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Old 10-28-2019, 05:51 PM   #24426
Tanqueray
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think someone had brought this up before that loss rate is probably a better indicator of what is possible.

You could be the best player in the world, but if your opponents are the tightest nits in the world, chances are, your WR is probably not going to be very high.

On the other hand, you could be a very average player, but your opponents are shoving blind, showing opponents cards, and constantly buying in thousands, your WR can probably be sky high.
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Old 10-28-2019, 05:55 PM   #24427
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Imagine a directory of casinos with loss rate:

Casino Nitfest
Type of Games: 1/2
Average loss rate: 1bb per player

Casino Regulars
Type of Games: 1/2
Average loss rate: 3bb per player

Casino Freemoney Stone
Type of Games: 1/3
Average loss rate: 10bb per player
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:00 PM   #24428
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The average loss per player is going to be a measure of the rake dropped, nothing more nor less.

Last edited by AlanBostick; 10-28-2019 at 06:01 PM. Reason: modulo bad beat/promotional drop and dealer tokes, of course
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:12 PM   #24429
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I know a 2/5 $500max buy in game that can be beaten for more then $70-$100/hr
You're saying a 100bb cap game can be beaten for over 20bb/hr on a long term basis?
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:17 PM   #24430
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
The average loss per player is going to be a measure of the rake dropped, nothing more nor less.
Correct. But rake dropped is highly correlated with type of players in the game.

Looser players, bigger pots, more rake.
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:19 PM   #24431
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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
You're saying a 100bb cap game can be beaten for over 20bb/hr on a long term basis?
Not many of them, but I know one that I believe 15-20BB/hr and possibly a bit higher is possible.
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:21 PM   #24432
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Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer View Post
It sounded like he did one or two sessions there, so def an insignificant sample size. I think what's important is the WR estimates overall. I think Doug's view applies to 10/20+, but Bart's experience shows 5bb/hr sets the bar too low for stakes lower than ~5/10 low cap.
What does that mean?
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:24 PM   #24433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
The average loss per player is going to be a measure of the rake dropped, nothing more nor less.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Correct. But rake dropped is highly correlated with type of players in the game.

Looser players, bigger pots, more rake.
I don't quite follow.

Are you differentiating loss rate from win rate, rather than a combined rate?

$10/hr loss rate to the rake + $20/hr win rate = $10/hr win??? rate.

Are you assigning different variables to each of the three?
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:29 PM   #24434
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FWIW, yes, if table plays 30 hands per hour and is raking $5 per hand, the table is "losing" $150/hr and each player is losing $16.67/hr in a 9-handed game.

That's not the loss rate I am inferring, given that the term "win rate" is used as a final tally from ($x final cashout - $y buy-in(plus rebuys)) / z type spent, my inference to loss rate is basically result of the same calculation that ends below 0.
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:29 PM   #24435
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No?

He said loss / player is equal to rake. (With a few small adjustments.)
I said I agree, but the amount of rake being taken is related to the type of player.
A table full of loose players will have larger pots, so the max rake will (likely) get hit more often. So the rake / hour goes up. Meaning the average loss per player goes up.
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Old 10-28-2019, 06:35 PM   #24436
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Miscommunication on terminology I suppose.

What I thought I was communicating is the average loss per player per hour out of individual's pocket.

If a player has "win rate" of $10/hr, what do you refer to the number of another player that loses $10/hr playing poker?
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:23 PM   #24437
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The point is that, on average, the 9 players are going to break even except for what they pay in rake, tips and cocktails.

But I think your point is important. I assume you mean, we should consider what recreational players are losing. Usually when I think about this, it pushes my guesses about the win rates of winning players down.

When there is a poker boom-- when poker is introduced to an area, a lot of really clueless players will be in the game. But after a while, they get sick of losing, go broke, their wives found out that they lost $10,000 over the last few months, poker won't be novel anymore, etc. Some will improve.

When everything settles down, you can ask if it seems reasonable that there is a steady stream of regulars who drop $60/hr in a 1/3 game for years, or whatever the number might be.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:25 PM   #24438
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Winrates are results; and results speak. I don't discard small samples in my own games because I remember exactly what happened; every mistake and every fortunate or unfortunate run out. Honestly, there's very rarely a session or tournament I didn't make any mistakes. Very rare. And I'm profitable. Occasionally I get lucky (and luck isn't just about sucking out); occasionally not so lucky.

As for live play, I also don't see the point in asking a person (or measuring yourself against that person) as to what their win rate is; unless u play specifically in the game they play in; against the same players etc. Even then the only point of that is to try and adopt some of their strategies because you believe it will improve your results.

Nor do I see the value of a winrate based on stakes, again, unless u play in those same player pools/limits that you're measuring against. Not all games are equal. Not all players are equal. It's why some of us play this game.

The question isn't: "What should my winrate be?"
The question is: "What can I do, to maximize my winrate?"
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:32 PM   #24439
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The point is that, on average, the 9 players are going to break even except for what they pay in rake, tips and cocktails.
Actually I think this is something where most would disagree.

FWIW, this is not the main point though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
But I think your point is important. I assume you mean, we should consider what recreational players are losing.
Yes for most part. I think win rate is a byproduct of what most players at the table are willing to lose, but apparently there is not a definitive coined term to such number.

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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
Usually when I think about this, it pushes my guesses about the win rates of winning players down.
That's one of the reasons why I think such discussion is more honest, because players might exaggerate how much they win, but it seems that there is less rationale to exaggerate how much average losers are willing to lose.

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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
When there is a poker boom-- when poker is introduced to an area, a lot of really clueless players will be in the game. But after a while, they get sick of losing, go broke, their wives found out that they lost $10,000 over the last few months, poker won't be novel anymore, etc. Some will improve.

When everything settles down, you can ask if it seems reasonable that there is a steady stream of regulars who drop $60/hr in a 1/3 game for years, or whatever the number might be.
Agreed, and I think that number would have strong correlation to how much a crusher can win in that game.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:33 PM   #24440
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Originally Posted by AintNodaisy View Post
Winrates are results; and results speak. I don't discard small samples in my own games because I remember exactly what happened; every mistake and every fortunate or unfortunate run out. Honestly, there's very rarely a session or tournament I didn't make any mistakes. Very rare. And I'm profitable. Occasionally I get lucky (and luck isn't just about sucking out); occasionally not so lucky.

As for live play, I also don't see the point in asking a person (or measuring yourself against that person) as to what their win rate is; unless u play specifically in the game they play in; against the same players etc. Even then the only point of that is to try and adopt some of their strategies because you believe it will improve your results.

Nor do I see the value of a winrate based on stakes, again, unless u play in those same player pools/limits that you're measuring against. Not all games are equal. Not all players are equal. It's why some of us play this game.

The question isn't: "What should my winrate be?"
The question is: "What can I do, to maximize my winrate?"
This is true. The thing is that some people think that the maximum possible win rate is "X". Other people think its "X times 2" or whatever.

The people that think its "X" already think they are maximizing their win rate and that they don't need to do anything differently because its impossible to win at a higher rate.

<head in sand>

I happen to think that if I'm at "X times 2" then there must be more I can do to get to "X times 2.5".
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:36 PM   #24441
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Originally Posted by AintNodaisy View Post

As for live play, I also don't see the point in asking a person (or measuring yourself against that person) as to what their win rate is; unless u play specifically in the game they play in; against the same players etc. Even then the only point of that is to try and adopt some of their strategies because you believe it will improve your results.

Nor do I see the value of a winrate based on stakes, again, unless u play in those same player pools/limits that you're measuring against. Not all games are equal. Not all players are equal. It's why some of us play this game.

The question isn't: "What should my winrate be?"
The question is: "What can I do, to maximize my winrate?"
This is true if you are basically committed to playing X amount of poker no matter what.

If you are deciding how much, if any poker to play because you want to make money, it is useful to know what the potential win rates are in general or in a particular area or game. Just like if you were deciding if you wanted to drive for Uber or set up an ebay store.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:40 PM   #24442
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When there is a poker boom-- when poker is introduced to an area, a lot of really clueless players will be in the game. But after a while, they get sick of losing, go broke, their wives found out that they lost $10,000 over the last few months, poker won't be novel anymore, etc. Some will improve.

When everything settles down, you can ask if it seems reasonable that there is a steady stream of regulars who drop $60/hr in a 1/3 game for years, or whatever the number might be.
Also note, there could be instances where when players do settle down into some sort of symbiotic circle, and a crusher comes in and disrupts the player pool and walking away like a bandit.

Although I don't think such disruption could be long-term without significant change to the player pool, which could lead to its extinction depending on the size of pool.

I think that's how PLO killed a lot of smaller rooms.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:43 PM   #24443
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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
This is true if you are basically committed to playing X amount of poker no matter what.

If you are deciding how much, if any poker to play because you want to make money, it is useful to know what the potential win rates are in general or in a particular area or game. Just like if you were deciding if you wanted to drive for Uber or set up an ebay store.
Agreed - basically evaluating one's opportunity cost.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:44 PM   #24444
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Actually I think this is something where most would disagree.

FWIW, this is not the main point though.
Just for the sake of clarity, this is what I and I think the others mean.

Let's make it HU to KIS. I play Ivey and we both buy in for $1,000. I play a trained monkey and we both buy in for $1,000.

Either way, at the end of the session, the average player will have $2,000/2.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:46 PM   #24445
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
This is true. The thing is that some people think that the maximum possible win rate is "X". Other people think its "X times 2" or whatever.

The people that think its "X" already think they are maximizing their win rate and that they don't need to do anything differently because its impossible to win at a higher rate.

<head in sand>

I happen to think that if I'm at "X times 2" then there must be more I can do to get to "X times 2.5".
100% agree. Funny how there's alot of talk about not being results oriented; but in the same breath focusing on winrates (which is a result) and what it could/maybe/should/might be.

I play a fair amount of small stakes limit games (because it's what's most available to me without significant travel) and most of these games shift/change promos at certain times of the year etc. But the profit line can get significantly cut if/when the promo changes to something less optimal; than what it was before, and can seriously impact the winrate.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:57 PM   #24446
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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
This is true if you are basically committed to playing X amount of poker no matter what.

If you are deciding how much, if any poker to play because you want to make money, it is useful to know what the potential win rates are in general or in a particular area or game. Just like if you were deciding if you wanted to drive for Uber or set up an eBay store.
My argument is that a potential win/rate doesn't matter, because win-rates are results. Whatever the win rate or loss-rate, each individual player is responsible. And no player can project the win-rate without getting in there; it's irrelevant... Especially if you start out as most players as in unable to beat the game.

Interestingly there was an article I read recently about Uber; and that female drivers make more tips than male drivers. If you happen to drive for Uber and be male, you could gnash you fists at the universe, and for the unfairness of driving for Uber, or you could quit, or you could ask yourself... How would I look with some hair extensions and some make up?

Now if driving for Uber was your passion... You'd at least consider option 3.
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Old 10-28-2019, 07:59 PM   #24447
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One should expect these guys to say certain things, borderline clickbait.

Plus neither of them have put in significant amount of hours in LLSNL in probably forever.

Certain win rate is achievable as long as loss rate from other players are there. Postle's win rate was insane, but what was more absurd is the loss rate of those players in Sacramento. That game probably had the highest loss rate of any casino in the US.


To be fair, if you’re a player playing in this game and you go home and look at Postle’s play after the fact, you’re either thinking (1) he’s cheating or (2) he’s a ****ing maniac, I’m going to play in this game until he makes the wrong move at the wrong time and I’m gonna take all his moneys.

Problem with #2 was that the player wasn’t good enough to be thinking #1, so those players just kept playing and playing and waiting and waiting but the time to stack him never came because of obvious 20/20 reasons.
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Old 10-28-2019, 08:01 PM   #24448
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Originally Posted by ES2 View Post
Just for the sake of clarity, this is what I and I think the others mean.

Let's make it HU to KIS. I play Ivey and we both buy in for $1,000. I play a trained monkey and we both buy in for $1,000.

Either way, at the end of the session, the average player will have $2,000/2.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe others were talking about the "loss rate" the same way as the rake.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
The average loss per player is going to be a measure of the rake dropped, nothing more nor less.
$5 average rake per hand, 30 hands per hour = $150 raked off the table every hour.

9 players at the table, $150/9 = $16.67/hr in loss rate per player.

-$16.67 + $50 (win on average not considering rake, in which none of us would actually know the number of) = $33.33/hr won or aka win rate.

I don't think anyone is actually implying that everyone just sit around in a circle for 5 hours, pay the rake, and go home with basically the same amount of money they started with minus the rake. If that's what we think of poker is, then shush...what am I doing here?
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Old 10-28-2019, 08:09 PM   #24449
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FWIW, I would think the following terms are represented in this relationship:

-Win rate: net cash out divided by hours played.
-Rake rate: how much casino rakes per hand on average.
-Loss rate: how much someone loses after cashing out (if they do cash out) divided by hours played.

I do not think rake matters as much, just like how most when they share their win rate in this thread, they don't automatically share what the casino rake is.
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Old 10-28-2019, 08:11 PM   #24450
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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
FWIW, I would think the following terms are represented in this relationship:

-Win rate: net cash out.
-Rake rate: how much casino rakes.
-Loss rate: how much someone loses after cashing out (if they do cash out).
So if someone felts; and doesn't cash out... It doesn't impact their loss rate? I'm putting this in my results... My winrate is going WAy! Up!

(sarcasm)
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