Yeah, you really have to think of it this way, plus realize the session-to-session variance that poker is.

I'm going to post some giraffe's in the LLSNL thread in about 120 hours (when I reach 1000 hours of my Super Nit method), but here's a little hint at how things can change. I have a 1013 hour sample size at 12.79 bb/hr. I also have a 1307 hour sample size at 3.97 bb/hr. Am I the crushing destroyer? Or the mediocre winner? I'm both. And likely so will you be over different stretches of time.

And session-to-session variance is very high in poker. A big win versus a big loss can easily come down to one hand. Yesterday I played an 11 hour session. I was pretty card dead, and got my shortstack in exactly once: with TT on a JT9dd flop in a 5way raised pot against AQo and AJo. My EV when I got it in on the flop was $300, but I ended up losing $200 (running $500 below EV). If I simply ran at EV (and not even won it which would be way above EV, just somehow got dolled out my fair share of equity) on this single hand (the only hand I played for stacks all session), I turn a somewhat biggish $378 session loss into an easy peasy (and modest) $122 session win. And even in this case the EV doesn't tell the whole story (as I just happened to run into a couple of idiots at the bottom of their range, and nowhere close to the average range of which is doing far better EV-wise against me).

Basically, try not to sweat the ups and downs and wins and losses and all that, and just try to make sure you're making good decisions (or, at the very least, a lot better decisions than your opponents are making at a better rate than what they are doing).

GgoodluckG

He speaks the tooth!

Ran well tonight. Bought in for $400. Flopped two sets of 10s, held against top pair and boated against a straight. Raised AJss, flopped top two, took it down otf. Raised AKdd, flopped nut flush draw, called donk, raised the nut flush ott, GII against set and held.

2/5 game broke, bringing two British pros including the one who previously slow rolled me to my table. Guess where my chips went . . . another table, where my friend Elena happened to be sitting. As soon as I sat down this wannabe pro regular who I'd played with before seat changed to my left and started talking about how he was going to tear me a new one. Wtf?

We got up from the table to get some food, which set him off because he claimed we were leaving the table "short-handed" (7-handed). He argued that we should have gotten a food runner who makes a living off of tips. For such a little guy (he was maybe 5'2''), he had a big mouth. We came back and he predicted I'd lose $200 in the next half hour. (Mind you, all of this is totally impromptu on his part and not at all elicited by anything I said or did.) I asked if he was a pro and he said no. I told him of course he wasn't because if he knew anything about customer service, he'd shut the f*ck up. (Not in so many words, but you get my drift.) Oh, and I didn't lose a dime.

We left not long after we finished eating. I can't wait to stack that jerk at some point in the future. There will definitely be a slow roll involved.

Ended up $564 ($664 if you count the lucky table promo) in just under 5 hours.

From some of the stories I hear (from you and others), and from my own *very* little personal experience, the average table experience at poker in the US seems so much more toxic / *******-infested than elsewhere.

GcluelesstoxicnoobG

There are a few rotten apples in every bunch. It's OK, the ones that talk a lot of smack are just trying to overcompensate for something they know they lack. Namely, skill. In his case, he was also probably a little intimidated by the half-decent big stack sitting directly to his left. His comments were obviously defensive.

Recipe for disaster. He basically got to you and potentially makes you play better to stack him. Just ignore him.

When they talk about a fighter being too emotional, this is exactly what they are talking about. This player has gotten in your head. Some players actually act like jerks as a matter of strategy just for this exact reason. When in a big hand you are likely to act out of emotion now rather than logic.

It's very rare that a person will anger me at the poker table but if they do I just focus extra hard on making the right decisions. If you are out to get that player you are losing the mental game. This is exactly how a lot of fish react. It's very often that people come after me and try to stack me and it rarely works out in their favor.

play worse* ldo

He made our (my and my friend's) experience at the table so unpleasant the entire time that I'll probably just avoid playing at the same table with him. (Maybe that was his goal all along?)

Oh, didn't mention this but every time someone paid him off, at showdown he said to them, "good call." He had it every time of course. What a douchbag. I hope he runs into quads with top boat.

This session friggin' blew. Lost 1/3 of my bankroll. Very unhappy.

Sit at table with fish and a few good players. Raise KQcc over fish limp, four callers, SB squeezes to $60, we all call. Flop K-x-xss. SB checks, I bet $100, SB crai, I call, his AQss makes the nut flush otr. -$400.

Then nothing really happened for a while until I got 22 in SB with a couple live ones in the hand (BB and limper on BTN). Because I expect to get paid off big time post-flop when I hit, I raise to $12, only BB calls. Flop gin: 2-4-J. Check once and unfortunately he checks behind. Turn: 4. Time to start betting. He calls the $15. River: Q, brining backdoor flush. I bet $35, he raises $75, I jam for his remaining $250, putting him mainly on flushes, he calls with J4 for bigger boat. -$300.

Straddled pot, five limpers and I have AKdd, raise it to $46, live one in BB cold calls, shorty limp/jams $75, we both call. Flop 5-8-9cc, I check/fold to BB's $100 bet. He flopped a set of 5s. Runout: K-A. Glad I didn't cbet/float.

Got rivered a couple times in limped pots: A7 flopped two pair in BB, bet/bet/checked on A-7-T-3-T runout and A8 got there otr. K9 (I was BB in limped pot) bet/bet/check called $30 otr on a K-7-6dd-2-J runout (draws bricked) and V had the worst played JJ ever.

Then 3! a spwey LAGtard guy with QQ in SB and he called, flop A-T-7r. We check. I bet $40 on 3 turn, he calls. River A, go for some thin value against his Tx and he calls with A9. Fml.

Ended down $1,000 in 10 hours. Nothing went my way tonight.

That's poker.

In the long long long long long run (ha, like we'll ever get there), things will even out. If you play better than your opponents at a decent clip to outrun the rake, you'll eventually do that.

I mentioned this in the chat thread, but long story short, last year I was disappointed when I oversetted someone on the flop, got in a huge $350 in a limped pot (which is huge in my 1/3 NL game), and got one outed on the turn. I was discouraged that I would never encounter 50 situations in my poker lifetime where I would overset someone and thus have a chance at getting back to EV in this category. But last night I was oversetted, and I came out on top and shipped about as much as I lost in the pot last year. In their own way, all these things will start moving towards evening out as you put in the hours, and the only thing you'll be left with is an overall win if you play better than your opponents versus a loss is you play worse / the same (due to rake).

FWIW, I don't like the KQs hand. I also think you misplayed almost every street in the 22 hand (but in the end I would have also lost all my chips). And if the shorty jam in the AKs hand reopens the betting (which it would in my room) you misplayed that one too, imo. Also not convinced you should be bet/betting the K9 hand (although you got two streets from worse, so what do I know). Also not totally sold on last two streets of QQ hand. But that's me, and most people hate my strat. Just my 2 cents.

Shake it off, and just do your best next time, and let the cards fall as they may.

Ggoodluck!G

Dumbostrunk, Just curious.. What is your bankroll at right now?

Says he lost a 1/3rd of his bankroll, $1k, so I am guessing $2k?

Yep just over $2k. About $2,000 has been spent on living expenses and gas. Expecting a fat check from work soon.

Gonna put in another session this afternoon at Horseshoe Baltimore after doctor’s appointment. Gotta get back into it at some point.

Today's sessions at Horseshoe Baltimore were interesting. Played first session for a couple hours, bled down uneventfully, left for ATM to reload because whale was on a heater and sitting on $700, but by the time I came back he'd left.... Then decided to give the $80 bounty tourney a shot. I bubbled when I jammed KJo UTG four-handed with 9BB and got called by AA.

Many characters at my second table, including rude Dutchman, MAGA old white guy, and young hipster dude from Michigan. Made for interesting head-butting. Unfortunately, this second session was marked by me open raising overpairs (single-raised, multiway pots) and folding on unfavorable boards, e.g., 7-8-9 with QQ, called one bet otf, folded to big river bet (V flopped nuts), AA on 9-T-Khh, folded to PSB donk, V flopped nuts. On the bright side, I didn't get stacked either hand so I guess I'm getting better at evaluating board textures.

Ended down $130 in cash and $90 in tourney.

Do you pay a fee for reloading out of the ATM at your casino? I've only done this once (wasn't expecting to play poker that day) and the fees at my casino ATM are enormous. If so, definitely don't do this, and just make sure you have a bunch of cash on hand / stored at home that you've taken directly from your bank with no fees.

GimoG

Got money from bank ATM before heading to MGM. First hand, raised QTdd, flopped the joint, got one street only as turn was a Q and killed the action. Off to a good start though!

Then change tables to where pro sitting, figured he was there for a reason. He was. Big time kahuna whale sitting on over $1k directly to his right. A few hands in, I limp KK UTG, whale raises $17 in EP, another player 3! $40 in SB, I 5! $150, whale jams $450 effective, SB tanks forever until I call clock and he snap folds. I snap call and hold against whale's AQo.

Winning strategy: Sit with whale, wait for super premium hand, print money.

Losing strategy: 4! nittiest player at the table with AKo and call it off after he 5! jams for $230 pre. Did this, didn't end well. Worst part was the flop was all hearts, he says "Oh no, look at all those hearts." I have Kh and show my hand when the fourth heart rolls off on the turn. He waits a little too long before showing AhAd.... I mentally tell him to go f*ck himself. We were five-handed so I figured I was in decent shape. Should have recalled Doyle's advice: the 5! usually means aces.

Table broke on my suggestion and new table was a dream, with two live ones. Made good money rivering nuts with QTo and turning nut flush with A9ss.

Table broke again and new table was very deep, preflop raises were ginormous: $20+ to go. I was up $350 at this point but I didn't leave. I really needed to book a win. Should have left just before rush hour hit.

Instead, I played through rush hour and lost it all, mainly by raising AK and missing, calling raises with PP and missing, bluffing $100 off trying to get JJ to fold on K-high flop (he tank called), and finally by getting it AI pre with AKo for my last $250 against JJ and AA and getting four-flushed by JJ. (It was a dreaded straddled pot and a blind raise UTG to $12, JJ called $12 in EP, I raised AKo $40 on BTN, SB shorty jammed $120 with AA, JJ flatted, I re-jammed figuring I could at least win the side pot against JJ, even if I was behind the shorty. Am I really overplaying AK pre by GII for 20bb effective?)

-$400 in 13 hours.

Gotta be honest: I am feeling sorta crushed at this point. I have lost a lot of confidence, especially after punting it off pre with AK twice in one session. Everything was going really well except for those two hands. Not sure if it's time for another break.

Everything was going really well except for those two hands. Not sure if it's time for another break.

This is a good thing. When everything else is going well, you know this is just variance and you will be on the winning side of these monster pots more often than not. You really are doing a great job, dude. Do not let bad runouts cloud your mind and pull your confidence down.

Calling a 5-bet jam vs the nittiest player at the table with AK does not seem like it's "just variance" to me.

It was a bad spot, ultimately bad decision. We were 5-handed, too, which made it tough to do anything other than GII, especially once I 4! and he jammed for just $100 more at which point I was committed. This one I fully own up to as being a mistake. The other AK spot, I'm not as sure it was a mistake.

Most live players hardly even adjust their hand ranges to short handed play.

OK, short stacking tonight. Don't feel comfortable sitting maxed out with roll below $2k. Goal is to just book a win, even if it's just $100. Time to nit it up and play like a poor man (which I am).

Modest win, up $50 in four hours. Headphones night because f*ck customer service, I'm on a major downswing and I want to tune out all the nonsense, enjoy some good tunes, and play cards. Doubled up early in straddled pot with AQo after raising and GII against KQo on Q-high flop.

I played super nitty for the most part, folding ATdd and KJcc to raises, even overlimping/folding AQo on BTN to a BB raise (he showed AJo?!).

Flopped baby flush in BB in limped pot with 34hh, called $10 flop bet, bet $25 when checked to ott, checked behind brick river because I'd hate to bet and get CRAI. MHIG.

Got QQ on btn, raised, two callers, checked K-high flop, bet second K ott, checked behind river and MHIG.

Complete A2cc in SB and bet/bet/check 2248J runout, called down by an OMC (with what?). MHIG.

Card dead for a long time until get 98hh UTG+2 and raise to $11, two callers, clueless lady on BTN says "I have my favorite hand. I'm going to play it," and raises to $22.... We all call. Flop: J-T-Ahh. Nice flop. She bets $26, only I call. Ad turn we check, 3d river gives me zilch and she checks behind, hesitates and says "I have nothing. King high," and tables K6ss. Kill me now.

I was tilted after this hand and I called it a night. As I picked up my chips and walked away, I muttered to myself, disgusted about that hand. Maybe I'm the stupid for one not CRAI otf and taking it down.

Sometimes I think I'm not cut out for this sh*t.

Definitely not stupid for not CRAI on the flop. Stupid for not betting the river though.