and look at the 95th percentile. every time it is almost exactly at the break even / 0BB mark. it would be exact if more hands were simulated. Not sure if that is best way to illustrate it.

Update on the challenge. I am only 28% complete with 2,870 hands so far. last day at the job was today though, so in the next 3 days I should be able to complete it. Gotta go do some major gym work before I am in the mood to grind though.

1) Got smacked around at 10NL Blitz today. the skill level seems higher than regular and bomb pot 10NL by far. I bet small purposefully on the pot in order to make it less viable to call with a set . By just calling he led me to think TT is less likely holding for him. Good play by him.

In both hands my stats were 29/25/15, after about 200 hands.

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 204.2 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 120 BB
UTG: 120 BB
MP: 120 BB
Hero (CO): 185.9 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, SB raises to 9.4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 20.8 BB, SB calls 11.4 BB

Flop: (42.6 BB, 2 players) 2 T K
SB checks, Hero bets 19.8 BB, SB calls 19.8 BB

Turn: (82.2 BB, 2 players) 6
SB checks, Hero bets 73.4 BB, SB calls 59.4 BB and is all-in


SB wins 191 BB


2) I reclaimed some losses in this hand before taking a break to go to the gym

Yatahay Network - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 261.9 BB
Hero (BB): 120 BB
UTG: 119 BB
MP: 134.5 BB
CO: 75.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 3 players) 6 2 5
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB, fold

Turn: (16 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, CO bets 8 BB, Hero raises to 19 BB, CO calls 11 BB

River: (54 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 54 BB, CO calls 49.9 BB and is all-in





Total so far:

To win the challenge, I should only need to maintain about 15BB/100 for last 7,000 hands due to strong start. here is summary of major stats.

That's a super tall order, 15bb over 7k. If you achieve it, more power to you. Interested in this, purely just to see if you can pull it off.

My confidence in my decision to play poker seriously is growing somewhat, as I am nearly halfway done and still above 33BB/100.

Have always been in love with playing tournaments - but realized I was losing EV in later stages of tourneys because of not truly dedicating my focus for 6 hours straight in all of them. Thankfully, this challenge is making me realize that I can enjoy cash games as well.

Since I have never played cash seriously, I am using this opportunity to overanalyze every major hand I get into, and make sure I am properly adjusting my playstyle I am used to from playing tournaments so much. I have not quite been able to put in the full 10K hands yet due to spending lots of time setting up PokerTracker custom HUD stats, reviewing my game, and other real life stuff.

In reviewing my stats, LeakTracker has river aggression outside normal range (too high), and flop c-bet outside normal range (too low). I know not to be too invested in stats, and just make the play that your knowledge says is "winning". so I will continue to do that.

Slow and steady wins the race

studying the game is my priority now - as I don't want to develop any bad habits that turn into leaks down the road. So its 300 hands per day for now, then 3 hours study and analyzing those hands and bouncing idea around the forums. Soon enough you guys will see me let loose with playing 2k hands per day for an undecided February challenge.

where are you playing? you're on an absolute mad one if you can see this out