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Old 10-24-2019, 02:13 PM   #24401
DumbosTrunk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I play evenings and daytime and I am much happier when I play during the day and wake up early/sleep at night. Even though game selection/quality suffers somewhat when I'm on a normal schedule, my mental and physical health thank me.
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Old 10-24-2019, 05:23 PM   #24402
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Mike I am curious why you don’t play late night sessions. I have a friend here in Vegas that starts her sessions at 12 noon Thursday to Monday and wonder if you do it for similar reasons.
I have a wife and son at home and just prefer to play during the daytime and be home with them in the evening or go to eat in the evening, hang with friends or whatever.
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Old 10-24-2019, 07:43 PM   #24403
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Love day time. It's nittier where I'm at but it's also a much smaller pool so you can really develop some solid reads. But I mainly do it for the same reasons as others like family and health
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Old 10-25-2019, 02:08 AM   #24404
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's a tossup, IMO, between swing shift and graveyard which is more lucrative. Swing shift catches the majority of the casual recreational players. Graveyard has fewer of those, but those who are there are often stuck and steaming, and there is a separate population of restaurant and bar workers who come in very late and gamble it up.

Day shift is best for family life and social life, but the games are least good then. Swing shift has the advantage of letting you come home to sleep with your partner, but you miss prime social/family time with them. Graveyard lets you have evenings with family and/or friends, but you wind up sleeping alone. Graveyard play also has the added disadvantage of leaving you with a relatively short window in the daytime to do things like banking, shopping, doctors' appointments, and so forth.
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Old 10-25-2019, 02:47 AM   #24405
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Used to work graveyard (job, not poker) and hated it. Yeah you can fit in the family and social time but you can go to sleep at 6am and once you get used to sleeping during the day you can sleep right through to the next night and not feel rested. Once I heard my family walking around the house, thought it was early morning still until my sister shouted "did anyone get the mail?".
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Old 10-25-2019, 04:55 AM   #24406
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Used to work graveyard (job, not poker) and hated it. Yeah you can fit in the family and social time but you can go to sleep at 6am and once you get used to sleeping during the day you can sleep right through to the next night and not feel rested. Once I heard my family walking around the house, thought it was early morning still until my sister shouted "did anyone get the mail?".
Not to mention that waking up when the sun has already set = instant depression for me. I need my vitamin D, damnit!
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Old 10-25-2019, 06:47 AM   #24407
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Not to mention that waking up when the sun has already set = instant depression for me. I need my vitamin D, damnit!
yeah, i often attempted graveyard because those sessions have the highest multiples - if you are going to get a guy start shoving blind every hand it usually happens after 2 am

but could never maintain it for more than a week straight, would just become miserable so i took on an irregular schedule with plenty of naps and short breaks
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Old 10-25-2019, 07:42 AM   #24408
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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It's a tossup, IMO, between swing shift and graveyard which is more lucrative. Swing shift catches the majority of the casual recreational players. Graveyard has fewer of those, but those who are there are often stuck and steaming, and there is a separate population of restaurant and bar workers who come in very late and gamble it up.

Day shift is best for family life and social life, but the games are least good then. Swing shift has the advantage of letting you come home to sleep with your partner, but you miss prime social/family time with them. Graveyard lets you have evenings with family and/or friends, but you wind up sleeping alone. Graveyard play also has the added disadvantage of leaving you with a relatively short window in the daytime to do things like banking, shopping, doctors' appointments, and so forth.
Surprised how little love there is for the early morning shift. You still get lots of the graveyard degens, but also get to do normal things outside poker.
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Old 10-25-2019, 10:11 AM   #24409
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Surprised how little love there is for the early morning shift. You still get lots of the graveyard degens, but also get to do normal things outside poker.
How early would you sit down, 5am?
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Old 10-25-2019, 11:12 AM   #24410
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How early would you sit down, 5am?
I saw someone sit down in my game a few years ago, fresh as a daisy, at 2am on a Sunday morning (when I had been there since about 3pm on Saturday). I packed up shortly thereafter.
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Old 10-25-2019, 12:17 PM   #24411
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I played normal biz hours for years..tryin to maintain a normal schedule while my kid was in skewl.

I after she graduated I spent a year playing swing into grave. It was my best hourly by a decent amt. When u get people drunk, chasing, tilting, having a party, basically incinerating u gunna win more. Those things happen during the day. But I have found that something special happens during the wee hours that doesnt happen very often during daytime hours
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Old 10-25-2019, 12:33 PM   #24412
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Yea, it'll depend on the room and the clientele just when the juiciest hours will be.

In Michigan we have these "Charity Rooms" all over the place. They're only allowed to sell a fixed number of chips in a day ($15,000, unchanged from a 1972 law) and must have everybody cashed out before 2am. They're located in bars and VFW hall type places, 5 minutes away from people's houses. So they're filled with regulars getting *blasted* drunk after work.

What tends to happen is that around midnight when the chips are almost sold out, people go into full on insanity mode. Crazy shoves, terrible play all around. I've had poker friends call it "magic hour". A super juicy window that you just don't see in a regular casino.

I'm sure that other places have similar location specific prime times. In FL maybe that's 3pm so that Grandpa can make it to the early bird. In Vegas it seems like I see the best games at 3am when people that aren't used to being up late are past their bedtime.
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Old 10-26-2019, 11:58 PM   #24413
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How early would you sit down, 5am?
I'd recommend that but I could only usually get there around 6 or 7.

I'm not a morning person at all but sometimes I'd randomly wake up at 4 or 5 well rested and then it was poker time
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Old 10-27-2019, 08:42 AM   #24414
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I’ve done a couple early mornings before I go into real work the last few weeks. The one casino has a big weekday night, so I went the morning after, usually getting there around 2-3am. Play is bad, some are very drunk. It’s just physically demanding because I then go to work afterwards, so I usually have to go to bed pretty early a couple nights in a row
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Old 10-27-2019, 02:01 PM   #24415
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I couldn't do that on a weekday, I'd be way too tired to make it past 3 at work. But I'm tempted one of these days to go to sleep early on a Friday and go to the cardroom real early on a Saturday morning to see what kind of drunk degen action I find.
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Old 10-28-2019, 12:42 PM   #24416
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I’ve gone to bed early quite a few times and arrived at Aria / Wynn at 2-3am. Pretty much see the same game I see at 2-3pm. I’m not sure here it’s worth the odd sleep schedule.
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Old 10-28-2019, 01:12 PM   #24417
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I’ve gone to bed early quite a few times and arrived at Aria / Wynn at 2-3am. Pretty much see the same game I see at 2-3pm. I’m not sure here it’s worth the odd sleep schedule.
i can't speak for others, but typically i need to be at work at 3pm (desk jockey), though not 3 am.
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Old 10-28-2019, 02:34 PM   #24418
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Confirmed that RunGood on 13.2 (non-Beta) version is working.

I assume 13.2 (Beta 3) had some issues with RunGood.
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Old 10-28-2019, 03:15 PM   #24419
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Watching Doug Polk talk about Postle I found this moment. He asserts that maybe live players at lower stakes can win 10bb/hr but he is skeptical of even that, because live players don't nec. report/record results accurately. Probably it can be done at the best games in the world.

EDIT: Can't get the time right in the link, but it's 39:00



now, I think Polk and some guys like him don't really understand lower stakes live very well. How transparent some people can be, to where you can legitimately Postle them at times. People punting off a buy in cuz it's time to go home.

But, obviously the guy knows poker and he has played in relatively soft live games and WSOP events, so it's not as if he is completely ignorant on the issue and has never seen purely recreational players in action. He actually has made comments in other vids that show he understands this better than some higher stakes pros. e.g. he realizes you can crudely exploit truly bad players with inconsistent bet sizing.

Anyway, I think it's a piece of the puzzle. He might be somewhat off. But to me, it is a little gravity against the 16bb/hr type claims.
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Old 10-28-2019, 03:41 PM   #24420
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One should expect these guys to say certain things, borderline clickbait.

Plus neither of them have put in significant amount of hours in LLSNL in probably forever.

Certain win rate is achievable as long as loss rate from other players are there. Postle's win rate was insane, but what was more absurd is the loss rate of those players in Sacramento. That game probably had the highest loss rate of any casino in the US.
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Old 10-28-2019, 03:56 PM   #24421
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It's pretty clear to me that he is giving his honest opinion. If the vid was "Anyone claiming more than 10bb/hr is a LIAR!!!" that might be clickbait, but I don't think this postle vid got more clicks from these comments. Well, OK, maybe it will get like 12 because of this thread.

In general, I don't think he is often trolling when giving his opinions on such matters. I think his views come from people wanting to hear the opinions and insights of a world class player. He gets clicks by being accurate.

I agree these guys don't play tons of llsnl, and stipulated that. But WSOP events are even softer and he played those. He's also watched a bunch of these Postle hands he is discussing and seen the unbelievably bad play, even for the stakes.

He's also probably smart enough to watch LATB hands, or similar games he has played in, and imagine a table full of the bad recs in those games.
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Old 10-28-2019, 04:04 PM   #24422
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't know what Doug Polk does or does not play these days.

Bart Hanson, on the other hand, has been playing regularly in Los Angeles 5-5 games (at the Bike and Hustler, where the buy-in cap is $1K) and now that he has decamped to Las Vegas, at Red Rock and at least one session at Caesars at 2-5; also in various cardrooms in places like Best Bet in Jacskonville, FL and (this week) in Austin, TX. He documents his low-stakes play on the Crush Live Poker podcast.

It is probably worth asking him what he thinks are achievable win rates in these games.

ETA: I have just checked the pertinent thread in the Crush Live Poker forums, and in 2019, after 145 hours, Bart is pulling $96/hour at 5-5 and equivalent games, or a hair over 19bb/hour.
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Old 10-28-2019, 04:12 PM   #24423
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I don't know what Doug Polk does or does not play these days.

Bart Hanson, on the other hand, has been playing regularly in Los Angeles 5-5 games (at the Bike and Hustler, where the buy-in cap is $1K) and now that he has decamped to Las Vegas, at Red Rock and at least one session at Caesars at 2-5; also in various cardrooms in places like Best Bet in Jacskonville, FL and (this week) in Austin, TX. He documents his low-stakes play on the Crush Live Poker podcast.

It is probably worth asking him what he thinks are achievable win rates in these games.

ETA: I have just checked the pertinent thread in the Crush Live Poker forums, and in 2019, after 145 hours, Bart is pulling $96/hour at 5-5 and equivalent games, or a hair over 19bb/hour.
145 hrs is a short sample. He's done the challenges every year and the results are not that high, though still impressive. He's also posted his 5/10 results a bunch and those are over 10bb/hr, but not by much. Over that current 145hr stretch, he said Jacksonville has been the softest he's found. He thinks those games are five years behind what he's used to and he thinks the 2/5 $800BI there can be beat for $70/hr+.
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Old 10-28-2019, 04:47 PM   #24424
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145 hrs is a short sample. He's done the challenges every year and the results are not that high, though still impressive. He's also posted his 5/10 results a bunch and those are over 10bb/hr, but not by much. Over that current 145hr stretch, he said Jacksonville has been the softest he's found. He thinks those games are five years behind what he's used to and he thinks the 2/5 $800BI there can be beat for $70/hr+.
I know a 2/5 $500max buy in game that can be beaten for more then $70-$100/hr so I don't doubt that about the Jax game. However, how many hours of those 145 hours could he have put in at Best Bet? He could've been at an extra soft table for 10 hours or whatever it was.

Best Bet may well be very soft but I dont put much credence into that statement unless the guy has played at least 100 hours there. After 100 hours his own win rate wont have gotten anywhere near where it will be long term, but an experienced player should be able to make an estimate of potential win rates after playing a 100ish hour sample since it will have been over multiple tables/days/times of the day. He will be able to compare the action and skill level to his normal game and go from there.
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Old 10-28-2019, 05:40 PM   #24425
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I know a 2/5 $500max buy in game that can be beaten for more then $70-$100/hr so I don't doubt that about the Jax game. However, how many hours of those 145 hours could he have put in at Best Bet? He could've been at an extra soft table for 10 hours or whatever it was.

Best Bet may well be very soft but I dont put much credence into that statement unless the guy has played at least 100 hours there. After 100 hours his own win rate wont have gotten anywhere near where it will be long term, but an experienced player should be able to make an estimate of potential win rates after playing a 100ish hour sample since it will have been over multiple tables/days/times of the day. He will be able to compare the action and skill level to his normal game and go from there.
It sounded like he did one or two sessions there, so def an insignificant sample size. I think what's important is the WR estimates overall. I think Doug's view applies to 10/20+, but Bart's experience shows 5bb/hr sets the bar too low for stakes lower than ~5/10 low cap.
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