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Old 09-22-2019, 08:42 AM   #24201
Garick
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Re: 4300 roll, Which live game is best

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Originally Posted by DanSmith91 View Post
In L.A. the best structures for 1.2 are 40 to 100 max the next is 80 to 120 1/3 and then obv the beat structure 2.3 which is 1 to 300.

I am relying to be conservative as Its very hard for me to get outside income to replenish what I have however grinding this raketrap 1.2 is starting to get very annoying. Idk if The 1.3 is any better starting off with so little bbs having to shortstack, very high varience.

Is maybe sitting with 150 to 200 at 2.3 the best option? Again I would prefer to buyin full and have a full 20 buyin 6k roll for playing that game but I am.a solid player and dont rhink I should be going broke all that often buying in half or 75bbs. Idk I'm just stressed out with being at a table with 40 and 60 stacks all the time..no money on the table and although I have been beating these games for months it's too slow
4300 is over 14 full BIs for 1/3,. I think that's plenty, as long as you don't play too high variance a style, which is possible full stacked and less so with shorter stacks. Def don't play 1/2 in LA with their stupid tiny BI caps and ridic rake, imo.
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Old 09-22-2019, 03:07 PM   #24202
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Re: 4300 roll, Which live game is best

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4300 is over 14 full BIs for 1/3,. I think that's plenty, as long as you don't play too high variance a style, which is possible full stacked and less so with shorter stacks. Def don't play 1/2 in LA with their stupid tiny BI caps and ridic rake, imo.
+1

I've heard from hustler and bike employees that they want their plaza tables pulling in at least $180/hr. That's more $20+/hr we're paying. (Games from 2/3 nl to 5/10/20 nl which all have the exact same drop structure.) Looking at the commerce drop now, it seems like you're always paying $6 post flop, so not really too much different from 2/3+ except no flop no drop. It's hard to beat that game when the average stack isn't even $100.

It sounds like you have a job though, which means you can be super aggressive with your BR as you can replenish it. I'd move up to 2/3 $300 cap immediately, or maybe even the $2/300 cap 2/5 or 3/5 games. You basically wanna sit where the stacks are deepest so after you double up your BI, you can make some actual $ to beat that horrendous drop. All the players in those games are aweful and love to gamble. So as long as you can keep your wits about you through the hundred+ hrs of losing/break even stretches that will hit you from time to time even with such a soft player pool, you'll be fine. If you stay at 1/2, you're never gonna go anywhere long term.
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Old 09-23-2019, 01:31 PM   #24203
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2/3 at the bike and even the short stack 3/5 at commerce are good games and likely a way better option than those absurd short stack 1/2 games. Unless it’s changed in the past 1.5 years though, commerce 3/5 is going to be a pretty gambly and high variance game so you would have to be ready for that.
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Old 09-25-2019, 10:24 AM   #24204
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What do you say could be a common Std Deviation over hour on LLSNL?

It’s hard to know for sure, but I’m trying to figure it out for a while.

I think the best way is observing....

I noticed that I’m usually UP or down 100bb over something like 3-5 hours on the games that I play.
Could it be a real indicator?

If we think that a common std deviation for online players would be something in between of 80-90bb/100 and 100 hand are aprox. 3hours on a full ring table, it kinda make sense.

Live Poker is usually more passive than online, but people are also playing larger preflop, so it could compensate.

What is the standard deviation that you guys observe on your stack in something like 3h of play?

And what’s yours observed winrate with those data?
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Old 09-25-2019, 10:49 AM   #24205
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Originally Posted by vini.barbosa View Post
What do you say could be a common Std Deviation over hour on LLSNL?

It’s hard to know for sure, but I’m trying to figure it out for a while.

I think the best way is observing....

I noticed that I’m usually UP or down 100bb over something like 3-5 hours on the games that I play.
Could it be a real indicator?

If we think that a common std deviation for online players would be something in between of 80-90bb/100 and 100 hand are aprox. 3hours on a full ring table, it kinda make sense.

Live Poker is usually more passive than online, but people are also playing larger preflop, so it could compensate.

What is the standard deviation that you guys observe on your stack in something like 3h of play?

And what’s yours observed winrate with those data?
Over the last 150 hours of play I have 34bb/hour at 2/4. I think this is on the very nitty side btw, i havent played my best poker during this streak as my results show (about 4bb/hour) and I'm conscious I have played a very tag/nit style with adversion for high variance spots. Cause of my job I could play only once a week for 3-4 hour session this year, and I think this is way too less volume to stay sharp in the game. My goals for these last 3 months of the year and for 2020 are to study more, putting more volume in and to start avoiding the fear caused by battling other good regs or taking the right line in high variance spots. Anyone have some good advice on this? I have struggled with this a lot in the last days. I think I have a very good theory basis, but sometimes I can't pull the trigger when I need to. It can't be a bankroll issue, I play very comfortably with around a 60 buy ins roll. Maybe just a mindset problem? I would like to hear some advice from the very seasoned players in the forum.

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Old 09-25-2019, 10:56 AM   #24206
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

At 2-5, 3-5, and 2-3-5 (mostly the last), after 640 hours of current records, my hourly standard deviation is 83 bb/sqrt(hr) (variance of 6860 bb^2/hr). My winrate is currently in the crapper, as I have just gone through a two-month+ downswing that has destroyed my year's winnings, but right now it is a shameful 1.5 bb/hr. The standard error of my winrate (SD/sqrt(total hours played)) is more than twice this, so God only knows what my "true" winrate actually is.
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Old 09-25-2019, 01:10 PM   #24207
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If you do a search ITT, you'll find SDevs for winning players from. ~50-~150BBs/he, with most clustered in the 80-110 range.
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Old 09-25-2019, 01:35 PM   #24208
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Originally Posted by Twentythrees View Post
Over the last 150 hours of play I have 34bb/hour at 2/4. I think this is on the very nitty side btw, i havent played my best poker during this streak as my results show (about 4bb/hour) and I'm conscious I have played a very tag/nit style with adversion for high variance spots. Cause of my job I could play only once a week for 3-4 hour session this year, and I think this is way too less volume to stay sharp in the game. My goals for these last 3 months of the year and for 2020 are to study more, putting more volume in and to start avoiding the fear caused by battling other good regs or taking the right line in high variance spots. Anyone have some good advice on this? I have struggled with this a lot in the last days. I think I have a very good theory basis, but sometimes I can't pull the trigger when I need to. It can't be a bankroll issue, I play very comfortably with around a 60 buy ins roll. Maybe just a mindset problem? I would like to hear some advice from the very seasoned players in the forum.

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Thank you! How are you tracking your std deviation? Observation only or you use any app that helps on that?
I have a really simular situation than you.
A job and play once or maybe twice a week.

If the tag/nit is working for you, maybe you just don’t have to change it.
The more you play, the more you study, more confortable you will be to opening your ranges and play better in higher variance spots.

Studying the mental game could help too.
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Old 09-25-2019, 01:37 PM   #24209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
At 2-5, 3-5, and 2-3-5 (mostly the last), after 640 hours of current records, my hourly standard deviation is 83 bb/sqrt(hr) (variance of 6860 bb^2/hr). My winrate is currently in the crapper, as I have just gone through a two-month+ downswing that has destroyed my year's winnings, but right now it is a shameful 1.5 bb/hr. The standard error of my winrate (SD/sqrt(total hours played)) is more than twice this, so God only knows what my "true" winrate actually is.


Thank you for the replying too...
How you do the tracking?
Taking notes of all hands involved?
Or there is any calculation that can be done?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
If you do a search ITT, you'll find SDevs for winning players from. ~50-~150BBs/he, with most clustered in the 80-110 range.


Oh, right. Thanks for the info.
Just went through some pages, and didn’t see, but it’s true that I didn’t have put much effort on that.

Sorry.
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Old 09-25-2019, 02:04 PM   #24210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vini.barbosa View Post
Thank you! How are you tracking your std deviation? Observation only or you use any app that helps on that?
I have a really simular situation than you.
A job and play once or maybe twice a week.

If the tag/nit is working for you, maybe you just don’t have to change it.
The more you play, the more you study, more confortable you will be to opening your ranges and play better in higher variance spots.

Studying the mental game could help too.
I have an app that tracks my results.
Tag is working for me, but I feel the need to get better at the game and stay ahead of the curve, and winning 4/bb over a small sample is basically nothing. I could easy be a break even player or a light losing player in the long run. Another argument of getting better is that I play in a very small player pool, the skill level is becoming better every year and most people know how I'm playing now and they know that I play mostly for value when the pot is getting big and they pay me off only in cooler situation. The only thing that I can do right now is getting out of my tight comfort zone and start opening my range and battle more for pots by barreling and bluffing. I'm very honest with my play and I know that my understanding of theory is good. Have red a lot of books and got a subscribe to clp 1 year ago, looking 1 video a week or something like that. I'm a pretty decent hand reader too, I know combinatorics, barreling texture, 3bets range and all the stuff. I honestly never studied gto and that stuff, cause I think that exploitative play will always be the better play for llsnl, but maybe I'm wrong and I should rethink about it. The problem with me is really getting out of my comfort zone and start doing these plays for real, I have the roll for this but I simply stop myself a lot of the time. Is/was someone in the same campvand could give me some advice? I think my problem is a mental one, not much to do with the game.

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Old 09-25-2019, 02:13 PM   #24211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vini.barbosa View Post
Thank you for the replying too...
How you do the tracking?
Taking notes of all hands involved?
Or there is any calculation that can be done?.
I keep records of every session I play: start time, end time, amount bought in, amount cashed out. I have maintained spreadsheets of this information for all my live play over twenty years.

On pages 60-61 of Gambling Theory and Other Topics Mason Malmuth gives formulas for computing win rate and variance, given a dataset of session lengths and session results.

Overall winrate is easy: it is the sum of all your session results divided by the sum of all your session durations.

Variance is a bit of a pain

V = sum(w[k]*w[k]/t[k])/N - (W*W/N)*sum(t[k])

Where V is the variance (the square of your standard deviation) that you are computing,
w[k] is the amount won (lost) in your kth session
t[k] is the duration of your kth session
N is the total number of sessions,
and W is your average win-rate. W = sum(w[k])/sum(t[k])

I keep separate spreadsheet pages for the various games and levels that I play on which I compute my variances in those games.
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Old 09-25-2019, 02:33 PM   #24212
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Originally Posted by Twentythrees View Post
I have an app that tracks my results.
Tag is working for me, but I feel the need to get better at the game and stay ahead of the curve, and winning 4/bb over a small sample is basically nothing. I could easy be a break even player or a light losing player in the long run. Another argument of getting better is that I play in a very small player pool, the skill level is becoming better every year and most people know how I'm playing now and they know that I play mostly for value when the pot is getting big and they pay me off only in cooler situation. The only thing that I can do right now is getting out of my tight comfort zone and start opening my range and battle more for pots by barreling and bluffing. I'm very honest with my play and I know that my understanding of theory is good. Have red a lot of books and got a subscribe to clp 1 year ago, looking 1 video a week or something like that. I'm a pretty decent hand reader too, I know combinatorics, barreling texture, 3bets range and all the stuff. I honestly never studied gto and that stuff, cause I think that exploitative play will always be the better play for llsnl, but maybe I'm wrong and I should rethink about it. The problem with me is really getting out of my comfort zone and start doing these plays for real, I have the roll for this but I simply stop myself a lot of the time. Is/was someone in the same campvand could give me some advice? I think my problem is a mental one, not much to do with the game.

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Maybe you are afraid? Like, afraid of trying something "out of your own safe tag box" at the table, and fail in front of the table?

Just a thought, as i have battled with this to some degree myself. Putting pressure on myself, and have the urge to play "perfectly" aka not doing any plays that could make me look stupid in the eyes of other players.

Like you, i never had any problems winning right off the bat when i started playing live for like 8-9 years ago. But it wasnt until i started working on open my game up in some spots, and just go with a play if i believe it was +EV forgetting about what others may think of me that my game/winrate really started to skyrocket.

For me personally i had the biggest battle regarding those issues maybe 3-4 years ago, but it is still an ongoing process i have to fight every other game i play. The perfection voice in my head still try to talk to me on a regular basis, so i have to be aware of it so i dont fall back into old habits.

I dont know if any of this sounds familiar to you, but i agree that your issue/roadblock is in your mental game somewhere. You just have to be honest enough with yourself and the reflections you are doing to find it.
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Old 09-25-2019, 04:20 PM   #24213
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Try searching in this thread on "SDev" and SD, as well "standard dev" and standard deviation. Also search on "sqrt" to find out how to do the calculations.
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Old 09-25-2019, 09:11 PM   #24214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
Maybe you are afraid? Like, afraid of trying something "out of your own safe tag box" at the table, and fail in front of the table?

Just a thought, as i have battled with this to some degree myself. Putting pressure on myself, and have the urge to play "perfectly" aka not doing any plays that could make me look stupid in the eyes of other players.

Like you, i never had any problems winning right off the bat when i started playing live for like 8-9 years ago. But it wasnt until i started working on open my game up in some spots, and just go with a play if i believe it was +EV forgetting about what others may think of me that my game/winrate really started to skyrocket.

For me personally i had the biggest battle regarding those issues maybe 3-4 years ago, but it is still an ongoing process i have to fight every other game i play. The perfection voice in my head still try to talk to me on a regular basis, so i have to be aware of it so i dont fall back into old habits.

I dont know if any of this sounds familiar to you, but i agree that your issue/roadblock is in your mental game somewhere. You just have to be honest enough with yourself and the reflections you are doing to find it.
I think you pretty much nailed it. I wanted to post a long response, but I think this is a little off topic here, so I'll send you a private message. I hope you find the time to read it.
Thank you for your response.

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Old 09-25-2019, 09:59 PM   #24215
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I switched to tracking stats on my phone for the last 475 hours. My standard deviation is 63.63 bb/hr.

Last edited by Badreg2017; 09-25-2019 at 10:04 PM.
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Old 09-27-2019, 05:45 AM   #24216
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As I understand it, if all we're doing is inputting session totals at the end of a day, we won't have accurate readings for standard deviation. We'd need to input your +/- every hour of play over a large sample size to have reliable info on SDV/Hr, or make sure our sessions are always the exact same length.

Ryan Fee discussed live standard deviation compared to online. He said online should be ~60-80 bb/100 hands, where live could be around 150 or 180 in deeper games. The point is, it's really hard to measure in live poker. Most people who ask do it because they want to know how long they can run bad for and how big a downswing can get. In short, that all depends on your skill and that of your player pool. Examples I can pull from of well known players who can be trusted, at least somewhat...

1) Bort Hanson. There's a record somewhere on CLP of him discussing his 4.5k hrs of Commerce 5/10 $1.5k cap, no straddles & this was before the Euros took over and the games had lots of recs. He went on two ~500 hr break even stretches and says his worst downswings were ~10k. He beat the game for over 10bb/hr in that sample size.

2) A regular in this thread and on 2+2, Squidface. If you look back, you'll find him talking about a 600 hr BE stretch.

3) Ed Miller. In his book, "the course" he explains how 5k swings at 2/5 are normal and he claims to know some pros that lost between 10-15k playing 2/5.

I personally find that last part slightly extreme, but have experienced a 9.2K drop myself recently at 5/5 and a BE stretch of ~550 hrs (The game plays as 5/5/10 ~30% of the time). I can't complain though because my run-hot over the past 250 hr more than makes up for it. I do have some friends that are dealing with pretty severe negative variance though, like 1k hrs of BE. This one is coming from a guy who'd been living off the game for several years prior and said he'd never experienced something so brutal. I track my results in google sheets and when graphing can create a trendline that does the google sheets version of standard deviation in a visual form... I guess google it if you want to see how it's done. Anyways, at the most extreme points, my graph has been around 1800bb+/- the trend, though on average it seems like I'm within 1000bb of what it shows.
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Old 09-27-2019, 06:44 AM   #24217
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See Post #4 by BruceZ explaining how to estimate standard deviation when you have variable session lengths.

http://https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/standard-deviation-how-does-live-player-calculate-575437/
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Old 09-27-2019, 01:03 PM   #24218
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BruceZ's result is the same that I gave above, from Gambling Theory and Other Topics
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Old 09-27-2019, 04:44 PM   #24219
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BruceZ's result is the same that I gave above, from Gambling Theory and Other Topics
Sorry, I was just replying to Quantum's first paragraph and didn't read that far back. I would have acknowledged you.

BruceZ's presentation using LaTeX is quite a bit easier read and the thread has some interesting discussion.
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Old 09-27-2019, 09:34 PM   #24220
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Originally Posted by Twentythrees View Post
I have an app that tracks my results.
Tag is working for me, but I feel the need to get better at the game and stay ahead of the curve, and winning 4/bb over a small sample is basically nothing. I could easy be a break even player or a light losing player in the long run. Another argument of getting better is that I play in a very small player pool, the skill level is becoming better every year and most people know how I'm playing now and they know that I play mostly for value when the pot is getting big and they pay me off only in cooler situation. The only thing that I can do right now is getting out of my tight comfort zone and start opening my range and battle more for pots by barreling and bluffing. I'm very honest with my play and I know that my understanding of theory is good. Have red a lot of books and got a subscribe to clp 1 year ago, looking 1 video a week or something like that. I'm a pretty decent hand reader too, I know combinatorics, barreling texture, 3bets range and all the stuff. I honestly never studied gto and that stuff, cause I think that exploitative play will always be the better play for llsnl, but maybe I'm wrong and I should rethink about it. The problem with me is really getting out of my comfort zone and start doing these plays for real, I have the roll for this but I simply stop myself a lot of the time. Is/was someone in the same campvand could give me some advice? I think my problem is a mental one, not much to do with the game.

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Try showing a bluff. You might get that "I thought you played tight" comment and then use your new image to cash in when you hit. This actually worked once for me
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Old 09-28-2019, 07:35 AM   #24221
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Try showing a bluff. You might get that "I thought you played tight" comment and then use your new image to cash in when you hit. This actually worked once for me
When you play with the same 3-4 players every time at the table, showing a bluff once in a while is not enough. You really need to open up your game more and starting fight more for pots.


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Old 09-28-2019, 01:03 PM   #24222
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1/3 stat for this year. I play almost entirely on weekday afternoon.





Might play a bit more again, hence the increase in activity.

Game has some handicaps, $100 - $300 BI ($500 after 5pm), $300 max bet, 1 bet and 3 raises maximum each street.
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Old 09-28-2019, 03:50 PM   #24223
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$100-$300 max buy in but max raised to $500 after 5PM? Now that's a new one I haven't seen before. Id love to hear their reasoning for that.
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Old 09-28-2019, 06:51 PM   #24224
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I would imagine old man coffees don’t want to get “pushed around by big stack”
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Old 09-28-2019, 08:45 PM   #24225
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It's not poker when someone makes big bets.
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