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Old 11-20-2019, 08:19 PM   #24551
miamicheats
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
Plus games at every level are different - one may master the 1/2 game and struggle in 2/5 because the same attributes that lead to winning in 1/2 are losing attributes in 2/5.

And once you move up to 2/5 or 5/10, it can be very difficult to move back down to 1/2.

The commitment factor in areas with smaller player pool is also an issue when deciding whether to "study" to move up. It's hard for some of you to believe or even accept, but "advance" information can also be -EV when applying in a smaller game. Hence the whole saying "move up to where people respect your raises."


Between certain levels there are big skill jumps, smaller between others. There becomes a point where their truly is a diminishing return (for most of us except the elite of the elite). A lot also depends on your ecosystem. What is the biggest game that runs on a semi regular frequency? How many levels are there below that?

Where I live, 5/10 and 10/25 have a huge talent (maybe work ethic is actually correct) disparity but the difference between 2/5 and 5/10 isn’t as large. It’s more of a confidence and bankroll question and less about skill, whereas at the next jump the game is way more difficult. Sure there are different player pool tendencies that someone needs to adjust to, but the actual difficult imo isn’t much different.

It helps that a big chunk of the best players don’t bother playing lower than 10/25. 25/50 v 10/25 though don’t have a big difference. In fact 25/50 is probably softer because it attracts certain fun players that think 10/25 is too small for them.


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Old 11-20-2019, 10:07 PM   #24552
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I never said I didn’t think I could beat 5/10 anywhere, I just don’t see the point of getting involved with the decent pros in my regularly running 5/10 (which is a pretty bad game) when I have much softer games on hand. I'd just rather game select and play lower with worse players rather than sit with a bunch of decent regs at the next stake up where my options are limited.

I am pretty sure there are 5/10s elsewhere that are much better than the one my casino (MGMNH) spreads.

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 11-20-2019 at 10:36 PM.
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Old 11-21-2019, 05:55 AM   #24553
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

We have already discussed ITT before about WR of top players on a table.

By this time we agreed that on a standard 9plrs table, top 3 are usually winner, 4 and 5 are usually breakeven and 6-9 are probably loosing players.

When we are grinding at 2/5 (for example) and are winning players with a good sample we probably are the top 3 player on average.

When we move up to, let’s say, 5/T, we rarelly will be top 3 on average (even more, as described, when the table have 2 CRUSHERS).
So we are probably between the best 3-6 on the table.

If I’m only grinding, I usually don’t stay on a table where I’m not sure being the top 3 and maaaaybe the top 4, because I know it won’t be profitable to keep playing.

BUT, going up on stakes are one of the things that attracts me on Poker.
So with a good strategy there is no problem on being a loser/breakeven player for a while, during the transition.

For example, we could keep grinding our regular stake and make some shots on higher stakes during more favorable days (weekends and degen hour) to minimize our losses and start to gather information about the new pool.
We put a conservative stop loss and play tighter than usual.
And, of course, put some hours of off-table study.

I only think that it’s important to sometimes get out of our confort zone and seek the improvement. Either we are talking about a semi-serious hobby or a profession.
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Old 11-21-2019, 08:26 AM   #24554
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the input. It is a tough question to answer so I’ll just keep shot taking and build up a sample. Worst case scenario it’s decent reverse game selection and I’ll learn a thing or two from the better players.
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Old 11-21-2019, 11:00 AM   #24555
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

+1 to the poasts about lazyness from Spy. It usually boils down to that, not being willing to put in the work because of x amount of excuses.
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Old 11-21-2019, 01:02 PM   #24556
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Given that this is the bankroll and winrates thread, I am surprised that there has been so little mention of bankroll in the replies to Badreg's question.

Leaving out the question of the adjustments one must make to the style of play at the bigger game (hint: an exploitative style that crushes 1-2 or 2-5 offers an easy target for exploitation in higher-stakes games), a higher-stakes game is going to require a bigger bankroll. A game that offers a smaller winrate in proportion to the blind size is going to require a bigger bankroll in proportion to those blinds. A game with a higher variance in proportion to the blinds is going to require a bigger bankroll in proportion to the blinds.

Skill level and dollars per hour aren't the only factors in the decision to move up. Variance and risk of ruin are also key factors.

One of the things that is going to happen if we move up to Badreg's hypothetical 10-20 game with 2 crushers, 4 regs, and 2 fun players is that because we have to defend against exploitation by the crushers (and to the extent they are capable the regs) we are going to be limited in our ability to exploit the fun players in ways that we wouldn't be in a smaller game. This will cut our winrate. Cutting our winrate raises our bankroll requirement. Raising the required bankroll makes sustainably playing in the big game harder to reach as we try to move up the ladder.

Also, the big games are often bigger than they first seem. It might say "10-20" on the placard beside the dealer, but is the straddle on, and if so is it mandatory? A gambly-good 10-20 game is more often than not going to be effectively a 10-20-40 game, with the swings and corresponding bankroll requirement to go with it.

An aside about "laziness": many people are willing to do the work, and in fact put time into trying to learn more, but aren't clear on precisely what to work on. E.g., watching an expert player's twitch stream might provide a little bit of improvement, but someone who studies by watching the stream isn't going to improve as much as the person who runs situation after situation through Flopzilla.
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Old 11-21-2019, 01:15 PM   #24557
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
This probably goes for most people, even top winning players. I mean, I don't play the 5/10 at my casino unless I see at least one or two recs sitting. What's the point of playing in a "tough," reg- and pro-infested line-up? IMO none, if your goal is to make $$ and not simply to challenge yourself. Maybe someone can disagree with me and point out incentives to play in these games. I just don't see them.

Sometimes I think the 5/10 regs are just passing money between themselves until a spot sits down.
There are people beating those games. They wouldn't play them if they weren't. All of those people used to play 2/5 at one point or another and don't move down because they make more at 5/T. Also some of them are backed. Maybe some line ups arn't ideal. So if they are playing in a bad line up they are probably stuck.

Good thing about 5/T is the rake. It's cheaper and deeper.
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Old 11-21-2019, 01:31 PM   #24558
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Good points Alan. Very true most people have no idea how much money you really need to play higher stakes on the regular.
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Old 11-22-2019, 12:37 AM   #24559
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have been playing some 1|2 recently for classified reasons. The second 1k hours is a different venue/time period from the first.



The graph doesn't include $7650 in promotions or $1/h in comps for the second half. My first room's only promotion was a BBJ that I never hit, unfortunately. The room I've been playing in recently offers high hands and rakeback.

Ignoring promotions and comps, my win-rate is about the same in the second 1k as the first, but promos have been worth about an additional $8/h so far. $2/pot getting sucked into the BBJ forever hurts a lot.
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:39 AM   #24560
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice work Browni, looks like you’re super consistent in your play. Hardly any significant downswing in there at all (I mean that as a sincere compliment, not a “watch out for the inevitable incoming downswing” way). Curious why you wouldn’t move up to 2/5 though? No worries if you’d rather not explain.
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Old 11-22-2019, 03:16 AM   #24561
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

"been playing some 1/2" = I crushed for 2k hours.
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Old 11-22-2019, 04:35 AM   #24562
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

yeah man, that's a sick graph

what stakes you normally play? have you been doing table selection beyond limiting it to 1-2?
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Old 11-22-2019, 05:25 AM   #24563
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Very impressive graph. Both the poker skill and the ability to hit high hand skill are top notch.
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Old 11-22-2019, 12:27 PM   #24564
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Awesome giraffe Browni!

Curious as to what the rake is in your game?

And how does a rakeback promotion work?

GcluelessrakenoobG
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:52 PM   #24565
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Those games have to be super juicy too, curious what kind of hilarious nonsense you see over 2k hours of 1/2 when you're winning consistent 10bb/hr raked.

Browni should write up a 1/2 crusher digest.
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Old 11-22-2019, 06:17 PM   #24566
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I have been playing some 1|2 recently for classified reasons. The second 1k hours is a different venue/time period from the first.



The graph doesn't include $7650 in promotions or $1/h in comps for the second half. My first room's only promotion was a BBJ that I never hit, unfortunately. The room I've been playing in recently offers high hands and rakeback.

Ignoring promotions and comps, my win-rate is about the same in the second 1k as the first, but promos have been worth about an additional $8/h so far. $2/pot getting sucked into the BBJ forever hurts a lot.
Nobody is claiming Browni is “lazy” for sticking to 1/2 and thriving there. That speaks volumes.
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Old 11-22-2019, 09:48 PM   #24567
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Nobody is claiming Browni is “lazy” for sticking to 1/2 and thriving there. That speaks volumes.
i think the "confidential reasons" curveball proactively killed it
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Old 11-22-2019, 10:55 PM   #24568
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Nice work Browni, looks like you’re super consistent in your play. Hardly any significant downswing in there at all (I mean that as a sincere compliment, not a “watch out for the inevitable incoming downswing” way). Curious why you wouldn’t move up to 2/5 though? No worries if you’d rather not explain.
I did move up at about 900 hours. I played 2k hours of 2/5 also but had to move back down due to circumstances unrelated to poker.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
yeah man, that's a sick graph

what stakes you normally play? have you been doing table selection beyond limiting it to 1-2?
I almost never table change for game selection. This would probably be the lowest hanging fruit for me to improve my winrate. The reasons I haven’t been doing it are because it takes me a little while to build reads on players so when I table change I’m throwing that away. It’s also hard for me to tell how good a table is at a glance. Another reason is that turnover is high, so if I’m seated at a bad table there’s a good chance it will get better in an hour.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Awesome giraffe Browni!

Curious as to what the rake is in your game?

And how does a rakeback promotion work?

GcluelessrakenoobG
In my old room (first 900 hours) I believe rake was quite low at $4+$1 BBJ. My current room is $5+$2.

You get cash for every 50 hours you accumulate in a month. They change it pretty frequently but it generally works out to $2-$3.50 an hour cash. This is separate from the $1/h comps you also earn, although those aren’t redeemable for cash directly.
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Old 12-02-2019, 12:02 PM   #24569
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I happened to speak with 2 people who play 1/2 1/3 for a living..before taxes it’s about 28k to 36k a year
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Old 12-02-2019, 12:05 PM   #24570
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I happened to speak with 2 people who play 1/2 1/3 for a living..before taxes it’s about 28k to 36k a year
so gross, never understood the ramen noodle grinders older than 25
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Old 12-02-2019, 01:22 PM   #24571
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Awesome giraffe Browni!

Curious as to what the rake is in your game?

And how does a rakeback promotion work?

GcluelessrakenoobG
FWIW Seminole Coconut Creek does something similar:

$50 cash earned upon completion of every 50 hours of limit poker played.

$100 cash earned upon completion of every 50 hours of $1/2 or $1/3 NL poker played.

$300 cash earned upon completion of every 50 hours of $2/5 NL poker played.
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Old 12-02-2019, 01:31 PM   #24572
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I happened to speak with 2 people who play 1/2 1/3 for a living..before taxes it’s about 28k to 36k a year
This sounds like hell. You can work at In n Out and make more than this. Plus get free food. And still play poker on the side.
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Old 12-02-2019, 01:45 PM   #24573
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It depends on where you live imo. 25-£30 is definitely attainable in London 1/2 for the better regs. The best regs probably make more. Playing only 30 hours per week is £39000 which, after factoring in zero taxes is probably ~£60k. That's over double the average wage for London. Add in a few months in the US each year and it's starting to become a much more appealing prospect. Wages in the US seem much more inflated than in the UK which would be a negative for playing FT in the US.

We also have the NHS which would be a huge factor you'd have to consider if you want to go pro in the US.

Not saying it's something I want to do but it definitely is more appealing in some markets than others.
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Old 12-02-2019, 01:59 PM   #24574
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by np1235711 View Post
FWIW Seminole Coconut Creek does something similar:



$50 cash earned upon completion of every 50 hours of limit poker played.



$100 cash earned upon completion of every 50 hours of $1/2 or $1/3 NL poker played.



$300 cash earned upon completion of every 50 hours of $2/5 NL poker played.
Wow why more for NL rakeback? I thought low stakes limit games took in much more rake than low stakes NL. Maybe NL table has higher hands per hour so more rake even though per pot rake is lower or because it's a more popular game they want to incentivize the regs to keep lots of NL tables going?
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Old 12-02-2019, 02:00 PM   #24575
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It depends on where you live imo. 25-£30 is definitely attainable in London 1/2 for the better regs. The best regs probably make more. Playing only 30 hours per week is £39000 which, after factoring in zero taxes is probably ~£60k. That's over double the average wage for London. Add in a few months in the US each year and it's starting to become a much more appealing prospect. Wages in the US seem much more inflated than in the UK which would be a negative for playing FT in the US.

We also have the NHS which would be a huge factor you'd have to consider if you want to go pro in the US.

Not saying it's something I want to do but it definitely is more appealing in some markets than others.
UK doesn't tax gambling income?
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