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Old 08-26-2012, 05:51 PM   #2851
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

You and a lot of other regs always refer to your red line ,for the obvious reason.But i'm pretty sure that the EV line for ALL hypers is way of .

I looked into this because I back players and they send me HEM stats etc.So lets say someone who is down say 100k might have a break even red line ,but really that red line should be at least 20-30% worst of

Any thoughts on this ,I have confirmed the above with one of the tech guys at holdem manager

Last edited by demetri1978; 08-26-2012 at 05:56 PM.
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Old 08-26-2012, 05:59 PM   #2852
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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Originally Posted by demetri1978 View Post
You and a lot of other regs always refer to your red line ,for the obvious reason.But i'm pretty sure that the EV line for ALL hypers is way of .

I looked into this because I back players and they send me HEM stats etc.So lets say someone who is down say 100k might have a break even red line ,but really that red line should be at least 20-30% worst of

Any thoughts on this ,I have confirmed the above with one of the tech guys at holdem manager
i see that you edited for clarity, but you didn't quite get there with it huh?
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:03 PM   #2853
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

As far as I have always understood, the HEM redline is accurate in the long run. Obviously, card distribution is a huge portion of the how the hyper redline looks in the short term, but in the long run it will even out.
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:11 PM   #2854
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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Originally Posted by demetri1978 View Post
You and a lot of other regs always refer to your red line ,for the obvious reason.But i'm pretty sure that the EV line for ALL hypers is way of .

I looked into this because I back players and they send me HEM stats etc.So lets say someone who is down say 100k might have a break even red line ,but really that red line should be at least 20-30% worst of

Any thoughts on this ,I have confirmed the above with one of the tech guys at holdem manager
If someone has a breakeven red line while he is down then his actual red line is a little above. Because when he runs good the red line is going up
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:12 PM   #2855
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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Originally Posted by jdawg91 View Post
As far as I have always understood, the HEM redline is accurate in the long run. Obviously, card distribution is a huge portion of the how the hyper redline looks in the short term, but in the long run it will even out.
Hit me up on skype ,i will give you his skype info.He is one of the main tech guys at HEM and does all my cpu/HEM issues and he can confirm it is all wrong.

Long and short term

How wrong is a different question,but he did say up to 30%
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:15 PM   #2856
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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Originally Posted by grindtolive View Post
If someone has a breakeven red line while he is down then his actual red line is a little above. Because when he runs good the red line is going up
Not necessarily true, you could be running very very well in CD but running ridic bad....your post is what a lot of people think and it probably is true in most cases, but definitely not in every situation

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Originally Posted by demetri1978 View Post
Hit me up on skype ,i will give you his skype info.He is one of the main tech guys at HEM and does all my cpu/HEM issues and he can confirm it is all wrong.

Long and short term

How wrong is a different question,but he did say up to 30%
Will message you now
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:19 PM   #2857
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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i see that you edited for clarity, but you didn't quite get there with it huh?
Pretty clear what i am saying imo.I thought some here may be interested as the subject EV line comes up a lot itt

The info is not just for op obviously,there are many other hyper players that post itt
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:19 PM   #2858
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

HEM redline is rigged!

no money in hypers,
everyone solid redline

Last edited by Max Cut; 08-26-2012 at 06:20 PM. Reason: lolwut
 
Old 08-26-2012, 06:55 PM   #2859
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

demetri1978, can you be more specific about the nature of the supposed error?

Quote:
So lets say someone who is down say 100k might have a break even red line ,but really that red line should be at least 20-30% worst of
Do you mean the red line will always be 20-30% higher than it should in this case? Are you talking about a sample size that is significant? (100k is meaningless without knowing the number of games and the buy-in). I just can't quite put the pieces together to understand.

I'm not an expert on the HEM red line, so would be interested to hear more.









GL Jdawggggg.... you sickest of all sick mofos!



2 mil?


really? reallyyyyy? who lives like that?
 
Old 08-26-2012, 07:10 PM   #2860
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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demetri1978, can you be more specific about the nature of the supposed error?



Do you mean the red line will always be 20-30% higher than it should in this case? Are you talking about a sample size that is significant? (100k is meaningless without knowing the number of games and the buy-in). I just can't quite put the pieces together to understand.

I'm not an expert on the HEM red line, so would be interested to hear more.









GL Jdawggggg.... you sickest of all sick mofos!



2 mil?


really? reallyyyyy? who lives like that?

Well i'm an old guy and probably slightly punch drunk so asking me to be specific on a technical issue is not a good idea.

He has explained it in full to me ,obviously I didn't get it.But when I asked him to sum it up it kinda sounded like it is just wrong in general.Which means it is wrong for all buy ins and all samples.So for one game it will read wrong and for a million games it will read wrong.

Maybe he is wrong lol,but he does work for HEM and every time I pay him to do my HEM/CPU he seems to get it fixed asap
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:21 PM   #2861
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Is it due to a bug specific to PokerStars hypers, or is he saying it's wrong for all hypers/supers in general? For STTs in general? I would personally need more specifics to put much faith in the claim in general.
 
Old 08-26-2012, 07:28 PM   #2862
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdawg91 View Post
As far as I have always understood, the HEM redline is accurate in the long run. Obviously, card distribution is a huge portion of the how the hyper redline looks in the short term, but in the long run it will even out.
Isn't the assumption that card distribution will even out in the long run the same kind of assumption that your redline will equal your greenline in the long run and isn't that argument flawed because both CD as greenline variance have no memory?

Also, obv demetri is angling to demotivate jdawg!1!1!
(jk obv )

And shouldn't the redline be flawed in the same way as SNG Wizz is flawed in its calculations, and needs manual work for real calculation?
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:03 PM   #2863
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Hey JDawg,

You still table selecting? It seems like you're just registering for all of them. Do you think you (and the other 5 regs) are long term losers when there are 6 regs, or do you think your skillz compensate and that you're a long-term winner? Here's a shot I took of the first 3 tables I opened up:

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Old 08-26-2012, 08:06 PM   #2864
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

^ Heh yea just sent this to my backer, gotta talk it over with him. If I'm going for 2mil, I can't bother to game select, whoever is the 6th in every lobby is ******ed, im the first in every one. But ya, 2mil won't happen if I have to game select 200s, just not enough time in the day etc. Gotta talk it over with the backer and see if I wanna just go for it or drop down to 60-100s (200s offpeak) and just get 1mil

[4:59:38 PM] Joshua Hoesel (jdawg91): okay, so primetime $200s are ridiculously tough. i think like 30 out of 35 games at one point were 6 reg games
[4:59:46 PM] Joshua Hoesel (jdawg91): no way thats profitable for us
[5:00:03 PM] Joshua Hoesel (jdawg91): and today is sunday, the games should be softer if anything
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:06 PM   #2865
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by demetri1978 View Post
He has explained it in full to me ,obviously I didn't get it.But when I asked him to sum it up it kinda sounded like it is just wrong in general.Which means it is wrong for all buy ins and all samples.So for one game it will read wrong and for a million games it will read wrong.
I'm very interested, but I think you need a lot more clarification.

The methodology is quite simple. I don't see how it would be accurate for all the other STT formats but not these specific hypers, unless it is a blatant error on HEM's part.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:23 PM   #2866
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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Originally Posted by jdawg91 View Post
^ Heh yea just sent this to my backer, gotta talk it over with him. If I'm going for 2mil, I can't bother to game select, whoever is the 6th in every lobby is ******ed, im the first in every one. But ya, 2mil won't happen if I have to game select 200s, just not enough time in the day etc. Gotta talk it over with the backer and see if I wanna just go for it or drop down to 60-100s (200s offpeak) and just get 1mil
This logic may be a bit flawed. When there are 6 regs, I think everyone is a responsible.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:08 PM   #2867
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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Originally Posted by jdawg91 View Post
^ Heh yea just sent this to my backer, gotta talk it over with him. If I'm going for 2mil, I can't bother to game select, whoever is the 6th in every lobby is ******ed, im the first in every one. But ya, 2mil won't happen if I have to game select 200s, just not enough time in the day etc. Gotta talk it over with the backer and see if I wanna just go for it or drop down to 60-100s (200s offpeak) and just get 1mil

[4:59:38 PM] Joshua Hoesel (jdawg91): okay, so primetime $200s are ridiculously tough. i think like 30 out of 35 games at one point were 6 reg games
[4:59:46 PM] Joshua Hoesel (jdawg91): no way thats profitable for us
[5:00:03 PM] Joshua Hoesel (jdawg91): and today is sunday, the games should be softer if anything
See if you can maintain pace doing this for a week or so, if you can let your backer book lots of prop action to compensate for -EV games and print heaps!

But seriously. I think it's a good idea. Also been a while since we've talked but good to see you're still a sicko, glgl!
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:31 PM   #2868
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Sounds like there's at least 5 other people going for 2 million

HEM1 has been buggy as **** since the hyper additions changes. You can get wildly different redline readings depending on which recent version/patch you're running, and who knows if any of them are truly correct.

Hopefully they get it straightened out once and for all, seems pretty simple to do (says one non-programmer who doesn't have to code the fix) .
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Old 08-26-2012, 11:11 PM   #2869
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Ha yea +1 to everything you said Gramps. Fwiw, I think if you have the latest version of HEM and then reimport all HH's, you usually have the most accurate representation possible as each release has fixes in it, or tracks correctly for new bi's etc etc...I am running the newest version as I had to deal with the Merge HEM BS this past month.

I'm actually going to be the one out of all the regs to bow out of the race after 1 day....didn't think that literally 60% of my $200s that would pop during primetime would have 6 regs in them. I'd much rather look like an idiot in my pg&c thread for announcing id go for 2mil and then snap pussying out, and actually keep my sanity and pre RB WR.



__________________________________________________

Anyway, hit 30k vpps for the weekend and snap shut it down (30,312.53 to be exact), im going to bed at 8pm as im tired as ****, will wake up and start grinding 60s-100s whenever tomorrow...not setting an alarm. Might push really hard tomorrow and try to hit my 400k milestone before quitting but my goal coming into this 1mil challenge was to be at 400k by the end of the month, so I'm super happy that I'm ahead of my personal pace by a decent bit already .

VPP Count: 389,663.49


Day:







Overall with 43% RB (300k tier): Actual +3289.03, EV +$4406.89






Very happy with my EV Roi's at $60s and $100s, would be super sick to keep a >1% pre RB ROI at them

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Old 08-26-2012, 11:36 PM   #2870
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg View Post
Isn't the assumption that card distribution will even out in the long run the same kind of assumption that your redline will equal your greenline in the long run and isn't that argument flawed because both CD as greenline variance have no memory?
card distribution having no memory does not mean that the lines should not approach each other over a large sample.

if i flip a coin 5 times in a row and get tails 4 times and heads once, my "redline" should still approach my greenline in the long run because the next 100k times I flip the coin, it is expected to be heads 50% and tails 50%. There is no "regression to the mean" where I run hotter after running cold, but the numbers simply average out to what we would expect over large samples.
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Old 08-27-2012, 01:11 AM   #2871
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

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Originally Posted by Picasso View Post
card distribution having no memory does not mean that the lines should not approach each other over a large sample.

if i flip a coin 5 times in a row and get tails 4 times and heads once, my "redline" should still approach my greenline in the long run because the next 100k times I flip the coin, it is expected to be heads 50% and tails 50%. There is no "regression to the mean" where I run hotter after running cold, but the numbers simply average out to what we would expect over large samples.
the art of posting, by picasso
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Old 08-27-2012, 01:17 AM   #2872
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Why wouldn't you take my action on 2 mill sighhhh slk;fajds;flkjsalkjf such a beat.

Def a good decision for you 100%, you just weren't going to have a good result if you went for 2 mill even if you hit it imo.
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Old 08-27-2012, 01:44 AM   #2873
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Hehe , but yea agree, didnt really realize the games were gonna be that tough either.

____________________________________________

Selling action to some nlhe events for WCOOP, promise im not cancelling this time!
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16.../#post34505924

Think I'm off to bed right now, although I somehow got a 2nd wind after being fairly withered, might play more...not really sure right now
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Old 08-27-2012, 02:34 AM   #2874
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Re: 10,000th Post: SNE 2012, Jdawg91 Style (+ more!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdawg91 View Post
Hehe , but yea agree, didnt really realize the games were gonna be that tough either.

____________________________________________

Selling action to some nlhe events for WCOOP, promise im not cancelling this time!
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16.../#post34505924

Think I'm off to bed right now, although I somehow got a 2nd wind after being fairly withered, might play more...not really sure right now
you think they're tough now, wait till October/November.
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Old 08-27-2012, 04:08 AM   #2875
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Anyway, hit 30k vpps for the weekend and snap shut it down (30,312.53 to be exact),
Sigh, so no food on the table for me this week :-(
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