1/2 Monday Promotion Night
Lots of limping to win the 500 high-hand but also super aggression pre by maniacs and idiots. Players usually open for the standard 10 + 2 for limpers, but action players like V1 and others yet to act have opened to 15 in the last orbit.

V1 (UTG 700) Calling station, super wide, also making massive aggressive bluffs, a maniac except he remains calm with a lot of cash, providing for the table’s profitable financial ecosystem. Hero has made his money tonight calling V1 down with TPGK.

V2 (CO 300) Among the top three players at the table, he is a LAG with a wide limping range balanced by a limp-raising range, not a bad strategy for promotion night. He three-bets in position often, because he knows the limpers often call a small raise but fold to a three-bet. In the time I have played with him, he played about 35 percent of his hands, too wide in my view for his skill set. Still, as a thinking LAG, he knows to back off from aggression when he lacks the goods. Several times I saw him make big bets on the turn or the river with a flush or straight draw. He drinks sugar-free Red Bull: he has concern about his health and wants to stay alert. He sometimes loses his concentration. He wears glasses and probably works in tech. I would guess like 90 percent players at the casino, he loses money. His call in this hand confused the hero because he would normally three-bet or fold in this position. Hero had trouble identifying his calling range. Why did he cap his range by calling? Was he after V1?

V3 (BB 550) Among the top three players at the table, solid kindly TAG. With one other player like him at the table, with the rake structure, I enjoy myself and lose money. He tank-folded to my semi-bluff on the turn three hands ago, staring me down and inducing me to sweat. He’s seen me fold to aggression.

Hero (410) TAG who rarely finds himself at the table with two Vs (V2 and V3) paying attention to hero’s play. As thinking players, Vs know hero tries plays ABC poker. Do you think the hero played ABC?

OTTH

V1 limps. Hero with AcKd in the LJ raises to 20. V2 in the CO calls. V3 in SB raises to 150. V1 calls! Hero?

Your 10x raise over a limp is matched by the 7.5x squeeze!

Given the huge raises the stack depth isn't a problem any more so jamming is viable but I don't hate a fold either. Calling definitely the least attractive option given action

Hero.

Kinda ignored the V descriptions when you described a good LAG as someone who limps a lot. So in a vacuum vs this sizing, it's a fold until you see a showdown on what they 3bet with.

V2 thinks and plays mostly loose aggressive, tonight limp raising but on the other night only raising, never well enough to win money in a raked game, hence his call, not raise. Why should you ignore v descriptions? There’s no perfect read of a V who plays inconsistently. Misreads shape the game with irrational people just like bad predictions shape economics after inflation hawks predicted 11 of our last 5 recessions.

[QUOTE=moxterite;58132605]Your 10x raise over a limp is matched by the 7.5x squeeze!/QUOTE]

Yes, it hurt.

At end of day, how well you play your opponents is result of how well you can profile them. In many ways, we shouldn’t be surprised how badly they’re described.

You know the L in LAG doesn't stand for limp, right?

This is like pointing to the sky and say it's day time.

I get it now. You think of LAG as someone who's loose and aggressive when they have it. Like as in someone who limps with 72 and raises with 22A flop.

You know that big bets on turn vs draw are two completely different scenarios?

LOL...what?

Finally some useful information...So he's basically a typical 1/2 player who limps wide, raises when he has something, and folds when he doesn't.

The whole premise is wrong.

Dude...this is some bad read.

Right, x + y = z. Solve for z. But pay attention to x, because it's important!

Thank you for the careful critique. I like your points. I also disagree. Your premises are true but your conclusions false. What do you call someone who plays wide, three bets in position often, and limps with the intention of limp raising but often never gets the opportunity because no one raises? LAG is short hand. Every LAG is a LAG in their own, usually flawed way. A good LAG never limps, of course. That’s why V2 loses money.

TAGs are by contrast more predictable, with the big raise by V3 and call by V1 really the main action to consider. Don’t be distracted by the misdirection. Just because an OP gives a long description of a V doesn’t mean that V is the main opponent.

The important point is that V2, who normally raises in this position, called. His action was a mistake because he capped his range against a TAG.

I recommend trimming the excess verbiage in your posts. It doesn't add anything and gets too cute for basic questions. Readers want to quickly gather relevant information that gets to the point and helps answer the question. If you enjoy posting this way, that's totally fine, but you're going to lose the attention spans of good posters who will just silently ignore your posts.

There might already be good threads debating "can you fold AKo pre at 1/2" too.

OTTH: This seems like a super standard fold to me but I didn't read all the descriptions but it probably doesn't matter. You didn't make any concise argument for any action here that would also help correct your thought processes as well.

Someone who 3bets 150 pre from the blinds with a stack of only 550 usually has a hand JJ-AA, and with his large sizing he's probably near the upper end of that range so folding is absolutely fine.

I would need to know that he's a habitual squeezer and know what he squeezes with in these situations to do anything different but if it was closer to 100 BB's then I wouldn't hesitate to jam if I knew he squeezes light.

This is a jam or fold spot because you want to push out V1.

I did some back of the envelope calculations. I think you are really only - EV jamming if V3's range is AKs and KK+, KK+, or AA. But you are really negative EV if any of those are V3's range. I assume V1 will only call a very small portion of his range, something like JJ and AKo, if that (if he even has those), but this basically doesn't matter much to the calculation. These are roughly the EV's of jamming vs these ranges:

AA: -$219
KK+: -$100
AKs, KK+: -$32
QQ+: 24
AKo/AKs, KK+: $79
AKo/AKs, QQ+: $103
AKo/AKs, JJ+: $111
AKo/AKs, JJ+, but V folds JJ: $141

So we need to be assign a high probability that villain's range has at least QQ or AKo for this to be + EV. This is where history with villain and tells (especially tells on sizing) should come into play. Let's say villain has a 1/4 chance to have AA+, 1/4 chance to have KK+, and 1/2 chance to have JJ+, but folding JJ. You still have a negative EV of about -$9.

There is something to be said that some players might bet KK and QQ higher to get folds from A high hands, and AA a little lower to get a call from A high hands as well as pocket pairs.

At the end of the day, it comes down to what your reads are on villain. Also, if things are close and you aren't very sure, you may ask yourself what is more important to you? If it's not being exploited, then you should probably jam at least sometimes. If it's reducing variance and being right about making big folds, then maybe folding is the right option.

This is odd situation, with the exact raise sizes, but in some deeper games, I have put in a cold 4bet with AKo and folded to a 5bet non-all in vs certain villains, and there are villains more on the pro/reg spectrum that I have gladly put in a 6bet shove with AKo (you know you made the right decision when they 5bet folded). This is extremely player dependent.

If you fold here, it's not because V3 is a TAG, it is because he is a full on nit or gives off sizing tells.

This is an easy jam or an easy fold. Give V3's description, it's an easy fold unless you just feel like gambling.

Raising to 20 is significantly too big with just one limper, it feels like tilt at playing vs. 1-2 randos. who are limp calling wide ... but 20 just doesn't help you that much more than 10, 12 or even 15 and in theory it makes your range much smaller and makes variance worse (and makes 3bets, and bad flops , more expensive).


The 150 is even worse though, I doubt even JJ does this and then folds for 250 to win 950+. It's probably near the worst sizing possible no matter what hand/range it is.

Without better reads on SB I'd just shrug and fold, but almost any indication that this isn't just value AK,JJ+ (where we have 40%, assuming everything calls) and I'd shrug and ship it.
Note that smaller pairs don't matter much, AK,88+ only gives us an extra 1.7%. Realistically we need V to have things like AQ/KQ/A4s or whatever.

You need new envelopes.

AKo is like 7% vs. AA ... even if we assume we go HU in a $970 pot (410*2+150) that's still -$322 (not including the -$20 if we fold).
KK+ we have 18.5%
AKs,KK+ we have a huge 25.7%


Also personally I don't see how anyone folds if H shoves. Like V1 isn't folding for $250 into a $700 pot, and if V3 called $150 cold I don't see how he folds a second time.

So I did my math wrong earlier. He needs to have JJ/worse and/or AQ/worse to make this a profitable jam. If you aren't sure he can have hands like these, I would probably just fold, because if you give him 50% liklihood of having QQ+/AK and 50% likihood of him being wider, it is probably still a fold.

This post will be my last for I while. I won’t write for trolls who, rather than give good reasons, say means things. To everyone who dislikes my word choices in my reads, I suggest three letters: OTH.

Results

Hero folded, V2 folded. Flop was QJ7r. V1 went all in. V3 folded, and the maniac scooped.

I work at intensiv care.
At every shift change, we have to report to the following doctor in line who the patients are and what their problems are.
Some guys tell you in 10 minutes what to look after and what needs to be done.
some guys talk for almost an hour and you have no idea what you should do now.

So what? This is a poker forum, not the ER. It's strategy but it's also fun and meant to be enjoyable -- at least for those of us with a life and a sense of humor. I like reading adonson's descriptions, and I think the more detail on players the better -- otherwise it's just basic math, and most of us can do that, so what would be the point of these posts?

I think it's fine to pass on people trolling you.

But I also tried to be direct but courteous and give feedback to help you improve your strategy posts. It may seem irrelevant, but getting better at talking poker (improving your poker communication skills basically) is going to benefit you if you truly do want to get better.

Is that solver working correctly? If his range is QQ+, he gets smashed by KK, AA and then is 48% against QQ. There's only $24 in dead money in the post so I don't see how
QQ+ could in any way be a net positive value.

Wait, there was a maniac here? Is this post what would you do with AKo against a maniac who 3bet on the button? If so, then that's a jam 100000% of the time.

Yeah I suspect there’s a mistake in math. Hard to believe we have a profitable jam vs QQ+ or AK/KK+.



Maniac was another player in the hand not the guy that 3bet.