Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-18-2019, 05:17 PM   #24126
7weeks2days
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 895
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
@ 7weeks

This is the claim that sticks out for me, and I think it's fair to ask for evidence of this.

I mean, if your unraked 1/2 NL home game plays 1000bb deep, ok, whatever, all bets are off for potential ceiling. But that's not a typical LLSNL game (at least if you look at most of the LLSNL threads in this forum).

GcluelessclaimsnoobG
Yeah I don't blame you. It's an interesting claim combined with an even more interesting insult. Why would someone be mad at someone asking for evidence or some form of proof?
7weeks2days is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:19 PM   #24127
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
MIkestarr, can you you update us on what your winrate claims are that GG etc disagree with you about?
The conversation was about people making the "right plays" and some not even knowing what the right plays are even though they think they do. I basically said that if you aren't near the following win rates, that you aren't making the right plays often enough because I think these numbers are attainable.

15 BBs for 1/2
12 BBs for 2/5
10 BBs for 5/10

Honestly I think win rate ceilings can be even higher in the right conditions. I didnt say those are my win rates. I said I think the ceilings are in that area.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:20 PM   #24128
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zica View Post
What's the average age of your opponent?
When you factor in their heart transplants it significantly reduces the median so that's an unfair question.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:26 PM   #24129
7weeks2days
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 895
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
The conversation was about people making the "right plays" and some not even knowing what the right plays are even though they think they do. I basically said that if you aren't near the following win rates, that you aren't making the right plays often enough because I think these numbers are attainable.

15 BBs for 1/2
12 BBs for 2/5
10 BBs for 5/10

Honestly I think win rate ceilings can be even higher in the right conditions. I didnt say those are my win rates. I said I think the ceilings are in that area.
So we aren't talking about actual win rates. We are talking about what we think potential win rate ceilings are?
7weeks2days is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:31 PM   #24130
thegibson
old hand
 
thegibson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,338
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In florida during daytime average age is about 45-50..at night it's closer to 35ish I would say

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
thegibson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:34 PM   #24131
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,921
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
I don't have a dog in this fight and have no interest in arguing for either side but here are my results at 1/2 and 1/3 before I moved up to higher stakes

1/2NL: 826 hrs, +21,026 for 12.73bb/hr
1/3NL: 98 hrs, +5,950 for 20.24bb/hr

Weighted average BB = 2.106

Totals: 924 hours, +26,976 for 13.87bb/hr

https://imgur.com/a/iTJq2y4

sorry its only 924 hours instead of 1k+ but it's all I can provide

now I play higher stakes (barely, almost no volume anymore) and am on a ~700 hour break even stretch. poker, variance, blah blah

also I was bad at poker for a lot of these hours (prob still am) so I was certainly on a heater for those curious.
don't overhype yourself. you're hourly is actually 13.86bb/hr we round down, son.

j/k, thats some solid work.
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:34 PM   #24132
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zica View Post
What's the average age of your opponent?
Depends on when and where I play and what season it is. When the snowbirds come back the avg age rises dramatically as do win rates. People have no idea how seasonal S. Florida is unless you experience it. My win rate is about 50% higher during snowbird season. They might as well change the name of S. Florida to Nittsburgh during the summer.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:35 PM   #24133
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by thegibson View Post
In florida during daytime average age is about 45-50..at night it's closer to 35ish I would say

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Unless you are playing any limit game. Then the avg age is about 85.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:36 PM   #24134
thegibson
old hand
 
thegibson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,338
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
They might as well change the name of S. Florida to Nittsburgh during the summer.
Hahaha that applies to north Florida too!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
thegibson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:37 PM   #24135
thegibson
old hand
 
thegibson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,338
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Unless you are playing any limit game. Then the avg age is about 85.
Do you play limit?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
thegibson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:37 PM   #24136
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
So we aren't talking about actual win rates. We are talking about what we think potential win rate ceilings are?
That's what I was talking about. As I said, I really think ceilings are higher than those numbers I listed. I know what my win rates are and I know there are people better than me....so there you go.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:38 PM   #24137
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by thegibson View Post
Do you play limit?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
I played 8/16 OE once while waiting for 2/5 NL. Does that count?
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:39 PM   #24138
thegibson
old hand
 
thegibson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,338
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I played 8/16 OE once while waiting for 2/5 NL. Does that count?
85 average is crazy high. You see about 3 flops per dealer lol

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
thegibson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:47 PM   #24139
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
12bb/hour X $3/bb X 1,000 hours = $36,000

you are in your own world in thinking that most players who make even half of that $ are sticking around 1/3. i really just don't understand how you don't get this and continually come back to it.
Pretty sure I've answered this before, but:

1) Lots of people only have one stake to choose from (my room, like many, only runs one stake 99% of the time).

2) As far as I see it, your argument is actually reason to believe we'd see *more* long term crushing lowest stakes winrates, not less. I'm pretty sure there are quite a few people who would simply stay where they were if they're destroying their current level risk / stress free. Not to say there aren't those who move up for various reasons, but I'm guessing even quite a lot in that boat would move back down if they found the risk / stress / reward not nearly as enticing as their easy peasy game.

GcluelessstakesnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 05:57 PM   #24140
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,921
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
2) As far as I see it, your argument is actually reason to believe we'd see *more* long term crushing lowest stakes winrates, not less. I'm pretty sure there are quite a few people who would simply stay where they were if they're destroying their current level risk / stress free. Not to say there aren't those who move up for various reasons, but I'm guessing even quite a lot in that boat would move back down if they found the risk / stress / reward not nearly as enticing as their easy peasy game.

GcluelessstakesnoobG
because poker players have shown to be a risk adverse and rational thinking group of people time and time again...

if you're making 10+bb/hour at a lower stake, there isn't much difference in play between the one above you and the one your at now. you might not crush right off the bat, but chances are, you're gonna be ok at that higher stake for a better $/hr overall. 10bb/hr at 1/3 = 6bb/hr at 2/5.
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 06:15 PM   #24141
c0rnBr34d
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,250
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
I don't have a dog in this fight and have no interest in arguing for either side but here are my results at 1/2 and 1/3 before I moved up to higher stakes

1/2NL: 826 hrs, +21,026 for 12.73bb/hr
1/3NL: 98 hrs, +5,950 for 20.24bb/hr

Weighted average BB = 2.106

Totals: 924 hours, +26,976 for 13.87bb/hr

https://imgur.com/a/iTJq2y4

sorry its only 924 hours instead of 1k+ but it's all I can provide

now I play higher stakes (barely, almost no volume anymore) and am on a ~700 hour break even stretch. poker, variance, blah blah

also I was bad at poker for a lot of these hours (prob still am) so I was certainly on a heater for those curious.
Thanks for sharing this.
c0rnBr34d is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 06:30 PM   #24142
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Dizzy is a very good player, but Id be willing to bet he would have no problem admitting that he made his share of mistakes looking back....and he still hit close to my 15BB/hr number at 1/2 or 1/3.

Another thing I said was that if a top 2/5 player had financial reason to do so (like some big prop bet) that he could go back down to 1/2 and play 1000 hours and hit or break 15BB/hr. Id be willing bet that Dizzy would be on that list.

Whoever thinks those number are impossible are some of the people I was talking about when I said they are close minded and playing too ABC.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 06:51 PM   #24143
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I beat 1/2 for 18.5 BB/hr in 2015. Could I still do that today? I don't know. I'm sure I ran hot and the games were most likely softer than today but I don't play 1/2 so idk. What I do know is I won't spend 1000 hours to find out.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 07:28 PM   #24144
c0rnBr34d
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,250
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
I beat 1/2 for 18.5 BB/hr in 2015. Could I still do that today? I don't know. I'm sure I ran hot and the games were most likely softer than today but I don't play 1/2 so idk. What I do know is I won't spend 1000 hours to find out.
How popular is this thread? I'm just wondering if there are enough interested people here who could subsidize this experiment if you (or any of the well known crushers) were willing to take such a deal. The delta between 12 BB/hr @ 2/5 and 15 BB/hr @ 1/2 is $30/hr. If we had 50 people willing to donate $200 to the cause we could subsidize 333 hours of this 1/2 experiment. This topic is so nebulous I'd be willing to throw a couple bucks at it but I'm probably in a super minority here. Would be an epic experiment / PG&C thread though.
c0rnBr34d is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 07:53 PM   #24145
zica
adept
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 944
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Depends on when and where I play and what season it is. When the snowbirds come back the avg age rises dramatically as do win rates. People have no idea how seasonal S. Florida is unless you experience it. My win rate is about 50% higher during snowbird season. They might as well change the name of S. Florida to Nittsburgh during the summer.
Thanks for this. It gives good insight into just how much the difference in skill level can effect results tho I think we're talking about the most dramatic difference available; that of age. I remember playing in a pool of old(but less old) rocks and only doing about 3.5bb/hour: Now my pool is older and not rocky but just too loose pre and too passive post.
zica is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 09:16 PM   #24146
ES2
adept
 
ES2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 995
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
So whats your point? That my win rate ceilings are impossible to reach? Or that you dont know anyone that does it? Or that only the top 0.1% can do it? What exactly?
I don't have a point beyond what I've mentioned. I would just like to get as realistic a picture of what true win rates can be as possible.

I'll always be skeptical of the higher numbers, like I would be with Amway guys, Uber drivers, bar tenders, etc. I'd like to be wrong on this though, cuz, as I said, I wouldn't mind making 6 figures as the second best 2/5 player at the table, earning a mere 10 or 11 bb.

Maybe the typical 1/3 rec really does lose $58/hr. It seems very high, but I don't really know. Maybe I figured it wrong. It's a part of the puzzle though. The money has to come from somewhere. You can't tell me more money is coming out than going in.

The market equilibrium thing continues to be a sticking point. We've seen it over the years with, well, Uber is a good example. At first, people DID crush it. Now there are way too many drivers. I'm not an expert but it seems like it used to be fairly easy to make a killing reselling on e-bay, but now it's hard because a million people moved in. Being a youtuber, kind of the same thing. Why not poker?

I'm not smart enough to know when outliers are just examples of survivorship bias. Being in the top .1% of poker players certainly wouldn't be. Maybe being in the top .1% of grinders, or long term winners? Maybe someone gooder at math could chime in.

I do think there's probably a distinction between saying, what would a perfect poker cyborg make, or even what would phil ivey make, vs saying what you'd make as one of the very best players in your pool. If "cieling" means the cyborg rate, then yeah, it could be pretty damn high.
ES2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2019, 11:56 PM   #24147
QuantumSurfer
old hand
 
QuantumSurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Home on the Range
Posts: 1,944
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Dizzy is a very good player, but Id be willing to bet he would have no problem admitting that he made his share of mistakes looking back....and he still hit close to my 15BB/hr number at 1/2 or 1/3.

Another thing I said was that if a top 2/5 player had financial reason to do so (like some big prop bet) that he could go back down to 1/2 and play 1000 hours and hit or break 15BB/hr. Id be willing bet that Dizzy would be on that list.

Whoever thinks those number are impossible are some of the people I was talking about when I said they are close minded and playing too ABC.
My past 2035 hours have averaged me ~$39/hr playing mostly 1k cap. Often there are UTG straddles so, it's sometimes 100bb, not 200 as advertised, and I've also ran well in the ~100 hrs of straight 5/10 I've played (~123/hr), but I gotta agree that overall, true possibilities are closer to what Mike's saying than what we might experience ourselves. It's hard for me to think of a single session where I didn't wish I played at least one hand a bit differently, and I can easily account for at least $10k I gave up with just oddball spews/hero downs in specific, documented hands. Overall, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that I gave up near 30Gs of potential in that 2k hr stretch. Strat aside, much of that is mental leaks. I'll run hot and make a dumb call/bluff, or I've been running hot and make a bad fold or don't go for value because I think I can't be running good for this long. Conversely, I'm just now making a strong comeback from a 500hr+ BE stretch. 350 hr of that was basically taking pure losses. I know I made plenty of ******ed errors overvaluing overpairs, saying to myself "they gotta hold up at some point." Then, I've had sessions where I was just trying to make a hand since I perceived nothing as working and lost chips by underbluffing. On the strat side then, I know I leak a bunch of $ defending bb improperly, or defending 3b OOP. All that leads to further errors post, obviously. Anyways, all I'm saying is that this game has a lot of unseen potential. It's impossible to always play perfect as a normal human being. However, being imperfect, we often assume that we are, which leads to a drop in improvement. Sometimes, we just run hot too & profit despite our bad play, not because of it. Also, this community is made of people playing in the softest NL games out there. We play live low stakes. These games are softer than any micro stakes found on the interwebz (maybe some of the new Chinese apps excluded), so perhaps the groupthink created here isn't necessarily the best. I've been on 2+2 for a while but I didn't really see major improvements in my game 'till I solicited paid advice. I mean, there are posters on here that I respect & learn from, but not many of us are seasoned professionals, so a lot of the threads here are kinda like the blind leading the blind. ...Ummm... didn't think I'd be typing this stream of consciousness right now, but yeah I think 2/3 and below is and will always be super soft, it's just that skilled players who can crush at the clip Mike stated don't have the incentive to play so low. Places that don't have 2/5+ running regularly don't have any pros in the games at all, so if one did sit in, it'd be lights out.
QuantumSurfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2019, 10:47 AM   #24148
Dizzyqtp
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dizzyqtp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 7,384
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
don't overhype yourself. you're hourly is actually 13.86bb/hr we round down, son.

j/k, thats some solid work.
thx - this is back when i knew how to win lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d View Post
Thanks for sharing this.
np!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Dizzy is a very good player, but Id be willing to bet he would have no problem admitting that he made his share of mistakes looking back....and he still hit close to my 15BB/hr number at 1/2 or 1/3.

Another thing I said was that if a top 2/5 player had financial reason to do so (like some big prop bet) that he could go back down to 1/2 and play 1000 hours and hit or break 15BB/hr. Id be willing bet that Dizzy would be on that list.

Whoever thinks those number are impossible are some of the people I was talking about when I said they are close minded and playing too ABC.
Certainly made a lot of mistakes. Was I on a heater? most likely. Could I have played better? certainly. I don't care to argue what I think realistic win-rates are, just posting my personal results as a data set for the forum.

Of course GG constantly posts about needing to see results, no one can post a graph, etc and then completely ignores it whenever someone does. smh.

---

at the end of the day variance in live poker is crazy, sample sizes are small, and game conditions are vastly different for different people/locations. for all of those reasons I don't really get the desire to argue about win-rates.

just play the best you can and don't take anything for granted. as you see, I crushed 1/2 and 1/3 for ~1k hours - then moved up and crushed both 2/5 and 5/T for another 1k+ hours. Now I am in the middle of a large downswing that is the result of a variety of different things and am break-even over the last 700 hours. poker can be crazy sometimes and the mental side is tough for anyone.
Dizzyqtp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2019, 02:39 PM   #24149
Twentythrees
journeyman
 
Twentythrees's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 239
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
thx - this is back when i knew how to win lol







np!







Certainly made a lot of mistakes. Was I on a heater? most likely. Could I have played better? certainly. I don't care to argue what I think realistic win-rates are, just posting my personal results as a data set for the forum.



Of course GG constantly posts about needing to see results, no one can post a graph, etc and then completely ignores it whenever someone does. smh.



---



at the end of the day variance in live poker is crazy, sample sizes are small, and game conditions are vastly different for different people/locations. for all of those reasons I don't really get the desire to argue about win-rates.



just play the best you can and don't take anything for granted. as you see, I crushed 1/2 and 1/3 for ~1k hours - then moved up and crushed both 2/5 and 5/T for another 1k+ hours. Now I am in the middle of a large downswing that is the result of a variety of different things and am break-even over the last 700 hours. poker can be crazy sometimes and the mental side is tough for anyone.
Ty for posting your data. 700 hours be, what the hell! I didn't think something like that was possible for a crusher! Do you think the massive downswing has tilted you in such a way you couldn't pull your A game anymore?

Gesendet von meinem CLT-L09 mit Tapatalk
Twentythrees is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2019, 03:13 PM   #24150
Dizzyqtp
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dizzyqtp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 7,384
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

lol I am not calling myself a crusher that's for sure.

the downswing is due to a mix of things. I have certainty ran much worse than I used to, especially in big pots - but poor play is a substantial part of it as well.

I also now play a fraction of the volume that I used to due to other factors in life (positive for life, negative for poker) so my game just isn't as sharp and I'm not as mentally in it when I do play. And when you aren't winning/playing well, it is hard to find reasons to put in more hours vs less.

At my peak I played 808 hrs in a calendar year; the next year I played 367; and YTD have only played 149 (all w/ full-time job). I would like to pick it back up at some point and grind out of the downswing but it is a tough task while playing such a small amount of hours.
Dizzyqtp is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive