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Old 02-05-2020, 02:48 PM   #24901
Mr Spyutastic
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also objectively $12k is a lot of money. It wouldn't feel great to lose that.
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Old 02-05-2020, 04:01 PM   #24902
Davinho
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hey guys if u win a big promo or bbjp do you put it in your winrate,, its a lot and its like a 100% rakeback for lifetime play
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Old 02-05-2020, 04:29 PM   #24903
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Please read the last 100-ish posts. We just discussed this issue.

Grats on the big score, though.
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Old 02-05-2020, 05:38 PM   #24904
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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Very solid results linkhills. Would love to see some HH’s and input from you in the strat threads if you find the time. Keep it up man. Very nice rebound from the downswing. Were there any moments when you were recovering from the downswing that you realized that you were changing strat? Or was it mainly just runbad and tilt?
It was bad runbad, then pretty bad tilt. After several bad beats/coolers during the downswing, I found myself forcing the issue and making speculative plays to try and win a big pot to get out of the hole. Was opening/calling too wide preflop which compounded my errors postflop - thought the regs were in my head and outleveled myself, etc... not the best winning formula. From there I just tightened up and played low variance poker just to secure some winning sessions which was good for me mentally. I thought regs would pick up on this and turn on aggression but they mostly played straightforward as well. After a bit of that, I was fortunate to run normal again...
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Old 02-05-2020, 05:53 PM   #24905
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Also objectively $12k is a lot of money. It wouldn't feel great to lose that.
Yepp sure felt like crap. Would like to think I learned from it though. We'll see during the next downswing.
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Old 02-05-2020, 07:14 PM   #24906
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Most players would probably stop tracking in the midst of such swing.

The craziest part is the stretch of peak to recovery of that 12k drop is close to 12 month, and I am guessing about 150 hours.

There is probably less than a handful of people who would still play poker let alone tracking their results at that point.
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Old 02-05-2020, 07:20 PM   #24907
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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
The primary way to win a disproportionally higher percentage of pots is to play a disproportionally higher percentage of pots -- and lose a disproportionally higher percentage of pots (if you don't count folding with no investment in the pot as 'losing').

The people who win more pots are rather more likely to be losers than the people who win fewer pots.
If the baseline is 11.11%, is it pretty safe to assume that most people would probably fall within 2-3% +- of that range without actively trying to win a disproportionally % of pots?

8% = $2.40
9% = $2.70
10% = $3.00
11.1% = $3.33
13% = $3.90
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Old 02-06-2020, 11:11 AM   #24908
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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In livepoker where like 95 percent of the playerpool plays severly underrolled and as a hobby it really is though.

Ive met countless players through the years who went into a 12-15 buyin downswing,coudnt handle it and quit playing.
I just got hit with an 8 buy in downer and I'm not happy about it. It's only $3000 (5 1/3 BIs and 3 2/5 BIs) but it still sucks and I'm talking a break for a few months. I'm a hobby player and I have a high income so I don't technically need a roll but I'm going to try to put together one anyways because I don't think it's good for my play if I'm stuck two bullets and know if I don't win I'll have to wait until next paycheck for more buy-ins.

The only good thing about a downer is that it really forces you to think about your game.

Last edited by reaper6788; 02-06-2020 at 11:29 AM.
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Old 02-06-2020, 12:14 PM   #24909
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by reaper6788 View Post
I just got hit with an 8 buy in downer and I'm not happy about it. It's only $3000 (5 1/3 BIs and 3 2/5 BIs) but it still sucks and I'm talking a break for a few months. I'm a hobby player and I have a high income so I don't technically need a roll but I'm going to try to put together one anyways because I don't think it's good for my play if I'm stuck two bullets and know if I don't win I'll have to wait until next paycheck for more buy-ins.

The only good thing about a downer is that it really forces you to think about your game.
I’m on a two-month BE stretch/$3-4k “downswing” myself. Sucks.
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Old 02-06-2020, 12:56 PM   #24910
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Just updated my spreadsheet through January. Now have over 400 sessions played, just shy of 1500 hours. I like this scatter graph. It probably doesn’t show anything extremely useful, I just like it

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Old 02-06-2020, 01:56 PM   #24911
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Just updated my spreadsheet through January. Now have over 400 sessions played, just shy of 1500 hours. I like this scatter graph. It probably doesn’t show anything extremely useful, I just like it

I love seeing statistics / figures like this. I wouldn't put anything more than a linear fit through that data though. If you plot win *rate* vs session length you'll see it converge to a value near zero (relative to the +-500 BB/hr for short sessions). Not really all that useful either.

A histogram of session win/losses is interesting. As are winrate over time windows.
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Old 02-06-2020, 02:34 PM   #24912
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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
Most players would probably stop tracking in the midst of such swing.

The craziest part is the stretch of peak to recovery of that 12k drop is close to 12 month, and I am guessing about 150 hours.

There is probably less than a handful of people who would still play poker let alone tracking their results at that point.
I'll take the over on that one.

The lesson of online poker is that a ten- or 12-buy-in downswing, although infrequent, will happen sooner or later.

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Old 02-06-2020, 04:17 PM   #24913
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
I'll take the over on that one.



The lesson of online poker is that a ten- or 12-buy-in downswing, although infrequent, will happen sooner or later.





You’re missing his point entirely
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:01 PM   #24914
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A 12 BI downswing isn’t too crazy
I think it’s dependent on your win rate. If you’re a 10 BB/hr winner who doesn’t play bad/tilt in the midst of a downswing it would be pretty crazy.

If you tilt you’re screwed long term anyways unless something changes. I’m not sure it matters how good you are.

Online is different. It’s wayyyyy more difficult to beat 200nl for 10bb/100 so the probability of an extended downswing is considerably higher.

Last edited by RoadtoPro; 02-06-2020 at 05:07 PM.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:06 PM   #24915
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I think it depends more on length of that downswing.

12 BI downswing in a week is really bad, but it is still far less demotivating than 12 BI downswings over 12 months.

Hard to convince yourself to want to play again after so many months of running bad.
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Old 02-06-2020, 05:10 PM   #24916
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Also is $12k really that much, assuming you’re playing 2/5+ professionally?

That’s like a month of grinding if you increase your volume and can maintain your A-game in the midst of a downswings.

For me, I play way better when I’m losing since I’m determined to do whatever studying/reflecting/work off the table to go back into god mode. When cruising/winning 10 straight sessions w/e it’s way easier to start spewing thinking I’m invincible. (Winner’s tilt)

imo it should only be soul crushing if you don’t have reason to believe you’re going to win it all back and more eventually. (i.e losing, under-rolled , players). Probably person dependent though.

Last edited by RoadtoPro; 02-06-2020 at 05:22 PM.
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:35 PM   #24917
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Yeah, but he doesn't play professionally. Did you not read that his tracked hours are 600 over a bit more than 4 years. That downswing was more than a year long for him.

Combine that with the fact that he clearly doesn't need poker, and I'm impressed by the fact that he didn't just say "to hell with this hobby."
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:24 PM   #24918
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Ed Miller said that 30k downswings are possible for a winning but not elite 2/5 player and that 15k-20k downswings are possible for an elite 2/5 player. Something to think about.

Now I wonder what the possible limits are for 1/2 and 1/3. The buy in is a third of the 2/5 buy in and also the vast majority of players there are not gonna put you in tough spots by 3 betting light or multi barreling. A lot of times unlike in 2/5 where you have to stack off and sometimes get stacked it's just not the case at 1/2 and 1/3. In fact I think the vast majority of my big losing sessions isn't cause I payed off, but cause I got caught bluffing or value owned myself.

So I'm thinking maybe 3-4k? Could be wrong. Over 2200 hours I've had a 2200 and 2300 downswing.
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:34 PM   #24919
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Getting struck by lightning twice in one day is possible too.
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:34 PM   #24920
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Originally Posted by RoadtoPro View Post
Also is $12k really that much, assuming you’re playing 2/5+ professionally?
If you actually consider context of what OP wrote, then being a professional in his scenario would actually make it far worse.

12 month breakeven stretch with -12k being the lowest point. If you are still a 2/5 pro at that point...
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:45 PM   #24921
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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
If you actually consider context of what OP wrote, then being a professional in his scenario would actually make it far worse.

12 month breakeven stretch with -12k being the lowest point. If you are still a 2/5 pro at that point...
I have two friends one of which is a 5/10 pro who broke even for 1200 hours and the another is a PLO pro who had a losing year. Both are still in the game. But that's gotta be ridiculously tilting.
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:57 PM   #24922
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Originally Posted by LordRiverRat View Post
Ed Miller said that 30k downswings are possible for a winning but not elite 2/5 player and that 15k-20k downswings are possible for an elite 2/5 player. Something to think about.


While I generally have liked Ed Millers books, does he have any actual math to back this up?

The poker community loves to throw numbers around without having actual mathematical proof if they are correct or not
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Old 02-06-2020, 08:01 PM   #24923
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The poker community loves to throw numbers around without having actual mathematical proof if they are correct or not
One would assume that 2+2 forum would have far fewer people appealing to authority without questioning math. I am still amazed that is far from the case.
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Old 02-06-2020, 08:28 PM   #24924
Mr Spyutastic
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While I generally have liked Ed Millers books, does he have any actual math to back this up?

The poker community loves to throw numbers around without having actual mathematical proof if they are correct or not
Yeah that was my feeling when I saw this.

Also there are just so many factors that can affect this. Skill level and quality of games and your mental state while playing are so hugely variable.
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Old 02-06-2020, 08:58 PM   #24925
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Assuming both players have a similar win rate aren’t downswings supposed to be more tilting/soul crushing for a pro?

Recs have the luxury of multiple streams of income and the ability to only play when the games are good AND when they feel like it.

Yeah losing for a longer period of time sucks but (playing) poker would be such a small % of your day-to-day that it shouldn’t matter/affect you very much?
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