$100.000 profit at 20nl - Page 8 - Poker Blogs and Goals -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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01-22-2020 , 07:43 AM

#176

RyanWCollins

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 240

Quote:

Originally Posted by meale

(again because winrate is higher and that's the biggest factor in variance).

Why would a 10bb/100 winner experience higher variance than a 20bb/100 assuming same std dev. at least be correct if u gonna be picky m8

Quote

01-22-2020 , 09:27 AM

#177

meale

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 9,768

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyanWCollins

Why would a 10bb/100 winner experience higher variance than a 20bb/100 assuming same std dev. at least be correct if u gonna be picky m8

Obviously when I say it's the biggest factor in variance, I mean in reducing it...

Quote

01-22-2020 , 09:13 PM

#178

Ondra

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 20

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyanWCollins

Why would a 10bb/100 winner experience higher variance than a 20bb/100 assuming same std dev. at least be correct if u gonna be picky m8

You can google 'poker varianca calculator' and play with it a little bit to see what's the effect of variance with different win rates.

For example: after 10k hands the probability of loss with a true wr of 10bb/100 is 15.86% but if you have a true wr of 20bb/100 that number goes down to 2.27%

Quote

01-22-2020 , 10:06 PM

#179

AnjaFoXie

banned

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 117

Zkesic I'm considering buying MTG cards to make filters for my joints. Is it +EV?

Oh yeah forgot to mention I'm buying them online from a Brazil store to prevent Rapid from making a good deck. It it +EV?

PS: hahahaha mtg nerd hahahahaha ^_^

Quote

01-22-2020 , 11:00 PM

#180

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

Technically, the variance is the same whether you're making 20bb/100 or 0bb/100. The risk of ruin, however, is obviously higher when your win rate is lower.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnjaFoXie

Zkesic I'm considering buying MTG cards to make filters for my joints. Is it +EV?

^It's very +EV.
I always felt that cards from the Throne of Eldraine boosters smelled exactly like weed. No one else ever agreed with me, though.

You should try it out.

Quote

01-23-2020 , 12:36 AM

#181

excaxante

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 784

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnjaFoXie

With those tats and MTG cards it's definitely +EV if you want to continue a virgin.

Quote

01-23-2020 , 09:21 AM

#182

AnjaFoXie

banned

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 117

Oh another random nonfactor 5nl rec-grinder loser commenting on my tatts. Poor Finland. *shoots himself*

Quote

01-23-2020 , 09:23 AM

#183

AnjaFoXie

banned

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 117

200z regs calling me ugly/crackhead/fish makes me laugh but I respect them so I it doesn't bother me

But when a 15th time in a row rec-grinder @ 5nl (ur brit too? missing a few teeth, ugly child?) insults me, man it's just so ****ing sad. Play your game and you shouldn't mind how I dress/tattoo

Quote

01-31-2020 , 01:00 PM

#184

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

January 2020:

I didn't play any poker this month, since I've been studying and looking for a site to play on. I passed my last exam yesterday.

This is where we're at:

I plan to play at least 100k hands in February.

Quote

02-29-2020 , 10:00 PM

#185

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

February 2020:

Bankroll is at 28.1k

Some hands:

H1: vs an agro reg

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Hero (SB): $8.26 (41.3 bb)
BB: $21.03 (105.2 bb)
CO: $22.57 (112.9 bb)
BTN: $20 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.20) Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.59, Hero raises to $1.18, BB calls $0.59

Turn: ($3.56) A

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

River: ($5.96) 2

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $18.06, Hero calls $5.28 and is all-in

Spoiler:

H2: Flop thin value 4bet

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $20 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $12 (60 bb)
CO: $39.42 (197.1 bb)
BTN: $7.90 (39.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

2 folds, SB raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1) 9

(2 players)
SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.80, SB raises to $2.04, Hero raises to $3.28, SB folds

Spoiler:

H3: Bluffing vs a fish

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $21.88 (109.4 bb)
BB: $23.85 (119.3 bb)
CO: $45.27 (226.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $11.24 (56.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9

CO raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1.30, CO folds

Flop: ($3.60) 2

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.03, BB calls $1.03

Turn: ($5.66) T

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($5.66) T

(2 players)
BB bets $2.83, Hero raises to $8.71, BB folds

Spoiler:

H4: A turn float

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

SB: $24.85 (124.3 bb)
BB: $23.58 (117.9 bb)
MP: $20.42 (102.1 bb)
CO: $49.87 (249.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10.61 (53.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K

MP folds, CO raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.30) 9

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.30) J

(2 players)
CO bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

River: ($2.60) J

(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.60, CO folds

Spoiler:

H5: Pretty random

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Hero (SB): $8.30 (41.5 bb)
BB: $20 (100 bb)
CO: $40.50 (202.5 bb)
BTN: $8.55 (42.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.20) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($1.20) 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.81, BB calls $0.81

River: ($2.82) K

(2 players)
Hero bets $6.89, BB folds

Spoiler:

Quote

03-01-2020 , 12:43 AM

#186

colddeathzz

stranger

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 3

keep up the good work man, just wondering what your current hourly win is ?, is it still at about 25-30$/hour ?

Quote

03-01-2020 , 01:07 AM

#187

Parsons Grinder

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 2,371

Your graphs are insane, loving the thread.

Quote

03-01-2020 , 08:00 PM

#188

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

Quote:

Originally Posted by colddeathzz

keep up the good work man, just wondering what your current hourly win is ?, is it still at about 25-30$/hour ?

It was around $35/hr this month. I ran really good the last day, though.

Btw, this just happened vs a reg that cbets flop 86%:

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Hero (SB): $8.04 (40.2 bb)
BB: $46.08 (230.4 bb)
CO: $36.18 (180.9 bb)
BTN: $12.19 (61 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8

CO raises to $0.60, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.50, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.80) 3

(3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $1, Hero calls $1, BB folds

Turn: ($3.80) 5

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($3.80) 9

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.66, Hero raises to $6.44, CO calls $3.78

Spoiler:

He's overfolding that river so hard

Glad I wasn't deeper. I might jam AI there even 80bb+ deep.

Last edited by ZKesic; 03-01-2020 at 08:05 PM.

Quote

03-07-2020 , 06:55 AM

#189

BenaBadBeat

5 or a 9... 5 or a 9...

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 4,746

street poker <3

Quote

03-07-2020 , 09:45 AM

#190

cocacola2

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 108

I want to ask your biggest downswing. It looks to be in your graph around $300?

15 buy ins?

Quote

03-07-2020 , 06:46 PM

#191

CrunchyBlack

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 7,467

Real sicko ****, I love it

Quote

03-15-2020 , 05:00 PM

#192

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

This is my 3bet range BB vs BTN. You guys notice anything?

Spoiler:

If anyone wants to join a PokerStars home game club and play vs a bunch of Slovenian fish, PM me. You also get a flat 50% RB.
We're playing mainly 20 NLH and PLO right now, but will probably also open higher stakes soon.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cocacola2

I want to ask your biggest downswing. It looks to be in your graph around $300?

15 buy ins?

It's probably around 10 buy ins I think. I'll start playing a higher variance style now, so I might have some bigger ones.

Quote

03-15-2020 , 05:36 PM

#193

FazendeiroBH

self-banned

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,514

Yeah, considering there’s a bigger concentration of Ax than 9x on BTN opening range, you should have been dealt 99 more often than AA on spots when you face an open from that position.

Obv there are other factors, like lots of 9x also being on the folding range of the earlier positions. The more players (9-max for example) the bigger is the mitigating effect. So the effect of the first paragraph exists but should be relatively small.

Last edited by FazendeiroBH; 03-15-2020 at 05:43 PM.

Quote

03-17-2020 , 06:36 AM

#194

giegling

centurion

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 131

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZKesic

I thought ps is banned in Slovenia?

Quote

03-17-2020 , 09:00 AM

#195

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

^ We play for Play Money and then send eachother money via Skrill or whatever.

We have a special software that constantly monitors everything that happens at these tables and calculates all players' winnings + RB. We've been doing this since 2015 and there were never any problems.

The games are really soft (everyone's a fish pretty much) and everyone is welcome to join. There are still few spots open.

Quote

03-21-2020 , 03:19 AM

#196

daveum

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 5

how do I join?

Quote

03-21-2020 , 06:00 PM

#197

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

I sent you a PM.

Quote

03-30-2020 , 11:00 PM

#198

ZKesic

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,117

March 2020:

Bankroll is at 29.5k

Played 100bb deep in the second half of the month. It seems to be more profitable. Unfortunately ran more than $300 under EV, though.

Some hands:

H1: Bluff

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $19.35 (96.8 bb)
BB: $20.61 (103.1 bb)
CO: $25.87 (129.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $8.32 (41.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J

CO folds, Hero calls $0.20, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.50) A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.25, BB calls $0.25

Turn: ($1) 7

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

River: ($3) 4

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.87 and is all-in, BB calls $6.87

Spoiler:

H2: Value

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $21.99 (110 bb)
BB: $49.79 (249 bb)
CO: $21.26 (106.3 bb)
Hero (BTN): $7.60 (38 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 5

CO folds, Hero calls $0.20, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.50) 7

(2 players)
BB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($1) Q

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

River: ($2.40) 3

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.45 and is all-in, BB calls $6.45

Spoiler:

H3: Standard? Do you guys have a min 5b range here?

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

Hero (SB): $40.42 (202.1 bb)
BB: $19.71 (98.6 bb)
CO: $8.03 (40.2 bb)
BTN: $21.72 (108.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6

CO folds, BTN raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $2, BB folds, BTN raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $40.42 and is all-in, BTN folds

Spoiler:

H4:

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $37.43 (187.2 bb)
BB: $20.40 (102 bb)
Hero (CO): $9.92 (49.6 bb)
BTN: $20.40 (102 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

Hero raises to $0.60, BTN folds, SB calls $0.50, BB folds

Flop: ($1.40) 2

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.40) 7

(2 players)
SB bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

River: ($4.20) 6

(2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

Spoiler:

H5:

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

SB: $6.21 (31.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $8.50 (42.5 bb)
CO: $27.12 (135.6 bb)
BTN: $28.21 (141.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

CO folds, BTN raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.50) 9

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($1.50) 5

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.05, BTN calls $1.05, SB calls $1.05

River: ($4.65) 3

(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.95 and is all-in, 2 folds

Spoiler:

Feel free to comment on any of the hands.

PS.: Don't bluff fish
https://www.boomplayer.com/32712776_DCABA27AFD

Quote

03-31-2020 , 08:43 AM

#199

FazendeiroBH

self-banned

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,514

Yeah, maybe you posted your reasonings for playing shorter and I missed, but with your lifetime wr and so, unless it was a promo rb deal or smth to that line and you needed to autopilot to get the volume going, can´t really understand. Glad you came back to 100bb poker