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Old 10-15-2019, 10:12 AM   #24351
rickroll
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
By fortuitous coincidence, the 95th percentile is very close to the two-sigma level of the positive side of the normal (Gaussian) distribution. This means that breakeven is two sigmas above the average loss rate of all players.

And what is the average loss rate for all players? It is, quite simply, what every player pays on average in rake.

In my local 2-3-5 game, $6 gets taken out of every pot that sees a flop. Something like 30 hands per hour are dealt, so $180/hour goes down the slot. For a ten-handed game, this means each player is losing $18/hour, or 3.6 big blinds/hour.

95% of players lose, so the two-sigma mark is at breakeven, so a good guess at a distribution of winrates for the player pool is a Gaussian whose mean is at -3.6 bb/hour and whose standard deviation is 1.8 bb/hr.

p(w) = 1/[1.8* sqrt(2* pi)] * exp[(w + 3.6)^2/(2 * 1.8^2)]

Suppose someone has played a specific number of hours of the game, and has wons a specific number of big blinds. The frequentist best guess for their winrate is the total bets won divided by the total hours played. But if we are good Bayesians, we can use this probability distribution of winrates to compute the most likely true winrate for the player, given this distribution and their measured results, using the methodology outlined on pp. 40-43 of The Mathematics of Poker by Chen and Ankenman.
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Idk why everyone assumes someone who stops playing is broke lmao. I played full time, just thinking about playing now makes me want to vomit. Poker would be the perfect sideline for me too, but I just can't get myself the motivation to play again.

I made more in 1 real estate transaction than I did in almost 2 full years grinding full time. What a waste of time
i left the game full time after about a year despite that I was doing very well at it (well for a recent college grad's financial metric) because I was worried doors outside of poker would close if I didn't get some experience while still young enough to take an entryish level job

yet... I still assume most people who played and stopped after <3 years or >12 years indeed went broke or always had other sources of income and just wanted to curate a public image of making it through poker

it's actually something i'm admittedly deeply insecure of myself, i'll always wonder if the people i communicate here think i went busto and couldn't admit it
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Old 10-15-2019, 11:14 AM   #24352
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I wish I could follow you like you can follow a thread, best poster on 2p2 and it's not even close
Are you out of your mind???
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:31 PM   #24353
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Re: 2/5 Bankroll and hourly

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Originally Posted by CoachK25 View Post
What is a realistic hourly for a winning 2/5 player? I have heard $50 hourly is what the winning players can make. How many hours will it take to have a realistic idea of an actual hourly? I started on 7k upswing and now on 10k downswing(with small winning sessions during downswing) but is this normal?
50/hr isn’t what winning players make, it’s what the big winners will make. Most pros are making less than that. A 10k downswing is definitely not unheard of but it’s pretty unusual, especially if you are buying in for 100 bb’s.
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Old 10-15-2019, 07:04 PM   #24354
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I beat 5/5 for 70k in 2010 to 2012 having played for 2k hours. But im not a winning player. I simply lost my job, bought in with my last $800,- won some money, paid the rent and bills and kept playing for almost 2 years, never having more then 5k. Somehow never went broke and kept up the sunrun untill a met a girl whom I married.

Looking back I sometimes thought of myself as a pokerpro, instead of the gambler I really was. Its easy to trick yourself into thinking you're a superstar when you keep on winning and variance is your friend.
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Old 10-15-2019, 07:31 PM   #24355
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Re: 2/5 Bankroll and hourly

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
50/hr isn’t what winning players make, it’s what the big winners will make. Most pros are making less than that. A 10k downswing is definitely not unheard of but it’s pretty unusual, especially if you are buying in for 100 bb’s.
Hard to quote the whole thread on this, but along those lines and what AlanBostick posted. I think the concept of an "average winning player" from the original question is kind of a trap though process to begin with.

Simplified BoStick numbers because 10:
Top 50% ( 0 std deviation) = -20/hour
Top 95% (2 standard deviations) = 0/hour
Top 99.7% (3 standard deviations) = +10/hour
Top 99.99% (4 standard deviations) = +20/hour
I personally think top .5% would be something like 25/hour and top .02% is like 50/hour. Otherwise it would be impossible to make 10bb/hour unless you're the best player in a given market.

In terms of league of legends:
Top 95% is like platinum 1
Top 97% is like diamond 4
Top 99% is like diamond 3
Top 99.7% is like Master
Top 99.95% is like grandmaster
Top 99.97% is challenger

In terms of hearth stone:
Top 98% is ranks 1-5
Top 99.5% is legendary

Point from the games is to show that being in the top .5% isn't that inconceivable especially as a pro. Most people can eventually get to those ranks with a little bit of hard work and dedication. Also, there's a massive difference between .5% and .02%, where you would be among the best in the world. And then the .0001% where you are the best.

Last edited by pewpewrobot; 10-15-2019 at 07:39 PM.
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Old 10-15-2019, 08:20 PM   #24356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Or maybe the distribution of players' win rates in a given market isn't actually a Gaussian.
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Old 10-15-2019, 10:13 PM   #24357
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Or maybe the distribution of players' win rates in a given market isn't actually a Gaussian.
<3 that I'm seeing things like "gaussian" mentioned in a thread

Anyways, typically "ability" distributions look log normal-ish. We know there are losers and lognormal has to be positive but anyways it's probably lognormal looking shifted to the left. Fundamentals driving that: a) vast majority of players are relatively equally garbage but there's a limit to how garbage they are and b) once you start getting to the best players the differences get bigger and bigger. Think 50 percentile income and 54 percentile income, not a big difference. Top 5% income earner v top 1% huge.

b) is true for gaussian as well, but just not as extreme.
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Old 10-16-2019, 03:56 AM   #24358
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Are you out of your mind???
to be fair the sample size is insufficient
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Old 10-17-2019, 08:53 AM   #24359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by reaper6788 View Post
<3 that I'm seeing things like "gaussian" mentioned in a thread

Anyways, typically "ability" distributions look log normal-ish. We know there are losers and lognormal has to be positive but anyways it's probably lognormal looking shifted to the left. Fundamentals driving that: a) vast majority of players are relatively equally garbage but there's a limit to how garbage they are and b) once you start getting to the best players the differences get bigger and bigger. Think 50 percentile income and 54 percentile income, not a big difference. Top 5% income earner v top 1% huge.

b) is true for gaussian as well, but just not as extreme.
I really like thinking about it in terms of percentiles. Very eye opening for me. Whether it’s Gaussian or Logbirmal. It gets me out of the thinking that everyone is winning and winning is easy.
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Old 10-17-2019, 02:45 PM   #24360
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Haven't been able to play as much as i'd like this year due to a busy work schedule and the wife and I expecting our first child.

Here's where I stand so far though. Looking back, I've been running extremely well since about June '18 which is when I made some preflop adjustments. I had a brutal breakeven stretch through 2017-2018. I also lost my first 600 hours tracked because the poker journal app is no longer supported but those old graphs are probably somewhere in this thread.

All of it is from 1/2 300 max in Atlantic City.



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Old 10-17-2019, 07:12 PM   #24361
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Gorgalosk has a solid hourly winrate but with only 60% winning sessions. This makes me think much of the hourly is coming from some big sessions.

The local 1/3 game I play in is spread limit. Bet capped at $300. I'm a rec that wants to win money, but is the cap going to kill a lot of the edge because I can't hit monster winning sessions?
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Old 10-17-2019, 08:00 PM   #24362
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

60% winning sessions sounds fine to me.
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Old 10-17-2019, 08:10 PM   #24363
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“Only 60% winning sessions”?!? Like what % do you think is good (even though win % is largely a ridiculous statistic for cash games)?
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Old 10-17-2019, 08:55 PM   #24364
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60% seems fairly normal for a winning player. I have hovered +/- 2 % from there for the past 3.5 years.
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Old 10-17-2019, 09:13 PM   #24365
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
“Only 60% winning sessions”?!? Like what % do you think is good (even though win % is largely a ridiculous statistic for cash games)?
Lol did not intend it to sound like that. I just meant that a good edge is so small anyways that the $300 bet cap might be a big problem.
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Old 10-17-2019, 09:41 PM   #24366
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Session won % is dependent on how long your average sessions are, as well as your particular psychological tendency to leave when up big early and/or to protect profits by avoiding big pots when up.

It’s not a good metric of success because you can manipulate it, often at your own overall expense. That and ‘it’s all one long session’ anyway.
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:31 AM   #24367
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I play an average of 5 hours per session and my session win % is 63% at 17BB/hour over 1400 hours.
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Old 10-18-2019, 09:47 AM   #24368
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've personally found "session win rate" to be a convenient way for people to justify losses - "yes I'm down 3k at 1/2 but I've been unlucky because I won in 5 of those 8 sessions"

you see that kind of stuff a lot on reddit where people are asking about how neutralize luck and stuff - r/poker is great for the lols
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Old 10-18-2019, 12:26 PM   #24369
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

IMO, more important stats are average win and average loss per session.

They tell a larger story as far as whether someone should leave earlier rather than chasing losses (average loss) vs leaving too early to lock up wins (average win).
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Old 10-18-2019, 12:30 PM   #24370
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The more important stat is win rate per hour and hours. Who cares about the rest?
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Old 10-18-2019, 02:01 PM   #24371
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW, when i posted the screenshots I didn't even think about the session win %. I just posted that specific screen to show the hourly win rate. I also did some digging and found the stats and graph i posted a few years ago. There's a year or two in between these two graphs but sticking them together still might be useful.



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Old 10-18-2019, 08:19 PM   #24372
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
I play an average of 5 hours per session and my session win % is 63% at 17BB/hour over 1400 hours.
Damn, you are a crusher!!!! Nice!
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Old 10-18-2019, 09:03 PM   #24373
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not going to share hourly dollars or bb/hour. I'm doing alright.

Here is my session win % over fairly large sample with average session length of 8.5 hours.





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Old 10-18-2019, 10:27 PM   #24374
reaper6788
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I inadvertently started a winning session % moment when really I intended to discuss how a $300 bet cap at 1/3 stakes could impact winrate.

Anyways I'm just getting into live NL. Didn't track first few sessions because I wanted to focus on decisions not swings. After tracking:

4/9 winning sessions. 40.5 hours. 1/2 NL, 1/3 $1 to $300 Spread limit. Net -$192.

About -1.7 avg bb/hr w00t. Well worth the price of entertainment (especially at the 1/2 home game).

I needz volume! I also needed to not have tilted off a second buyin that one session...
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Old 10-19-2019, 04:07 AM   #24375
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Gorgalosk View Post
FWIW, when i posted the screenshots I didn't even think about the session win %. I just posted that specific screen to show the hourly win rate. I also did some digging and found the stats and graph i posted a few years ago. There's a year or two in between these two graphs but sticking them together still might be useful.



LOL @ Poker Journal. For a second I thought you are somehow still using it.
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