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Old 12-14-2019, 05:10 PM   #24651
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Solid stuff Qtum
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Old 12-14-2019, 05:57 PM   #24652
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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
Had a roommate who's brother was a magician so growing up he'd spend time learning card tricks.

He showed me what just an amateur like him was capable of doing right in front of my eyes while I was looking for it and I still couldn't see it happen despite knowing it was happening.

Super scary and from them on swore off playing home games if they had high stakes. It's also the first thing I think about regarding guys like Esfandiari. Not calling him a cheater, but I'd never sit down against a former clown or magician unless at a casino because they are fully capable of doing as they please if they could touch the cards.
I got a pal who is a former crossroader that does a lot of slight of hand stuff for movies - like when they zoom in on a mechanic showing some of his chops.

I have sat down with him at a table. He will tell you exactly how he is going to cheat you. Cant see it. He will then slow down SIGNIFICANTLY, still cant see it. Eventually he breaks it down into sections where you can begin to see it.

It is beyond mindblowing what a skilled mechanic can do.

If you think you can spot a skilled mechanic you simply have never encountered one, or are unaware that you have.
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Old 12-14-2019, 08:44 PM   #24653
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I got a pal who is a former crossroader that does a lot of slight of hand stuff for movies - like when they zoom in on a mechanic showing some of his chops.

I have sat down with him at a table. He will tell you exactly how he is going to cheat you. Cant see it. He will then slow down SIGNIFICANTLY, still cant see it. Eventually he breaks it down into sections where you can begin to see it.

It is beyond mindblowing what a skilled mechanic can do.

If you think you can spot a skilled mechanic you simply have never encountered one, or are unaware that you have.
Yeah, it was a truly terrifying moment for me as well. I'd previously assumed it was mostly movie magic or something that very few people were capable of
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Old 12-14-2019, 08:56 PM   #24654
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How much of the mechanic stuff is thwarted by having a cut card on the bottom of the deck? Or by having a shuffle machine so that the dealer isn't riffling the deck by hand?
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Old 12-14-2019, 09:35 PM   #24655
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Angrist - It would have almost zero impact. He will simply switch in a cooler at some point. Having a cc on the bottom of a hand shuffle does not matter at all. My boy did it to me with one. I cut the deck, I contorted my body, I did not blink, I was told precisely how I was gunna get worked and I could not see it
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Old 12-14-2019, 11:51 PM   #24656
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It seems that card mechanics have gotten past the so-called "mechanic's grip" and the characteristic snapping sound of dealing seconds.
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Old 12-15-2019, 12:21 AM   #24657
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Angrist - It would have almost zero impact. He will simply switch in a cooler at some point. Having a cc on the bottom of a hand shuffle does not matter at all. My boy did it to me with one. I cut the deck, I contorted my body, I did not blink, I was told precisely how I was gunna get worked and I could not see it
My exact experience, he basically had several different options to tackle the problem. But essentially they are so good at the touch and visual part that they can take a quick peek while gathering, see that the ace is the 17th card from the top and then put it in another exact spot and then cut it so exact etc etc.

He could blindly pick up a pile a cards and tell me how many were there.

Practice a false shuffle, see how impossible that seems to shuffle a deck so precisely that at the end it's back to where it started. That's basic for them.
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Old 12-15-2019, 01:01 AM   #24658
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This is becoming a derail, but ... shuffle machines then?

My experience with home games and charity rooms is that they're so incredibly juicy there's no way we're getting cheated. Is it possible? Yea, but the results aren't indicating it. I'd expect it's more likely you get rolled in the parking lot.
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Old 12-15-2019, 01:25 AM   #24659
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This is becoming a derail, but ... shuffle machines then?

My experience with home games and charity rooms is that they're so incredibly juicy there's no way we're getting cheated. Is it possible? Yea, but the results aren't indicating it. I'd expect it's more likely you get rolled in the parking lot.
I have no experience with charity rooms

Shuffle machines oddly don't shuffle but put the cards in a specific order. This order can be randomly generated or you can interface with them and choose a configuration. Most of them have Bluetooth/Wifi. I've never heard of this being implemented but it's possible to do.

That requires an inside man standing nearby with a laptop so I doubt it would happen at a charity room that used shuffling machines.
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Old 12-15-2019, 10:13 AM   #24660
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, this is getting into a derail, folks. Take it to the chat thread or one of the mechanic threads in C&CP, please.

As far as mechanincs affecting winrates, those skills are rare and few who have them are bothering with LLSNL homegames. Fewer yet are risking their dealing jobs as part of a team in charity room, casino, etc. If one dude starts winning Postle-style, I'd change games if I were you, just like I would if security seems off or something else trips my Spidey senses, but I wouldn't let worry about mechanics dealing keep me away from entire styles of games in general.
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Old 12-18-2019, 04:23 AM   #24661
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I wonder what a decent, winning (say 7bb/hr) 1/3 player's win rate would be if Dan Bilzerian was at the table and you were deep. Or in general if a huge donk who raises just about anything is at your table, is deep and you have position on him. $100/hr? $150/hr?

Also what kind of adjustments would you make? And would you still have a stop loss under such conditions or just shake it off and play even if stuck $1500?
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Old 12-18-2019, 11:22 AM   #24662
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LRR - thats a tough question. From what I have seen guys winning 7 bigs per at the lower games are not great at making adjustments and really using their chips as weapons of mass destruction. If they were capable of making appropriate adjustments in order to really exploit opponents they would win more imo. So their w/r would be boosted as would the rest of the tables but it would not be obscene as I doubt they would be willing to do what it takes to funnel all of that whale money in their direction
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Old 12-18-2019, 04:07 PM   #24663
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I wonder what a decent, winning (say 7bb/hr) 1/3 player's win rate would be if Dan Bilzerian was at the table and you were deep. Or in general if a huge donk who raises just about anything is at your table, is deep and you have position on him. $100/hr? $150/hr?

Also what kind of adjustments would you make? And would you still have a stop loss under such conditions or just shake it off and play even if stuck $1500?
As long as i am not tilted, playing a decent game and is able to continue to put my money in +EV situations the answer is yes i will keep reloading.

When i started out playing i had a stop loss of 3 buyins for the first 2-3 years, but that isnt the case anymore. Instead i am honest with myself in assessing if the game is still good, am i tilting, tired or in some other way unable tocontinue playing good poker. That is the parameters i use to choose to continue playing or not. I have been ****ing sick of poker after losing 1 buyin a certain night and made the decision to drive home, or i can be down 5 buyins and feel fine continue playing.
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Old 12-18-2019, 05:38 PM   #24664
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LRR - thats a tough question. From what I have seen guys winning 7 bigs per at the lower games are not great at making adjustments and really using their chips as weapons of mass destruction. If they were capable of making appropriate adjustments in order to really exploit opponents they would win more imo. So their w/r would be boosted as would the rest of the tables but it would not be obscene as I doubt they would be willing to do what it takes to funnel all of that whale money in their direction
as someone who wins around 7 bigs at lower blind levels, i'm extremely curious on adjustments that could/should be made to make our chips WMDs. please teach me oh lord of the face squids, harbinger of recreationing, keeper of the thermals

Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 12-18-2019 at 05:43 PM.
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Old 12-18-2019, 05:46 PM   #24665
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IME, have the whales covered and have position on them, 3! big (preferably with big pairs), b/b/j. Somewhat higher-variance route is to 3! strong but not top 2% hands like 99+/AJ+, which can get dicey post-flop but still profitable. I prefer the former. Oh, and you need to be at their table to begin with, so by all means hunt them down - get a table change.

Squid has more experience in this than me though, would also like to hear what he has to say.

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 12-18-2019 at 06:00 PM.
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Old 12-18-2019, 06:28 PM   #24666
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Being able to improve from 7bb to 9bb is probably not as simple as adjustments contained in 2 sentences, or even 2 paragraphs.

If you think it is, good luck.
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Old 12-18-2019, 07:01 PM   #24667
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In the first place, I think the past few posts are in response to LordRiverRat's question about adjusting to a player with a very high PFR and correspondingly wide range.

Secondly, I think it is reasonably likely that a non-crushing winning player could boost their win rate against a typical field from 7bb/hr to 9bb/hr by making a simple adjustment: not paying off as often on the river. This is probably the number one biggest leak in most non-crushing players' games. Hours and hours of slow win can disappear with one bad judgment in a spot that is typically underbluffed.
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Old 12-18-2019, 07:02 PM   #24668
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Being able to improve from 7bb to 9bb is probably not as simple as adjustments contained in 2 sentences, or even 2 paragraphs.

If you think it is, good luck.
Perhaps, or perhaps not. I do know, however, that some of my biggest wins (and those of others like me) have come from playing with whales. Surely that boosted my winrate, although by how much is unquantifiable.
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Old 12-19-2019, 12:29 AM   #24669
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
In the first place, I think the past few posts are in response to LordRiverRat's question about adjusting to a player with a very high PFR and correspondingly wide range.

Secondly, I think it is reasonably likely that a non-crushing winning player could boost their win rate against a typical field from 7bb/hr to 9bb/hr by making a simple adjustment: not paying off as often on the river. This is probably the number one biggest leak in most non-crushing players' games. Hours and hours of slow win can disappear with one bad judgment in a spot that is typically underbluffed.
"Not paying off as often on the river" is only accomplished by solid metering of ranges. And that's not a "pick it up in a weekend" skill.
So while you're likely not wrong, it's not that simple to implement.
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Old 12-19-2019, 09:53 AM   #24670
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Jots - I dont want to get into a whole strat discussion thing here. Obviously people at 1/2 and 1/3 specifically are doing some good things by winning 7 bigs per hour. However, I think the top of what someone can win is significantly higher. So these guys are missing some critical aspects to their game.

I have found that the last thing players get good at is making accurate reads AND making the appropriate adjustments (this imo is a key to WOMAD).

I have yet to see a middling player (one that is winning decent at 1/3. We are not discussing 2/5 w/r here) do much to really take care of biz when an opportunity occurs. Whether it be in the form of ramped up aggression, or picking off ultralight. However, I have seen stone cold killers do both really really well.
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Old 12-19-2019, 10:23 AM   #24671
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What does WOMAD stand for Squid?
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Old 12-19-2019, 10:48 AM   #24672
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sorry - weapons of mass destruction
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Old 12-19-2019, 10:58 AM   #24673
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sorry - weapons of mass destruction
Did you learn nothing from the Bush years? We call them WMDs and they don't exist
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Old 12-19-2019, 11:05 AM   #24674
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Did you learn nothing from the Bush years? We call them WMDs and they don't exist
As many in this forum will attest to I have never claimed to be smart
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Old 12-19-2019, 01:24 PM   #24675
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
IME, have the whales covered and have position on them, 3! big (preferably with big pairs), b/b/j. Somewhat higher-variance route is to 3! strong but not top 2% hands like 99+/AJ+, which can get dicey post-flop but still profitable. I prefer the former. Oh, and you need to be at their table to begin with, so by all means hunt them down - get a table change.

Squid has more experience in this than me though, would also like to hear what he has to say.
You short stack 2/5 so I doubt you are using your chips as WMD's.
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