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Old 02-04-2020, 05:08 PM   #24876
MikeStarr
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Im still stuck on the fact that someone who can do all this rake analysis and puts so much thought into poker thinks low stakes games are tough to beat consistently.
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Old 02-04-2020, 05:12 PM   #24877
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well, stop being stuck on it. This is a winrates thread, not a poker e-peen thread.
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Old 02-04-2020, 06:04 PM   #24878
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First time poster - overall 600 live hrs played since 2016. Playing exclusively in 200bb 2/5 games. My wins/losses ratio is 63%/37%. Had a ~12k downswing in late 2017 due to bad run/tilt and came back with a couple monster +5k and +6k sessions in mid 2018. Graph is swingy but content with the total results at 11/bb an hr. Overall probably ran better than average player.


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Old 02-04-2020, 06:24 PM   #24879
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Well, stop being stuck on it. This is a winrates thread, not a poker e-peen thread.
Fair enough but how is anyone supposed to take seriously a person's analysis of rake, bankroll requirements, win rates or anything else discussed in this thread if the person cant beat low stakes poker games? Or thinks its so hard to do?
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Old 02-04-2020, 06:31 PM   #24880
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Well, stop being stuck on it. This is a winrates thread, not a poker e-peen thread.
They are the same thing to a lot of poker players. Probably most LLSNL grinders.

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Fair enough but how is anyone supposed to take seriously a person's analysis of rake, bankroll requirements, win rates or anything else discussed in this thread if the person cant beat low stakes poker games? Or thinks its so hard to do?
Thank you. No disrespect to whoever said low stakes poker is hard to beat, but if you are struggling to beat it you should not give advice.
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Old 02-04-2020, 06:33 PM   #24881
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Fair enough but how is anyone supposed to take seriously a person's analysis of rake, bankroll requirements, win rates or anything else discussed in this thread if the person cant beat low stakes poker games? Or thinks its so hard to do?
How are you supposed to take a doctor‘s diagnosis seriously when he doesn’t know how to change his own oil?
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Old 02-04-2020, 07:30 PM   #24882
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How are you supposed to take a doctor‘s diagnosis seriously when he doesn’t know how to change his own oil?
If he cant change his own oil, he be shouldnt posting car repair advice on an auto forum and if he does post car repair advice anyway, as soon as someone realizes he cant change his own oil, someone should point that out so unsuspecting people dont take his advice. Your analogy makes no sense.
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Old 02-04-2020, 07:36 PM   #24883
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The point is that the cost of rake is the same, no matter if you are Postle-like, or Fossil-like. And it has an effect. On some players it has a huge effect. Many losing players would be winning players if it weren't for rake.

It is neither worth pretending that it doesn't matter, nor is it worthwhile to focus of a comment about it being hard for many to beat LLSNL to the exclusion of the discussion. It's not hard for you, fine. That doesn't mean that rake doesn't matter. Now please shut up about the comment.
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Old 02-04-2020, 07:47 PM   #24884
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I feel like people are just arguing over semantics.

When people say low stakes are hard to beat because of rake, I don't think they are meaning low stakes is hard to beat like in the game itself.

It just means it's harder because you have a bigger handicap to overcome which is the rake. Not that the game itself is difficult.

Like in the low stakes Cali games, when you're raking a stack off the table every hour you gotta be crushing to make a good profit.
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Old 02-04-2020, 09:16 PM   #24885
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Fair enough but how is anyone supposed to take seriously a person's analysis of rake, bankroll requirements, win rates or anything else discussed in this thread if the person cant beat low stakes poker games? Or thinks its so hard to do?
The analysis was using basic math. It wasn't an opinion using appeal to authority.

It's as if I posted that 2 + 2 = 4 and that math is hard.

And that because I said math is hard and therefore my calculation that 2 + 2 = 4 has no merit?

Is there any value to add to the discussion other than your opinion of whether LLSNL is hard to beat?
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Old 02-05-2020, 04:35 AM   #24886
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Do you think dealers would hate someone who started tipping $1 every other hand won instead of every hand (to cut down significantly on costs)? Given how much actually goes to tips each year, I'm strongly considering it.

Any other good ideas on cost-cutting as it pertains to full-time poker? I am on a bit of a break-even stretch, so lately I have been trying to be as frugal as possible.
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Old 02-05-2020, 05:24 AM   #24887
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Do you think dealers would hate someone who started tipping $1 every other hand won instead of every hand (to cut down significantly on costs)? Given how much actually goes to tips each year, I'm strongly considering it.

Any other good ideas on cost-cutting as it pertains to full-time poker? I am on a bit of a break-even stretch, so lately I have been trying to be as frugal as possible.
Of course. I'm assuming most of us are grinders and already tip less than half of what a lot of recs tip. If you're a grinder the dealer probably know what your goal is so it's understandable. However if you tip even less, that's almost like not tipping. It may also make the rec players dislike you and start playing tricky/trying to bluff you more instead of playing straightforward against you. I've had people call me out for "only" tipping $2 when I stack someone for 100 bbs.

It's up to you, but pretend you have an office job. Would you take a 5-10% raise if it meant everyone in the office hated you?

As for other cost-cutting methods, there really isn't much other than maybe eating before and after sessions at home. Or bringing water in a backpack but I tend to avoid the backpack cause it gives off grinder vibes. If you're breaking even or downswinging, consider playing in the rooms with weekly freerolls. Yes you will be playing in games where your hourly will be lower, but those games are nitty, straightforward and low variance. As much as I hate to admit it, if I'm getting crushed and near the trough of a downswing I would rather sit in a low variance nitty game than a high variance juicy game. Also if you cash even half the time in freerolls, it's almost like getting a small "steady" paycheck. The $1300 I got in Flamingo freerolls last month including the monthly I played today was more than I made playing cash cause I was having a bad break even stretch, which is what made me play there in the first place.
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Old 02-05-2020, 06:36 AM   #24888
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Of course. I'm assuming most of us are grinders and already tip less than half of what a lot of recs tip. If you're a grinder the dealer probably know what your goal is so it's understandable. However if you tip even less, that's almost like not tipping. It may also make the rec players dislike you and start playing tricky/trying to bluff you more instead of playing straightforward against you. I've had people call me out for "only" tipping $2 when I stack someone for 100 bbs.

It's up to you, but pretend you have an office job. Would you take a 5-10% raise if it meant everyone in the office hated you?

As for other cost-cutting methods, there really isn't much other than maybe eating before and after sessions at home. Or bringing water in a backpack but I tend to avoid the backpack cause it gives off grinder vibes. If you're breaking even or downswinging, consider playing in the rooms with weekly freerolls. Yes you will be playing in games where your hourly will be lower, but those games are nitty, straightforward and low variance. As much as I hate to admit it, if I'm getting crushed and near the trough of a downswing I would rather sit in a low variance nitty game than a high variance juicy game. Also if you cash even half the time in freerolls, it's almost like getting a small "steady" paycheck. The $1300 I got in Flamingo freerolls last month including the monthly I played today was more than I made playing cash cause I was having a bad break even stretch, which is what made me play there in the first place.
Yeah I moved from the juicy games in my normal casino to the nit/promo monkey casino up the road. Like you said, lower variance and smaller wins but just what I need. Thanks.
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Old 02-05-2020, 08:26 AM   #24889
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Too much talk about rake affecting winrates IMO.

Rake IS there. It will ALWAYS be there. Accept it. Talk about theoretical winrate without rake is nonsense.

It's like a competitive hot dog eating professional saying "My eating rate would be way higher if I didn't have to chew and swallow". "I could make it as a pro except for that"
I read a theory somewhere where the biggest effect of rising rake is that it busts the breakeven players (eg. people who aren't padding your bottom line anyway)

Obviously that doesn't mean more rake is better, just that it's not as simple as $1 more rake = $1 less profit

fwiw the softest games I've played have had the highest rake.

Forget the sky is falling nonsense, just do the best you can.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:27 AM   #24890
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I read a theory somewhere where the biggest effect of rising rake is that it busts the breakeven players (eg. people who aren't padding your bottom line anyway)

Obviously that doesn't mean more rake is better, just that it's not as simple as $1 more rake = $1 less profit

fwiw the softest games I've played have had the highest rake.

Forget the sky is falling nonsense, just do the best you can.
If all players have equal chance of winning and table plays average of 30 hands per hour, $1 additional rake translates to $3.33 less profit per hour.

$1 rake x 30 hands = $30 rake.

$30 rake / 9 players = $3.33 per player.

*I am a winning poker player since 2009* - trust me even if you don't understand trust the math above.

Last edited by Tanqueray; 02-05-2020 at 10:36 AM. Reason: Edited to make sure there is no more question about my authority.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:28 AM   #24891
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Several derail posts deleted. Several of them were good posts, just not for this thread. As I have mentioned before, this is not the thread for arguing about who is good at poker. Continuing to do so after this post will result in thread exiles.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:52 AM   #24892
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Originally Posted by linkhills View Post
First time poster - overall 600 live hrs played since 2016. Playing exclusively in 200bb 2/5 games. My wins/losses ratio is 63%/37%. Had a ~12k downswing in late 2017 due to bad run/tilt and came back with a couple monster +5k and +6k sessions in mid 2018. Graph is swingy but content with the total results at 11/bb an hr. Overall probably ran better than average player.


Solid results and good first post. Welcome to the board. I'm sorry this got lost in the shuffle since it came in the middle of an annoying back-and-forth.

Not sure if I'd still be playing if I hit a $12K downswing. That sounds soul-crushing.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:55 AM   #24893
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by linkhills View Post
First time poster - overall 600 live hrs played since 2016. Playing exclusively in 200bb 2/5 games. My wins/losses ratio is 63%/37%. Had a ~12k downswing in late 2017 due to bad run/tilt and came back with a couple monster +5k and +6k sessions in mid 2018. Graph is swingy but content with the total results at 11/bb an hr. Overall probably ran better than average player.


Dont wait another 12 years for your second poast my man. Rock solid results, nice werk!!
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:20 AM   #24894
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Very solid results linkhills. Would love to see some HH’s and input from you in the strat threads if you find the time. Keep it up man. Very nice rebound from the downswing. Were there any moments when you were recovering from the downswing that you realized that you were changing strat? Or was it mainly just runbad and tilt?
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Old 02-05-2020, 11:45 AM   #24895
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
If all players have equal chance of winning and table plays average of 30 hands per hour, $1 additional rake translates to $3.33 less profit per hour.

$1 rake x 30 hands = $30 rake.

$30 rake / 9 players = $3.33 per player.

*I am a winning poker player since 2009* - trust me even if you don't understand trust the math above.
But all players don't have an equal chance of winning, that's the big thing

I'm also a winning player since '09, I'd wager almost everyone who hasn't abandoned their 2p2 account is too.
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Old 02-05-2020, 12:02 PM   #24896
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Main point is that it establishes a baseline.

And you might be surprised that it probably isn't a big thing because of these couple of reasons:

1. Players who win a disproportionally higher percentage of pots in LLSNL probably moved up.

2. Winning more pots also means paying more rake.

Those two reasons combined would probably reduce the noise and put everyone closer to the same probability of winning in LLSNL.
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Old 02-05-2020, 01:05 PM   #24897
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The primary way to win a disproportionally higher percentage of pots is to play a disproportionally higher percentage of pots -- and lose a disproportionally higher percentage of pots (if you don't count folding with no investment in the pot as 'losing').

The people who win more pots are rather more likely to be losers than the people who win fewer pots.
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Old 02-05-2020, 02:30 PM   #24898
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very nice linkhills..the way u described ur downswing it seems u were not exactly making the best decisions..not just strictly variance
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Old 02-05-2020, 02:33 PM   #24899
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Solid results and good first post. Welcome to the board. I'm sorry this got lost in the shuffle since it came in the middle of an annoying back-and-forth.

Not sure if I'd still be playing if I hit a $12K downswing. That sounds soul-crushing.
A 12 BI downswing isn’t too crazy
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Old 02-05-2020, 02:41 PM   #24900
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A 12 BI downswing isn’t too crazy
In livepoker where like 95 percent of the playerpool plays severly underrolled and as a hobby it really is though.

Ive met countless players through the years who went into a 12-15 buyin downswing,coudnt handle it and quit playing.

Last edited by Petrucci; 02-05-2020 at 02:51 PM.
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