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Old 09-20-2019, 09:38 PM   #24176
meale
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just wanted to point out briefly that everyone ITT should remain seriously open minded when it comes to possible attainable winrates. Many of you may remember me from when I was a live pro and regged this thread + LLSNL pretty frequently. Anyway I played about 2300 hours live around 2017-2018 around 2/5 level and won At about 7bb/hr over that sample. I was pretty certain I was the best reg in all the games I played in and had many people say this same thing to me. I was convinced that my winrate was about as high as you could get in super high rake environments and that the winrate bottleneck was rake and not my ability as a poker player.

The past couple years I've been playing online full time and since the beginning of the year have been studying every single day, playing every day, I've spent thousands on coaching, and currently my main game online is 1knl.

When I look back on who I was as a poker player when I played live full time, I genuinely cringe at just how bad I was. This guy who was one of the biggest winners and thought he was the best player in the city, and quite frankly probably was, the guy winning consistently at 7bb/hour in high rake environments, was truly awful at poker.

I haven't touched poker chips in what feels like nearly 2 years but I sometimes fantasize about the carnage I could cause on the live felt if I played in those same games with the knowledge about the game that I now have.

What I found was interesting was that I genuinely felt It was not possible to pull more money out of those games than I was at the time. If I played against that guy today I would immediately tag him as the mark.

TL:dr

Don't underestimate how little you know about poker (this applies to literally everyone playing LLSNL) and don't underestimate the sheer cognitive dissonance and biases you're likely to harbour if you believe X to be the be all and end all.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:44 AM   #24177
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by meale View Post
Don't underestimate how little you know about poker (this applies to literally everyone playing LLSNL) and don't underestimate the sheer cognitive dissonance and biases you're likely to harbour if you believe X to be the be all and end all.
That's the thing. I know my winrate over the thousands of hours I have played in my game, but in spite of that, i don't feel like I'm elite. Sometimes I really question my game, despite my results. I'm better than most people I play with, sure, but I have so much further to go. I'm nowhere near playing optimally.

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Old 09-21-2019, 02:25 AM   #24178
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Meale you were a live pro for like 30 days before giving up and thought $100k/year was a drop in the bucket at 2/5.

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Always impressive stuff from you mate. To make nearly 100k in < 1k hours is absolutely mental. I'd love to see what you could do if you play 2k hours a year and play max peak hours... Like idk how much you make @ your job, but with results like these, I'd verrryy seriously consider going full time!
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Yeeeah, the difference is though that even if things get tougher for Diz, he'll still make plenty of cash. If his hourly drops, he'll prob still be able to clear 100k EZ.
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Old 09-21-2019, 02:26 AM   #24179
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I could post a 7-800 hr graph but I'm sure you'll say that's not significant. The 1/2 games in my room are not even close to deep. Half the table buys in for $60-$100. Id be willing to bet that I haven't won more than 3-5 hands of 1/2 where we were over 100BBs deep.
if thats the case why are u playing in that room? back in reno, where u can match the biggest stack just like Greektown in detroit, theres some pretty big stacks in the $1-2 NL. here in scottsdale, the buyin is $100-600 in the lowest stakes $2-3 NL, and most buyin $600, im about the ONLY person buying in $100 because everyone in scottsdale is insanely wealthy compared to the US population in general. id find a better room with better action if i were u
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Old 09-21-2019, 03:02 AM   #24180
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if thats the case why are u playing in that room? back in reno, where u can match the biggest stack just like Greektown in detroit, theres some pretty big stacks in the $1-2 NL. here in scottsdale, the buyin is $100-600 in the lowest stakes $2-3 NL, and most buyin $600, im about the ONLY person buying in $100 because everyone in scottsdale is insanely wealthy compared to the US population in general. id find a better room with better action if i were u
to make a steady $1000 per week on average, u need to put in at least 50 or so hours per week, and to only sit with the minimum when u first sit til u watch how the others are playing. i cant tell u how many people lost their buyins quickly because they could not get over the idea of always buying in for the max. u need to be the ONLY person buying in for less, and then all the money will go to you alone. u dont want the others to shortstack too, or your edge disappears
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Old 09-21-2019, 03:02 AM   #24181
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oops. was trying to edit my post, not type it twice. sorry
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Old 09-21-2019, 06:22 AM   #24182
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Meale you were a live pro for like 30 days before giving up and thought $100k/year was a drop in the bucket at 2/5.
I was a live pro for over a year before graduating to more lucrative games. I have no idea what point youre trying to prove with your second point... 100k / year playing 2/5 live is extremely possible... that was kind of my point.
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Old 09-21-2019, 07:02 AM   #24183
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I was a live pro for over a year before graduating to more lucrative games. I have no idea what point youre trying to prove with your second point... 100k / year playing 2/5 live is extremely possible... that was kind of my point.
Why did you make the switch from live to online?
Why are you no longer playing live at all?

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currently my main game online is 1knl.
Where does a game like that exist?
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Old 09-21-2019, 07:26 AM   #24184
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I can’t speak to 5/10, and even after a year of grinding 2/5 full time my sample isn’t huge, but based on what I’ve seen and experienced I would take the over on 10bb/hr being achievable for a pro who both studies and is disciplined at the table. It also depends on how many hours they are playing. I’m over 10bb/hr hour this year at 2/5, but Florida poker kinda blows in the summer so in July and August I played a little less than 120 hours per month. If I forced myself to stay in crappy games more often, my winrate would definitely suffer.
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Old 09-21-2019, 07:26 AM   #24185
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1knl is 5/10 online
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Old 09-21-2019, 07:31 AM   #24186
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've never seen 1k games run on PokerStars, highest games I sometimes see running are 500 zoom.
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Old 09-21-2019, 07:37 AM   #24187
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Originally Posted by sevencard2003 View Post
if thats the case why are u playing in that room? back in reno, where u can match the biggest stack just like Greektown in detroit, theres some pretty big stacks in the $1-2 NL. here in scottsdale, the buyin is $100-600 in the lowest stakes $2-3 NL, and most buyin $600, im about the ONLY person buying in $100 because everyone in scottsdale is insanely wealthy compared to the US population in general. id find a better room with better action if i were u
I don't play 1/2 anymore except for the times I'm waiting for a 2/5 seat. There are no 1/2 games in my area that are much deeper. The max buy in at most rooms in my area for 1/2 is $200. Its actually $300 where I play and there's a few that do buy in max, but the avg has to be around $100.

I can only imagine what a really good player could do in a deep 1/2 game.
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Old 09-21-2019, 07:47 AM   #24188
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

10bb per hour live is definitely doable. It isn't easy though, and it requires a large time investment studying and working on your game. The vast majority of winning poker players will never achieve this metric, as is evidenced by the plethora of bad advice you often hear from even the most frequent posters right here in this forum.


I'm just north of 7000 hours of live poker now, starting from 2-5, and have worked my way up to 20-40 live games over the past 7 years. At every stake I've played I've always managed at least 10bb/hour, (except at 10-20+, where I'm at 9bbs)

Maybe I've run incredibly well during that time frame (i probably have to some extent) but I also know that I've put in the work and study to improve.

I started off like most, playing highly exploitative poker, which served me well all the way to 10-20nl. Unlike most, however, I played what some would call a more lag style, although it is what I used to think was a balanced approach. (So I thought at the time, until I came to realize I was actually spewing in certain spots and had horrendous leaks). Despite this, I still managed 10bbs an hour at 5-10 and lower, but struggled at 4-5bbs at high stakes.

2 years ago, I decided to study utilizing gto solvers, completely revamping my game. It was eye opening. With newfound knowledge, I began to plug my leaks and beat some of the best pros in my area. (Some of which are well known poker coaches)

I'll finish this post by saying that, this year I was forced into grinding low stakes 2-5 again for a few off days of the week due to a recent move for commute reasons. I decided that for practice and as an experiment to compare winrates, I would try to emulate playing an offensive GTO style as much as possible, whilst maintaining exploitative adjustments when defending.

Knowing advanced theory and the default baseline (along with some incredible rungood) has thus far netted me 26bb/hr over the past 450 hours at 2-5.

Coming back to llsnl and seeing the competition, I know poker is alive and well. The dream is still there if you aspire to be a poker pro. But it aint easy, and the moment you close yourself off to new ideas or think you have perfected your strategy, is the moment you begin to stagnate.
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Old 09-21-2019, 09:53 AM   #24189
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan View Post
Why did you make the switch from live to online?
Why are you no longer playing live at all?



Where does a game like that exist?
Biggest game where I lived was 2/5 and I wanted bigger games.

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I've never seen 1k games run on PokerStars, highest games I sometimes see running are 500 zoom.
These games run on many sites, and Stars has much higher than 1knl sometimes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
10bb per hour live is definitely doable. It isn't easy though, and it requires a large time investment studying and working on your game. The vast majority of winning poker players will never achieve this metric, as is evidenced by the plethora of bad advice you often hear from even the most frequent posters right here in this forum.


I'm just north of 7000 hours of live poker now, starting from 2-5, and have worked my way up to 20-40 live games over the past 7 years. At every stake I've played I've always managed at least 10bb/hour, (except at 10-20+, where I'm at 9bbs)

Maybe I've run incredibly well during that time frame (i probably have to some extent) but I also know that I've put in the work and study to improve.

I started off like most, playing highly exploitative poker, which served me well all the way to 10-20nl. Unlike most, however, I played what some would call a more lag style, although it is what I used to think was a balanced approach. (So I thought at the time, until I came to realize I was actually spewing in certain spots and had horrendous leaks). Despite this, I still managed 10bbs an hour at 5-10 and lower, but struggled at 4-5bbs at high stakes.

2 years ago, I decided to study utilizing gto solvers, completely revamping my game. It was eye opening. With newfound knowledge, I began to plug my leaks and beat some of the best pros in my area. (Some of which are well known poker coaches)

I'll finish this post by saying that, this year I was forced into grinding low stakes 2-5 again for a few off days of the week due to a recent move for commute reasons. I decided that for practice and as an experiment to compare winrates, I would try to emulate playing an offensive GTO style as much as possible, whilst maintaining exploitative adjustments when defending.

Knowing advanced theory and the default baseline (along with some incredible rungood) has thus far netted me 26bb/hr over the past 450 hours at 2-5.

Coming back to llsnl and seeing the competition, I know poker is alive and well. The dream is still there if you aspire to be a poker pro. But it aint easy, and the moment you close yourself off to new ideas or think you have perfected your strategy, is the moment you begin to stagnate.
Yeah this, most people who are able to win at 10bb/hr at 2/5 move onto bigger and better games where their hourly will be higher.
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Old 09-21-2019, 11:09 AM   #24190
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The vast majority of winning poker players will never achieve this metric, as is evidenced by the plethora of bad advice you often hear from even the most frequent posters right here in this forum.
So just tell me all the things that I say that are wrong so I can fix them.

(Not sarcasm)
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Old 09-21-2019, 11:22 AM   #24191
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not in this thread. Keep it on topic, please, and take the strat to strat threads.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:36 PM   #24192
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Oh, I wasn’t meaning here. I was meaning on strat threads. Or better yet, directly to my DM’s so nobody else improves.

Winrate discussion cycle since dawn of man:

Player a: what is the max winrate one can achieve at x stake?
Player b: crusher status is 10-12bb+
Player c: about tree-fiddy
Player d: 10-12bb/hr is ridiculous. No one can keep that up long term.
Player e: 10-12 bb/hr is the low end of crushing if you just free your mind man...
Player a: ok, thanks. I’m gonna quit my job now and free my mind.
Player f: here are my stats for the last 1200 hours
Player e: start meditating and your numbers will improve.
Player GG: don’t listen to them player F, you’re doing great. But if you want to reduce variance, I’m going to DM you some limping strategies.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:17 PM   #24193
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HLB - Nice Numbers sir. As someone who has won greater than 10 bigs per over a large sample I can say I play 2/5 pretty well. However, I have played with a couple of players who played that much better than I and I believe in my heart of hearts their w/r at those games are quite high. Most people dont know what they dont know - because of this they can not fathom someone winning that much more than they believe possible.

jus sayin
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Old 09-21-2019, 02:01 PM   #24194
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Ya, those are very impressive stats HLB.
For the record, I do believe that the absolute best of the best can maintain 15bb/hr+ long term at 2/5 (my current game). Anything over 10 is extremely difficult though and requires taking your game seriously. The best players I know are around 12bb/hr and are constantly studying and using solvers to plug leaks.
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Old 09-21-2019, 02:15 PM   #24195
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XtraScratch nailed it. I can delete thread now and just replace it with that summary poast.
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Old 09-21-2019, 02:31 PM   #24196
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If anyone had the time I think reading this thread from beginning to end would be an eye opening experience for many (if it hadn't already happened).

Quote:
Originally Posted by meale View Post
I was a live pro for over a year before graduating to more lucrative games. I have no idea what point youre trying to prove with your second point... 100k / year playing 2/5 live is extremely possible... that was kind of my point.
My point was that 100k is not a given and shouldn't even be expected. If you've followed Dizzy at all you would know how rapidly things changed and I found the "100k EZ" line to be a funny choice of words. Sorry if tone was dickish.

The broader point was people always want to extrapolate from the sun run good times and as this thread shows and most local card rooms, the good times don't last. Sure some stick around, move up etc. but in the slow world that is live poker variance is generally the driving force whether that be positive or negative.
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Old 09-21-2019, 02:36 PM   #24197
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Knowing advanced theory and the default baseline (along with some incredible rungood) has thus far netted me 26bb/hr over the past 450 hours at 2-5.
That is sick. What would you say average stack depth is on the table at any given time over that sample? You seem to be one of the few who reached escape velocity and still occasionally chime in which is appreciated.
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Old 09-21-2019, 08:17 PM   #24198
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4300 roll, Which live game is best

In L.A. the best structures for 1.2 are 40 to 100 max the next is 80 to 120 1/3 and then obv the beat structure 2.3 which is 1 to 300.

I am relying to be conservative as Its very hard for me to get outside income to replenish what I have however grinding this raketrap 1.2 is starting to get very annoying. Idk if The 1.3 is any better starting off with so little bbs having to shortstack, very high varience.

Is maybe sitting with 150 to 200 at 2.3 the best option? Again I would prefer to buyin full and have a full 20 buyin 6k roll for playing that game but I am.a solid player and dont rhink I should be going broke all that often buying in half or 75bbs. Idk I'm just stressed out with being at a table with 40 and 60 stacks all the time..no money on the table and although I have been beating these games for months it's too slow

Last edited by Garick; 09-21-2019 at 10:43 PM. Reason: Added some returns to break up the wall of text
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Old 09-21-2019, 09:05 PM   #24199
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
If anyone had the time I think reading this thread from beginning to end would be an eye opening experience for many (if it hadn't already happened).



My point was that 100k is not a given and shouldn't even be expected. If you've followed Dizzy at all you would know how rapidly things changed and I found the "100k EZ" line to be a funny choice of words. Sorry if tone was dickish.

The broader point was people always want to extrapolate from the sun run good times and as this thread shows and most local card rooms, the good times don't last. Sure some stick around, move up etc. but in the slow world that is live poker variance is generally the driving force whether that be positive or negative.
Yeah ofc. My saying that about dizzy specifically was obviously wrong. FK you diz I really believed you were the Messiah. But to the point about 100k at 2/5 it's just 10bb/hr for 2k hours which is way higher wr and more volume than most will achieve in a year but I think we've proven it's very doable.
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Old 09-21-2019, 09:16 PM   #24200
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Yeah ofc. My saying that about dizzy specifically was obviously wrong. FK you diz I really believed you were the Messiah. But to the point about 100k at 2/5 it's just 10bb/hr for 2k hours which is way higher wr and more volume than most will achieve in a year but I think we've proven it's very doable.
</3
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