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Old 10-11-2019, 05:58 PM   #24301
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Estimates Ive seen are that 90%+ of all poker players lose money. A guy I know who used to work for an online poker site and had access to records, told me that its well known in the industry that more like 95% of online players lose. The money is all being funneled to a relatively very small number of people.

I find it hard to believe that so many people keep losing at poker and keep coming back but then I think about the slot and table game players. They keep coming back also.
Wrong again! The losers' money is not being funneled to the winning players. The losers' money, for the most part, is funneled down the slot next to the dealer. The winners have to struggle to get some of it into their stacks before it is all drained away.

If one has to be in the 95th percentile to beat the game at all, then beating the game for a comfortable amount is going to be uncommon indeed.
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Old 10-11-2019, 06:03 PM   #24302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Either way, those guys are no longer full time pros at least not in the room where they cant make $50k+. You just cant survive very long on that small amount of money.

I think you’re a little out of touch with reality on this one considering the median household income in the US, as of 2018, is ~62k. That means many people live, and survive, while presumably making < 50k/year

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...from-2017.html
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Old 10-11-2019, 06:25 PM   #24303
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
I think you’re a little out of touch with reality on this one considering the median household income in the US, as of 2018, is ~62k. That means many people live, and survive, while presumably making < 50k/year

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...from-2017.html
I was going to post this exact link, then temp decided I didnt care enough.
It's also a bit misleading though becasue that's just income. Not total compensation. And poker doesn't have any benefits.

Regardless, it's perfectly possible to live a nice life on 50k/year. My Mom has done it for 40+ years including raising 2 kids, and owning a house.
So, agree with the premise of your post.
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Old 10-11-2019, 08:10 PM   #24304
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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Wrong again! The losers' money is not being funneled to the winning players. The losers' money, for the most part, is funneled down the slot next to the dealer. The winners have to struggle to get some of it into their stacks before it is all drained away.

If one has to be in the 95th percentile to beat the game at all, then beating the game for a comfortable amount is going to be uncommon indeed.
Obviously a huge amount of money is taken out of the poker economy thru the rake. What I meant was that there is a large number of losing players (of various amounts) losing their money to a small number of winning players.

I wouldn't say the winners have to "struggle" to get the money. The better players get it pretty easily.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:10 AM   #24305
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you are smart and hard working you can make more than 50k a year playing 2/5. A normal job people work around 2000 hours a year. My pro friend and I were guessing that maybe 10% of pros even play 2000 hours a year. Poker players are mostly lazy and 2/5 can absolutely be crushed if you are good. I see pros play that are beating the game for more than 50k a year and they have absolutely massive leaks. I’m not excluding myself from this, I have massive leaks and I’m still appalled at the stuff I see other people doing. It’s hard to be self motivated but if someone put the same amount of work into being great at poker as a field like say law (my background) they would absolutely crush.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:19 AM   #24306
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
If you are smart and hard working you can make more than 50k a year playing 2/5. A normal job people work around 2000 hours a year. My pro friend and I were guessing that maybe 10% of pros even play 2000 hours a year. Poker players are mostly lazy and 2/5 can absolutely be crushed if you are good. I see pros play that are beating the game for more than 50k a year and they have absolutely massive leaks. I’m not excluding myself from this, I have massive leaks and I’m still appalled at the stuff I see other people doing. It’s hard to be self motivated but if someone put the same amount of work into being great at poker as a field like say law (my background) they would absolutely crush.
Yeah agree. People with decent intelligence who also have patience and discipline (and emotional control) can make good money playing full time.

PS: I didn’t know you were a lawyer. What field? Why the switch?
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:07 AM   #24307
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mostly business/contract law but did some section 1983 work (civil rights law basically). Not the thread for this so the tl;dr version is I got bored, couldn’t get into field I wanted, and I like poker.

Concerning law and on topic though, Mike is probably right about the 90-95% number. There was a 2012 case in NY and one issue in the case was if poker is a game of skill. A statistician went through millions of poker hands played on stars and said 90-95% of poker players are losing players. The case was U.S. v DiChristinia.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 10-12-2019 at 07:14 AM.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:29 AM   #24308
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Mostly business/contract law but did some section 1983 work (civil rights law basically). Not the thread for this so the tl;dr version is I got bored, couldn’t get into field I wanted, and I like poker.

Concerning law and on topic though, Mike is probably right about the 90-95% number. There was a 2012 case in NY and one issue in the case was if poker is a game of skill. A statistician went through millions of poker hands played on stars and said 90-95% of poker players are losing players. The case was U.S. v DiChristinia.
Wow that’s cool. I’ll have to try to read the opinion, if there was one. Found it:

https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-2nd-circuit/1641052.html

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 10-12-2019 at 07:35 AM.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:34 AM   #24309
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Originally Posted by Badreg2017 View Post
If you are smart and hard working you can make more than 50k a year playing 2/5. A normal job people work around 2000 hours a year. My pro friend and I were guessing that maybe 10% of pros even play 2000 hours a year. Poker players are mostly lazy and 2/5 can absolutely be crushed if you are good. I see pros play that are beating the game for more than 50k a year and they have absolutely massive leaks. I’m not excluding myself from this, I have massive leaks and I’m still appalled at the stuff I see other people doing. It’s hard to be self motivated but if someone put the same amount of work into being great at poker as a field like say law (my background) they would absolutely crush.
When I say this Im an *******. Other people say the same thing and nobody bats an eye. SMH
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Old 10-12-2019, 10:05 AM   #24310
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You implied a particular individual--that you were responding to--possessed those traits.

If I tell my wife "lots of people are lazy" then okay. If I imply that she is lazy, I'm probably going to have a bad day.
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Old 10-12-2019, 10:36 AM   #24311
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
You implied a particular individual--that you were responding to--possessed those traits.

If I tell my wife "lots of people are lazy" then okay. If I imply that she is lazy, I'm probably going to have a bad day.


You have a forgiving wife. If I implied my wife was lazy, I’d be hearing about it for the next 50ish years
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Old 10-12-2019, 11:41 AM   #24312
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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
You implied a particular individual--that you were responding to--possessed those traits.

If I tell my wife "lots of people are lazy" then okay. If I imply that she is lazy, I'm probably going to have a bad day.
No I didnt. I guess it sounded that way, but that's not what I meant. The guy who asked the question doesnt even play 2/5 full time so I'm not sure why it sounded like I was talking about him. It was a general statement.
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:21 PM   #24313
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here is an interesting experiment: Post how long you have been playing in the same poker room and how many winning regulars have stayed constant for 2+ years
I've been playing in the same room for five years, and in the same area for nine. There are three pros who have stayed constant, two losing/breakeven regulars, and two whales. There are around five people who used to play 2/5 but have dropped down to 1/3 or 1/2. Everyone else has turned over.

my point: even those who can make 50k a year will have years they make 35k and years they make 80k, and will probably live their life like t hey make 80k every year. When that bad year hits... there they go, out the door
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:31 PM   #24314
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No winning recreational regs?
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:03 PM   #24315
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Ranma4703 View Post
Here is an interesting experiment: Post how long you have been playing in the same poker room and how many winning regulars have stayed constant for 2+ years
I've been playing in the same room for five years, and in the same area for nine. There are three pros who have stayed constant, two losing/breakeven regulars, and two whales. There are around five people who used to play 2/5 but have dropped down to 1/3 or 1/2. Everyone else has turned over.

my point: even those who can make 50k a year will have years they make 35k and years they make 80k, and will probably live their life like t hey make 80k every year
I recently came back to a poker room after a 4 year break. out of the dozen or so full time grinders I remember there is only 1 left along with a new batch of full time pros.
I suspect they will be gone and replaced by new guys in another 3 years.

Majority of live pros is whoever is running hot at the time however no matter how good they are eventually the variance gets 95% of them and they get washed out of poker. DGAF talks about this a lot on his podcast.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:06 PM   #24316
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here is a more realistic experiment:

Note how many people actually track their winning/losing.

I know of two people.

If no one is tracking, perceptions are pretty irrelevant.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:18 PM   #24317
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Here is a secret:

A lot of "pros" do not rely on poker as sole income.

Those who do...you should almost feel bad for them. It's a pretty tough grind.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:37 PM   #24318
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Concerning law and on topic though, Mike is probably right about the 90-95% number. There was a 2012 case in NY and one issue in the case was if poker is a game of skill. A statistician went through millions of poker hands played on stars and said 90-95% of poker players are losing players. The case was U.S. v DiChristinia.
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Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk View Post
Wow that’s cool. I’ll have to try to read the opinion, if there was one. Found it:

https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-2nd-circuit/1641052.html
I believe the document you'll want to look at is this one which is a bit more indepth: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...cr-00414-1.pdf

If you look at figure 4 on page 27 it does appear that only the top 5 to 10% have a positive winrate. The statistician stated:

Quote:
10 percent to 20 percent of the players in any given game are good enough to win consistently . . . . And that's represented by the top 6 to 8 percent of players on” Figure 4, supra. Gov’t Expert Daubert Hr’g Tr. 86:5-9.
The dissenting econometrician who was trying to show that skill could not predominate over luck noted:

Quote:
Even top players in the 90th skill percentile appear to have, on average, suffered losses from their poker playing. Only between the 90th and 95th skill percentile does it appear that “skillful” players begin to experience a positive win rate (i.e. have a positive expected return).
Quote:
So a lot of this ranking stuff is irrelevant because skill should be winning money. And as I read the report and as I read Dr. Heeb's testimony, probably 95 percent of the people who play this online poker lose money so I don't understand where the skill is. How could it be skillful playing if you're losing money? And I don't consider it skill if you lose less money than the unfortunate fellow who lost more money.”); id. 24:25 – 25:5 (“But the other striking thing that I found was the idea that 95 percent of these people lose money. So for 95 percent -- according to the report that I read. That win rate is a negative number so 95 percent of them lose money. So, Your Honor, isn't then poker a game of chance, not skill, just on that alone?”).
The numbers can start to make things a bit confusing here:

Quote:
In his initial analysis, which included the payment of the rake, as shown in Figure 4, only 28% of players in the $5/$10 game have a positive profit Case 1:11-cr-00414-JBW Document 109 Filed 08/21/12 Page 38 of 120 PageID #: <pageID>39 over the course of a year. When the rake is added back, 37% of players have a positive profit, as shown in Figure 8.
My problem with this study as it relates to our discussion is that this winrate data in the graphs was for 5/T online.

The statistician noted:

Quote:
The only difference between playing live and playing in person is that the live game brings in some additional elements of skill which are not available to the internet player.
In regards to our winrate discussion, I completely disagree. The differences between 5/T online and live low stakes are stark. The greatest single skill one could have at 5/T online is probably game selection. While game selection is important in all formats, it's not nearly as important in live low stakes. LLSNL is a mostly casual game. 5/T online is a lot of dickwaving by grinders trying to move up the ranks to become the best. The margins in 5/T online are small, the margins in LLSNL are huge. Rake is higher in live poker. Also, online pros receive a percentage of rake back. Perhaps not so much in 5/T but certainly in the lower limits many of the "losing" pros were making quite a good living off rakeback.

Online, players multi-table which results in a higher percentage of grinders at any given table. I'm not sure how long a rec player or whale will play in an online session vs a live session (or in a given year). There are just a lot of different dynamics, such as the guy who is just walking through the casino that decides to play some poker.

The style of play is completely different. Live players have a much higher VPIP than online players. There is a lot more limping and cold-calling and way less 3-betting. Furthermore, I'm guessing the 5/T games referenced in this study are actually 6max games rather than full ring.

My point is simply that this data is not necessarily super relevant to LLSNL winrates. I'd expect the spread in Figure 4 to be even wider with winning players winning even more money and losing players losing even more in LLSNL. It also wouldn't surprise me if the top portion of the graph moved higher, resulting in an even higher percentage of winning players in live poker.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:47 PM   #24319
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my point: even those who can make 50k a year will have years they make 35k and years they make 80k, and will probably live their life like t hey make 80k every year. When that bad year hits... there they go, out the door
A player could have a bad couple months and blow his roll. Or a player could have a bad couple months, blow his roll get a job for a bit to build his roll back up. You don't know if that guy had a job, or was just taking a "vacation" or was playing somewhere else during that time or simply playing different hours than you.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:57 PM   #24320
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A player could have a bad couple months and blow his roll. Or a player could have a bad couple months, blow his roll get a job for a bit to build his roll back up. You don't know if that guy had a job, or was just taking a "vacation" or was playing somewhere else during that time or simply playing different hours than you.
You dont suddenly bust your roll in a couple of months, even when running like shyt.

If that happens you are either

1) Not sufficiently bankrolled, aka playing underrolled

2) Playing higher stakes than you are rolled for

3) Or, you simply have huge leaks in your game that is being exposed when running bad like tilting, weak mental game and so forth.
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Old 10-12-2019, 02:04 PM   #24321
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I recently came back to a poker room after a 4 year break. out of the dozen or so full time grinders I remember there is only 1 left along with a new batch of full time pros.
I suspect they will be gone and replaced by new guys in another 3 years.

Majority of live pros is whoever is running hot at the time however no matter how good they are eventually the variance gets 95% of them and they get washed out of poker. DGAF talks about this a lot on his podcast.
Grinding poker has a high turnover rate regardless. Grinders like to assume they are god's gift to poker and that past pros simply couldn't hang but I've known pros who have quit while at the top of the game. I've also known others who failed to adapt and whose margins were likely cut significantly so they left. I've known others who simply had unrealistic expectations for how much one could make in poker or simply didn't enjoy the lifestyle of a poker pro. Of course there are also many sunrunners who are here today and gone tomorrow. Still, poker is not a great long term career path for nearly anyone, regardless of ability.
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Old 10-12-2019, 02:05 PM   #24322
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You dont suddenly bust your roll in a couple of months, even when running like shyt.

If that happens you are either

1) Not sufficiently bankrolled, aka playing underrolled

2) Playing higher stakes than you are rolled for

3) Or, you simply have huge leaks in your game that is being exposed when running bad like tilting, weak mental game and so forth.
Welcome back to reality where the vast majority of LLSNL grinders are under-rolled and have huge leaks.
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Old 10-12-2019, 02:08 PM   #24323
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Welcome back to reality where the vast majority of LLSNL grinders are under-rolled and have huge leaks.
Sure, but then you arent a fulltime player/pro or even a steady winning player in the first place.

No properly skilled winning player with a stable mental game busts his roll in a couple of months. That is what fish and degens do.
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Old 10-12-2019, 03:35 PM   #24324
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Sure, but then you arent a fulltime player/pro or even a steady winning player in the first place.

No properly skilled winning player with a stable mental game busts his roll in a couple of months. That is what fish and degens do.
Theoretically that sounds great but in real life pros have all sorts of degenerate qualities. A large percentage of them are underrolled and/or are staked.

Part of my point though is that we can't necessarily differentiate between who is a pro nor how good someone is in all aspects of poker because the sample size we play with other players in live poker is so minuscule. Most rooms run multiple tables, our playing schedule is unlikely to be identical with many other grinders, and a large percentage of grinders play at multiple rooms.

In other words we really aren't going to have a very good idea of how much the other players in the room are actually winning/losing (even if we were to track exactly how much other players win/lose ever session which no one does). For the average grinder that you see who disappears in a few years you don't know how much that player actually made playing poker or necessarily if he was even a winning player. You aren't necessarily privy to all the reasons he quit poker, or even if he actually quit poker at all (perhaps he simply isn't playing where you play anymore).

A guy that grinds 40hrs a week at the poker table could easily be supporting himself with a full time job and you wouldn't even know it. The water is further muddied because players like engaging in dick waving contests both on the table and in the forums where they will flat out lie about results to further inflate their own egos.
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Old 10-12-2019, 04:21 PM   #24325
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Successful poker players don't remain in poker, even those who do move up.

They diversify so that they don't have to play poker for living.

IMO, nobody wants to play poker for living. Unless you're Postle and winning is guaranteed.
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