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Old 10-03-2019, 06:07 AM   #24251
rickroll
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How about this
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:17 AM   #24252
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KRiBaH View Post
Thats a good one. However, how do you remember who is who after few weeks? Do you put nicknames to the players in the notes?
I do the same thing in PokerJournal (which I don't think is being supported any more?) / Players feature. Nicknames for everyone (mostly regarding their appearance and who they look like) until I find out their real name.

Last session out I took some notes on someone I entered as "Billie Jean King / Androgynous". It works.

GcluelessnicknamesnoobG
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Old 10-03-2019, 11:34 AM   #24253
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How about this

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Old 10-03-2019, 12:30 PM   #24254
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KRiBaH View Post
Thats a good one. However, how do you remember who is who after few weeks? Do you put nicknames to the players in the notes?
I try to start with descriptions, board names/initials when I can hear them. The more I play with them, the more likely it is I get to know who they are .

"OWG 37" isn't very helpful, but eventually he turns into "Chester OMC" or whatever.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:03 PM   #24255
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How many hours of play?

How many hours of LIVE play is a good indicator of winrate?

For online play we can see hands played, obviously in a live setting the hands per hour is dependent on dealer speed, player speed, etc.

Don't be a smart ass and respond with 117.4. We get it, you are hysterical.

Thanks.

DL
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:17 PM   #24256
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Re: How many hours of play?

Opinions have varied over the years, but general consensus in the modern era is about tree-fiddy.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:28 PM   #24257
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Re: How many hours of play?

Quote:
Originally Posted by D_Lonnigan View Post
How many hours of LIVE play is a good indicator of winrate?

For online play we can see hands played, obviously in a live setting the hands per hour is dependent on dealer speed, player speed, etc.

Don't be a smart ass and respond with 117.4. We get it, you are hysterical.

Thanks.

DL
The general assumption is you get 25-30 hands per hour, and otherwise it works pretty much like online. The main problem is due to how slow you get the hands in compared to how fast you could be improving over the same amount of calendar time, it's difficult to get a realistic sample in, period. Because a smallish sample size for winrate is 25K hands, which is 1K hours, so like six months even playing 40 hours/week. I believe a sample for winrate that's more accurate is around 100K hands, so about 4K hours/2 years of live play at 40 hours a week for 50 weeks a year.

During those six months, you might've made hundreds or thousands of posts on 2+2, read several books, watched a lot of training videos, and so on. The other issue is that game conditions vary drastically comparing Fridays and Saturdays to the rest of the week, so even getting 40 hours a week in, your winrate should probably be divided into Friday/Saturday and all other days.

Anyways if you dig through the Offiical Winrates, Bankrolls, and Finances thread it has a lot about this in there.
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Old 10-08-2019, 12:32 PM   #24258
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Re: How many hours of play?

This topic will get trolled a lot because quite frankly it's just not a good question.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...-rate-1554098/

Rusty suggested that 10,000 is inaccurate and a huge loser has 26% chance of actually winning in that sample size.

In other words, if you play 30 hands per hour in live poker, you could play 300 hours and have no clue whether you're even a winning player.

Plus things change, even if you play exactly the same in that 300 hour span, your opponents change for various reasons.

tl;dr - true win rate is a meaningless question in live poker.
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Old 10-08-2019, 02:53 PM   #24259
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Re: How many hours of play?

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Originally Posted by Tanqueray View Post
tl;dr - true win rate is a meaningless question in poker.
Fixed it for you
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Old 10-08-2019, 02:57 PM   #24260
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Re: How many hours of play?

Dl - opinions vary wildly on this one. I have played a shitload of live winning poker. My longest breakeven is ballpark 220-240 hours (i'd have to look and I am simply too lazy to dig that sht up.

I think a more important metric is can you actually taste your edge? Are you seeing your opponents making blunders. What are you doing to exploit those mistakes?

Have you formulated a gameplan for exploiting the various regs in your game? Does that gameplan actually make sense?

what are you doing v the good regs trying to take advantage of your game?

If you are doing all of this stuff you will be nuking the competition and the w/r will come


but I think 1k hours is a reasonable sample
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Old 10-08-2019, 05:49 PM   #24261
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Re: How many hours of play?

^there’s the str8 dope from Skwid man.
I’m coming up on 1000hrs tracked and I think it’s a pretty decent barometer, but as Skwid says, you should feel your edge on a game if it exists. You will see leaky moves all over the place.
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Old 10-08-2019, 09:26 PM   #24262
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

More hours = tighter confidence interval. The math to figure it is ITT if you search confidence interval.
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:01 AM   #24263
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I am one of the 2+2 members actively participating in the collection of data from the Mike Postle video streams in the spreadsheet some of you have seen.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2047845704
Myself and my associates of the spreadsheet data and analysis believe the information will prove to be invaluable. There are additional spreadsheets containing much more additional information that will be published when they are completed. This is exhausting work and the pay really sucks. We feel however that complete and accurate information is critical in this case of "alleged" cheating. My personal focus thus far has been on the sessions that Mr. Postle played before the alleged cheating began. This is a gold mine of information and makes any subsequent case for cheating a compelling one.
My question for the 2+2 membership today is in regards to win-rate (bb/hr). What is an average win-rate for each class of player? Recreational? Regular? Professional? Does such analysis even exist anywhere?
Let me probe the question further with some #'s I created out of my head, these #'s are guesstimates and have no statistical basis behind them.
Player pool: 1 Spaz -22bb/hr, 1 Rec -8bb/hr, 3 Regs 0bb/hr, 3 good Regs 5bb/hr, 1 Pro 10bb/hr. Assuming these statistics are accurate and in isolation, the average results of the pool would be -5bb/hr. This is the type of result that I might expect after considering the table rake. Does anyone know what is the table rake at the Stones live stream?
While I was writing this up and thinking it through I have come to the conclusion that the best comparison for Postles win-rate and other statistical matters is the Stone live stream opponents themselves. This information is available on the streams and seems to me to be the best comparison of Postel's actual results. Maybe I could collect it if i had another 1000 spare hours. Thoughts? Comments?
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Old 10-09-2019, 03:13 AM   #24264
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Table rake is closer to 50bb/hr at 1/3. The BB rate goes down as the stakes go up, but at absolutely no table is it as low as 5bb/hr.

As far as the winrates, we really haven't looked at loss-rates ITT, but a rough estimate of break even for OMC and some ABC players, 5bb/hr for competitive regs who study, and 10bb/hr for pros seems supportable based on what I've seen ITT over the years.

Mind you, I hear the Stones stream game plays really deep, which likely pushes the winrates up for the winning players.
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Old 10-09-2019, 07:19 AM   #24265
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Mind you, I hear the Stones stream game plays really deep, which likely pushes the winrates up for the winning players.
Yeah, so I thought if their 1/3 game is often 3K deep then a 10x winrate might not be unreasonable. If a good winner at 1/3 does 10bb/hr, maybe a good winner on Stones stream is 100bb/hr. I think MP was doing 200bb/hr. Personally, I don't think it's about the winrate, it's that he makes ridiculous plays but never wrong.
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Old 10-09-2019, 07:39 AM   #24266
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Table rake is closer to 50bb/hr at 1/3. The BB rate goes down as the stakes go up, but at absolutely no table is it as low as 5bb/hr.

As far as the winrates, we really haven't looked at loss-rates ITT, but a rough estimate of break even for OMC and some ABC players, 5bb/hr for competitive regs who study, and 10bb/hr for pros seems supportable based on what I've seen ITT over the years.

Mind you, I hear the Stones stream game plays really deep, which likely pushes the winrates up for the winning players.
He was talking about an avg of -5BB/hr per player which puts it around -45BB/hr total at a 9 person table.
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Old 10-09-2019, 08:14 AM   #24267
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by zica View Post
Yeah, so I thought if their 1/3 game is often 3K deep then a 10x winrate might not be unreasonable. If a good winner at 1/3 does 10bb/hr, maybe a good winner on Stones stream is 100bb/hr. I think MP was doing 200bb/hr. Personally, I don't think it's about the winrate, it's that he makes ridiculous plays but never wrong.
Just no.

There is not a 1:1 relationship with stack sizes and win rate. That would imply that all hands that are played are okayed at 10x the size they were previously.

So instead of opening for 15 when I'm 300 deep, now I'd open for 150 when 3000 deep. Totally absurd.
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Old 10-09-2019, 08:34 AM   #24268
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
He was talking about an avg of -5BB/hr per player which puts it around -45BB/hr total at a 9 person table.
Ahh, that makes sense. That's what I get for posting in the middle of the night when I can't sleep.

I agree that 10x winrates is way too much of an adjustment. First off, I don't think the average stack is 3K at that game. It's deep, but it's not that deep. Secondly, it doesn't really scale that way. I'm not sure exactly how it scales and what a proper adjustment might be, but I think the idea of looking at what a standard open sizing is might help.
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Old 10-09-2019, 09:00 AM   #24269
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Re: How many hours of play?

Quote:
Originally Posted by D_Lonnigan View Post
How many hours of LIVE play is a good indicator of winrate?

For online play we can see hands played, obviously in a live setting the hands per hour is dependent on dealer speed, player speed, etc.

Don't be a smart ass and respond with 117.4. We get it, you are hysterical.

Thanks.

DL
I recently hit 2k hours, link below.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...ostcount=24226

Personally, the 1k hour seemed a reasonable sample. The 1-2k sample showed ~8% improvement, confirming a consistent sequential (and overall) w/r.

Now, getting that w/r higher is another thing … LOL
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:36 AM   #24270
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Just no.

There is not a 1:1 relationship with stack sizes and win rate. That would imply that all hands that are played are okayed at 10x the size they were previously.

So instead of opening for 15 when I'm 300 deep, now I'd open for 150 when 3000 deep. Totally absurd.
I've been wondering if people have accounted for straddles in the comparison-to-potripper graph? Like I thought I saw a Mike Postle hand in a 5/5 game that had a $40 UTG straddle out. To be fair, you can't really claim it's a $5 BB hand if there is a big straddle... (All this being said, he cheated, I'm not at all trying to argue that fact.)
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:42 PM   #24271
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I hit 3k live hours earlier this year. This spans from 2016-present. 2500+ of those hours are at 2/5 $500 cap. As you can see, my results have improved over the last chunk of hours. I feel like I have really honed in on how to exploit the guys I play against all the time with great success. I've plugged some huge leaks & I'd like to think I am expanding my edge in the games I play. Buuuuuuut I could also be running hot over the last 600 hours. Time will tell.


Hours 0-500 = 5.19 BB/hr
Hours 501-1000 = 4.34 BB/hr
Hours 1001-1500 = 5.26 BB/hr
Hours 1501-2000 = 4.41 BB/hr
Hours 2001-2500 = 5.18 BB/hr
Hours 2501-3000 = 11.73 BB/hr
Hours 3001-3073 = 16.67 BB/hr


Last edited by soxfan43; 10-09-2019 at 04:55 PM. Reason: added graph
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Old 10-09-2019, 04:53 PM   #24272
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by soxfan43 View Post
I hit 3k live hours earlier this year. This spans from 2016-present. 2800+ of those hours are at 2/5 $500 cap. As you can see, my results have improved over the last chunk of hours. I feel like I have really honed in on how to exploit the guys I play against all the time with great success. I've plugged some huge leaks & I'd like to think I am expanding my edge in the games I play. Buuuuuuut I could also be running hot over the last 600 hours. Time will tell.


Hours 0-500 = 5.19 BB/hr
Hours 501-1000 = 4.34 BB/hr
Hours 1001-1500 = 5.26 BB/hr
Hours 1501-2000 = 4.41 BB/hr
Hours 2001-2500 = 5.18 BB/hr
Hours 2501-3000 = 11.73 BB/hr
Hours 3001-3073 = 16.67 BB/hr

<can't figure out how to add my graph>
Nice results!

What do you think were the huge leaks you plugged?

Ggogogo!imoG
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Old 10-09-2019, 05:07 PM   #24273
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Nice results!

What do you think were the huge leaks you plugged?

Ggogogo!imoG
Biggest ones off the top of my head are:

1. Honed in on my pre-flop ranges. End result was tightening up, not leaking in the blinds and early position.
2. Sizing up pre-flop, especially over limps. Often to 6x or more.
3. Started 3-betting a little more linearly against common passive tables.
4. C-bet more appropriately - I used to aimlessly fire flop without a plan. (Crush Live Poker c-bet matrix was very helpful)
5. Stopped pushing draws against guys who weren't going to fold top pair
6. Learned to bet-fold or just fold in general, especially on the river. I took an attitude for awhile that I wanted to try to get bluffed. Just so I could learn to fold in spots where I should. Man I used to pay everybody off, and somehow I still won!
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Old 10-10-2019, 12:55 PM   #24274
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by soxfan43 View Post
I hit 3k live hours earlier this year. This spans from 2016-present. 2500+ of those hours are at 2/5 $500 cap. As you can see, my results have improved over the last chunk of hours. I feel like I have really honed in on how to exploit the guys I play against all the time with great success. I've plugged some huge leaks & I'd like to think I am expanding my edge in the games I play. Buuuuuuut I could also be running hot over the last 600 hours. Time will tell.


Hours 0-500 = 5.19 BB/hr
Hours 501-1000 = 4.34 BB/hr
Hours 1001-1500 = 5.26 BB/hr
Hours 1501-2000 = 4.41 BB/hr
Hours 2001-2500 = 5.18 BB/hr
Hours 2501-3000 = 11.73 BB/hr
Hours 3001-3073 = 16.67 BB/hr

Well played! That last 600 is especially nice.

Is the BI still capped at $500?
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Old 10-10-2019, 01:19 PM   #24275
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

1. As of now, where are the best locations to play 1/3 or 2/5 mostly? I remembered years ago i played at borgata at 1/2 this was a long time ago, i remember the games were pretty bad. But on the boardwalk, games were much softer. Of course this was a long time ago. But borgata is still only place to play in ac right? Heard other east coast places like boston and pennsylvania has lot of games there.



2. Is low stakes poker in vegas horrible now? Heard games are very bad. Many years ago i was there for a short while and played 1/3nl there for few months. The games there was soft... but wynn was not that soft... notice lot of regs there. But are games much tougher now that if someone plays abc, its not profitable? Or its still profitable up to 2/5?



3. To those that play 2/5nl full time im curious how much loss/profit do you have a range from? Example i could imagine if you play 2/5nl deepstack, having -3k days is certainly possible right if you buyin 1k or 1.5k? Im curious what was the biggest win a 2/5 reg has had in one day. I mean anyone here had like a 10k profit for a day at 2/5? I assume 2/5 players expect to have losing days of up to 1500 as normal and up to say 2500 profit?



4. Is there a reason why when i look at bravo live, theres just very few 5/10nl games going? I mean when i think of a live pro cash game player, i always picture them playing at least 2/5... so 5/10 and say 10/20nl and up. But if there are this few 5/10nl game that goes, wouldn't that mean very few 5/10nl+ pros? I mean when i check bravo app and look at borgata for example, they dont have any 5/10 during the week.. only 2/5. East coast rooms like mgm etc... i think you might get at most 2 games of 5/10nl only during the week? If thats the case, wouldn't that mean lot of very good pros just grind 2/5 instead? Thus making it worst for average/breakeven players playing 2/5 ?


Even when you look at vegas rooms on the app, rarely you see 5/10 besides bellagio and wynn.



5. Are there any full time 1/3 or 2/5 regs that only play 1/3 or 2/5 and never moved up in stakes? Because what they made was okay for them and game was good where they make enough and don't have plans to move up? I can imagine a 2/5 player playing some 5/10 and getting outmatched and going to play their regular 2/5 game. But are there any very good 1/3 players that can't profit at 2/5?



6. Do you think there are many 2/5 players that pull in on average 50k a year full time and done it in consisent years? Say they been doing it at least 5 years plus? Surely there has to be some right?
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