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Old 11-03-2019, 07:20 PM   #24501
DumbosTrunk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not meant as a critique, just looking for input for the rest of us when our graphs inevitably begin to plateau. A big part of winning poker is coping with these stretches.
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Old 11-03-2019, 08:23 PM   #24502
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I just said that win rate absolutely is a measure of skill level.
Nope. browni said he doesn't use winrate as a reflection of skill. You told him that he was wrong to say that winrate isn't a reflection of skill. He told you that he didn't say that it wasn't and you quoted his post which said he didn't use it that way as "proof" that he said it wasn't a reflection, which is, exactly as he had claimed, not what he said.

Not only do you have reading comprehension issues, you love to argue and love to claim that you're not. We're done with that.
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Old 11-03-2019, 08:45 PM   #24503
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Nope. browni said he doesn't use winrate as a reflection of skill. You told him that he was wrong to say that winrate isn't a reflection of skill. He told you that he didn't say that it wasn't and you quoted his post which said he didn't use it that way as "proof" that he said it wasn't a reflection, which is, exactly as he had claimed, not what he said.

Not only do you have reading comprehension issues, you love to argue and love to claim that you're not. We're done with that.
Are we really going to debate "use" and "is"? Whatever. He can use whatever he wants for whatever he wants.
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Old 11-03-2019, 09:49 PM   #24504
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
How did you handle your break-even stretches/"downswings" in between the rungood?
At my best? Focusing on playing my best, taking mindfulness breaks, and tightening up a bit to avoid second guessing myself in close spots.

At my worst? Saying I'm terrible at poker, not playing as much, calling bets when I shouldn't just to see how bad I'm running.

It helps to look at my current winrate and calculate how long I'd have to break even to drop down to $35/hour, which is my target number for poker to feel 'worth it' to me.

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Looks like maybe (1) 200 hour and (1) 250 hours breakeven stretch? That's nothing to worry about. Also, hardly any downswings of note. Great graph, Ranma!

Personally I dont like graphs with different stakes grouped together though. Especially when things as different as 2/5 HE and 5/10 PLO are in there. That could drastically change a graph if you run really hot or cold in the bigger game.
IIRC I've got around 4 100-150 hour breakeven runs. I agree that having things mixed in is weird but I don't have the energy to make a better graph (it's just excel sheet). FWIW, all the 5/T PLO is at the end of the graph
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Old 11-03-2019, 11:39 PM   #24505
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I dont buy the "how you run" argument. Not when we are talking about long term. But then I dont play in games where people dust off $5K. And people say I play in soft games in S. Florida? LOL

In 6000 hours Ive never played a 2/5 hand with a pot over $2500. Ive probably only played 3 pots over about $1800.

I find it pretty hilarious that people think my games are soft and then I hear talk of $5000 pots and 5 sessions that account for 1/4 of a win rate.

A few days ago a guy opened 66 and ended up folding the turn to me on a J962 board when I made a huge turn check raise. We started the hand $1800 deep. Guys in my games aren't playing massive pots unless they have the nuts. Again, I dont know where you guys find guys dumping that kind of money but I guess if that's the case, then what I said isn't true. I sure dont see that kind of insanity here in S. Florida (or anywhere else Ive ever played) though and if you see that kind of craziness often enough, your win rate should be sky high and be able to absorb 1 or 2 suck outs in huge pots because you're making much more in the pots you win.


This is a bizarre post.

How could you have played 6000 hours at 2/5nl and never play a pot over $2500?

I’ve played way more than you live and online, and don’t think I’ve ever seen someone fold a set to a single turn check raise on a board without str8 possibility.

And it happened to you a few days ago?

You don’t realize the insanity of someone folding 66 there?

And you’re trying to make a point that your games aren’t soft?

You made two statements that are both very hard to believe. While also disproving your statement that your games aren’t soft.

Definitely bizarre on multiple levels.
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Old 11-04-2019, 12:05 AM   #24506
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Win rate is not a reflection of skill? I guess ERA is not a reflection of pitching skill either?
That's actually a great metaphor. ERA isn't at all the best reflection of pitching skill, that's why advanced pitching metrics such as xFIP exist. It throws out factors outside the pitcher's control, such as fielding, park factors, and some of the luck as well.
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Old 11-04-2019, 12:59 AM   #24507
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
That's actually a great metaphor. ERA isn't at all the best reflection of pitching skill, that's why advanced pitching metrics such as xFIP exist. It throws out factors outside the pitcher's control, such as fielding, park factors, and some of the luck as well.
Very true. Some pitchers have a big advantage if they pitch in large ballparks. Looking at ERAs only in away games is a better way to compare but nobody does that.

It reminds me of everyone saying the Patriots have the best defense possibly of all time without looking at their schedule which was the easiest 8 game stretch of games Ive ever seen. They played just about every inept offensive team in the league...until tonight and they got exposed by the first good offense they played.
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Old 11-04-2019, 01:07 AM   #24508
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Originally Posted by IntheNow View Post
This is a bizarre post.

How could you have played 6000 hours at 2/5nl and never play a pot over $2500?

Dont know how, but its the truth. Maybe because I play mostly during the daytime with lots of nits? Variance is much lower but so is the avg pot size so its tough to win large amounts.

I’ve played way more than you live and online, and don’t think I’ve ever seen someone fold a set to a single turn check raise on a board without str8 possibility.

And it happened to you a few days ago?

Yep

You don’t realize the insanity of someone folding 66 there?

Yes I realize it. I couldnt believe it. I would never fold 66 in that spot

And you’re trying to make a point that your games aren’t soft?

That was one hand and I was only making a point that there there are hardly any huge pots where I play. I wasn't making any point about the games being soft. I did say they get much softer this time of year. From now until April.

You made two statements that are both very hard to believe. While also disproving your statement that your games aren’t soft.

Definitely bizarre on multiple levels.
.
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Old 11-04-2019, 01:23 AM   #24509
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This ****ed-up way of replying inside the quote makes reasoned debate a lot harder.
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Old 11-04-2019, 01:32 AM   #24510
MikeStarr
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This ****ed-up way of replying inside the quote makes reasoned debate a lot harder.
Sorry. It quicker and easier to answer multiple questions clearly that way.
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Old 11-04-2019, 11:01 AM   #24511
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

"Easier"

If you can put in two Bold tags, you can put in two Quote tags.
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Old 11-04-2019, 01:38 PM   #24512
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just played 30 hours in Vegas at 2/5 (Bellagio $500 max buyin) and I saw 5+ pots of $1800 or more. I was involved in 3 of them.

Don't most people say FL games are way better than Vegas, much less the shallower Bellagio games? Not saying you're lying, it's just shocking.
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Old 11-04-2019, 01:41 PM   #24513
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Sorry. It quicker and easier to answer multiple questions clearly that way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
"Easier"

If you can put in two Bold tags, you can put in two Quote tags.
*sigh*
So this thread has deteriorated into experienced poster bitching about another experienced poster quoting...
2plus2 has really gone downhill
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Old 11-04-2019, 01:50 PM   #24514
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by PHDonner View Post
Now, years later, I've been given a lot of opportunities and am doing quite well in life, work, and society. I associate my depression with my losing streak and I just don't want to go down that freaking rabbit hole again.
If you're doing well in other aspects of your life, and poker has the *potential* to possibly derail that, then you'll really have to ask yourself whether the reward of playing poker (which should probably mostly be measured from a recreational social interaction viewpoint) is worth the risk (i.e. there might be other options that are better in this regards without the possible downside).

GgoodluckG
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Old 11-04-2019, 03:25 PM   #24515
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I have been fortunate enough to put in ~1000 hours of poker every year for the past 10 years. I will probably miss that mark this year at only 650 today.

Poker has been great for me as part of social interactions and I have made some good friends that I would not otherwise have met outside of poker.

FWIW, I have a very flexible FT salary position that allows me to set my own schedule, so I probably average anywhere between 10 to 30 hours a week during weekday afternoons.
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Old 11-04-2019, 05:27 PM   #24516
MikeStarr
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
I just played 30 hours in Vegas at 2/5 (Bellagio $500 max buyin) and I saw 5+ pots of $1800 or more. I was involved in 3 of them.

Don't most people say FL games are way better than Vegas, much less the shallower Bellagio games? Not saying you're lying, it's just shocking.
People say a lot of things. Most of the time they arent well informed. Whether the games are better than Vegas or not depends on what you are looking for I guess. S. Florida has a high percentage of retirees. They are very passive and dont put you in tough spots so that aspect makes the games easy, but the avg pot size is also probably smaller than anywhere else you'll find. You're not going to be winning large pots very often. You wont see large pots played very often at all. Especially during the daytime.

If you get good at bluffing and barrelling you can do really well. You have to be able to win money with marginal hands (not the best hand) because you wont be winning stacks with sets and straights very often like you will other places.

I played 4 hours today and there wasn't a single pot over $1000. There was probably 3-4 between $800-$1000.
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Old 11-04-2019, 05:45 PM   #24517
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
I just played 30 hours in Vegas at 2/5 (Bellagio $500 max buyin) and I saw 5+ pots of $1800 or more. I was involved in 3 of them.

Don't most people say FL games are way better than Vegas, much less the shallower Bellagio games? Not saying you're lying, it's just shocking.
other than west palm
a $800 pot is huge in $2-5 in Fl
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Old 11-04-2019, 05:46 PM   #24518
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
People say a lot of things. Most of the time they arent well informed. Whether the games are better than Vegas or not depends on what you are looking for I guess. S. Florida has a high percentage of retirees. They are very passive and dont put you in tough spots so that aspect makes the games easy, but the avg pot size is also probably smaller than anywhere else you'll find. You're not going to be winning large pots very often. You wont see large pots played very often at all. Especially during the daytime.

If you get good at bluffing and barrelling you can do really well. You have to be able to win money with marginal hands (not the best hand) because you wont be winning stacks with sets and straights very often like you will other places.

I played 4 hours today and there wasn't a single pot over $1000. There was probably 3-4 between $800-$1000.
+1 for most of Fl

Last edited by snowman; 11-04-2019 at 05:47 PM. Reason: add
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Old 11-04-2019, 11:40 PM   #24519
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

$1/$3 results after a long break from poker and a few months studying the game with the new tools available



chart:
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:16 AM   #24520
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Well played on your return Leo!
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Old 11-05-2019, 12:35 PM   #24521
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Well played on your return Leo!
+1

Also impressive volume (for I'm assuming a recreational player?).

Any reason for the break? How'd you do before the break? If this is a great improvement over before did you make any major adjustments?

Ggogogo,imoG
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Old 11-05-2019, 02:16 PM   #24522
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Finally managed to get some halfway decent volume in for October.
Only 27 hours of $1/2, but I'll take the $22.67/hr

One session in Sept Basically no volume other than a Vegas Trip for a week since the end of March.

Losing our crazy home game has sucked.
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Old 11-05-2019, 03:19 PM   #24523
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Angrist, if you're not careful I'm going to catch you hours-wise!

I wonder what the average number of hours put in by a typical recreational player is? I only get ~550 hours a year, but fear I'm lagging well behind most other recreational players who play in my room. Although I guess if you "average" it out to include all the once-every-three-monthers it looks better.

GcluelessvolumenoobG
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Old 11-05-2019, 03:24 PM   #24524
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leobzook View Post
$1/$3 results after a long break from poker and a few months studying the game with the new tools available



chart:
What new tools exactly? What have you changed in your game and in your studying?
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Old 11-05-2019, 04:42 PM   #24525
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Angrist, if you're not careful I'm going to catch you hours-wise!

I wonder what the average number of hours put in by a typical recreational player is? I only get ~550 hours a year, but fear I'm lagging well behind most other recreational players who play in my room. Although I guess if you "average" it out to include all the once-every-three-monthers it looks better.

GcluelessvolumenoobG
I'm a rec and only get 200-250 hours a year playing once a week with a once a year trip to Vegas.
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