It's a bit over 6bb/100 before RB.

Graph:



We're over 1 mil hands and 20k profit already!
A nice milestone.

Obviously a waste of talent. I understand that some people like to settle and that's super ok

But you would be one of those top players that associated with high tier players you would be easily one of them.

Anyways ... nice thread

6bb is really good but it shouldn't guarantee low variance in itself. What do you think it is that keeps your downswings small and rare?

there are multiple players on russian ptr with 10bb/100 winrate on nl25 while breaking even at slightly higher stakes, a 6bb winrate doesnt even guarantee a positive winrate for tougher games.

Well, think about it, what do you do in a downswing? Play the same way and amount? I personally do not. I do not believe variance is a mathematical certainty. I believe there is an element of luck on the flop and turn, which folks like to call variance. Think what you would do in a live game if all you did was lose hand after hand (been there, done that, starting hand TT and above). There are certain changes and moves you can make to reduce or eliminate. Just my opinion.

what are you talking about?

How could your hourly be lower if you made 5bb/100 at 100nl?

Less tables, no zoom, no games during off-peak etc. Idk the real reasons, but it´s not impossible considering he plays on a small site.

fair enough

I believe that it's partially because of my very constant win rate. People have disagreed with me about this in the past, but I believe that win rate and std dev aren't everything when it comes to variance:

A lot of people that make 3bb/100 after 1mil hands, for example, assume that this was their "true" win rate for every hand in that sample. However, in reality, there might have been periods of time when the games were super soft + they were playing their A game and were actually making ~8bb/100, while in other periods of time the pool changed + the regs started exploiting the guy + he tilted and his true EV was actually -3bb/100. He just considered that a "downswing" though.

I have never tilted in my life though. Never even felt the emotion. It must be because I don't truly enjoy the game and don't play it for fun. I play to make money. When I hit a downswing I make sure to reduce the number of tables I'm playing and focus on finding out how exactly I can optimally counter the opponents. Sometimes fish even accidentally use a strategy that happens to exploit you.

I also use a pretty passive strategy (a lot of limping and checking flops) at different stack depths, which probably reduces my variance too.

I think that my pool is tougher than 50nl cash actually, since these are the highest zoom stakes on the site and there are many good regs stuck here for the same reason as me. There's also no game selection.

If I played only 800 hands/hr, my win rate would obviously be quite a bit higher than it is. Though, what matters at the end of the day to me is the $/hr. I'd be surprised if you can find anyone that has a higher hourly than me at 20nl/25nl.

It would be hard to play more than 500 hands/hr at 100nl. At 5bb/100, that would be around $25 per hour, which is still less than what I'm making now.

Lool wtf is your hourly !?

July 2019:



Bankroll is at 22k



I also spent 55 hours working and went to the gym 2 times/week. Overall a pretty productive month.

Some fun hands:

H1:


H2: How do you guys play this spot?

I think that going for 3 barells as a bluff might be best otf. Regs might be too capped when they x/c flop and it's good that we aren't blocking K/Q. 8 is also a pretty safe out usually.
Do you value jam the river as played? I think we might get called by AK/AQ sometimes and the opponent may fold some 2 pair hands.

H3: Got owned pretty hard, hah.

I thought that he'd go bigger ott with KJ. That's pretty much the only Kx he's repping imo.

H4:


The way that I played it is pretty standard I think. But I've been thinking if check-raising the flop, check-jamming the turn or donk jamming the river would be better. And when?
My blockers seem pretty bad for check-calling the river.

H5:


H6: That's what he gets for slowplaying AK, hah

H2: I do not usually call 3bet with T8s. You lucked out there, but over the course here, that will be a losing strategy against AQ.

H3: Had several similar hands happen to me. You could consider folding on turn or river, if it repeats often enough, could be a leak. its hard to tell when villain has the KJ in pocket.

H4: Since villain had a straight, a value bet on river would produce a call. With a jam, sets and better are probably going to call. Value bet, TPTK and two pairs will probably call. Your choice here. On the turn or the flop, I would have done a bit of check raise. BECAUSE, villains tend to let you take over the betting, and if they get their draw (since you raised, you must not be on draw), they will call your shove. Just my experience in these limits on Zone.

H5: I've done a bit of that myself (stating to self, either you have it or don't)

Why you dont go fully time poker player?

How many tables do u play zoom ?
gl gl

what a beast

August 2019:



Bankroll is at 22.5k

Had birthday this month

Only played poker for the 1st week. Then went on a 7 day vacation to Croatia and worked for 8-10 hours/day till the end of the month.

I spent more than 4000€ this month:


He can't really have it there, can he?

I'll go full time now. I expect to make 2k+ in september (have another vacation) and 3k+/month in october and november.

8-10 usually. 10 is the limit:



I've only marked 2 hands for review this month:

H1:


H2:

Why you don't move to NL50? You know you would have lower hourly there?

I think he said somewhere that volume is really bad above nl20 and he can´t play on other sites (or only stars idk) from his country.

Can you play that many tables on stars?

No, as far as I know the limit even for zoom is 4 tables. But I think you can add diferent limits to bypass that, so 4x 10nl + 4x 5nl etc. Not sure if it still works with the recent changes tho.

How long does it last? How cold does it get where you live?

Wp on the month!

Optimal win rates

Exactly one year ago I made a goal for myself - to have a better win rate in every single area than the top 20 regs in my pool.
It's obviously a pretty ambitious goal that might not even be reachable, but chasing this goal seems like a good way to constantly improve in all areas of poker.

In December 2018 I compared my win rates to those of the top 20 regs for the first time. I looked at the 52 areas that I deemed most important and found out that my win rate was better than theirs in 34 of the 52 areas.
This gave me a score of 65%, which I was happy with.

After that I started focusing on improving in the "red" areas, in which I had sub optimal win rates.

This month (September 2019) I made another comparison, to see if I've improved in the last year.

The results were these: (I've decided to only reveal my win rates for the spots in which I'm leaking)


This time my win rate was better in 53/68 areas, which gives me the score of 78%. I'm quite happy with it. I'll probably repeat this in around a year.

For now, my main leaks seem to be in the BB vs BTN/CO spots, when I call preflop. That's expected since I'm sometimes playing sub optimally (too passively) postflop there due to the amount of tables.
Another leak seems to be in the limped pots, which I'll look more into later.

Pretty much this.

I expect it to last untill January or so.
It depends on how many people there are living in the house. If I'm alone, the heating oil costs around 2,5k/year. For 4 people, it's more like ~4k/year. The house is pretty big though.
Temperatures get down to -10°C in the winter.




Sorry for the late replies

cool, where are you getting the data from?

This.

You mean the data from the top 20 regs?

I consider the "top 20 regs", the 20 players that I have the biggest sample on. They are all decent regs and I have pretty big samples on them due to the small player pool.
On the Number 1 reg I have 73k+ hands. On all of them combined I have 1mil+ hands. This is what I use for the comparison.

I know that this isn't 100% accurate, but it should be enough to give me something to compare my own results to.

I was considering datamining in the past, but that doesn't seem to be possible at the fast tables.