gg sir, very epic

I rarely ever watch football these days, what a treat this weekend was! Need to do this more often

Three of the four games were decided by game winning field goals as time expired. The last game decided in overtime.

Thanks for the great + thought-provoking post, mr. rickroll.

If it was easy, everybody would do it amirite

Right.

Arbitrage opportunities exist as well in the above scenario.

I assume this discrepancy is mostly prevalent in opening lines? Especially in non-major sports? Have to imagine the market corrects itself rather quickly for stuff like NBA.


Got it. I take it that it’s an uphill battle manufacturing EV out of thin air vs the juice as well with unsophisticated tricks like that.

Assuming the relevant AI out there is sophisticated enough to tune users into these nuances as well.


Big on dealing with friends/acquaintances whenever possible but I do appreciate you sharing.


Awesome! I subbed to all of them. Great stuff, sir; it makes me very happy that I can use this thread as a vessel to get educated on everything I’m interested in and continually motivates me to dedicate as much as I can to it.

I know this is a joke, but personally, to take you through where my head is at, I think it's a bad idea to spend winnings from -EV, neutral EV, marginal EV spots of any variety.

I don't really understand the concept of house money in spots where the EV generated is minimal as one didn't actually make anything.

For example, let's say someone has a 5% ROI (seem reasonable?), is betting for profit, put down 1k on xyz spread, and won. Well, they generate $50 in EV in a vacuum.

If I were to bink an investment, tournament, etc., I would only want to spend a portion of the EV I believe I manufactured. For example, if I invested 2k in stock and it mooned to 100k- I wouldn't feel comfortable spending more than a couple hundred as the money I won isn't mine.

It's a bit different with actual poker winnings for apparent reasons. However, in spots where we're manufacturing minimal EV, it feels like a fool's errand to me to expend beyond the principle.

Those games were insane today lol. I'm rooting for your rams to win it. Kupp deserves a super bowl after the nonstop beasting he's done this year. And would love to see Stafford get to have some success after sticking it out with the dysfunctional Lions for so long.

yeah, and for reference i'm in that <1% profitable dfs people (i am top guy at yahoo in soccer and nhl) and yet trying to apply my dfs stuff to betting games not player results has been pretty neutral in results and i'm actually a net loser in that thread

yes, arbitrage is very tricky outside of pph types of books because it's either a razor thin margin or it's a bad line - at a regulated book if you bet a bad line it is legally binding - but if say some employee at pinnacle entered the wrong opening line and it was KC +2.5 instead of -2.5 and you bet that then they'd leave it until after the game - at which point they freeroll you and if KC loses by 10 they count it as a valid bet but if KC loses by 1 and you win or outright wins they cancel it and refund the principal stating it was a bad line - i don't think they post bad lines intentionally, but if you see something drastically off at an offshore site then proceed with caution

yes, opening lines are generally the softest as they've had the least input - the closer to kickoff you place the bet the more accurate the line will be and more likely you'll lose out to vig in the long run

and yeah, you'd be incredibly hard pressed to find easy lines for stuff like nba, as a general rule of thumb, the higher the vig the more unsure the book is and that'll lead to books having fairly different lines - stuff like nba and nfl will be very precise with uniformity and low vig whereas chess, esports, snooker, pitcher strikeout totals, etc will be a bit softer

mind you, i'm a total noob, just lurking in those threads and regurgitating what anonymous strangers online are claiming but apparently if you chase steam quickly enough it can be profitable and steam chaser is a bit of perjorative in the community because it denotes someone who only gets his ev via sloppy seconds of tailing genuine cappers

word, there's very little action on them these days but when you have some time i'd take a look, i think the poogs/like well would be the best place to start because that's simply about finding stale lines

yeah i never understood the players who would go and "indulge themselves" after a good session instead of just adding it to your roll for more bullets and/or moving up

and while it's something i've never been interested in partaking in (easy to say now as i'm tall with relative youth - maybe my interest will spike as i age) but certaintly enough people do to the point that the casinos are typically surrounded by them

For sure. All four of the games this weekend were amazing!

An unhealthy mix of recency bias incoming, but have to imagine Chiefs-Bills up there with the greatest games in NFL or at least postseason history?

NFL postseason games are wild, every call/play/yard/inch can be so critical, so many legacies impacted, great stuff

The elimination style of NFL makes for a super thrilling postseason viewing experience, which is cool.


Yeah. Triple crown by Kupp is an amazing accomplishment and well said about Stafford.

So much variance, super hard to get this far. Hopefully the rams can capitalize next week.

Will be insane to have home field in the super bowl but one game at a time I suppose

Tough matchup next week. Niners 2-0 vs the rams this year and 6-0 in the past three years.

Productive Poker Hours Week 3 of 2022: 72

Tata Steel Chess 2022 Round 8 Commentary:


I personally prefer the first commentary linked as it features the highest level analysis (by far), but for those that are interested and want something more casual to skim through I'll link a few more.

Tata Steel Chess 2022 Round 8 Recap


Coverage





Esipenko-Giri Round 8 Analysis




Mamedyarov-Praggnanandhaa Round 8 Analysis

^

The above hand was against a splashy whale who I think we have a reasonably straightforward call versus but for those who are interested in what's happening in optimal here's a sim for study purposes.


Hero's flop strat in optimal




V's response




OOP's EV on various turn cards




Hero's turn strat in optimal



V's response versus turn check in optimal



Hero's response versus turn stab in optimal




OOP's EV on various river cards




Hero's river strat in optimal




V's response




Hero's response vs jam

Have a serious question for those of you who are fortunate enough to be heavily invested and have an asset allocation highly weighted towards crypto and more specifically btc/eth.

Here's where my head is at re investing. This is a post I made in January of last year when 200 was my biggest stake (not a brag, just painting a picture financially).
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...&postcount=886


My thoughts are similar today.

I have the ability to ape this time around if I wanted to and its quite tempting.

How much value do you think there is short/medium/long term at these levels (33K, 2.2k) and what are your general thoughts on the play?

I *believe* in a global financial crisis coming later this year. Reason: Elon Musk has mentioned this is a thing.

In response to post 2937, lines can move for a variety of different reasons such as sharp action, overall volume, other books moving their line, new information becoming available to the market (eg lineups) etc etc. Depending on the trading strategy a book is using a move could be for any of these reasons so it's pretty difficult to assume the side of the line sharp action is on.

When the event is further from kick the lines are likely less accurate so you can bet smaller amounts for higher ROI, whereas close to kick you should be able to bet a lot more $ but much lower ROI's are possible.

I'm not sure if this has been covered since then and I can't quote only part of posts on mobile so responding here.

no that wasn't covered, glad some people more knowledgeable than me are chiming in ty

This is of course just my personal opinion, but I think you should keep in line w/ your original thinking. Largely just DCA the big indexes w/ a small allocation to things like crypto. Perhaps on this draw down you may choose to be a little more aggressive so maybe buy a slightly larger portion at more frequent intervals.

I know this will sound like madness to some people who are like 120% into crypto. But I would keep it at 10% and split up the buys over the course of weeks or months. Full disclosure my personal allocation to crypto is .05%.

That said you are young and can afford a lot more risk than someone like me so I wouldn't fault you for going much more aggressively.

Also one indicator that I like to use to help identify a good entry point is the number of suicide help line posts I start to see floating around in the various investing/stock forums.

Ty for sharing your thoughts, sir.

I know people who don’t gamble for a living can be pretty hesitant to give financial advice, so I would like to point out that there’s no need to hesitate.


Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I value everyone’s insight and like to take the time to ponder over some of these things; it helps me retain information. I will circle back to both of your posts later, gentlemen.

I can appreciate the minimal toxicity and abundance of valuable info regardless of the topic in this thread!

Sporadic combo out of the threads I’m subscribed to these days. Thanks, everyone.




FYP


For sure, thank you for your insight Spyu. I’ll be sure to keep all of that in mind.

Not sure if this is solicited but I take a lot of crypto as a speculative bet on the future of the technology. If you think things like web 3.0, metaverse, and decentralized finance are going to gain a ton of marketshare and get huge in the coming years, being big into crypto makes sense. If you are more skeptical, having a small or even zero allocation towards crypto is probably the move.

I think the case for crypto boils down to whatever your evaluation is in terms of what comes next. As to whether or not these valuations are good entry points...certainly better than the entry points over the past 6 months, but make no mistake that crypto could still go down quite a ways from here. Nobody knows, really, and most of the recent moves crashed through multiple support levels from a TA perspective.

Crypto is still a very speculative asset class and will certainly be subject to massive swings in the years ahead.

Just my thoughts.

It's always difficult to invest in new things because the options are so vast and in the end 99% of the field is going to be a dud.

Knowing some sector is the future is just not enough.

Just like air travel and the internet the winners were pretty much impossible to predict.

I would take this opportunity to buy more of the proven winners.

Yeah I agree with this -- I would not recommend speculating on altcoins if you're just looking to dabble in crypto as a small fraction of a diversified portfolio. Whenever someone asks me I pretty much recommend they invest in eth (market leader in all the web 3, defi, metaverse type stuff that looks to not be going anywhere anytime soon).

I myself am more into the L1 eth alternatives in the top 20, but those are obviously more volatile, speculative, and risky.

Props to you for keeping all of this unbiased. This is the kind of advice I was looking for.

Some exciting tweets and funny charts would be fantastic, too, in any case.

I like this website: https://bitcoin-resources.com/


And the articles linked: https://bitcoin-resources.com/articles/


This one in particular: https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the...in-6ecc8bdecc1


Makes sense! I agree that understanding and believing in what you invest in is critical. Easier to stick to the plan when things are going south that way imo.

In my humble opinion defi>>>


If BTC/eth were to drop to 15k/1k~ respectively, for example, it wouldn't be the end of the world assuming I DCA over a long-term investment horizon.

It may even be a welcome opportunity to average down if I don't mind being over-allocated.

For sure.

Your thoughts are always welcome!

Well said!


For sure, the plethora of low/mid capitalization coins don't really appeal to me.

Mostly just BTC/ETH

ETH is far more attractive to me than BTC. I think a programmable money blockchain is super neat and ethereum does 2x more daily transactions than bitcoin and 10x more than paypal, as noted in the video.

I believe the settlement volume was upwards $30,000,000 (30 billion) per day at the time.

I like this video from the founder of Initialized Capital:





There were a few twitter threads that I really enjoyed reading. A+ researching, I know

Well said!


Would you mind expanding on what you're into and why? Genuinely interested

I think from a macro perspective eth makes a lot of sense, but there are other more technically advanced chains that have been (and could continue to) gain marketshare and perhaps overtake eth one day.

Chains like avalanche, solana, cosmos, matic (though that's particularly eth-related), cardano, etc. etc. in general work similarly to eth but with already working PoS mechanisms, much lower fees, higher theoretical throughput (and so...theoretical scalability, though in practice it's not always so simple), and so on.

I'm also relatively young (late 20s) and willing to gamble, so speculating on some smaller L1 eth competitors to me offers a pretty attractive risk-reward. Most of these coins are somewhere between like 3-10% the current size of ethereum. In a world where all the speculative tech stuff takes off, even if eth stays market leader imo some of these coins have potential to close the gap. If eth doubles, a coin like avalanche could 10x and still be roughly a quarter of the size of eth. I am (expecting? hoping?) a rising tide will lift all boats and we'll be in a world that's very good for eth but really great for some of the alternative L1 chains.

More or less I am happy to speculate on the L1 eth alternative gambles chasing upside.

For disclosure, I have positions in some but not all of the tokens I've listed - feel fine discussing the concept + sector but not in here trying to shill my own bags or something.

This is the way I lean as well. I think you can afford to be more aggressive but I still wouldn't go super insane with what % you keep in crypto. Many are way over invested and sure, maybe they get lucky and get super rich in this timeline of events. But personally I'd aim for success across all outcomes and I would absolutely consider rebalancing where possible if it grows to be too high a % of your net worth.

I played all day today/yesterday(?) and am noticeably more exhausted than usual for some reason. I think it's because of how swingy the entire day was and how many tilting things happened. I finished up in $ for whatever little that's worth but it feels like I lost piles.

I managed to time out with 4 4 on K 4 2 K 9 otr for piles vs. a huge whale who showed K J.

I'm definitely going to lose sleep over that one. One second too slow.

This is the life I chose or something like that